当地时间9月17日，如舆论预测，美联储宣布下调联邦基准利率25个基点至4.00%～4.25%的区间。这不仅是2024年底以来的首 次降息，也是在就业市场走弱、政治压力高企、全球市场高度关注下的一次"聚光灯会议"。从声明到点阵图，再到主席鲍威尔 的记者会，释放出的信号既有政策方向，也试图表达美联储捍卫其独立性的立场。 △CNN报道，美联储9个月来首次宣布降息 降息背景：就业市场疲软与政治风暴 时间仿佛有意安排，去年9月18日，美联储以一次性50个基点的幅度开启了最受瞩目的降息周期；而一年后的9月17日，美联储 再次选择九月"动手"，但这一次，只是象征性下调25个基点。前后仅隔一年，同样降息，力度与氛围却大相径庭，这种反差可 说是观察美联储政策与美国经济政治环境变化的绝佳窗口。 去年秋天，美国经济明显出现降温苗头，政策环境也相对单纯，美联储果断降息50个基点，幅度大于市场预期，释放出了"避免 硬着陆"的决心。相比之下，本次降息更像是风险管理型的小步调整。 失业率上升、招聘放缓，让就业市场成为美联储最担心的下行风险。通胀虽有所缓和，却依旧徘徊在目标之上。更复杂的是政 治氛围。特朗普政府反复要求加快降息，甚至对理事人 ...

美联储今年首次降息如约而至，并强调就业下行风险，预计年内还会降息两次。 美东时间9月17日周三，美联储宣布降息25个基点，本次降息幅度和行动时点符合市场预期。 值得注意的是，本次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、 就业下行风险增加 、 风险平衡已转变 ，删除劳动力市场稳健的表述。 只有特朗 普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票，主张降息50基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔随后在记者会上表示， 本次属风险管理型降息 ， FOMC对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 他认为，由于就业的下行风险有所增加 ，政策平衡发生了转变。因此，我们认为本次会议作出进一步接近"中性"政策立场的决定是合适的。 利率预测中位值显示联储预计 今年共降息三次，较上次增一次 ，即此次降息后，年内还有2次降息。 美联储如期降息25基点，预计年内还降2次 美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。 这是美联 储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。 美联储自去年9月到12月连续三次会议降息，本周再度行动后，本轮宽松周期的合计降息降幅达 ...

关于"为什么在通胀仍高时降息"，有记者提问，今日行动究竟是"保险式降息"，还是认为下行已成事 实？鲍威尔回应称，可以视为"风险管理型"的保险式降息：增长预测略有上调，但就业风险结构已显著 变化，就业"确实在冷却"，委员会需要把这点反映到政策设置中。有记者追问，如果就业放缓部分与移 民减速有关，而通胀仍明显高于目标，为何优先降息？鲍威尔解释，劳动力供给与需求双降，需求降得 更快，失业率上行即是证据；委员会必须在双重使命之间权衡，近期通胀二次上行的广泛性与持续性风 险相较数月前有所缓和，而就业的下行风险上升。 （原标题：鲍威尔称此次降息是风险管理决策 政策重点从通胀转向就业） 智通财经APP获悉，周三，在美联储公布最新议息决议后，主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，此次行动属 于"风险管理型"降息，随着就业市场降温、通胀仍高于目标且短期上行风险偏上，委员会选择朝更中性 的政策姿态迈出一步，同时保持"逐会决策(meeting-by-meeting)"，以便根据数据与风险再平衡灵活调 整。 从宏观现状出发，鲍威尔称近期指标显示经济动能放缓，今年上半年美国GDP增速约1.5%，低于去年 的2.5%；消费放缓是主要拖累，企业投资较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a strong internal consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, with only new member Milan opposing, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity and a deceleration in job growth, indicating a conflict between price stability and full employment [1][6] - The FOMC's forward guidance suggests a potential for two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with some members hinting at a more aggressive stance [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the two-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.55% due to cautious remarks from Powell [5] - The S&P 500 index experienced a brief rise before closing down 0.1%, indicating that the market had already priced in the decision [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with job growth nearly stagnant this year [5] - The Labor Department's revised data indicated nearly 1 million fewer jobs added than previously reported, heightening FOMC concerns about employment deterioration [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's current stance reflects a delicate balance between inflation pressures and a weakening labor market, with a focus on employment conditions [6][7] - Powell emphasized the need for data-driven decisions and maintaining the Fed's independence, acknowledging potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 50 basis points was a risk management decision, with limited support from the FOMC [3][6][7] - The current economic situation is rare, leading to significant divergence in interest rate forecasts among FOMC members [4][12] - Revised employment data indicates a weakening labor market, with rising unemployment and slowing job growth, raising substantial downside risks [4][10][22] Group 2 - Inflation transmission from tariffs has slowed, with a smaller impact than expected, contributing 0.3-0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation [5][11][56] - The Fed remains committed to maintaining its independence and did not directly respond to criticisms from Treasury Secretary [4][40] - The Fed's median forecast indicates GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end [10][12][66] Group 3 - The labor market is facing unique challenges, particularly for entry-level positions, with AI potentially impacting job opportunities for recent graduates [4][52][34] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a shift towards a more neutral policy stance in response to increasing employment risks [12][33][66] - The economic growth structure is complex, with strong corporate investment driven by AI, but concerns remain about the sustainability of this growth [45][66]