Investment Outlook - Investment in 2026 is expected to have the highest relative elasticity, with a potential growth rebound from a low base of -3.8% in 2025 to around 3%, indicating an elasticity of 6-7 percentage points[9] - Guangdong province plans to invest 1.05 trillion yuan in key projects for 2026, up from 1 trillion yuan in both 2025 and 2024, signaling a commitment to effective investment[10] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rates for January and February are estimated at 4.91% and 4.59% respectively, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.75% for the first two months[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for the same period is projected at 4.39%[4] Market Trends - Global asset narratives are converging, with a shift towards "non-growth" assets and a return to "old economy" sectors, as evidenced by a 2.5% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average[13] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index has dropped to an extreme fear level of -210, indicating heightened market caution[14] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver have experienced high volatility, with gold prices averaging $1,948 per ounce, down 0.68% for the week, while silver prices fell 27.38%[15] - Domestic gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 98.22 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[34] Currency and Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased to 4.22%, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by June rising to 49.2%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, closing at 97.61, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.59% against the dollar[18] Sector Performance - Consumer sectors led the A-share market, with significant gains in food and beverage, while technology and resource sectors faced pressure[19] - The overall A-share index saw a decline of 1.49%, with nearly 60% of sectors recording losses, particularly in metals and electronics[22]

★下周观点：持仓过节 周度报告——股指期货 高位题材回撤，股市切向低位 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a贵ry]金属与科技齐跌 股 指 期 货 本周（02/02-02/06）以美元计价的全球股市收跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 0.14%，其中发达市场（+0.03%）>新兴市场（-1.42%）> 前沿市场（-1.77%）。印度股市涨 3.08%跑赢全球，韩国股市跌 5.06%全球表现最差。中国权益下跌，分市场看，中概股>A 股> 港股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 24069 亿元，环比上周（30636 亿元)缩量 6567 亿元。A 股宽基指数多数下跌，其中微盘股指数 涨 2.35%表现最好，科创 50 指数跌 5.76%表现较弱。本周 A 股 中信一级行业中共 15 个上涨（上周 10 个），15 个下跌（上周 20 个）。涨幅最大的行业为食品饮料（+4.44%），跌幅最大的 行业为有色金属（-8.46%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下 行，1Y 上行，利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指 数的 ETF 份额本周减少 11 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减 少 16 亿份。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 08 日 系统谋划重点领域重大项目投资，发挥央国企 扩投资作用 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20260202-20260206） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 评 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.81%，沪深 300 指 数-1.33%，相对收益为-0.48pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为装饰 幕墙（+2.17%）、钢结构（+2.05%）、生态 ...

投资一直是拉动经济增长的重要手段。 2月6日，国务院常务会议研究促进有效投资政策措施，明确要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预 算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。在基础设施、城市更 新、公共服务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域，深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。 新年伊始，高层就对有效投资工作作出系统部署，会议传递出通过高质量投资稳增长、增后劲的清晰信 号。 国务院常务会议此时研究促进有效投资，具有特殊意义。 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，这既是为五年发展蓝图提供关键"启动引擎"，也是应对当前经济形 势、夯实增长基础的关键之年。 投资是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一，在扩内需、促发展中仍然发挥着关键性作用。 会议明确提出"促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用"，这一表述将有效投资置 于经济工作的重要位置。与以往相比，此次会议对投资工作的定位更加明确。 2025年年末召开的中央经济工作会议提出要"推动投资止跌回稳"，提出"适当增加中央预算内投资规 模""继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用"。 此次会议亮出了中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of making wise decisions in investing, highlighting that knowing what to do and what to avoid is crucial for wealth accumulation [4]. Group 1: Effective Actions - The first key action is to identify what is effective and repeat it. Successful investors like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett focus on holding quality investments over the long term, such as Coca-Cola and American Express, which have solidified Berkshire Hathaway's market position [5][6]. - Munger advocates for extensive reading across various fields, stating that it broadens one's understanding and enhances decision-making capabilities. He believes that reading is a powerful tool for personal and financial growth [6]. - Continuous learning and refining one's thinking process are essential. Munger emphasizes the need to develop a personal investment system by studying successful investors and creating a variety of mental models to tackle challenges [8]. Group 2: Avoiding Ineffective Actions - The second key action is to discover what is ineffective and avoid it. Munger believes that identifying unproductive activities is more important than merely being busy. He advises against engaging in low-level social interactions that do not provide intellectual stimulation [11][12]. - Munger warns against blind busyness, likening it to a game of musical chairs where those who are overly busy often miss opportunities. He stresses the importance of patience and focusing on familiar industries rather than chasing fleeting trends [15]. - Avoiding the sunk cost fallacy is crucial. Munger shares his experience with a failed investment in a shoe company, illustrating that clinging to past investments can lead to greater losses. He advocates for recognizing when to cut losses and move on [17][20]. Group 3: Wealth Accumulation Philosophy - Munger's philosophy on wealth accumulation is that it is not about the quantity of actions taken but the quality of decisions made. He uses the example of Westinghouse Electric, which failed due to overextending into unfamiliar areas, to illustrate the importance of sticking to what one knows [20]. - The article concludes that consistent, thoughtful actions lead to wealth. Munger suggests that individuals should strive to be slightly smarter each day and focus on their responsibilities to gradually build wealth [24].

国务院常务会 · 要创新完善政策措施,加力提效用好中央预 算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项 债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。 · 要结合制定实施"十五五"规划,着眼于长 远发展需要和构筑未来竞争优势,在基础 设施、城市更新、公共服务、新兴产业和未 来产业等重点领域,深入谋划推动一批重 大项目、重大工程。 · 要更好发挥央国企扩投资作用, 加大力度支 持民间投资发展,形成促进有效投资的合 F /Jo 2026 / 02 / 06 研究促进有效投资政策措施 会议指出,促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、 增强发展后劲具有重要作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying investment policies to stabilize economic growth and enhance development momentum, focusing on effective investment measures and innovative financial tools [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Policies - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasizes the importance of effective investment for economic stability and future competitiveness, planning to enhance the use of central budget investments, long-term special bonds, and local government bonds [2]. - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 48,518.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year, highlighting the need for policies to reverse this trend [2]. - The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for 2026 has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects in industrial and energy sectors, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Project Focus Areas - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized a list of priority projects for 2026, with a funding scale of about 295 billion yuan, focusing on urban infrastructure, agricultural development, and logistics cost reduction [3]. - The government plans to allocate over 750 billion yuan for public projects in urban renewal, water conservancy, ecological protection, and pollution control, emphasizing the role of government investment in guiding and stimulating the economy [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Investment Efficiency - The NDRC aims to improve investment efficiency by promoting both physical and human capital, with a focus on projects that directly invest in people [4]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has outlined plans for state-owned enterprises to increase effective investment, particularly in infrastructure and emerging industries, to support sustainable development [4]. Group 4: Supporting Private Investment - A comprehensive policy package was launched on January 20 to stimulate private investment, including loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises and risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprise bonds [5]. - The Ministry of Finance highlights that stimulating private investment is a key focus of the new policies, which aim to lower financing costs and reduce barriers for private enterprises [6].

转自：新华财经 •李强主持召开国务院常务会议 研究促进有效投资政策措施 •虚拟货币监管再升级 人民银行等八部门联合印发通知 重申虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动 •预制菜将迎首个国标 重点从食品安全和营养健康方面对预制菜作出规定 •国务院总理李强2月6日主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大四次会议审议的政府工作报告稿和"十五五"规划纲要草案稿。李强指 出，要坚持远近结合，扎实推动高质量发展。进一步加强年度工作和五年规划的衔接，将中长期目标任务落实到年度工作部署中。要注重整体规划和重点突 破相结合，围绕规划纲要高质量编制各领域专项规划，深入谋划实施一批重大举措、重大项目，特别是要在发展新质生产力、做强国内大循环、促进居民增 收等方面取得更大突破。要注重前瞻布局，坚持脚踏实地，在实践中不断塑造引领未来的发展新优势。（新华社） •国务院总理李强2月6日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进有效投资政策措施。会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作 用。要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。要结合制定实施"十五 ...

听取2025年国务院部门办理全国人大代表建议和全国政协提案工作情况汇报 李强主持召开国务院常务会议 会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用。要创新完善政策措施，加力 提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。要结合 制定实施"十五五"规划，着眼于长远发展需要和构筑未来竞争优势，在基础设施、城市更新、公共服 务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域，深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。要更好发挥央国企扩投 资作用，加大力度支持民间投资发展，形成促进有效投资的合力。 会议指出，经过不懈努力，近年来我国空气质量显著改善，人民群众获得感不断增强。新修订的《环境 空气质量标准》对PM2.5年均浓度目标提出更高要求。要坚持规划引领，强化政策配套，对标新标准做 好统筹衔接，完善财政、金融、科技、价格等支持政策，加强重点区域治理和联防联控，持续提升治理 效能，守护好美丽蓝天。 会议讨论并原则通过《中华人民共和国招标投标法（修订草案）》，决定将草案提请全国人大常委会审 议。会议指出，要以本次修法为契机，改革完善招标投标体制机制，破除隐性壁垒，改进评标办法，提 高工作透 ...

会议讨论并原则通过《中华人民共和国招标投标法（修订草案）》，决定将草案提请全国人大常委会审 议。会议指出，要以本次修法为契机，改革完善招标投标体制机制，破除隐性壁垒，改进评标办法，提 高工作透明度，严厉打击违法活动，标本兼治促进招标投标市场规范健康发展。 会议还研究了其他事项。 表委员意见建议，在抓落实促转化上下功夫，高质量做好今年建议提案办理工作。 会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用。要创新完善政策措施，加力 提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。要结合 制定实施"十五五"规划，着眼于长远发展需要和构筑未来竞争优势，在基础设施、城市更新、公共服 务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域，深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。要更好发挥央国企扩投 资作用，加大力度支持民间投资发展，形成促进有效投资的合力。 会议指出，经过不懈努力，近年来我国空气质量显著改善，人民群众获得感不断增强。新修订的《环境 空气质量标准》对PM2.5年均浓度目标提出更高要求。要坚持规划引领，强化政策配套，对标新标准做 好统筹衔接，完善财政、金融、科技、价格等支持政策，加强 ...