Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is bearish on crude oil prices in the short term and recommends shorting on price rebounds [2] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is affected by supply and demand factors, while the low-sulfur fuel oil market has improved fundamentals. The strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized and can be considered for timely profit-taking [2] - The asphalt market is bearish in the medium and long term due to weak fundamentals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to fluctuate upward due to tightened supply and demand [4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. The OPEC November report adjusted the non-OPEC+ supply growth rate upward and maintained the demand growth rate, shifting the balance sheet from a shortage to a balance, amplifying market pessimism. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil calendar spread and spot premium have weakened again. Considering that the most relaxed quarter of the balance sheet, Q1 2026, has not yet arrived, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Affected by the pessimistic sentiment from the OPEC November report, fuel oil prices followed the cost side down significantly [2] - The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from the supply risk caused by the constraints on Russian refinery capacity, especially with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the continuous production increase by OPEC+ has led to an increase in high-sulfur resources in the Middle East, offsetting some of the impact. On the demand side, the power generation peak season in the Middle East has ended, the Palestine-Israel conflict has eased, and the market expects the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 to be issued ahead of schedule, which may further weaken the feedstock demand of local refineries [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from the alleviation of supply pressure due to unstable overseas refinery operations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, providing support for low-sulfur fuel oil from the perspective of production switching. In the fourth quarter, it is the peak season for marine fuel, and the phased improvement in Sino-US trade relations has improved the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil compared to the third quarter. The previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized, and timely profit-taking can be considered [2] Asphalt - Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in crude oil prices today, the decline of asphalt has slowed down, and the 2601 contract has some support at 3,000 yuan/ton [3] - The lower-than-expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush construction demand in the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year. This week, the destocking of commercial inventories has shown signs of slowing down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventories has widened after reaching an inflection point at the end of October. In the medium and long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight supply of imported resources [4] - The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for combustion. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply and demand has supported the LPG to fluctuate upward [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term. Short the spread (long far - month and short near - month, Brent or WTI) [3] 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, and sanctions on Lukoil have provided some support to oil prices. However, the high in - transit inventory at sea remains unsolved. Although OPEC decided not to increase quotas in Q1 next year, its recent exports reached a new high for the year. Facing the seasonal off - peak in Q1 next year, OPEC needs to implement substantial production cuts. If OPEC does not act, oil prices may need to drop to $50 per barrel to reduce US shale oil production. Currently, the oil market is in a passive inventory accumulation period [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 91 cents to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose $1.10 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.11% at 469 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's seaborne crude oil shipments have declined for three consecutive weeks, reaching a two - month low. In the four weeks ending November 9, Russia transported 3.45 million barrels of crude oil per day, about 130,000 barrels less than the same period ending November 2 [1] - Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian refinery in the Volga region this month. The refinery can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day and has been targeted by Ukrainian drones multiple times this year, with the latest on November 3 [1] - In 2025, Russia's crude oil shipments to Asia via the Northern Sea Route decreased by 4.2% compared to 2024. Russian oil exporters shipped 1.83 million tons (about 13.41 million barrels) of crude oil via this route this year [1] - India has reduced its planned purchases of Russian crude oil for December, indicating that Western sanctions and trade negotiations with the US have significantly affected India's procurement pattern [1] - Lukoil declared force majeure on the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation persists [1] Investment Logic - In the short term, the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, and sanctions on Lukoil support oil prices. But the high in - transit inventory at sea is a problem. OPEC's exports are at a new high for the year. Facing the Q1 seasonal off - peak, OPEC needs to cut production. If not, oil prices may drop to $50 per barrel to reduce US shale oil production. The oil market is in a passive inventory accumulation period [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term. Short the spread (long far - month and short near - month, Brent or WTI) [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US lifting sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have increased after two consecutive decreases, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10 [2][3]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the price increase based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, which was 62.44 USD per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 2.74% [3]. - This marks the 22nd price adjustment in 2025, with a total of seven increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change throughout the year [3][4]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 620 yuan per ton and 595 yuan per ton respectively [4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, retail prices for diesel range from 6.6 to 6.8 yuan per liter, while 92-octane gasoline is priced between 6.9 and 7.0 yuan per liter [4]. - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank will cost an additional 5 yuan, leading to an estimated increase of 7 yuan in fuel costs for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month [4]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month will see an increase of approximately 177 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [4]. International Oil Market Trends - International crude oil prices have shown a weak and fluctuating trend, with OPEC+ members deciding to increase production targets, raising concerns about oversupply [5][6]. - The U.S. government shutdown and rising crude oil inventories have further pressured oil prices downward [5][6]. - Analysts predict that global oil inventories will continue to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude expected to average 62 USD per barrel in Q4 2025 and drop to 52 USD in 2026 [6]. Future Price Expectations - The next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is anticipated to be downward due to a pessimistic outlook on international oil prices and ongoing oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [7]. - Analysts suggest that the seasonal decrease in U.S. refinery demand and the increase in crude oil inventories will contribute to this expected price reduction [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while diesel demand remains stable, gasoline lacks strong support, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations in gasoline prices [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated in the given rating form, but the analysis implies a bearish view in the medium - term with short - term support [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly rated in the form, but analysis shows short - term support and potential for the spread with high - sulfur fuel oil to widen [2] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with a weak upward/downward trend and poor operability on the trading board [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Views - For the oil market, although there are short - term factors supporting oil prices, considering inventory trends, refinery operations, and the expected loosening of the balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] - In the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil supply is becoming more abundant, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is likely to further widen [2] - The asphalt market is under pressure due to poor demand, slow inventory reduction, and negative fundamental signals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market has improved fundamentals, with reduced supply and increased demand, which supports the LPG futures price [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, global oil inventories decreased, mainly in refined products. Diesel cracking is strong overseas. Considering the recovery of refinery operating rates in Europe and the US after autumn maintenance and the strong refining profit, the low point of diesel inventory is approaching [2] - Since November, the oil price contango and spot premium have weakened again. With the loosest balance sheet period (Q1 next year) yet to come, there is still room for oil prices to fall this year. However, the resolution of the US government shutdown and the intensifying geopolitical game around Russia and Ukraine provide short - term support. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by the cost side. Although supported by geopolitical situations, Russian shipments decreased in October due to facility attacks, but exports from the Middle East increased after the end of the power - generation peak season, and OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, so the overall supply tends to be loose. Import demand support is limited, and the expected early issuance of the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 may further weaken feedstock demand [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support from factors such as the unexpected shutdown of the Al Zour refinery, the adjustment of the Dangote refinery's shipping schedule, and the possible shift of quotas to refined products. The frequent attacks on Russian refineries have pushed up the diesel price, which is transmitted to the low - sulfur fuel oil market through component correlation [2] Asphalt - The shipment volume is worse than expected, falsifying the expectation of rush - work demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and indicating that demand is lower than the same period last year. Commercial inventory reduction has slowed down this week, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened since the inflection point in late October. The basis of the lowest deliverable spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China relative to the main asphalt contract has shown obvious differentiation, with high bases in East and South China and a negative basis in Shandong. The market is bearish, and the asphalt price is under significant pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG has shown a narrow - range oscillation today and is relatively strong among oil futures. In the latest week, both the commercial volume and arrivals of LPG have decreased. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the combustion demand has improved due to significant cooling in many places. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disruptions, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, there is a long - short game between the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.26% to 461.8 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 59.84 dollars/barrel and 63.7 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI strengthened by 0.21 dollars/barrel to 1.18 dollars/barrel and 5.04 dollars/barrel respectively, indicating an expansion of SC's premium relative to the outer market. The discount of the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread deepened to - 3.4 yuan/barrel, reflecting pressure on near - month contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq was suspended due to force majeure, and 3 batches of crude oil shipments of Lukoil were cancelled, increasing the short - term risk of supply tightening in Iraq. The cooperation between Zhonggang Petroleum and Kazakh oil fields may provide potential support for long - term production capacity in Central Asia, but the short - term impact is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The slight increase in refined oil prices in China shows a marginal improvement in refinery profits, which may support crude oil procurement demand. However, Singapore's plan to levy a green tax on aviation fuel may suppress the consumption expectation of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region, forming a partial suppression on the demand side [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The expansion of the SC near - far month spread discount may imply an accumulation of domestic delivery inventories under supply pressure. The inventory data of the US and OECD have not been updated, and subsequent EIA reports need to be followed [5]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disturbances, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption form a long - short game. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SC was at 461.80 yuan/barrel, up 0.26% from November 7; WTI was at 60.05 dollars/barrel, up 0.35%; Brent was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, up 0.38%; OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at 64.83 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, such as Oman up 0.41%, Dubai up 0.95%, etc. [8]. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 3.09% to 0.94 dollars/barrel; SC - WTI spread remained unchanged; Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.78% to 3.89 dollars/barrel; SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased by 41.67% to - 3.40 yuan/barrel [8]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose by 0.08% to 99.62; the S&P 500 rose by 1.54% to 6,832.43 points; the DAX index rose by 1.65% to 23,959.99 points; the RMB exchange rate remained stable [8]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.25% to 42,116,800 barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 1.33% to 2,286,500 barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.12% to 40,959,500 barrels; API inventory increased by 1.47% to 45,043,900 barrels [8]. - **开工**: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased by 0.69% to 86.00%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.24% to 1,525,600 barrels/day [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU was at 2,693.00 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from November 7; LU was at 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 249.51 cents/gallon, up 0.52% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, such as IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MDO in Singapore and Rotterdam, etc. [9]. - **Paper Prices**: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.46% to 376.78 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.17% to 371.43 dollars/ton [9]. - **Spreads**: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.38% to 587.00 yuan/ton; LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased by 0.32% to - 1,887.00 yuan/ton; FU - Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.11% to - 1,780.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's inventory decreased by 1.21% to 2,448,200 barrels [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On November 10, Zhonggang Petroleum (International) Group Co., Ltd. and AralPetroleum Capital LLP entered into a memorandum of understanding to explore potential cooperation in oil well exploration and production in Kazakh oil fields. - On November 10, Iraq's SOMO cancelled 3 batches of crude oil cargoes of Lukoil scheduled for November shipment. - On November 10, Lukoil announced force majeure for the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation continued [10][11]. 3.3.2 Demand - On November 10, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased slightly due to international oil price fluctuations [12]. 3.3.3 Market Information - Starting from next year, air passengers departing from Singapore will pay a green fuel tax of up to S$41.60 (US$31.95), which may suppress the consumption of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks effective drivers, and international oil prices are falling weakly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, and the supply - demand situation remains bearish. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating and weak performance [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,585 million barrels per day, an increase of 267 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025. EIA raises the forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Bearish. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and there were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which may intensify concerns about market oversupply [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are some geopolitical events, but they have limited impact on the oil market for now [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are signs of economic weakness in the U.S., and the market has expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Main Oil Product Prices**: SC crude oil increased by 0.41% week - on - week, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.71%. There were also corresponding price changes in gasoline, diesel, and other oil products [5] - **Inventory and Other Data**: There were changes in the inventories of various oil products in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, and the operating rates of refineries in different regions also changed [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell weakly this week. As of November 7, WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.04 dollars per barrel (-1.71%), Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.88 dollars per barrel (-1.36%), and SC crude oil futures rose by 1.90 yuan per barrel (+0.41%) [7] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [24] - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [32][43] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all reported an increase in production compared to August [64] - **Non - OPEC Production**: The production of non - OPEC countries increased [66] - **U.S. Production**: As of the week ending October 31, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased to 13.651 million barrels per day. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased to 548 as of the week ending November 8 [89] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 30,000 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [90][99] - **U.S. Demand**: Gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased [117] - **China Demand**: The refinery capacity utilization rate increased slightly. For example, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 0.15 percentage points compared to last week [126][134] - **China Refinery Profits**: The gross profit of major refineries declined, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel also declined [135] 3.5 Macro - finance - **U.S. Treasury Yield and Dollar Index**: The U.S. Treasury yield rebounded, and the dollar index oscillated [148] 3.6 CFTC Positioning - The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [157]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding the PTA sector, due to increased maintenance schedules and anticipated production cuts [3][4]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been in a prolonged state of loss since 2022, exacerbated by rapid capacity expansion. As of November 7, 2025, the PTA industry's gross profit reached -319 CNY/ton, indicating a loss across the sector [3][4]. - Recent increases in PTA maintenance schedules are expected to tighten supply, with major companies like Tongkun and Hengli yet to announce maintenance plans. If these companies proceed with production cuts, industry profitability may return to breakeven levels, with potential profit per ton increasing by 200-300 CNY [3][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 63.63 USD/barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week. This decline is coupled with an increase in drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [15][33]. Summary by Sections PTA Sector - The PTA industry is facing a significant downturn, with losses expected to continue into 2025. The increase in maintenance schedules is anticipated to reduce supply and support a recovery in profitability [3][4][8]. - Current PTA operating rates are at 78%, reflecting weak industry conditions, but with no significant inventory pressure, a quicker recovery is expected as maintenance plans are realized [8][10]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with a closing price of 63.63 USD/barrel, while WTI prices also fell to 59.75 USD/barrel. The overall trend suggests a potential for further price declines, although OPEC's production cuts may provide some support [15][17]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has increased slightly, indicating a potential uptick in exploration and production activities despite a year-over-year decline [25][30]. Refining Sector - The refining sector is seeing improved margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to 23.18 USD/barrel. This improvement is attributed to a recovery in demand and a tightening of supply due to maintenance activities [46][48]. - The domestic refining sector's product price differentials have also improved, suggesting a favorable environment for refining profitability moving forward [46][48]. Polyester Sector - The polyester chain is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift. Key companies to watch include Tongkun and Wankai New Materials [10][11].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly, but refined oil inventories declined, with a neutral impact. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which provides some support to the supply side but cannot change the oversupply situation. The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, leading to a rebound in oil prices. After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $59.64 per barrel, down 1.52%; Brent closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 1.38%; SC closed at 460.4 yuan per barrel, down 0.37%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 26.38 million lots, 33.45 million lots, and 9.28 million lots respectively [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a bearish strategy, short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage [7] 2. Industry News - India's Reliance Industries, usually a major oil importer, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes. After U.S. sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 1.69 million barrels per day [8] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels last week due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, higher than market expectations [8] - Commodity trader Mercuria said that an oversupply is slowly forming and may impact the market in the next few months [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI and Oman spot prices, global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [11][12][15][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term positive factors for crude oil have been realized, and international oil prices are oscillating downward. The long - term supply - demand pattern of crude oil is expected to be loose. The investment view is that the oil price will oscillate [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans a small production increase in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market oversupply [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025, with EIA and OPEC showing an increase and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending October 24, while some refined product inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, and the International Energy Agency believes that without major geopolitical tensions, oil and gas prices will decline [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short - Term)**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil. However, the impact on the market is considered neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and plans to end quantitative tightening in December. Sino - US leaders reached some consensus on trade tariff policies [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production, demand entering the off - season, and the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the short - term oil price will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: After short - term positive factors were traded, international oil prices oscillated downward. As of October 24, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures prices all declined [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread strengthened, and the internal - external spread rebounded and widened [9]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [21]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [24][32]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and US weekly crude oil production reached 13.644 million barrels per day [42][54][66]. - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [77][87]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [104][113][122]. - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index oscillated [135]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [144].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market is gradually digesting the bullish factors of sanctions and Sino - US negotiations. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI (main contract) opened at $60.18, closed at $60.36, with a high of $61.02, a low of $59.7, a daily increase of 0.35%, and a trading volume of 25.06 million lots. Brent (main contract) opened at $63.9, closed at $64.3, with a high of $64.7, a low of $63.38, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 43.48 million lots. SC (main contract) opened at 461.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 458.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 466.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 45 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.07%, and a trading volume of 10.87 million lots [6]. - **Market Analysis**: EIA data showed that as of the week of the 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and gasoline and diesel inventories also declined. Overnight oil prices rebounded slightly. On the morning of the 30th, Sino - US leaders held direct talks, but the market reaction was muted [6]. 2. Industry News - **US President's Statement**: President Trump said that a very large - scale agreement might be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [7]. - **Shell's View**: Shell CFO believes there is a credible scenario of oil supply surplus in 2026 [7]. - **ANZ Bank's Forecast**: ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply [7]. - **US Sanctions**: On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft, along with their 34 subsidiaries. US citizens and enterprises are prohibited from trading with them, and entities with over 50% ownership are automatically restricted. These sanctions echo those of the UK on October 15 and the EU on October 23, which include a ban on short - term contracts for importing Russian LNG from April 2026 and a full - scale long - term ban from 2027 [7]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: Bloomberg, EIA, and wind, along with the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11][13] - **Data Charts**: Include global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][18]