Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - In the short - term, oil prices are rising due to geopolitical and macro - support, but in the medium - term, they may fall again. It is recommended to operate flexibly. The implementation of US sanctions on Russia and the sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US need further observation [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was 67.04, closing at 69.25, with a high of 69.76, a low of 66.53, a rise of 3.81%, and a trading volume of 30.64 million lots. Brent's opening price was 70.28, closing at 72.76, with a high of 73.08, a low of 69.86, a rise of 3.88%, and a trading volume of 13.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 518.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 528.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 523.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 517.6 yuan/barrel, a rise of 2.7%, and a trading volume of 13.67 million lots [6] - **News Impact**: Trump will give Russia 10 days to reach a cease - fire agreement; otherwise, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russian energy buyers. The implementation of sanctions needs further observation [6] - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected in the peak season. If demand remains low, it will drag down refinery operations and lead to crude oil inventory accumulation. OPEC+ is likely to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September [7] Group 5: Industry News - In June, Pemex's crude oil exports decreased by 39% year - on - year to a multi - decade low due to increased local refinery processing and fuel production [8] - Trump said he is not worried about oil issues if sanctions are imposed on Russia and gave Russia 10 days to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][23]

随着基准布伦特原油价格回升至每桶70美元，且各国的生产目标有所提高，欧佩克四个关键中东成员国 的产出名义价值已攀升至自2月份以来的最高水平。根据Rystad Energy A/S数据的计算，本月该数值跃 升至近14亿美元/日。 然而，主要的不确定性在于，这次油价初步的反弹是否能够持久。 早些时候，IG的市场分析师Tony Sycamore说，美国和欧盟之间的协议支持了全球金融市场和油价。 高盛集团和摩根大通的石油预测师普遍预计，今年晚些时候油价将出现暴跌，因为来自欧佩克+的额外 产量将加剧由疲软的中国需求和充裕的美国供应所造成的过剩。这可能再次大幅削减欧佩克+的收入， 甚至迫使该联盟撤回最近的增产决定。 八个关键的欧佩克+国家将在本周末决定9月份的另一次大幅增产，荷兰国际集团预计，欧佩克+至少将 在9月底之前完全恢复每天220万桶的额外自愿减产，比原计划提前一年。 欧佩克+打开石油阀门的惊人举动所带来的财务阵痛，目前看来正在消退，至少现在是这样。 四个月前，当沙特及其合作伙伴同意迅速恢复原油生产时，其后果似乎是灾难性的：油价暴跌至四年低 点，随着国家收入的减少，生产商面临着日益扩大的预算赤字。 但随后的几个月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions. There may still be opportunities to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter [6]. - Brent and WTI may still have opportunities to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the medium - to - long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. This year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [6]. - Logic: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in the first half of the third quarter, mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the medium - to - long term, it is bearish, mainly due to the large long - term oversupply pressure caused by increased production from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a further increase [6]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading - buy on dips in the short term and conduct band trading; sell on rallies in the long term and conduct trend trading. For inter - period trading, focus on going long on the 09 contract and short on the 10 or 11 contracts. For inter - commodity trading, stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - U.S. long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [12]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [18][19]. 3.2 Supply - Global diesel supply remains tight. Refineries are restricted by the increasing proportion of light crude oil and have difficulty increasing production. Geopolitical conflicts and sanctions disrupt the supply chain. OPEC+ is accelerating the exit from production cuts, but non - OPEC+ supply growth may lead to a supply surplus risk in Q4 2025 [6]. - OPEC+ core member countries: Iraq has a production of 3.96 million barrels per day with a shortfall of 130,000 barrels per day; the UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil in July; Saudi Arabia's production in June is 9.75 million barrels per day, exceeding the target by 380,000 barrels per day and leading the OPEC+ production increase plan in August [7]. - Non - OPEC+ countries: U.S. crude oil production reaches a record high of 13.47 million barrels per day in April, but the profitability of WTI exports to Europe and Asia has deteriorated. Kazakhstan's CPC Blend production reaches a record high, exacerbating the surplus of light oil in Europe. Venezuela's production and exports are expected to decline [8]. 3.3 Demand - Seasonal peak demand continues. Diesel demand is rigid, but jet fuel growth diverts medium - distillate production capacity. Asian processing volume is at a high level, but increased exports alleviate the surplus. Gasoline demand is weak, and the LPG substitution effect weakens naphtha demand [6]. - Different regions: Asian demand is affected by factors such as tariffs and the substitution of Venezuelan crude oil. European refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and North American refinery closures force policy adjustments [10]. 3.4 Inventory - U.S. commercial inventories rebound, and Cushing region inventories stabilize but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined - oil profit margins are restored [62][76][78]. 3.5 Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the month - spread declines, SC is stronger than the external market, and the month - spread strengthens. Net long positions decline [82][83][85].

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - Overnight crude oil oscillated and closed lower, with weakening momentum and a short - term bearish trend. Despite a temporary rebound due to improved risk appetite in the financial market, the overall tone is turning weak. Without new positive factors, there is a risk of further price decline [3] - Although it is the peak demand season from July to August, demand in China and the US has reached its peak with limited growth space and will face a seasonal decline, which is unfavorable for bulls [3] - EIA data shows that the operating rate and processing volume of US refineries are at their peak, and the demand for major oil products such as gasoline is weak, indicating that the peak - season logic may be over [3] - Global inventories are increasing, and the supply - demand balance is relatively stable. With OPEC+ increasing production and a decline in US demand after September, the fundamentals will weaken [3] - Geopolitical risks can only cause short - term disturbances, and there is a risk of a restart of the tariff war in trade negotiations [3] - The low inventory in the US is due to active destocking, and increased exports are squeezing OPEC+ market share, which may intensify future market competition [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - For the week ending July 11, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels (expected - 0.552 million barrels, previous value + 7.07 million barrels), strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.3 million barrels (previous value + 0.238 million barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.213 million barrels (previous value + 0.464 million barrels), gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels (expected - 0.952 million barrels, previous value - 2.658 million barrels), and refined oil inventory increased by 4.173 million barrels (expected + 0.199 million barrels, previous value - 0.825 million barrels) [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.366 million barrels per day from the previous week, and crude oil exports increased by 0.761 million barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [4] - The refinery operating rate was 93.9% (expected 94.5%, previous value 94.7%) [4] Group 3: EIA Weekly Data Review - The EIA data update showed a mixed situation, with an increase in transportation fuel inventory being more bearish, except for fuel oil whose inventory continued to hit multi - year lows [5] - US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels in a single week and is slightly below the 5 - year average. Refinery throughput decreased by 150,000 barrels per day, consistent with the 2024 seasonal normal level [5] - Fuel oil inventory decreased by 700,000 barrels, 27% lower than the 5 - year range; aviation fuel output remained high, driving a 570,000 - barrel increase in inventory in a single week [5] - As transportation fuel inventory continues to accumulate, the recent upward trend in refining profit margins along the US Gulf Coast may end, and gasoline and diesel prices may decline from current highs [6] Group 4: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - Brent crude oil M + 2 was at $68.52 on July 16, down $0.19 from the previous day and $1.67 from the previous week [7] - WTI crude oil M + 2 was at $65.19 on July 16, down $0.18 from the previous day and $1.78 from the previous week [7] - SC crude oil M + 2 was at 504.7 yuan on July 16, down 2.3 yuan from the previous day and 6.3 yuan from the previous week [7] - Dubai crude oil M + 2 was at $66.89 on July 16, down $0.23 from the previous day and $1.35 from the previous week [7] - Oman crude oil M + 2 was at $69.99 on July 16, down $0.34 from the previous day and $1.72 from the previous week [7] - Murban crude oil M + 2 was at $69.81 on July 16, down $0.29 from the previous day and $1.68 from the previous week [7] - EFS spread M + 2 was at $1.63 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.32 from the previous week [7] - Brent monthly spread (M + 2 - M + 3) was at $0.97 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.18 from the previous week [7] - Oman monthly spread (M + 2 - M - 3) was at $1.63 on July 16, down $0.26 from the previous day and down $0.31 from the previous week [7] - Dubai monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at $0.82 on July 16, down $0.08 from the previous day and down $0.21 from the previous week [7] - SC monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at 10.2 yuan on July 16, down 2.7 yuan from the previous day and up 5.8 yuan from the previous week [7] - SC - Dubai (M + 2) was at $3.6658 on July 16, up $0.0699 from the previous day and up $2.1228 from the previous week [7] - SC - Oman (M + 2) was at $0.6058 on July 16, up $0.0599 from the previous day and up $2.6028 from the previous week [7]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental drivers. OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations, but the actual increment is limited. The demand side still has support, and combined with geopolitical changes, oil prices are expected to rise in the 3rd quarter. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was 65.67 dollars/barrel, closing at 65.56 dollars/barrel, with a high of 66.06 dollars/barrel, a low of 65.18 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.38%, and a trading volume of 21.80 million lots. Brent's opening price was 69.15 dollars/barrel, closing at 68.86 dollars/barrel, with a high of 69.41 dollars/barrel, a low of 68.60 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.51%, and a trading volume of 31.49 million lots. SC's opening price was 520.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 517.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 514.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.92%, and a trading volume of 8.67 million lots [6] - **News**: OPEC monthly report data shows that member countries' production in June was 220,000 barrels per day, and demand growth rate remains unchanged. OPEC+ decided to further expand the production increase from August, from the previous 410,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day. In the first month of OPEC's expanded production increase, the production of 8 member countries only increased by 150,000 barrels per day month-on-month. Although the three major institutions have raised their demand expectations for the second half of the year, due to the supply growth potential of countries such as Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited, and the inventory pressure in the 4th quarter will be greater than that in the 3rd quarter [6][7] - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that oil prices will still have the potential to rise in the 3rd quarter, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to withdraw from the International Energy Agency [8] - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US is considering innovative trading plans to replenish oil reserves [8] - Two sources revealed that Europe plans to contact Iran in the next few days and weeks, stating that if Iran takes measures to reassure the world about its nuclear program, it can avoid the automatic resumption of sanctions [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, etc., but does not list specific data values [10][12][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not rated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Crude oil: Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations. Recently, the upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. In July, the downside risk from the trade war is greater than the upside risk from geopolitical factors, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured state. In August, if the European diesel contradiction remains unresolved, the market may rise again [2] - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: After a significant decline in the previous trading day, FU slightly recovered today but remained weak. LU also followed the decline of crude oil. Since July, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels has widened. Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual increase in feedstock due to the previous pilot of raising the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio in China is limited, and demand lacks a driving force. The FU crack is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil, and its crack may turn to a volatile pattern similar to that of overseas diesel [3] - Asphalt: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed. Demand remains weak but has recovery expectations. Low inventory still provides some support for prices. The unilateral trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil. Before demand improves substantially, the upward drive of BU is limited. Since mid - July, the BU crack has shown a volatile consolidation pattern [4] - LPG: The production increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be volatile and weak. Recently, the import cost has continued to decline, but the weak terminal product prices have kept the PDH gross margin stable. PDH has added new maintenance. Recently, the domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is mainly under pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the summer off - season pattern remains unchanged, so the futures market is volatile and weak [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Price trend: Supported by peak - season procurement expectations since May, but the upward drive of strong real - world factors has weakened recently [2] - Risk factors: In July, trade - war downside risk > geopolitical upside risk; August is a critical window for Russia - Ukraine and Iran - nuclear games, and unresolved European diesel contradictions may lead to a market rise [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market performance: FU slightly recovered but remained weak after a previous decline, LU followed crude oil down, and the high - low sulfur spread widened since July [3] - Supply - demand situation: Under OPEC+ production increase, high - sulfur heavy resource supply may increase; short - term sanctions impact on major production areas is limited; domestic tax deduction pilot has limited feedstock increase effect; demand lacks drive [3] - Crack trend: FU crack expected to decline, LU crack may turn to a volatile pattern [3] Asphalt - Shipment and inventory: Shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly month - on - month, cumulative year - on - year increase decreased; low inventory supports prices [4] - Supply - demand outlook: Supply increase resilience to be observed, demand is weak but has recovery expectations; before demand improvement, upward drive of BU is limited [4] - Crack pattern: Since mid - July, the BU crack has shown a volatile consolidation pattern [4] LPG - Overseas market: Middle East production increase pressure persists, overseas prices are volatile and weak despite increased Far East chemical procurement [5] - Domestic situation: Import cost declined, PDH gross margin stable due to weak terminal prices; PDH added new maintenance, domestic supply and demand are both weak, and domestic gas price is under pressure [5] - Market trend: Crude oil decline and summer off - season lead to a volatile and weak futures market [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental drivers. OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations, but the incremental supply is limited. The demand side still has support, and with geopolitical changes, oil prices are expected to rise in the third quarter. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI: Open at $67.35, close at $65.65, high at $68.16, low at $65.64, down 2.07%, with a trading volume of 21.05 million lots [6] - Brent: Open at $70.5, close at $69.14, high at $71.53, low at $69.02, down 1.73%, with a trading volume of 36.28 million lots [6] - SC: Open at 530 yuan/barrel, close at 518.2 yuan/barrel, high at 530.2 yuan/barrel, low at 516.7 yuan/barrel, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 12.42 million lots [6] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% secondary tariff on countries buying Russian oil, which was lower than market expectations, leading to an overnight decline in oil prices [6] - OPEC+ decided to further increase production from August, from the previous 410,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day. The actual incremental supply is relatively limited, and the implementation remains to be seen. In the first month of OPEC's increased production, the output of 8 member countries only increased by 150,000 barrels per day month-on-month [7] - Although the three major institutions have raised their demand forecasts for the second half of the year, due to the supply growth potential in countries such as Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited. The inventory pressure in the fourth quarter will be greater than that in the third quarter [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel, and raised its forecast for WTI crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 to $63 per barrel, previously $57 per barrel. It maintains the forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively by 2026 [8] - According to data and Reuters calculations, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% month-on-month in June [8] - Trump pressured Russia to promote a ceasefire, and US officials said that secondary sanctions would target buyers of Russian oil [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include global high-frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund positions, Brent fund net positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][18]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years and is considering pausing production increases starting in October, indicating a cautious approach [1] - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with WTI crude oil signaling a potential sell-off [1] Group 2 - The sentiment in the oil market is currently uncertain, with market participants advised to monitor developments closely [1]