Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding the PTA sector, due to increased maintenance schedules and anticipated production cuts [3][4]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been in a prolonged state of loss since 2022, exacerbated by rapid capacity expansion. As of November 7, 2025, the PTA industry's gross profit reached -319 CNY/ton, indicating a loss across the sector [3][4]. - Recent increases in PTA maintenance schedules are expected to tighten supply, with major companies like Tongkun and Hengli yet to announce maintenance plans. If these companies proceed with production cuts, industry profitability may return to breakeven levels, with potential profit per ton increasing by 200-300 CNY [3][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 63.63 USD/barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week. This decline is coupled with an increase in drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [15][33]. Summary by Sections PTA Sector - The PTA industry is facing a significant downturn, with losses expected to continue into 2025. The increase in maintenance schedules is anticipated to reduce supply and support a recovery in profitability [3][4][8]. - Current PTA operating rates are at 78%, reflecting weak industry conditions, but with no significant inventory pressure, a quicker recovery is expected as maintenance plans are realized [8][10]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with a closing price of 63.63 USD/barrel, while WTI prices also fell to 59.75 USD/barrel. The overall trend suggests a potential for further price declines, although OPEC's production cuts may provide some support [15][17]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has increased slightly, indicating a potential uptick in exploration and production activities despite a year-over-year decline [25][30]. Refining Sector - The refining sector is seeing improved margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to 23.18 USD/barrel. This improvement is attributed to a recovery in demand and a tightening of supply due to maintenance activities [46][48]. - The domestic refining sector's product price differentials have also improved, suggesting a favorable environment for refining profitability moving forward [46][48]. Polyester Sector - The polyester chain is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift. Key companies to watch include Tongkun and Wankai New Materials [10][11].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly, but refined oil inventories declined, with a neutral impact. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which provides some support to the supply side but cannot change the oversupply situation. The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, leading to a rebound in oil prices. After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $59.64 per barrel, down 1.52%; Brent closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 1.38%; SC closed at 460.4 yuan per barrel, down 0.37%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 26.38 million lots, 33.45 million lots, and 9.28 million lots respectively [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a bearish strategy, short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage [7] 2. Industry News - India's Reliance Industries, usually a major oil importer, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes. After U.S. sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 1.69 million barrels per day [8] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels last week due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, higher than market expectations [8] - Commodity trader Mercuria said that an oversupply is slowly forming and may impact the market in the next few months [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI and Oman spot prices, global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [11][12][15][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term positive factors for crude oil have been realized, and international oil prices are oscillating downward. The long - term supply - demand pattern of crude oil is expected to be loose. The investment view is that the oil price will oscillate [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans a small production increase in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market oversupply [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025, with EIA and OPEC showing an increase and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending October 24, while some refined product inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, and the International Energy Agency believes that without major geopolitical tensions, oil and gas prices will decline [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short - Term)**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil. However, the impact on the market is considered neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and plans to end quantitative tightening in December. Sino - US leaders reached some consensus on trade tariff policies [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production, demand entering the off - season, and the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the short - term oil price will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: After short - term positive factors were traded, international oil prices oscillated downward. As of October 24, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures prices all declined [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread strengthened, and the internal - external spread rebounded and widened [9]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [21]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [24][32]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and US weekly crude oil production reached 13.644 million barrels per day [42][54][66]. - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [77][87]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [104][113][122]. - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index oscillated [135]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [144].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market is gradually digesting the bullish factors of sanctions and Sino - US negotiations. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI (main contract) opened at $60.18, closed at $60.36, with a high of $61.02, a low of $59.7, a daily increase of 0.35%, and a trading volume of 25.06 million lots. Brent (main contract) opened at $63.9, closed at $64.3, with a high of $64.7, a low of $63.38, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 43.48 million lots. SC (main contract) opened at 461.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 458.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 466.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 45 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.07%, and a trading volume of 10.87 million lots [6]. - **Market Analysis**: EIA data showed that as of the week of the 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and gasoline and diesel inventories also declined. Overnight oil prices rebounded slightly. On the morning of the 30th, Sino - US leaders held direct talks, but the market reaction was muted [6]. 2. Industry News - **US President's Statement**: President Trump said that a very large - scale agreement might be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [7]. - **Shell's View**: Shell CFO believes there is a credible scenario of oil supply surplus in 2026 [7]. - **ANZ Bank's Forecast**: ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply [7]. - **US Sanctions**: On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft, along with their 34 subsidiaries. US citizens and enterprises are prohibited from trading with them, and entities with over 50% ownership are automatically restricted. These sanctions echo those of the UK on October 15 and the EU on October 23, which include a ban on short - term contracts for importing Russian LNG from April 2026 and a full - scale long - term ban from 2027 [7]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: Bloomberg, EIA, and wind, along with the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11][13] - **Data Charts**: Include global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][18]

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Trump canceled his meeting with Putin and decided to strengthen sanctions against Russia due to the perceived lack of Russia's sincerity in ceasing the war. The U.S. Treasury and the EU subsequently imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of these sanctions. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. In the short - term, investors can consider a strategy of going long on domestic oil and short on foreign oil, and maintain a bearish outlook in the medium - term [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $61.82, closing at $61.55, with a high of $62.17, a low of $60.67, a daily increase of 0.08%, and a trading volume of 25.31 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.35, closing at $65.04, with a high of $65.89, a low of $64.32, a daily decrease of 0.25%, and a trading volume of 42.45 million lots. SC's opening price was 467.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 462.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 469.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 462.5 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 1.22%, and a trading volume of 10.19 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term: Consider a strategy of going long on domestic oil and short on foreign oil; Medium - term: Maintain a bearish outlook [6] 2. Industry News - **Price Forecast**: Morgan Stanley predicts that the Brent crude oil price will be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 per barrel in the second half [7] - **Inventory Situation**: Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [7] - **Production Data**: Mexico's state - owned oil company's crude oil and condensate production in the third quarter was 1.65 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [7] - **Geopolitical News**: Ukraine will expand its attacks on Russian refineries; OPEC+ producers tend to implement a small - scale production increase again in December; Indian state - owned refineries are considering the feasibility of relying on small - scale crude oil suppliers to continue importing discounted Russian crude oil [7] 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures are the data sources for various figures, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and consumption data of U.S. gasoline and diesel [9][13][14][16][20][21][22] - **Figures Included**: The report includes figures such as global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, WTI and Brent spot prices, and U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [10][11][14][21]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: October 29, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24 decreased by 4.02 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 2.981 million barrels in the previous week [3]. - Israel attacked Gaza again, but US officials said the cease - fire "remained in effect". Hamas postponed the return of Israeli detainees' remains due to Israeli attacks [3]. - Russia's Peskov said it was currently unable to assess the prospects of restarting Russia - Ukraine negotiations, citing Ukraine's lack of willingness to continue dialogue [3]. - An executive of an Indian oil company stated that India would never completely stop buying Russian crude [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the Brent crude price would be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 in the second half [4]. - Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17 [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a 0.2% decline [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, a 0.2% increase for the week ending October 17 [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.918 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 267,000 barrels, with an expected decrease of 75,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 4.529 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 294,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7].

Core Viewpoint - Asian morning oil prices have slightly declined due to market expectations that U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants may not be as severe as anticipated [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - Near-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 0.3%, trading at $61.14 per barrel [1] - Near-term Brent crude futures also decreased by 0.3%, priced at $65.45 per barrel [1] Group 2: Supporting Reasons - One reason for the price movement is that most of Russia's transactions are now conducted in rubles or other "friendly" currencies [1] - Another reason is that OPEC has expressed willingness to increase production if necessary [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers mean that all four major Russian oil giants are under US sanctions. The short - term supply of Russian oil to India will drop close to zero. The reduction in Russian crude exports still needs to be evaluated, but Indian purchases have supported the Dubai market, and this support is expected to continue in the short term. Mid - term Russian supply reduction will affect the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. Geopolitical concerns were triggered by the US military strike on Venezuelan transportation. The fundamentals have improved, with EIA crude oil inventories decreasing, US refinery operations rebounding, and the US Energy Department planning to buy 100,000 barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve. However, the Singapore diesel inventory has reached a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel cracking space. Short - term oil prices may rebound with increased volatility, and the mid - term upside is limited, with the oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, etc.**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, WTI prices changed by -$0.29, BRENT by -$0.05, and DUBAI by $0.30. Other price differentials and related products also showed various changes [3]. - **SC, OMAN, etc.**: SC prices increased by 5.20, OMAN decreased by 0.94, and other related indicators such as price differentials and domestic refined product prices also had corresponding changes during the same period [3]. - **Japan Naphtha, Singapore Fuel Oil, etc.**: Japan Naphtha - BRT and other related products' prices and price differentials changed from October 20 to October 24, 2025 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump will sign a historic agreement to end military conflicts. Russia will respond to new US and European sanctions. The EU has officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russian energy. UBS expects Brent crude prices to remain in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. The US government is preparing a proposal to open most US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which is opposed by local governors [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase). The US to October 10 week EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels. From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [4][5][16]. 3.4 Weekly View - Short - term: Indian purchases will continue to support the Dubai market. Oil prices may rebound with increased volatility, and the short - term supply of Russian oil to India will drop close to zero. - Mid - term: Russian supply reduction will affect the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026, which is affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine situation, the progress of the Trump - Putin meeting, and changes in Russian oil logistics. - Overall: The fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory has reached a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel cracking space. The mid - term upside of oil prices is limited, the oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues, and caution is recommended when chasing high prices [5].

Core Insights - International oil prices surged to a two-week high, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 5.62% to $61.79 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 5.43% to $65.99 per barrel [1] - Despite the recent increase, the overall trend for international oil prices this year has been downward, with prices frequently dipping below the critical $60 per barrel mark [1] - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term upward pressure on oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions, long-term bearish pressures are expected to manifest in the first half of next year [1][7] Supply Concerns from Sanctions - The recent rise in international oil prices is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, which have raised market supply concerns [2] - The sanctions are seen as a significant escalation in Washington's pressure on Moscow, increasing the likelihood of major disruptions in Russian oil production and exports [2] European Sanctions - The European Union has also imposed sanctions on Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas and travel restrictions on Russian diplomats [5] - However, there are doubts about the effectiveness of these sanctions, as previous sanctions have had limited impact on Russian oil exports [5] Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, international oil prices have experienced a decline, with Brent crude futures averaging over a 10% drop compared to last year, primarily due to increased supply [6] - The global oil supply is expected to remain tight in 2024, but a shift to a more competitive production strategy by OPEC+ starting in 2025 may lead to oversupply [6] Price Support Levels - The $60 per barrel price point is considered a critical support level, as it is essential for the fiscal balance of many Middle Eastern countries [7] - Analysts suggest that if sanctions remain in place, oil prices may continue to trend higher in the short term, but oversupply pressures could lead to a weaker market in the long run [7] Future Price Projections - Long-term projections indicate that the bearish pressures in the oil market may become more pronounced in the first half of next year, with OPEC+ potentially increasing production to address supply shortages [7] - UBS forecasts that Brent crude prices will stabilize between $60 and $70 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs predicts a further decline, potentially reaching $52 per barrel by Q4 of next year [7]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US canceled a summit with Russia and imposed sanctions on two Russian oil companies, leading to a rebound in oil prices. India has denied plans to stop importing Russian oil. The impact on Russian oil exports may be limited, and shipping conditions need to be monitored [6]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ production is generally within the quota, but there is still room for growth, and non - OPEC+ countries will also contribute significant supply, resulting in high supply pressure. On the demand side, both IEA and EIA slightly raised their demand forecasts in their monthly reports, but the demand increase is far lower than the supply. Inventory accumulation will accelerate in Q4 this year. - Short - term oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and a correction in precious metals. If the sanctions do not further escalate, oil prices may face another correction under the situation of weak supply and demand [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $57.59, closing at $59.38, with a high of $59.83, a low of $57.59, a rise of 3.74%, and a trading volume of 35.67 million lots. Brent's opening price was $61.34, closing at $63.89, with a high of $64.04, a low of $61.09, a rise of 4.69%, and a trading volume of 43 million lots. SC's opening price was 446.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 459.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 463.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 445.8 yuan/barrel, a rise of 4.05%, and a trading volume of 15.16 million lots [6]. 2. Industry News - UBS Group expects Brent crude prices to remain in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. - The US Treasury has sanctioned two major Russian oil companies. - US Energy Secretary said that oil prices are low and it is a good time to buy. - The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on liquefied natural gas imports. - Hungary will start negotiations with the US on purchasing nuclear fuel. - Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system. - Russia's oil supply to India is expected to drop to near zero, and Indian refiners are reviewing Russian oil contracts [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Bloomberg, and Wind [11][12][15]