1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more obvious weakness on the demand side. It is expected that the short - term thread disk will mainly operate in a narrow range. The iron ore price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to operate in an oscillating manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Rebar - The rebar futures market was strongly oscillating. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 65,900 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume recovered. From January to August, national fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12.9%, manufacturing investment up 5.1%, and infrastructure investment up 2.0%. The production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel from January to August was 579.07 million, 671.81 million, and 982.17 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 1.1%, - 2.8%, and 5.5%. In August, the production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel was 69.79 million, 77.37 million, and 122.77 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.0%, - 0.7%, and 9.7%. The daily output of crude steel in August was 2.496 million tons, the lowest daily output in the same period since 2018, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that the short - term rebar disk will mainly operate in a narrow range [1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 first fell and then rose, closing at 796 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The market prices of mainstream port spot varieties were weakly operating. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. On the demand side, after the resumption of production from production restrictions, the molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons to 144.5612 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 530,000 tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level oscillating trend [1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 3.76%, with an increase of 33,039 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of main coking raw coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 35 yuan to 770 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal market was strongly operating. On the supply side, affected by safety accidents, the production recovery in some areas was slow, and market trading was still weak. On the demand side, the molten iron output returned to a high level, but after the second round of coke price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises was further compressed, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was not high. It is expected that the short - term coking coal disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1688.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton or 3.88%, with a reduction of 122 lots in positions. In the spot market, the spot price of coke in ports rose. On the supply side, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in East and North China was lowered by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented. The current coke supply was relatively loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills drove the rapid recovery of molten iron output, but the performance of the finished product market was flat, and the inventory accumulation of finished products still existed. Some steel mills began to control the arrival rhythm. It is expected that the short - term coke disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.5 Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5906 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 2156 lots to 327,700 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions were 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of manganese silicon futures moved up. The mainstream steel tender pricing has not been announced yet. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of manganese silicon was still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the recent output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of manganese ore was relatively firm, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4705 lots to 213,300 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions were about 5280 - 5330 yuan/ton, and the prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of ferrosilicon futures moved up. On the supply side, the short - term output of ferrosilicon was difficult to significantly decrease. On the demand side, the mainstream steel tender showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, and the demand of sample steel mills for ferrosilicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of ferrosilicon was rising, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will be affected by the black sector and mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and price differences between varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - This part includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][17][25]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry research field [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: Steel (narrow - range consolidation), Iron Ore (oscillation), Coking Coal (oscillation), Coke (oscillation), Manganese Silicon (oscillation), and Silicon Ferrosilicon (oscillation) [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a weak oscillation. High production, low demand, and inventory accumulation in the peak season pressured prices. However, as steel prices fell, cost support increased. It is expected to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose. Supply saw a decline in global shipments, and demand had a drop in iron - water production and a decline in the steel mill profitability rate. With multiple factors at play, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price dropped. Some mines in the main production areas resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious. After the first round of coke price cuts, the demand for coking coal was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures price declined. Coke production increased due to good profit margins, while steel mills' demand was mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement showed new progress, but production was at a relatively high level, and demand was not strong. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement increased, but production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%). Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. Production was high, demand was low, and inventory was accumulating. Cost support increased [1] - Iron Ore: The i2601 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (1.6%). Spot prices were strong. Global shipments decreased, and iron - water production and steel mill inventories declined [1] - Coking Coal: The 2601 contract closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (1.75%). Spot prices in some areas changed. Mines resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious [1] - Coke: The 2601 contract closed at 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (1.39%). Spot prices fell. Coke production increased, and steel mills' demand was for on - demand procurement [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price was 5838 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory increased [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price was 5620 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities had different spreads and changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 47.0, down 3.0 [3] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the 01 contract basis of rebar was 117.0, up 9.0 [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions had various changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3240.0, unchanged [3] - Profits and Spreads: Different profit indicators and inter - commodity spreads changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 47.0, down 19.2 [3] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts of various black commodities [17][18][19][21][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of different contracts of various black commodities [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio [41][42][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts presented the historical profits of rebar main contracts, including futures profits, long - process profits, and short - process profits [46][47][48][49][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The production of rebar has been rising, demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. Many steel mills are at the break - even point or in loss, leading to an increase in maintenance. [1] - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has decreased, and inventory has declined. [1] - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate weakly with fluctuations in the short - term. Due to factors such as the military parade and weak steel market, supply is affected, and demand is weakening. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term. For manganese silicon, production is increasing, and cost support is weak; for ferrosilicon, production is at a high level, and demand and cost factors are complex. [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Rebar**: As of September 1, some steel mills in Tangshan carried out blast furnace maintenance, with an estimated daily impact on hot metal of about 122,300 tons. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume rebounded. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The i2601 contract closed at 771.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were strong. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore demand decreased, and inventory at ports and steel mills declined. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5 yuan/ton on September 3, down 6 yuan/ton. Spot prices in the Mongolian coal market were mixed. Supply was tight in the short - term due to the military parade, and demand was weak due to high steel billet inventory and low steel prices. [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports were stable. Coking enterprise profits were good, but production was restricted, and demand was weakening due to the high - level inventory of steel billets and low steel prices. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded, with the main contract closing at 5744 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The market price was 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton. Production was increasing, and cost support was weak. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5528 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The market price was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was at a high level, and new steel tenders were ongoing with price cuts. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 spread was - 70.0 (up 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48.0 (up 2.0); for hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 spread was 12.0 (down 5.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 14.0 (down 3.0); for other varieties, the spreads also showed different changes. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 193.0 (down 18.0), and the basis of the 01 - contract was 123.0 (down 12.0). [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions of each variety had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai was 3240.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0), and the price in Beijing was 3180.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0). [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Rebar's long - process profit was - 17.2 (down 17.2), short - process profit was 25.6 (up 48.4), and various spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore spread also changed. [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][8][9][10][11][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of various varieties from 2022 - 2026. [17][18][19][21][22][23][24] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of various varieties from 2001 - 2026. [26][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025. [42][43][44][46] - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 - 2025. [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of black commodities research. [53][54]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market's main contradiction is high supply, weak - stable demand, and continuous inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. The short - term rebar futures may trade in a narrow range. [1] - The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. [1] - The coking coal and coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, affected by factors such as safety inspections, environmental restrictions, and demand changes. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited significant drivers. [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. National rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand changed, with supply - demand data looking weak. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 2%. Port spot prices were strong. Supply and demand factors were mixed, with a slight drop in global shipments and a decline in iron - water production. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.82%. Spot prices showed a mixed trend. Supply was restricted by safety inspections, and demand faced short - term pressure. [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Port spot prices fell. Supply was constrained by regional restrictions, and demand from steel mills slowed. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened slightly, closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Production costs were stable, and supply - demand was relatively balanced. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, closing at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. Spot prices in some regions dropped. Production was slightly down, and demand was still low. [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with their latest values and changes. [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities was presented, including their latest values and changes. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][9][10][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts displayed the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods. [16][17][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads of inter - period contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities. [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - commodity contracts (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities. [40][41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts depicted the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025. [45][46][49] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron Ore: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: On August 27, 2025, the rebar futures market had a narrow - range adjustment. The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 73,400 lots in positions. Spot prices slightly declined, and trading volume remained low. This week, the national building materials production increased by 53,900 tons to 4.0883 million tons, social inventory increased by 160,300 tons to 6.1761 million tons, factory inventory increased by 83,100 tons to 3.1516 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.8449 million tons. Since August, the supply - demand situation in the rebar spot market has continuously deteriorated, with increased supply, low demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the futures market. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron Ore**: On August 27, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract i2601 decreased to 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. In terms of supply, Australia's iron ore shipments increased significantly, Brazil's shipments declined from the high level, and the shipments from other countries decreased, resulting in a slight decline in global iron ore shipments. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2407,500 tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased, while the steel mills' inventory decreased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that iron ore prices will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 27, 2025, the coking coal futures market declined. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.56%, with an increase of 7067 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of gas - bearing raw coal in Xinzhou, Shanxi, decreased by 31 yuan to 506 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port dropping by 7 yuan to 978 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal remaining unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, and many coal mines in major production areas such as Shanxi have stopped production. The downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the procurement of raw materials is cautious. The eighth round of coke price increase has not received a response from steel mills. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: On August 27, 2025, the coke futures market declined. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton or 0.68%, with an increase of 442 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of port coke remained stable. After seven rounds of price increases, the profits of coke enterprises have improved significantly. However, due to environmental protection and other factors, some coke enterprises have had phased production restrictions, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The coke enterprises' inventory pressure is small. In terms of demand, traffic control in some areas has affected the arrival of coke at steel mills, and with the approaching military parade, more steel mills have production restrictions. The steel market outlook is weak, and steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, and the positions in the main contract increased by 6261 lots to 306,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has changed rapidly. On the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped in the late trading session, and the black - goods sector was weak, with coking coal leading the decline. Although the futures price has decreased, the spot market has strong price - holding sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the production cost of manganese silicon is still relatively stable, and the price of port manganese ore remains unchanged. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of manganese silicon has been increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. There is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals, and it is not sufficient to support a continuous upward movement of the manganese silicon futures price. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon futures price will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5634 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease, and the positions in the main contract decreased by 1503 lots to 218,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index in the late trading session affected the black - goods sector, and the ferrosilicon futures price dropped. In terms of fundamentals, the weekly production of ferrosilicon has been increasing, and the year - on - year increase exceeds 10%. The demand for steel has been suppressed, and the demand from sample steel mills for ferrosilicon has remained basically unchanged. The inventory pressure is acceptable, as the inventory of 60 sample enterprises, although still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, has decreased for two consecutive weeks. Overall, there are no major contradictions in the ferrosilicon fundamentals in the near term, and more attention should be paid to market sentiment. It is expected that ferrosilicon will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black - goods products, along with their changes compared to the previous period. For example, the 10 - 1 spread for rebar is - 61.0, with a 11.0 increase; the basis for the 10 - contract is 179.0, with an 8.0 decrease; and the spot price in Shanghai is 3290.0, with a 10.0 decrease [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits and spreads of different products is also presented. For instance, the rebar futures profit is - 46.3, with a 5.4 increase; the long - process profit is 34.6, with a 6.4 decrease; the short - process profit is 15.6, with a 10.0 decrease; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 238.0, with a 16.0 decrease; and the coke - to - iron - ore ratio is 2.2, with a 0.01 decrease [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025, which helps in observing the long - term price trends of these products [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis for various products are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, which can assist in analyzing the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19][20][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for each product, which is useful for understanding the price differences between different contract periods [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - product Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different products, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, rebar - to - coke ratio, coke - to - iron - ore ratio, coking coal - to - coke ratio, and ferrosilicon - manganese silicon spread, are shown, helping to analyze the relative price relationships between different black - goods products [42][43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit are provided, which can be used to assess the profitability of rebar production [46][48][52]. 3.3 Black Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - goods research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and achievements. For example, Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black - goods research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The supply - demand data of rebar has slightly improved, with production decreasing, inventory growth narrowing, and apparent demand slightly rising. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan and the macro - vacuum period contribute to this trend [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to experience narrow - range oscillations. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, while the number of blast furnace overhauls and restarts has changed, and the inventory situation is complex, with port inventory rising and steel mill inventory falling [1]. - The coking coal market is likely to fluctuate. The production of some coal mines has decreased, downstream procurement is cautious, but coke enterprises' profits have recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remains high [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm, but some areas are affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke is relatively stable [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is expected to fluctuate. The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remains high, steel mills' demand is weak, and the inventory is at a medium level in recent years [1]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to fluctuate. The production of silicon - iron is increasing, downstream price - pressing intention is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Market Performance | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | Rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,300 in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. | This week, the national rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons year - on - year; social inventory increased by 175,800 tons to 4.3251 million tons; factory inventory increased by 22,700 tons to 1.7453 million tons; apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Iron Ore | The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day, with 280,000 transactions and an increase of 11,000 in positions. Port spot prices rose. | Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 restarts. Hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2.4075 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 626,300 tons to 144.442 million tons, the number of ships in port decreased by 3, and steel mill inventory decreased by 810,000 tons to 90.65 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1147 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 649 in positions. The price of some coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong. | The production of some coal mines decreased due to accidents and safety inspections. Coke enterprises' profits recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remained high. | Oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 807 in positions. Port spot prices were stable. | Coke enterprises' profits improved, and production enthusiasm increased, but some areas were affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke was relatively stable. | Oscillation [1] | | Manganese - Silicon | The manganese - silicon futures price oscillated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5838 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 6712 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remained high, and the weekly output exceeded 200,000 tons. Steel mills' demand was weak, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased slightly. | Oscillation [1] | | Silicon - Iron | The silicon - iron futures price strengthened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 3215 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The weekly production of silicon - iron continued to increase, reaching 113,400 tons this week, a 0.5% increase from the previous week. Downstream price - pressing intention was strong, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 3100 tons to 62,080 tons. | Oscillation [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Basis | Latest Value | MoM | Spot | Latest Value | MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 10 - 1 month | - 79.0 | - 4.0 | 10 - contract | 179.0 | 21.0 | Shanghai | 3300.0 | 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 39.0 | - 1.0 | 01 - contract | 100.0 | 17.0 | Beijing | 3260.0 | 0.0 | | | | | | | | | Guangzhou | 3310.0 | 0.0 | | Hot Roll | 10 - 1 month | 15.0 | - 2.0 | 10 - contract | 45.0 | 17.0 | Shanghai | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | | | | | | | Tianjin | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 9.0 | - 12.0 | 01 - contract | 60.0 | 15.0 | Guangzhou | 3520.0 | - 10.0 | | Iron Ore | 9 - 1 month | 18.5 | 1.5 | 09 - contract | 24.9 | - 2.8 | PB powder | 769.0 | 2.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | 24.5 | 2.5 | 01 - contract | 43.4 | - 1.3 | Super Special powder | 652.0 | 4.0 | | Coke | 9 - 1 month | - 59.0 | - 14.0 | 09 - contract | 27.8 | 28.0 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade | 1470.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 88.0 | 1.5 | 01 - contract | - 31.2 | 14.0 | | | | | Coking Coal | 9 - 1 month | - 117.0 | 1.0 | 09 - contract | 128.0 | 134.5 | Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal | 1350.0 | 120.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 46.0 | - 7.5 | 01 - contract | 11.0 | 135.5 | | | | | Manganese - Silicon | 9 - 1 month | - 92.0 | - 12.0 | 09 - contract | 4.0 | 10.0 | Ningxia, Inner Mongolia | 5570.0, 5750.0 | - 30.0, 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 50.0 | 0.0 | 01 - contract | - 88.0 | - 2.0 | Guangxi | 5780.0 | - 20.0 | | Silicon - Iron | 9 - 1 month | - 160.0 | - 6.0 | 09 - contract | - 54.0 | - 58.0 | Ningxia | 5330.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 120.0 | 8.0 | 01 - contract | - 214.0 | - 64.0 | Inner Mongolia, Qinghai | 5300.0 | - 50.0 | | | Profit | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | | | Rebar futures profit | - 28.6 | - 9.8 | Coil - rebar spread | 254.0 | - 16.0 | Coking coal ratio | 1.5 | 0.01 | | | Long - process profit | 67.8 | 6.4 | Rebar - iron ore ratio | 4.0 | - 0.03 | Coke - iron ore ratio | 2.2 | - 0.03 | | | Short - process profit | 36.2 | 10.4 | Rebar - coke ratio | 1.9 | 0.01 | Double - silicon spread | - 292.0 | 18.0 | 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides historical price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents historical basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [19][20][22][24]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows historical inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [28][32][34][36][37][39]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - variety contract spread trend charts for the main contracts of coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal ratio, and double - silicon spread [42][44][46]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit trend charts for the main contract of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The rebar futures price decreased, with the 2510 contract closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also fell, and trading volume declined. Supply - demand data was weak, with a slight drop in rebar production, a significant increase in inventory, and a decline in apparent demand. Weak RMB loans in July affected market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The main contract i2601 price dropped to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous settlement price. Global iron ore shipments decreased, iron - making production declined, and port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%. The resumption of coal mine production was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - Coke: The coke market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market may experience a slight correction. The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market may experience a correction. The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Yesterday, the rebar futures price continued to fall. The 2510 contract closed at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a decrease of 16,000 lots in positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. National rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons week - on - week to 220.45 million tons, social inventory increased by 26.45 million tons to 414.93 million tons, and factory inventory increased by 4.06 million tons to 172.26 million tons. Apparent demand decreased by 20.85 million tons to 189.94 million tons. In July, RMB loans were weak, affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. Port spot prices also dropped. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments decreased. Iron - making production decreased by 0.34 million tons to 240.66 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16%. Port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%, with a decrease of 24,908 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal in the spot market was adjusted. Coal mine resumption was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with a decrease of 1034 lots in positions. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented. Coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,026 lots in positions. The market price in each region was 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with a decrease of 16,432 lots in positions. The market price in each region was about 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 4.0; the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 22.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the 09 - contract basis of iron ore was 27.1, up 0.2; the 01 - contract basis of coke was - 85.0, up 8.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of different varieties decreased. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3320.0, down 40.0; the PB powder price was 771.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of different varieties showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures profit was 13.8, up 15.0; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 243.0, up 14.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [5][7][9]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts showed the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [18][19][20]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [26][28][30]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [45][47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data, with relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trade, and passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [54].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today. The supply - demand gap may gradually ease, and the black market will have short - term shock adjustments. The short - term supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Steel exports may weaken marginally, and the loose pattern of ferrosilicon may expand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate around 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black commodity futures are generally bullish. The rebar closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the iron ore main contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1] Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week, but the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 3.03% to 68.4%. The hot metal output is still at a relatively high level, and steel mills have a weak willingness to actively reduce production. In the short term, it still supports the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. During the recent alloy centralized steel procurement period, the market expects the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to be further released, which has a certain positive impact on the market. However, northern steel mills are facing production restrictions due to the military parade, and the overall start - up situation of steel mills needs to be continuously tracked [1] Supply - Last week, the weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4700 tons from the previous week; the weekly output of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 195,825 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. Driven by the warming of the alloy market, the production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises have been repaired, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start production has continued to rise. The supply has a further growth trend, which may have a negative impact on the market in the short term. However, there are still calls for "anti - involution", and the market expects the alloy output to shrink in the future. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is facing a certain long - short game, and attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant policies [1] Cost - For ferrosilicon, with the news of price increases for raw materials such as semi - coke and electricity, the cost support for ferrosilicon has strengthened, which is positive for the futures price. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore market remained on the sidelines at the beginning of the week, with prices fluctuating at a high level and relatively stable; the spot price of coke remained stable, and the sixth round of price increase is still under negotiation. Overall, the cost side of silicomanganese is stable and slightly strong, which may support the market [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range. The production has increased significantly, inventory growth has expanded, and apparent demand has recovered, but high steel exports have eased domestic supply pressure [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short term. Supply has decreased, demand has slightly changed, and the market is concerned about military parade - related production restrictions [1]. - Both coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. For coking coal, supply - side inspections have affected market sentiment, and demand is strong. For coke, raw material prices are rising, and demand from steel mills and traders is good [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. For manganese silicon, market news has affected sentiment, and demand from steel procurement provides some support. For ferrosilicon, cost provides support, and the marginal change in supply and demand is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.09%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,400 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable to lower, and trading volume declined. This week, national rebar production increased by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons year - on - year, social inventory increased by 43,400 tons to 3.8848 million tons, factory inventory increased by 60,500 tons to 1.682 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with 200,000 lots traded and a decrease of 23,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices mostly declined. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments fell from a high, and global iron ore shipments decreased. The iron - making water output decreased by 3,900 tons to 2.4032 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 452,600 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1229.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.7%), with an increase of 45,809 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Shanxi's coal mine over - production inspections affected market sentiment, and coking enterprises' demand was strong [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1744 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton (0.66%), with an increase of 1,609 lots in positions. Spot prices at ports increased. Coking coal supply was favorable, and coke production and demand were both good [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 6064 yuan/ton, a 0.75% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,857 lots to 237,700 lots. Market prices in various regions were between 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton. Recent market news affected sentiment, and steel procurement provided some support [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 5834 yuan/ton, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 21,298 lots to 124,500 lots. Market prices in various regions were around 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Cost provided support, supply increased, and demand also showed some positive changes [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread was - 26.0, up 2.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, down 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 56.0, down 5.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3360.0, down 10.0; Beijing's was 3300.0, down 10.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties and regions [4]. - **Profit and Other Spreads**: Rebar's disk profit was 45.8, down 12.0; long - process profit was 145.6, down 4.6; short - process profit was 79.6, unchanged. Other spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. were also provided [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][20][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][43][45][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52]. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has many honors and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has many titles and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data and has relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]