Core Viewpoint - The platinum group metals (PGMs) have shown significant activity, with platinum and palladium prices rising sharply following previous increases in gold and silver prices. Platinum futures closed at 482.40 yuan/gram, while palladium futures surged over 4% to 407.60 yuan/gram. The driving factors behind this rise include macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiments, ongoing supply-demand imbalances, and high basis and price spreads [2][9]. Fundamental Analysis - **Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Support**: The Federal Reserve's easing expectations remain unaltered post-rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks have provided upward momentum for PGMs after strong performances in gold and silver [2][9]. - **Ongoing Supply-Demand Imbalances**: The London platinum and palladium borrowing rates have risen again, leading to tighter liquidity in the spot market. The marginal increase in palladium ETF holdings has further tightened investment demand, reinforcing price upward momentum [2][9]. - **High Basis and Price Spreads**: Currently, both platinum and palladium basis and domestic-international price spreads are at elevated levels. Continuous accumulation of physical inventory by arbitrage funds has driven up spot prices, which in turn has affected the futures market [2][9]. Correlation with Gold - The correlation between PGMs and gold is primarily due to their collective status as precious metals. Market sentiment towards precious metals can be influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical judgments. In the context of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical factors, the sentiment towards the entire precious metals sector remains strong [11]. - However, there are notable differences between gold and PGMs. From a financial perspective, gold is superior to platinum, which in turn is superior to palladium. Conversely, in terms of industrial applications, palladium leads, followed by platinum and then gold [11][4]. - Generally, when investors seek safety and certainty, gold is favored for its stability. In contrast, during economic recovery or industrial demand booms, platinum and palladium are more attractive due to their strong industrial demand. PGMs can serve as a complement to gold investments, enhancing portfolio flexibility but may involve higher volatility risks [11][4].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/15 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 93630 11919 7.73 三月 94170 11898 7.89 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.01 -1469.82 现货出口 1046.05 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23690 3283 7.22 三月 23635 3192 5.36 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.42 -3937.82 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22050 2863 7.70 三月 22170 2896 7.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.30 -1719.93 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118200 14444 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.11 -1091.76 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 | 国内价格 | | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that raw sugar prices have rebounded due to short sellers covering their positions, with the March contract closing at 14.50 cents, maintaining support despite previous downward pressure [1] - The focus is now on the resistance level at 15.30 cents, where a successful breach could indicate a depletion of buying momentum [1] - Domestic spot markets remain weak, with overall trading activity being low, suggesting that some inventory is being used to fill supply gaps, influenced by the realization of profits from futures-spot arbitrage [1] Group 2 - In the Liuzhou market, the contract for 26013 experienced increased volatility and trading volume, with the closing price around 5340, indicating that sellers are reducing positions while referencing strong resistance [1] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with expectations of a potential pullback after any upward movement [1] - The 2601 sugar futures contract saw a rebound amid reduced positions, with the hourly level approaching a significant resistance at 5380, and attention is now on the strength of the rebound at the minute level [1]

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跨品种套利跟踪 2025/12/09 | 铜/锌 | 铜/铝 | 铜/铅 | 铝/锌 | 铝/铅 | 铅/锌 | 3.99 | 4.16 | 5.37 | 0.96 | 1.29 | 0.74 | 沪（三连） | 3.73 | 4.03 | 5.82 | 0.93 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 伦（三连） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 免责声明: | 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 | 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 | 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 | 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1820 1860 1840 1760 理论价差 557 1012 1475 1939 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 485 495 515 505 理论价差 217 340 463 586 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 290 345 360 375 理论价差 221 344 466 588 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 70 85 110 120 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 450 610 860 1100 锡 5-1 价差 530 理论价差 6540 期现套利跟踪 2025/12/08 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -565 1255 理论价差 138 909 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -300 185 理论价差 137 272 免责声明: 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -30 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：上行动力不足，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00价差短期走弱 -2000 - ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/05 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 91250 11526 7.75 三月 91020 11476 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1611.35 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22980 3302 6.96 三月 22905 3060 5.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.43 -4870.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22010 2868 7.68 三月 22115 2899 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1844.30 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 14694 8.19 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1266.98 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17150 1966 8.70 三月 17235 2005 11.43 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 39.38 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, reaching a historical high of over $57 per ounce, coinciding with a significant trading disruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) due to a cooling system failure at a data center, leading to speculation about market manipulation to protect market makers from potential losses [6][25][33] Group 1: CME Incident - On November 28, CME announced a trading halt due to a cooling issue at the CyrusOne data center, which lasted for 9 hours and affected various markets including gold, silver, and U.S. Treasury futures, with nominal contract values reaching several hundred million dollars [7][25][29] - The incident disrupted the price discovery process in global derivatives markets, causing significant volatility and widening spreads in gold and silver [7][26] - Analysts noted that the timing of the CME outage, coinciding with a spike in silver prices, led to discussions about potential market manipulation to protect exposed market makers [8][26] Group 2: Market Maker Risks - Market makers, who provide liquidity, faced extreme risks during the silver price surge due to their reliance on real-time hedging, which became ineffective in a rapidly moving market [9][27] - The concentration of short positions among market makers during a one-sided market led to significant losses as they accumulated large amounts of losing positions [10][28] - The volatility index for silver options surged by 12.74% on November 28, indicating heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for hedging [10][29] Group 3: Historical Context - The speculation surrounding CME's actions is reminiscent of past incidents where exchanges intervened during extreme market conditions, such as the nickel trading halt by the London Metal Exchange (LME) in March 2022 [12][31] - Historical events involving silver, such as the Hunt brothers' market manipulation in the 1970s, highlight the potential for liquidity crises in commodity markets [12][32] Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent surge in silver prices, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, raises questions about whether this trend will continue or if it marks a turning point [15][33] - Analysts suggest that the tightness in silver supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties may support prices, but caution against potential volatility due to speculative profit-taking [16][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 2, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the domestic spot price was 89280, the LME spot price was 11311, and the spot ratio was 7.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 1332.99. The domestic March price was 89320, the LME March price was 11242, and the ratio was 7.93 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22550, the LME spot price was 3334, and the spot ratio was 6.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a profit of - 5558.00. The domestic March price was 22620, the LME March price was 3066, and the ratio was 5.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21730, the LME spot price was 2852, and the spot ratio was 7.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a profit of - 1955.44. The domestic March price was 21900, the LME March price was 2880, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14698, and the spot ratio was 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 1597.05 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, the LME spot price was 1941, and the spot ratio was 8.75. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.69, with a profit of 117.55. The domestic March price was 17055, the LME March price was 1983, and the ratio was 11.37 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 1810, 1850, 1820, and 1710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 539, 977, 1423, and 1869 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 205, 235, 250, and 270 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 265, 300, 310, and 320 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 20, 0, 25, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1120, 1330, 1510, and 1800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 330, and the theoretical spread was 6322 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1725 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 36 and 792 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 165 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 264 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 137 and 250 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.95, 4.08, 5.24, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.63, 3.89, 5.62, 0.93, 1.45, and 0.65 respectively [5]