Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: After the rebound, the market will consolidate in the short term [3] Group 3 - Relevant logic: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, proposed to reform and improve real estate development, financing, and sales systems and promote the ready - made housing sales system. From January to September, 24,300 urban old community renovation projects were newly started, and 11 regions completed the annual plan. Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 52.99%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year - on - year; the average start - up rate was 68.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year - on - year [2] - Market performance: Steel products rose first and then fell last week, with the overall center of gravity moving up. The rise was mainly due to macro - level benefits such as the consensus reached in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the macro - level benefits were realized, the fundamentals of the varieties changed little. Although some steel mills in Hebei were restricted due to environmental protection, the weekly supply - demand and inventory changes were neutral, and the low - level downstream situation limited the increase in steel prices [2] - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Hot News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fuan, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, funds such as special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be used comprehensively to optimize government investment directions and encourage private capital to participate in major project construction; tax, social security, and transfer payments will be adjusted to optimize the income distribution structure and boost consumption; and work will be done to replace the existing implicit debts of local governments, with strict accountability for illegal debt-raising and false debt reduction [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, pointed out that the real estate development, financing, and sales systems need to be reformed and improved. In terms of commercial housing sales, the spot sales system will be promoted to fundamentally prevent delivery risks; for pre-sales, the supervision of pre-sale funds will be standardized to protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that soybean meal and corn series options contracts will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session on January 30). The first batch of contracts will start with the series options contracts corresponding to soybean meal M2607 and corn C2607 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. Industry insiders believe that the policy further improves the existing gold market policy, better distinguishes the commodity and financial attributes of gold, and the adjustment of the VAT policy for gold purchased on the exchange is expected to make the gold market consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and PVC [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a 3.11% increase; precious metals had a 29.39% increase; oilseeds and oils had a 9.56% increase; non-ferrous metals had a 23.08% increase; soft commodities had a 2.66% increase; coal, coke, and steel mines had a 13.49% increase; energy had a 2.87% increase; chemicals had a 10.78% increase; grains had a 1.15% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.92% increase [4] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel mines, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.81%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.99%; the SSE 50 had a daily decline of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 12.17%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.94%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.74%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 28.04%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.26%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 16.30%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 29.15%; the German DAX had a daily decline of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 20.34%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.12%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 31.37%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 18.89% [6] Fixed Income - The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.04%, an annual decrease of 0.22%; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.45%; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.42% [6] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.59%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 1.96%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -15.36%; London spot gold had a daily decline of -0.54%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 52.53%; LME copper had a daily decline of -0.23%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 24.03%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 30.63% [6] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.19%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -8.07%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 3.13%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 0.52% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment, with major indices collectively declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell over 2% [2][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included pharmaceuticals (up 2.42%), media (up 2.39%), and retail (up 2.08%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (down 4.07%), electronics (down 3.06%), and non-bank financials (down 1.31%) [3] Concept Index Performance - Notable concept indices included recombinant proteins (up 3.72%), cell immunotherapy (up 3.58%), and AI corpus (up 3.42%) [3] - Underperforming concept indices included cultivated diamonds (down 2.96%) and storage chips (down 2.02%) [3] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6] - It is suggested to focus on sectors such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, transportation, non-bank financials, and coal for potential investment opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from pre-sale to current housing sales is a necessary choice for the real estate industry, marking a shift from "high-speed growth" to "high-quality development" [10] Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need to reform and improve the real estate development, financing, and sales systems, advocating for a shift to current housing sales to fundamentally prevent delivery risks [1][2] - The new policy aims to create a dual system of "current housing as the mainstay, pre-sale as a supplement," enhancing fund supervision for pre-sale projects to ensure buyer rights [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The reliance on pre-sale systems has been a critical factor in the rapid development of urban housing, with pre-sale funds historically accounting for over 30% of developers' incoming funds [5] - As the market shifts from a seller's to a buyer's market, the drawbacks of the pre-sale system have become more apparent, leading to a demand for "delivery guarantees" from buyers [5][7] Group 3: Implementation Challenges - The transition to current housing sales faces challenges, particularly regarding the financial pressure on developers, as the absence of pre-sale funds may lead to operational crises for over 50% of developers [7][8] - Regional disparities complicate the implementation of the new policy, with stronger financial capabilities in first-tier cities compared to smaller cities, where many developers may struggle [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing policy push is expected to create a new ecosystem in the real estate sector, with stronger, more capable firms dominating the market while smaller firms may either niche down or face consolidation [9][10] - The market is anticipated to return to its "residential essence," with clearer commodity attributes for housing, leading to more rational buyer decisions and stable price fluctuations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector through various key tasks and reforms aimed at ensuring safety, improving housing quality, and optimizing housing supply [2][3]. Group 1: Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - Optimize the supply of affordable housing [3] - Promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market [3] - Reform and improve the systems for real estate development, financing, and sales [3] - Implement housing quality enhancement projects [3] - Enhance property service quality [3] - Establish a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [3] Group 2: Safety Management and Quality Assurance - Accelerate the establishment of a safety inspection system for houses to identify risks [4] - Create a housing safety management fund to address repair funding issues, consisting of personal and public accounts [5][6] - Develop a housing quality safety insurance system to enhance safety assurance capabilities through market mechanisms [7] Group 3: Market Development and Regulation - Establish a mechanism linking population changes to housing demand and land supply, ensuring a balanced real estate market [8] - Implement city-specific policies for real estate market regulation, granting local governments autonomy in policy adjustments [8] - Promote the development of a rental market and protect the legal rights of both landlords and tenants [8] Group 4: Sales and Service Improvements - Advance the current housing sales system to ensure transparency and reduce delivery risks [9] - Expand the coverage of property services and explore integrated service models that combine property management with lifestyle services [10][11] Group 5: Housing Quality and Community Development - Implement projects aimed at enhancing housing quality, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability [13] - Promote comprehensive urban renewal initiatives that improve housing, neighborhoods, and community facilities [12][13] Group 6: Affordable Housing Supply - Optimize the supply of affordable housing by establishing a multi-tiered housing security system [14][15] - Ensure fair and transparent management of affordable housing applications and allocations, enhancing the effectiveness of housing security measures [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the real estate sector, outlining key tasks and reforms to ensure sustainable growth and safety in housing [1]. Group 1: Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - Optimize the supply of affordable housing [1] - Promote the continuous and healthy development of the real estate market [1] - Reform and improve the systems for real estate development, financing, and sales [1] - Implement housing quality improvement projects [1] - Enhance property service quality [1] - Establish a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [1] Group 2: Safety Management Initiatives - Establish a housing safety inspection system to identify risks promptly [2] - Create a housing safety management fund to address repair funding issues, consisting of personal and public accounts [2] - Develop a housing quality safety insurance system to enhance safety assurance through market mechanisms [3] Group 3: Promoting Sustainable Market Development - Use housing development planning and annual plans to establish a mechanism linking population changes with housing demand and land supply [4] - Implement city-specific policies to give local governments autonomy in real estate market regulation [4] - Standardize the rental market and support the growth of professional rental enterprises [4] Group 4: Enhancing Property Services - Expand the coverage of property services and explore integrated service models combining property and lifestyle services [5] - Strengthen self-regulation within the property service industry to improve service quality [5] - Address community needs through enhanced property services, including elderly care and childcare [5] Group 5: Quality Improvement in Housing - Focus on building safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing while improving standards across all stages of housing development [6] - Promote urban renewal initiatives that enhance the quality of housing, neighborhoods, and communities [6] Group 6: Affordable Housing Supply Optimization - Establish a housing guarantee waiting list system to match the needs of beneficiaries with available housing [7] - Develop a multi-tiered housing guarantee system primarily based on public rental housing and affordable rental housing [8] - Ensure fairness and transparency in the management of affordable housing applications and allocations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, outlining key tasks and reforms necessary for achieving this goal [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - Optimize the supply of affordable housing [2] - Promote sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market [2] - Reform and improve the systems for real estate development, financing, and sales [2] - Implement housing quality improvement projects [2] - Enhance property service quality [2] - Establish a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of buildings [2] Group 2: Safety Management and Quality Assurance - Accelerate the establishment of a building safety inspection system, safety management funds, and quality insurance to strengthen safety guarantees [3][5] - The building safety inspection system aims to identify safety risks promptly [4] - The safety management fund will address repair funding issues, consisting of personal and public accounts [4] Group 3: Market Development and Regulation - Determine housing demand based on population changes and arrange land supply scientifically to achieve a balance in the real estate market [6] - Standardize the rental market and cultivate professional rental enterprises to protect the legal rights of both parties [7] - Promote a "see and buy" system in property sales to fundamentally prevent delivery risks [8] Group 4: Property Service Enhancement - Expand the coverage of property services and explore a model combining property services with lifestyle services [9][10] - Strengthen self-discipline in the property service industry and enhance service quality to address residents' daily needs [10] Group 5: Housing Quality Improvement - Implement projects to enhance housing quality, focusing on creating safe, comfortable, and green living spaces [11][12] - Promote the renovation of urban villages and old housing to improve living conditions [12] Group 6: Affordable Housing Supply - Optimize the supply of affordable housing by establishing a multi-tiered housing security system [13][14] - Create a housing guarantee waiting list to accurately match the needs of beneficiaries with available housing resources [14]

Group 1 - A-share market sees a rise in certain real estate stocks, with Da Ming City hitting the daily limit, followed by increases in Zhujiang Shares, Yunnan Chengtou, and China Merchants Shekou [1] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng emphasizes the need for a scientific and robust monetary policy system and comprehensive macro-prudential management to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, advocates for reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems, promoting the sale of existing homes to fundamentally mitigate delivery risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on reforms in sales, financing, and development systems to enhance market stability and protect consumer rights [1]. Group 1: Reform and Regulation - The article advocates for the implementation of a "current housing sales system" to ensure transparency and reduce delivery risks, allowing buyers to see what they are purchasing [2]. - It highlights the importance of regulating pre-sale funds to protect the legal rights of homebuyers [2]. Group 2: Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - The article outlines several key tasks for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including optimizing the supply of affordable housing and ensuring the sustainable health of the real estate market [3]. - It calls for reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems, as well as initiatives to improve housing quality and property service standards [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Management - The article stresses the need to align housing demand with population changes and to scientifically arrange land supply, creating a linkage mechanism among population, housing, land, and finance [4]. - It advocates for tailored policies based on local conditions, granting city governments the autonomy to adjust real estate policies accordingly [4]. - The article also emphasizes the importance of developing a regulated rental market and fostering professional rental enterprises to enhance industry oversight and service capabilities [4].