货币政策调整

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美银警示:通胀高企叠加关税冲击 美联储9月降息条件未成熟
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 23:29
此外,美银的研报还提到,近期非农就业数据的下修增加了"被动宽松"的可能性——这种情形指的是由 于就业市场的疲软而非通胀得到控制所导致的货币政策调整。美银分析师解释道,"被动宽松"通常意味 着经济状况恶化到一定程度,迫使中央银行采取行动来刺激经济增长。 尽管如此,美银仍提醒投资者关注未来数月内的关键经济指标,包括就业、通胀和GDP增长等,因为这 些数据的表现将直接影响到美联储是否会在今年晚些时候考虑调整其货币政策。特别是在当前全球经济 不确定性增加的背景下,任何关于货币政策变动的消息都可能对市场产生重大影响。 编辑:崔凯 转自:新华财经 新华财经北京8月12日电 美国银行(Bank of America)最新发布的研究报告称,面对持续高于2%目标的 通胀水平以及新实施关税政策可能带来的物价压力,美联储在即将到来的9月议息会议上缺乏足够的理 由进行降息。 美银分析师指出,当前经济数据尚未提供充分支持以改变现有货币政策立场,并警告称主张降息的声音 可能低估了劳动力市场结构性变化及通胀持续性的风险。 报告特别强调,最近实施的关税措施恐将引发"更为显著且持久的"价格波动。"如果美联储在9月份决定 降息,可能会面临在通胀 ...
欧元创近三年半新高 市场对美元信心动摇
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-08 08:00
货币金融机构官方论坛24日发布的报告显示,多国央行正在重新思考其金融资产配置策略。去年, 在受访央行中最受欢迎的货币是美元,而今年美元已跌至第七位。高达70%的受访央行表示,美国的政 治环境阻碍了他们投资美元。 欧元对美元汇率24日再次突破1比1.16关口,高点触及1比1.1641,创下2021年10月以来新高。近段 时间,在地区冲突频发、各国央行政策博弈等因素影响下,欧元展现出韧性,日益被市场视为美元的替 代资产。 美国总统特朗普于美国东部时间23日傍晚在社交媒体宣布,以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成 一致。冲突的阶段性缓和促使资金从美元等传统避险资产涌出,欧元随之走强。同时,油价大幅下跌也 为欧元提供支撑。欧洲作为主要的石油和液化天然气进口方,能源成本降低直接利好其经济基本面。 近期市场对欧元区经济的信心有所回升,其中德国经济复苏迹象明显。6月,德国慕尼黑经济研究 所商业景气指数升至88.4,创近一年新高。慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特说:"德国经济正在 缓慢恢复信心。" 新华社法兰克福6月25日电 综述|欧元创近三年半新高 市场对美元信心动摇 货币政策方面,欧洲央行本月初将欧元区三大关键利率分 ...
美国经济数据造假实锤?中国等这个机会已经太久,美国想翻身难了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 03:55
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, which has shaken global markets and raised concerns about the reliability of economic statistics [1][3][5] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July added only 73,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, contradicting previous claims of a strong job market [3][5] - The revisions for May and June were drastic, with May's jobs adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating a potential manipulation of data [3][5][9] Group 2 - The sudden drop in employment data has led to a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, with calls for immediate rate cuts emerging [5][11] - The situation presents a unique opportunity for China to adjust its monetary policy in response to the changing global economic landscape [7][11] - Emerging markets are likely to reassess their monetary policies independently of the Federal Reserve, potentially breaking the dependency on the "dollar hegemony" [13][15]
贵金属期货涨跌不一 沪银主力涨幅为0.82%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-07 08:04
Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 7, with Shanghai gold futures at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1] - International precious metals also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, while COMEX silver was at 38.24 USD per ounce, up 0.80% [1] Price Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 7 were as follows: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 782.28 CNY, peaked at 785.00 CNY, and bottomed at 781.08 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 9163.00 CNY, peaked at 9244.00 CNY, and bottomed at 9155.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3431.80 USD, peaked at 3449.00 USD, and bottomed at 3430.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 37.94 USD, peaked at 38.24 USD, and bottomed at 37.94 USD per ounce [2] Economic Factors - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD of 10-year bonds, with a bid yield of 4.255%, the lowest since December of the previous year, indicating weak buyer demand, particularly from international buyers [3] - The auction results led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the dollar index, which supported gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook's comments on non-farm payroll data adjustments heightened market expectations for potential changes in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - On August 6, COMEX gold experienced high volatility, closing at 3431.8 USD per ounce, down 0.08%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 781.96 CNY per gram, down 0.29% [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, especially if trade negotiations do not yield expected results [4]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250807
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. In the macro - financial sector, the short - term trend of stock index futures is strong, and the short - term strategy of treasury bond futures can consider a steepening strategy. In the black sector, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the agricultural products sector, most varieties face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand relationship of crude oil is changing, and other products follow different trends based on their own fundamentals [9][10][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association solicits opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has once again reached 3600 points, and margin trading balances have returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time since July 2015 [6]. - US President Trump signs executive orders to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [6]. - Express delivery prices in Guangdong have increased, with the base price per ticket rising by 0.4 yuan [6]. - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Fed's Daly says policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and there is still much work to do to bring inflation down to 2% [7]. 2. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to continue the trend - following idea. The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend recently, with increased trading volume and margin trading balances reaching a high level. Trump's tariff plan on chips and semiconductors may have an impact. The stock index has rebounded and returned to the trend after a pull - back [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - A short - term steepening strategy can be considered. The capital market is loose, and the bond market is under pressure but not weak. Attention should be paid to whether the capital level can be maintained at 1.3 - 1.35% [10]. 3. Black Sector Overall Market - Policy continues to emphasize "anti - involution" with a looser tone. Market sentiment has been realized in previous price increases, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is seasonally weak, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong. Raw material prices are firm, and steel and ore prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel spot prices have increased slightly, but trading volume has weakened compared to the previous day. Iron ore prices in Shandong are basically stable. The price increase is due to the rise in raw material prices such as coking coal [13][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and trading should be cautious. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also downward pressure factors. The exchange has adjusted trading limits, and "anti - involution" has affected the market [16]. Ferroalloys - The price bubble of silicon - based ferroalloys has disappeared. The medium - to - long - term view is to short on rallies. Strategies such as long the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or reverse spreads of silicomanganese can be considered [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and an expected increase in factory inventory [18]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. Refinery production is accelerating, and demand is weak, so zinc prices are expected to decline [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The market expects a production cut in Jiangxi. If it happens, it will be beneficial to lithium carbonate prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong [21]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of large - scale manufacturers. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and downstream photovoltaic policies [22]. Polysilicon - The policy expectation has cooled down, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt games. The supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to whether policies can boost terminal demand [23]. 5. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. International and domestic demand is weak, and there are concerns about future production increases [25][26]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increases in imported processed sugar. However, low - absorption demand during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays should be noted. International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [28][29]. Eggs - The 09 contract price has reached a record low. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious about bottom - fishing. Supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and demand is currently weak [31]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples [32][33]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Supply and demand are both under pressure, but there is also bottom support. It is recommended to focus on market sentiment and policy implementation [34]. Red Dates - It is recommended to observe. The production is still uncertain, and the market is affected by various news [35]. Pigs - Short - term spot market is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy [35]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is increasing supply, but the growth space is limited. Demand is affected by trade uncertainties. The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. The market has no main logic, and factors such as sanctions and seasonal demand affect the price [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [40]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short - term. Short - term long positions can be considered after a pull - back, but be cautious about chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - Methanol follows the overall commodity trend. Supply is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is recommended to sell call options [42]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is obvious. The price is expected to decline, and a short - bias strategy is recommended [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil. The market has no main logic, and it is in a seasonal off - season with slow inventory reduction [45]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices are in a downward trend. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term. The price may follow crude oil [46]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [47]. Logs - Log prices have increased. The market is affected by capital, and short - term observation is recommended. Hedging can be considered at high prices [47]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upward. Domestic demand has improved, and export factors may support the price, but the actual export situation needs further observation [48].
美联储戴利:未来几个月可能需要调整政策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 00:09
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, indicates that policy adjustments may be necessary in the coming months due to a softening labor market and the need to recalibrate monetary policy to address various risks affecting its targets [1] Group 1 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, and further slowdown is deemed undesirable [1] - Tariffs are unlikely to continue pushing inflation in a manner that would require monetary policy intervention [1] - The Federal Reserve has significant work ahead to bring inflation down to the target rate of 2% [1]
特朗普开始面试鲍威尔接班人
第一财经· 2025-08-07 00:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll report has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with several officials signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2][4]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating a potential turning point in the economy [4]. - Federal Reserve officials, including Cook, Waller, and Bowman, have expressed concerns about the labor market and suggested that rate cuts may be necessary to prevent further deterioration [4][5]. Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 92%, with a 50% chance of a total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year [6]. - President Trump is actively working to shape a more compliant Federal Reserve, with recent appointments reflecting political influences [8][9]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has opened a vacancy that Trump plans to fill soon, with potential candidates being considered for both the vacant position and the future chairmanship [9][10].
再有美联储高官放鸽!理事库克称就业数据预示经济"转折点",暗示近期或降息
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-06 20:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the July employment report is concerning and may indicate a turning point for the U.S. economy, as stated by Federal Reserve Governor Cook [1] - The U.S. labor market has sharply cooled in recent months, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, which is below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, reflecting the labor market's instability [1] Group 2 - Ongoing uncertainty is likened to a tax burden for businesses, with leaders spending significant time managing this uncertainty, as noted by Cook and supported by Boston Fed President Susan Collins [2] - Collins emphasized that uncertainty affects not only business investment but also pricing decisions, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among businesses, especially after experiencing high inflation [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the employment report and other signs of economic slowdown suggest that a rate cut may be appropriate in the "near term," with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2]
巴西央行:未来货币政策步骤可作调整,若有必要,将毫不犹豫地恢复加息周期。
news flash· 2025-07-30 21:42
Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil indicates that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted and will not hesitate to resume the interest rate hike cycle if necessary [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank is open to modifying its monetary policy approach based on economic conditions [1] - There is a clear signal that the Central Bank is prepared to take decisive action to combat inflation if required [1] - The statement reflects the Central Bank's commitment to maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation [1]
美银:贸易协议减少不确定性,日本央行本周或调整政策基调
news flash· 2025-07-28 05:02
Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a shift towards a less dovish stance in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, influenced by a recent trade agreement with the United States that has reduced significant uncertainty [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming meeting [1] - There is speculation that the Bank of Japan may adopt a less dovish tone due to the recent trade agreement with the United States [1] - **Impact of Trade Agreement** - The trade agreement between Japan and the United States has alleviated a major source of uncertainty, which the Bank of Japan previously cited as a reason for delaying tightening policies [1]