Group 1 - Recent capital inflow into the aquaculture sector, with the aquaculture ETF (159865) seeing over 250 million yuan in net inflows over three trading days [1] - According to Guojin Securities, after a period of adjustment, the valuation of pig farming enterprises is at a bottom range, with leading companies expected to maintain good profitability in the short term [1] - If supply pressure leads to capacity reduction in the industry in the second half of the year, leading companies can still rely on cost advantages to steadily increase market share, indicating a stabilization at the bottom of the sector's prosperity [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which has a high "pig" component, presenting investment opportunities for interested investors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector through the aquaculture ETF's linked fund (012725) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for significant increases or decreases. - The market has already priced in the reality of an oversupply of pigs. The futures market, especially the near - term contracts, has been falling and is at a discount to the spot market. Over - shorting is not cost - effective. The strategy should focus on potential low - level rebounds due to factors like consumption and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts continues [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since August, domestic pig prices have mainly fluctuated downward with a small range. The planned monthly slaughter volume was high, slaughter volume was significantly large, the average weight of group - farmed pigs for sale continued to decline, the number of pigs sold by散户 increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained high. In September, the theoretical and planned slaughter volume remains high, but factors such as post - cooling pig retention, increased demand in cool weather, state purchases, and festivals may limit price drops. Pig prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize, with a slight decline overall [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, a slight monthly decrease of 10,000, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve next year's supply. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [11]. - **Demand Side**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell contracts 11 and 01 after a rebound. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 for a 2 - month period, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Since August, domestic pig prices have fluctuated downward. In September, prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize with a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The futures market has priced in the pessimistic outlook in advance, and the basis and monthly spreads have fluctuated within a narrow range [25]. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, slightly down from the previous month, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, but more evidence is needed to determine if capacity reduction is effective [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [42][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed**: No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [50]. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume and Related Indicators**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. Despite the weak pig prices compared to the same period in previous years, large - scale losses have not occurred because of the low cost [69]. 6. Inventory Side - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product inventory is slowly increasing [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today's spot price of live pigs has limited upward momentum, showing a stable and slightly weak trend. The overall futures market is still trading under the pressure of increasing inventory, with short - term futures showing a volatile and weak trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Spot Price and Futures Price - On September 3, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The prices in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. For example, Shandong dropped by 0.17 yuan/kg, and Hebei dropped by 0.13 yuan/kg [3]. - The price of LH2511 was 13,550 yuan, down 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,915 yuan, up 55 yuan; LH2603 was 13,130 yuan, up 35 yuan [3]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - According to Yongyi data, the monthly live pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The weight decline was slower than expected, and secondary fattening was relatively stable [3]. - This week, the average national slaughter weight was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. Group enterprises' progress in completing their tasks was slow, and there was still a shift of production capacity to later periods [3]. 3.3 Market of Piglets - This week, the average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from last week. Recently, piglet prices have been continuously declining. Currently, it is the off - season for piglet replenishment, and farmers' demand for piglets has significantly weakened [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The effect of weight reduction in live pig breeding has not been obvious recently. There is still pressure on the spot market, but the process of capacity reduction takes time. Although the spot price has risen in the short term, the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the hog price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics - On September 3, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs. The main hog contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 208 lots today, with a holding of about 73,600 lots. The highest price was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,550 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard hogs may strengthen oscillatory. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish view believes that the weight - reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for hog prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish view holds that the farming sector has reduced the weight of hogs, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support the hog price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - On September 3, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day, and the price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.84 yuan/kg. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 55 yuan/ton or 0.4%, the 03 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton or 0.27%, the 05 contract increased by 75 yuan/ton or 0.55%, the 07 contract increased by 95 yuan/ton or 0.67%, the 09 contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton or 0.64%, and the 11 contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, national corn purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends are shown through charts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. There is a likelihood of a monthly increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs provides some support to pig prices. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 2nd, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,076 lots today, with a position of about 73,400 lots. The highest price of the day was 13,645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,500 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,595 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **National average live pig slaughter price**: On September 2nd, it was 14.03 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.36%. - **Provincial - level live pig slaughter prices**: In Henan, it was 14.08 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day, a decrease of 1.61%. In Sichuan, it was 13.84 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day, an increase of 1.24%. - **Futures prices**: The prices of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the 01 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.14%; the 11 contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. - **Main contract basis**: In Henan, it was 485 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 29.2% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not repeated here [14].

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological has shown significant growth in its performance for the first half of the year, with notable increases in revenue and profit metrics, despite mixed results across different business segments [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 8.847 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.68% [2] - Total profit reached 421 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.29% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 338 million, up 22.27% year-on-year [2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 314 million, an increase of 16.17% year-on-year [2] Business Segment Performance - Feed business sales volume was 134.15 thousand tons, with sales revenue of 2.434 billion, a decline of 14.24% year-on-year [2] - Pig sales reached 1.5282 million heads, a growth of 9.05%, with sales revenue of 2.849 billion, down 0.95% year-on-year [2] - Animal vaccine business sales revenue was 482 million, with growth details not specified [2] - Protein oil business sales revenue was 1.449 billion, showing a significant increase of 97.60% year-on-year [2] - Corn storage business sales revenue was 1.305 billion, up 72.32% year-on-year [2] Cost Management and Strategic Developments - Self-breeding costs decreased to 12.55 per kilogram, with potential for further reduction as piglet prices decline [3] - The company is in the process of acquiring Qiangdu Livestock, which has shown strong operational performance and cost competitiveness [3] - The protein oil business has seen a significant increase in profitability, with a recent joint venture contributing positively [3] - The corn storage business has turned profitable after a period of losses, with expectations for continued good performance [3] - TianKang Pharmaceutical's listing progress is ongoing, with recent inquiries and updates planned [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a steady development in its pig farming business, with a significant improvement in breeding costs and stable cash flow [8] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Qiangdu Livestock, which focuses on pig farming and sales, adopting a "self-breeding and self-raising" model to enhance its farming scale [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 169.6 billion, 178.6 billion, and 186.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 6.19 billion, 9.39 billion, and 11.61 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.68%, and a net profit of 338 million yuan, up 22.27% year-on-year [8] - The average breeding costs for the first and second quarters of 2025 were 13.2 yuan/kg and 12.6 yuan/kg respectively, indicating significant cost improvements [8] - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.619 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 109.4% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue and profit figures for the company are as follows: - 2025E: Revenue of 16,960 million yuan, net profit of 619 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 17,859 million yuan, net profit of 939 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 18,642 million yuan, net profit of 1,161 million yuan [6][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On August 27, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day; the slaughter price in Henan was 13.68 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan or 0.88%; the slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan or 0.81% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.85%; the 03 contract was 13235 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.38%; the 05 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.29%; the 07 contract was 14165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 09 contract was 13445 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan or 1.61%; the 11 contract was 13745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan or 78.33% from the previous day [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report shows data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On August 27, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 430 lots [2]. - The short - term decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig contract (LH2511) added 1323 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 71,600 lots. The highest price was 13865 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13700 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13745 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen fluctuantly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of the spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased sales volume and reduced breeding costs [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 49.852 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.91% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.475 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 159.12% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.5252 yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the sale of live pigs amounted to 32.735 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.26% [1] - The growth in live pig revenue was primarily attributed to an increase in sales volume [1] Cost Management - The company has been implementing refined management practices, contributing to overall production stability [1] - The decline in feed raw material prices has led to a significant reduction in breeding costs compared to the previous year [1] - As a result, the profitability of the pig farming business has seen a substantial year-on-year increase [1]

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.72% as of August 26, 2025, with key stocks such as Xinghuo Technology (600866) rising by 2.04% and Muyuan Foods (002714) by 2.02% [1] - Pig prices are showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged decline, with major quotes in northern regions remaining stable and leading enterprises in Henan experiencing slight increases [1] - The government plans to conduct a central frozen pork reserve collection, with a notice issued for a bidding transaction of 10,000 tons of frozen pork on August 25 [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF (159867) closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 64.83% of the index, with Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) being the largest contributors [3] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of a balanced investment strategy in the pig farming industry, predicting a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices by 2025, while costs are expected to decrease, leading to better-than-expected profits for quality pig farming companies [1] - The price of yellow chickens is correlated with pig prices, and given the low supply side, there is potential for price increases in the future [1]