有色金属基差
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20250925申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250925
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:29
Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily update on the basis of non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, etc., and offers short - term price trend views and strategies [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Copper may have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 3.31%. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia led to a reduced supply expectation. The concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and the smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss, but the smelting output has continued to grow. The power industry has positive growth, the PV rush - installation has increased sharply year - on - year, and the future growth rate may slow down. The auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, which will support the copper price in the long term [2] - Zinc may have short - term wide - range weak - side fluctuations. The night - session zinc price rose 0.62%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has generally recovered, the smelting profit has turned positive, and the smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. The infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has a small positive growth, the auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 25 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 10,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 31.37 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 144,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 400 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 20,705 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 5.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 513,850 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,845 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 105 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: 59.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 45,775 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,050 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 121,250 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 1,250 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 15,435 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 178.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 230,454 tons, LME inventory daily change: 1,554 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 115 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 40.08 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 219,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,700 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 271,650 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 960 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 34,315 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 105.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 2,575 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 5 tons [2]
20250919申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250919
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:30
Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weakly downward fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2] Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose 0.1%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues high growth. Power industry shows positive growth, PV rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose 0.09%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth is slightly positive, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Short - term supply - demand may lean towards surplus, and zinc prices may have range - bound and weakly downward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data Domestic Futures and Basis | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 79,620 | 30 | | Aluminum | 20,775 | - 20 | | Zinc | 22,035 | - 65 | | Nickel | 120,940 | - 1,630 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 120 | | Tin | 269,100 | 3,060 | [2] LME Data | Variety | LME 3 - month Previous Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 9,946 | - 71.09 | 149,775 | - 1,175 | | Aluminum | 2,705 | 4.89 | 483,775 | 0 | | Zinc | 2,913 | 24.27 | 48,975 | 0 | | Nickel | 15,335 | - 177.83 | 228,468 | 2,034 | | Lead | 2,004 | - 44.05 | 225,350 | - 2,500 | | Tin | 33,750 | - 155.00 | 2,645 | 0 | [2]
20250918申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250918
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the intersection of multiple factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience a wide - range and weakening fluctuation in the short term as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.84% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed signals: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,974 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 71.13 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 150,950 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,675 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.76% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,943 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 24.36 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 48,975 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,175 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,690 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 1.74 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 483,775 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,790 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 870 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 189.18 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 226,434 tons, with a daily increase of 1,950 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 46.43 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 227,850 tons, with a daily increase of 2,225 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 272,540 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,320 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,390 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 167.02 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,645 tons, with no daily change [2]
20250916申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250916
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, and weak real estate [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and weak real estate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV installations (future growth may slow), automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 81,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,189 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 61.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 153,950 tons with a daily decrease of 225 tons [2]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,235 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,982 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 26.76 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 50,525 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,925 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,705 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 4.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 485,275 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,500 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 460 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 185.68 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 225,084 tons with a daily increase of 1,932 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 47.54 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 229,575 tons with a daily decrease of 3,050 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 275,090 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 34,680 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 132.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,620 tons with a daily increase of 235 tons [2].
20250915申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250915
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 03:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Weekend night - session copper prices dropped 0.31%. With tight concentrate supply and pressured smelting profits, smelting output still shows high growth. Multiple factors such as power industry growth, possible slowdown in PV growth, positive growth in auto production and sales, slowing home appliance output growth, and weak real estate make the copper market have both positive and negative factors [2]. - Zinc prices may have a short - term wide - range and weak - trend fluctuation. Weekend night - session zinc prices dropped 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and smelting profits are turning positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price Performance - Copper: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 81,360 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,068 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 73.42 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 154,175 tons, with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,701 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 6.35 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 485,275 tons, with no change [2]. - Zinc: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,956 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 30.17 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 50,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 200 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,330 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,391 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 171.20 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 223,152 tons, with a daily increase of 2,058 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,018 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 41.16 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 232,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 273,180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,300 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 34,955 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 34.98 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,385 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].
20250911申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250911
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range as there are both bullish and bearish factors. Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%. The concentrate supply is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, and short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 79,780 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 10,013 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 56.61 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 155,275 tons, down 550 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output is growing strongly. The power industry has positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year with potential slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range, and investors should focus on the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 22,140 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,888 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 23.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 51,025 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 20,790 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,622 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 2.92 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 485,275 tons with no change [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 120,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,740 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 15,146 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 182.88 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 218,070 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 16,760 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 1,987 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 44.17 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 270,250 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 34,635 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 27.00 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 2,355 tons, up 75 tons [2].
20250905申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250905
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as the supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and certain downstream demand trends [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. Downstream, the power industry shows positive growth, but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance output growth is slowing; and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous growth in smelting output. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 79,800 | 135 | 9,898 | - 67.16 | 158,575 | - 200 | | Aluminum | 20,620 | - 10 | 2,590 | 3.51 | 479,600 | 0 | | Zinc | 22,100 | - 65 | 2,838 | 16.21 | 55,225 | - 375 | | Nickel | 120,650 | - 1,030 | 15,236 | - 179.22 | 214,230 | 3,996 | | Lead | 16,805 | - 125 | 1,986 | - 44.77 | 254,550 | - 3,475 | | Tin | 271,820 | 1,850 | 34,425 | 97.50 | 2,195 | 20 | [2]
20250904申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250904
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of factors including tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and diverse downstream demand trends [2]. - Zinc prices may show short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night - session copper prices rose. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow. Downstream, the power industry has positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 80,070 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,976 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 66.89 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 158,775 tons with a daily change of - 100 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices declined. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,230 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,870 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 18.78 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 55,600 tons with a daily change of - 275 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,700 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,614 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 3.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 479,600 tons with a daily change of - 1,450 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,140 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,304 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 186.59 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 210,234 tons with a daily change of 390 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,820 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 125 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,996 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.09 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 258,025 tons with a daily change of - 1,525 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 272,700 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 650 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 34,620 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 87.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,175 tons with a daily change of 20 tons [2].
20250902申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250902
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:29
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as the supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with rising smelting output and mixed downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - The night - session copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Power industry shows positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 220 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 9,884 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 86.27 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory is 158,900 tons with a daily increase of 950 tons [2]. Zinc - The night - session zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,150 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 14.98 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory is 56,500 tons with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,620 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 481,050 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 123,220 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,439 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 183.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 209,544 tons with a daily decrease of 132 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,810 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,004 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 42.47 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 261,050 tons with a daily decrease of 1,450 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,900 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 640 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 35,060 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 148.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,010 tons with a daily increase of 115 tons [2].
20250901申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250901
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 02:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed trends: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,902 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 80.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 157,950 tons with a daily increase of 1,850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 6.12 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 58,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,765 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 2.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 481,150 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,421 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 174.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 209,676 tons with a daily increase of 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,991 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 41.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 262,500 tons with a daily decrease of 4,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 278,300 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,530 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,950 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 175.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,895 tons with a daily decrease of 30 tons [2].