考虑2025 年猪价或低于2024 全年,我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为72.67/89.36/108.63 亿元,同 比分别+19.55%/+22.98%/+21.57%,归母净利润分别为4.81/7.82/11.12 亿元,同比分 别-7.33%/+62.76%/+42.18% ,EPS 分别为0.94/1.53/2.18 元/股。公司出栏增速较高且成本水平偏低,维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示:发生疫病的风险,生猪价格长期处于低位的风险,原材料价格波动的风险。 生猪出栏高增,板块实现较好盈利 2025Q1 公司销售生猪83.30 万头(同比+63%),其中销售商品猪81.66 万头,商品猪销售均价15.00 元/公斤。 受益于猪价同比回升,以及公司成本持续下降,公司该板块实现较好盈利。展望全年,我们认为公司2025 全 年出栏目标有望达成,板块有望维持较好利润。 出栏有望加速,维持"买入"评级 事件 公司披露2025 年一季度报告,第一季度实现营收16.45 亿元,同比增长73.45%;归母净利润1.30 亿元,同比扭 亏为盈。 猪价同比回升叠加成本改善,利润率同比提升2025Q1 公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][30]. Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in net profit for 2024, benefiting from rising pig prices and improved breeding costs, with a revenue of 7.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.09%, and a net profit of 39.32 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year [1][8]. - The company has expanded its breeding capabilities through the acquisition of Tianxin Breeding, enhancing its core competitiveness in pig breeding and extending its operations across the entire pig industry chain [2][30]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in pig output, with a forecasted output of approximately 4.9 million heads in 2025, 5.5 million in 2026, and 5.9 million in 2027 [21][30]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7,045 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1%, and a net profit of 39 million yuan [4][29]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 857 million yuan, accounting for 12.16% of total revenue [17]. - The company’s total assets were reported at 12,358 million yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 74% [31]. Business Segmentation - The pig breeding business is projected to generate revenues of 5.382 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 9.8% [27]. - The slaughtering and cold storage business is expected to contribute 686 million yuan in revenue for 2024, with a gross margin of 3.8% [24]. - The frozen meat business is forecasted to generate 321 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 0.8% [24]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.892 billion yuan in 2025, 8.547 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.775 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 36 million yuan, 35 million yuan, and 17 million yuan respectively [29][30]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.03 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and 0.01 yuan respectively [30].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 10 年 月 日 海大集团（002311.SZ） 公司发布 2025 年第一季度业绩预告，预计 2025 年第一季度实现归母净 利润 12-13 亿元，同比增长 39.42%-51.04%，扣非净利润 12-13 亿元， 同比增长 57.96%-71.13%，一季度业绩超预期。 业绩表现亮眼，饲料主业销量实现较好增长。一季度公司饲料外销量约 595 万吨，同比增长约 25%，同时公司积极开拓海外市场，通过在越南、 印尼、厄瓜多尔、埃及等目标市场当地建厂，海外业务不断取得进展。展 望未来，公司将坚定不移向短期 2025 年 300 万吨外销增量、中期 2030 年有望达到 5150 万吨，目标清晰，可兑现度高。 生猪利润超预期，养殖业务稳健推进。专业能力持续提升，公司摸索并推 行"外购仔猪公司+家庭农场、锁定利润、对冲风险"的运营模式，生猪 套保业务实现良好利润。在生猪养殖成本逐步下降下，2025 年全年公司 生猪养殖业务有望实现较好利润。 另外，公司饲料行业受关税政策对产业影响较少。近年来，饲料行业供应 链条安全、可控，原材料玉米以国内自产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 to 1.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.42% to 51.04% [1] - The feed business has shown strong sales growth, with external feed sales reaching approximately 5.95 million tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 25% [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence by establishing local factories in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Egypt [1] - The pig farming business is expected to generate good profits in 2025 due to a decrease in breeding costs and the implementation of a risk-hedging operational model [1] - The company has a clear target for external sales growth, aiming for an increase of 3 million tons in the short term for 2025 and 51.5 million tons by 2030 [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 104.715 billion yuan in 2022, with projected revenues of 116.117 billion yuan in 2023 and 127.923 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 21.6%, 10.9%, and 10.2% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.957 billion yuan in 2022, with projections of 4.516 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.229 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 64.8% and 15.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.78 yuan in 2022 to 3.14 yuan in 2025 [4] - The company maintains a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 20.3% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 20.2% in 2025 [4] Industry Insights - The feed industry is less affected by tariff policies due to a stable supply chain, with domestic corn production and diversified import channels for soybeans and soybean meal [2] - The company has developed various low-protein formula technologies and raw material substitution techniques, reducing reliance on imported soybeans [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while pig prices are seasonally declining, they are performing better than market expectations due to reduced supply pressure and price differentials in the industry [1][3] - In February, the national breeding sow capacity increased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, suggesting a weak de-capacity trend in the medium term [1][3] - The industry is still in a capacity release phase, with a notable increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, reaching 7.32 million heads in February, a year-on-year increase of 36% [2] Group 2 - The average slaughter weight of pigs has slightly increased, with major listed companies reporting weights of 121 kg and 132 kg, reflecting a marginal rise [2] - The overall profitability in pig farming is narrowing due to rising feed prices, particularly for soybean meal and corn, which have led to a rebound in feed costs [1][3] - The investment outlook suggests that high-quality pig companies may achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets, despite the overall pressure on pig prices in the first half of the year [3]