关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 重点推介 热点思考：开年经济与政策的"新变化" 1. 开年生产景气有何新变化？ 1月制造业生产景气大幅回落，或与春运返乡前置有关；春运开启后，劳务输出大省的迁入强度、用工 大省的迁出强度上行。但近两月平均看，生产景气仍延续前期的修复态势。 2. 需求层面有何亮点？ 2026年春节滞后于2月拉长节前"抢出口"窗口期，或令年初出口景气延续。内需方面，春节假期偏长叠 加多地提前布局春节消费下，社零或有阶段性反弹；"十五五"适度超前新基建的要求，叠加增量政策的 支撑下，投资或有适度改善。 3. 政策有何积极信号？ 地产最艰难的时段或已过去，多维度政策着力稳定房地产市场运行。多部委加强政策协同，财政与金融 政策联动发力，重点围绕消费、设备投资、民营经济。地方政策部署时点前移，如部分地区"新年第一 会"前置至元旦后，推动全年工作早启动。 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、热点思考 | 日债"豪赌"：选举后"高市财政"的约束——"大财政"系列之四 2、热点思考 | 积极因素正在累积 1、海外高频 | 欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨 2、政策高频 | 中 ...

Core Insights - The Qianhai Cooperation Zone has achieved significant economic growth, with GDP increasing from 175.57 billion to 331.81 billion, nearly doubling, and import-export volume rising from 378.05 billion to 757.43 billion, also doubling [1] - The modern service industry value added has exceeded 218.2 billion, showing over 100% growth, indicating robust economic vitality and competitiveness [1] Economic Indicators - The total area of Qianhai has expanded from 14.92 square kilometers to 120.56 square kilometers over the past five years, providing strong momentum for high-quality development [1] - Fixed asset investment in Qianhai has surpassed 700 billion, with actual foreign investment reaching 157.52 billion, of which 29.32 billion in 2025 accounted for 58.1% of Shenzhen's total [1] Business Environment - Qianhai has attracted 11,065 Hong Kong-funded enterprises and over 10,000 Hong Kong residents for employment, with 26 categories of Hong Kong and Macau professionals allowed to practice without taking mainland qualification exams [1] - A total of 183 Fortune Global 500 companies have established a presence in Qianhai, fostering 42 regional and functional headquarters for global service providers, making it a preferred investment destination for foreign capital in South China [1] Industry Development - Qianhai is accelerating the establishment of a modern industrial system characterized by its unique features and comparative advantages, with the service industry achieving both scale and quality improvements [2] - By 2025, the service industry value added is expected to account for 78.1% of GDP, with modern service industry value added making up 84.2% of the service industry value added, nearing the global benchmark of "double 80%" [2] Emerging Industries - New industries in Qianhai are forming a gradient cultivation and collaborative development pattern, with the software and information service industry cluster generating over 200 billion in revenue, joining the billion-dollar club [2] - Seven industry clusters, including digital creativity, artificial intelligence, marine economy, low-altitude economy, aerospace, new energy, and smart terminals, have each surpassed 50 billion in revenue, positioning Qianhai as a core engine for high-quality development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new changes in the economy and policies at the beginning of the year, highlighting shifts in production, demand, and policy signals that may impact investment opportunities and economic recovery. Group 1: Changes in Production - Manufacturing production has significantly declined in January, possibly due to the early return of laborers before the Spring Festival. However, the average production sentiment over the past two months continues to show a recovery trend [1]. Group 2: Demand Highlights - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 may extend the "export rush" window at the beginning of the year, potentially sustaining export sentiment. Domestic demand may see a temporary rebound due to the longer holiday and early preparations for consumption in various regions. Investment may also improve moderately, supported by new infrastructure policies and incremental measures [2]. Group 3: Positive Policy Signals - The most challenging period for the real estate sector may have passed, with various policies aimed at stabilizing the market. Multiple government departments are enhancing policy coordination, with fiscal and monetary policies working together to focus on consumption, equipment investment, and the private economy. Local policy deployments are being advanced, with some regions holding their "New Year first meetings" earlier to kickstart annual work [3].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of deeply understanding and implementing Xi Jinping's important speeches, focusing on Shanghai's political positioning and practical implementation to enhance urban governance and support national reform and development [1] - The need to enhance the capability and level of leadership in future industry development was highlighted, with a focus on leveraging technological innovation to transform research creativity into productive forces [1][3] - The meeting called for a strong sense of responsibility in urban operation and emergency management, advocating for a comprehensive emergency command system and the use of technology to strengthen social mobilization [2] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the importance of the Party's leadership in the united front work, aiming to improve the quality and effectiveness of this work to better serve Shanghai's development goals [2] - It was noted that the revitalization of rural areas is a significant task for Shanghai, requiring a focus on strengthening grassroots foundations and addressing deep-seated challenges to enhance agricultural competitiveness [3] - The meeting underscored the need to align research with the implementation of national strategic deployments and the importance of problem-oriented approaches in conducting surveys to ensure effective outcomes [3]

2月13日，省委常委会召开会议，认真学习习近平总书记近期重要讲话重要指示精神，研究贯彻落 实举措。省委书记信长星主持会议并讲话。 会议学习了习近平总书记在《求是》杂志发表的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融 强国》、对国家自然科学基金委员会工作作出的重要指示精神，强调，要锚定金融强省建设目标，统筹 防风险、强监管、促发展，为"十五五"高质量发展提供有力金融支撑。要坚持"四个面向"战略导向，优 化我省基础研究布局，支持科研人员勇攀科学高峰、产出更多原创性成果。 会议审议了推动我省城市高质量发展的有关文件，指出，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于城市工 作的重要论述，把握我省城市发展的阶段性特点，树立和践行正确政绩观，加强规划统筹、深化改革创 新、增强工作合力，优化现代化城市布局，高水平建设富有活力的创新城市、舒适便利的宜居城市、绿 色低碳的美丽城市、安全可靠的韧性城市、崇德向善的文明城市、便捷高效的智慧城市。 会议强调，春节即将到来，全省各地各部门要用心用情关心困难群众生产生活，组织好重要民生商 品供应，切实兜牢民生底线。要强化底线思维、极限思维，加强节日期间应急值守，紧盯重点领域、重 点场所、重点部位和 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.13」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 作者：廖宏斌 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +0.36% | | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.01%/本周变动-0.02BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.63% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.08% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体上涨，科创50涨幅最 | | 本周点评：本周国债期货多数走强，TS主力合约下跌 | | | 大超3%。四期指表现分化，中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股， | | 0.01%，TF、T、TL主力合约分别上涨0.03%、0.08%、 | | | 从涨幅看IM>IC>IF>IH。本周为春节假期前最后一个 | | 0.24%。节前央行加大流动性投放对冲资金压力；1月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic inflation in January showed a slight decline, and the weak fundamentals still supported the bond market. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure of government bonds was limited, but as the Two Sessions approached, the expectation of pro - growth policies might gradually heat up. If the equity market continued the spring market, the bond market would face the pressure of capital diversion. In the short term, the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts was not high, and the bond market sentiment before the Two Sessions might tend to be watchful, with interest rates expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [101] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures' main contracts rose by 0.24%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract fell by 0.01%. For the front two CTD of each term, their bond prices also showed different degrees of increase. The trading volume of TS, TF, T main contracts increased, while that of TL main contract decreased; the positions of TF, TS, T, TL main contracts all decreased [13][30] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Policy news**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out Treasury bond trading operations regularly. The three major exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, and the Ministry of Commerce encouraged consumer goods trade - in during the Spring Festival [33][34] - **Overseas news**: The U.S. non - farm payrolls in January increased strongly, the unemployment rate dropped to a new low since August 2025. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister mentioned tax cuts and cooperation with the U.S [35] 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread changes**: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bonds narrowed; the spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened; the 10 - year contract's inter - term spread slightly narrowed, while the 30 - year contract's inter - term spread widened; the 5 - year and 2 - year contract's inter - term spreads widened [43][49][53] - **Treasury futures' main positions change**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury futures main contract increased [67] - **Interest rate changes**: The overnight, 1 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates declined, the 2 - week Shibor rate increased, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.43%. Most of the Treasury bond spot yields declined, with the 2 - 7Y yields down 0.3 - 2.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields down 2bp and 0.6bp to 1.78% and 2.22% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and U.S. 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds narrowed [71][77] - **Central bank's open - market operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1614.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market, with 405.5 billion yuan due; carried out 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposit, achieving a net investment of 185.89 billion yuan [80] - **Bond issuance and maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 127.0428 billion yuan, the total repayment was 140.8638 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 13.821 billion yuan [84] - **Market sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.9398, up 192 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield declined, and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury yield in China declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][93][98] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the CPI in January decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival effect, but the core inflation continued to improve. The PPI was expected to recover to the positive range in the first half of the year. Overseas, the U.S. employment market was stabilizing, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed. Before the festival, the central bank injected a large amount of liquidity, and the bond market was supported by weak fundamentals. After the festival, the bond market might face capital diversion pressure, and interest rates were expected to fluctuate within a range [101]

"十五五"规划建议提出"前瞻布局未来产业，探索多元技术路线、典型应用场景、可行商业模式、 市场监管规则，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等 六个领域成为新的经济增长点，创新监管方式，发展创业投资，建立未来产业投入增长和风险分担机 制"。这一提法着力聚焦解决未来产业从技术到产业的落地难题，将未来产业纳入现代化产业体系建设 的核心环节，明确未来产业是新的经济增长点的定位，将其与未来我国经济总量增长紧密结合。这并非 国家层面第一次将未来产业提升到这么重要的位置，而是我国对未来产业政策布局的持续深化。 但同时要注意到，新提法更聚焦未来产业的产业化，是顺应技术从萌芽到产业化的发展规律，也是 培育新质生产力的必然选择。"新"在两个方面：一是阶段升级，从谋划到布局，标志着未来产业从绘 制"战略蓝图"走向"系统施工"新阶段。二是定位升级，未来产业与传统产业、新兴产业构成清晰的"产 业梯队"。三者形成相互影响、协同发展的有机整体。 (责编：申佳平、吕骞) 关注公众号：人民网财经 当前将未来产业确立为新的经济增长点，是基于对国际竞争格局和国内发展需求的战略研判。从国 际环境看，新一轮科技 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion CNY, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the growth target[11] - Henan Province's GDP was 66632.79 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, exceeding the initial target of 5.5%[19] - The industrial added value in Henan grew by 8.4%, outperforming the national average by 2.5 percentage points[20] Consumption and Investment - Henan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29090.50 billion CNY, increasing by 5.6%, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average[21] - Fixed asset investment in Henan grew by 4.0%, leading among the six central provinces, with industrial investment showing a robust increase of 13.3%[22] Trade and Exports - Henan's total foreign trade value reached 9356.7 billion CNY, a 14.1% increase, significantly higher than the national average of 3.8%[23] - High-tech product exports from Henan surged by 27.5 percentage points to 18.7%, with electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products showing substantial growth[24] Market Trends - In January 2026, the Henan Index rose by 7.52%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300[6] - The top three A-shares in Henan for January 2026 were Yuguang Gold Lead (89.87%), Zhongcheng Technology (37.72%), and Guangli Technology (35.67%)[6] Policy and Regulatory Environment - In January 2026, financial regulatory bodies introduced policies to support the real economy and expand domestic demand, focusing on fostering new productive forces[33] - The Henan provincial government implemented several policies aimed at improving economic performance and enhancing living standards in early 2026[37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of forward-looking layout and development of future industries, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [1][2] Group 2 - Future industries are crucial for seizing technological and industrial high ground, which is significant for maintaining development initiative and reshaping competitive landscape [2] - They represent a new quality of productive forces and are essential for building a modern industrial system, linking technological innovation with both emerging and traditional industries [2] - The development of future industries aims to enhance the quality of life for people and promote comprehensive social progress, focusing on talent cultivation and meeting the aspirations of the populace [2]