Core Viewpoint - The discussion on export controls highlights the necessity for each country to achieve specialization and possess deep professional capabilities [1] Group 1 - Countries' future communication abilities will be crucial for collaboration, emphasizing the importance of specialized skills [1]

黄仁勋：当今每种技术的供应链都高度相互依存且非常复杂。不确定许可证是否会通过，但我确信许可证会很快通过，已经有很多订单。很高兴中美关于出口管制的讨论富有建设性和积极性。出口管制的讨论凸显每个国家都需要专业化和深厚的专业知识。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of eight Taiwanese entities, including Hanxiang Aerospace Industrial Co., Ltd., in the export control list is a necessary measure to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait [1] Group 1 - The eight Taiwanese entities are accused of deliberately cooperating with "Taiwan independence" separatist forces to pursue independence through military means [1] - The action is described as a just and necessary step to protect the normal order of cross-strait economic and trade exchanges and the welfare of people on both sides [1] - The spokesperson emphasized that the decision is reasonable, legal, and justified [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses how U.S. companies have been able to acquire restricted critical minerals from China through third-country transshipment methods, despite China's export controls [1][3] - It highlights the role of domestic Chinese companies in facilitating this process, which raises concerns about internal collusion and the effectiveness of China's export control measures [3][6] - The article also emphasizes the rising prices of critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and antimony due to increased competition and demand, leading some companies to take risks despite potential legal consequences [5][6] Group 1: U.S. Acquisition Methods - U.S. companies have imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April, surpassing the total from the previous three years [1] - Domestic Chinese companies have been involved in sourcing materials from producers and relabeling them before shipment to the U.S. [1][3] Group 2: China's Response and Internal Issues - China has tightened controls on rare earths and minerals in response to U.S. trade actions, but internal collusion has undermined these efforts [3][6] - The Chinese government has issued warnings against transferring materials to U.S. entities and has initiated actions against smuggling and evasion of export controls [8] Group 3: Legal and Market Implications - Domestic companies engaging in these activities risk severe legal penalties, including imprisonment for over five years [5] - The increase in mineral prices due to trade flow changes has incentivized risky behavior among companies, reflecting a "survival of the fittest" mentality [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Antimony prices have stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a potential bottoming out [2][13] - The export policy is showing signs of marginal easing, which may lead to an upward convergence of domestic antimony prices [3][42] - The supply-demand fundamentals for the antimony industry are strong, with expectations for long-term high prices due to geopolitical factors and administrative controls [3][42] Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - As of July 11, antimony concentrate prices were 151,500 CNY/ton, down 31% from the April peak, while antimony ingot prices were 178,500 CNY/ton, down 28% [1][10] - The price difference between domestic and international markets has widened to 330,000 CNY/ton due to export controls and supply-demand imbalances [1][10] Demand Analysis - The demand for flame retardants has shown resilience, with prices for flame retardant masterbatches increasing by 90% from January to April, followed by a modest decline of 11% from April to July [2][13] - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a significant increase in installation volumes, but actual installations have remained flat compared to the previous year due to delays [21][23] Supply Dynamics - Antimony ore imports decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a significant price increase of 39% month-on-month in May [31] - Domestic production of antimony ingots and sodium antimonate has declined sharply, with a 25% year-on-year drop in June production [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Companies with quality resources in the antimony sector are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trend. Recommended companies include Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][42]

Group 1 - China's announcement in December to strengthen export controls on critical minerals like antimony, gallium, and germanium is a strategic response to U.S. actions against China's chip industry, aimed at safeguarding national security and development interests [1][2][9] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for China to ease restrictions reflects the anxiety of American companies that are heavily reliant on Chinese minerals while simultaneously unwilling to lift sanctions [1][2][4] - The import of antimony oxides from Thailand and Mexico surged to 3,834 tons from December 2023 to April 2024, surpassing the total from the previous three years, indicating a significant shift in supply routes due to U.S. companies' attempts to circumvent Chinese regulations [4][5] Group 2 - The prices of gallium, germanium, and antimony have reached historical highs, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand from U.S. companies, despite the risks associated with transporting these minerals [5][7] - China's enforcement actions against smuggling and misreporting of mineral exports demonstrate a commitment to maintaining control over its resources, with increased scrutiny at ports and higher penalties for violations [7][9] - The ongoing trade dynamics suggest that while U.S. companies are attempting to adapt to the new restrictions, the fundamental reliance on Chinese minerals remains, highlighting the need for a more cooperative approach rather than continued sanctions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOS) has agreed to sell 20.3% of its joint venture in Chongqing, China for $150 million in cash, with the transaction expected to complete by the end of 2025. This move is aimed at reinvesting in talent, tools, and intellectual property to expand its product portfolio while maintaining its manufacturing capabilities and protecting proprietary technology [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - AOS, founded in 2000 and headquartered in Silicon Valley, is a semiconductor company involved in the design, wafer manufacturing, and packaging/testing of power semiconductor devices. It has R&D centers in the U.S., Taiwan, and Shanghai, with production bases in the U.S., Shanghai, and Chongqing [4][5]. - The Chongqing facility, established in April 2016, is the first 12-inch power semiconductor chip manufacturing and packaging/testing base in China and the second globally. The total investment for this project was $1 billion [4][5]. Group 2: Joint Venture and Production Capacity - The Chongqing joint venture, which AOS holds a 39.2% stake in, has a monthly production capacity of approximately 10,000 12-inch wafers and nearly 400 million power devices for packaging and testing. Future plans include increasing the capacity to 50,000 wafers and 1.25 billion devices per month within 3-5 years [6][7]. - The facility has developed advanced manufacturing and packaging/testing technologies for power semiconductor products, including MOSFETs and IGBTs, which are widely used in consumer, industrial, and automotive applications [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Issues - AOS has agreed to pay $4.25 million to settle allegations of violating export regulations by shipping goods to Huawei without authorization in 2019. This settlement concludes a five-year investigation by the U.S. government, which did not result in any criminal charges [8][9]. - The company has emphasized its commitment to compliance with regulatory requirements and has strengthened its processes to ensure ongoing adherence to export control regulations [9][10].

从中方近期一系列行动来看，这个问题已经被意识到了，解决方案已经出炉。今年5月，中国国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室部署开展了打击战略矿产走 私出口专项行动。商务部新闻发言人明确表示，今后相关部门会深挖幕后非法实体和走私网络，从严从快查办违法案件，持续提升出口管制执法效力，切实 维护国家安全和发展利益。有关部门已启动稀土出口许可证制度实施"一批一证" 制度，要求每批次稀土出口均需单独的许可证，且出口商必须填报最终用 户信息。 稀土矿石（资料图） 据环球时报报道，美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特日前表示，在上月美中两国达成协议后，美方期待中国能进一步放宽稀土磁铁出口限制。贝森特日前接受福 克斯新闻采访时，被问及中国是否已恢复对美关键物资供应，他表示，稀土现已恢复流通，但数量尚未达到4月4日之前的水平。 在此背景下，路透社报道披露，为绕过中方管制，有美国买家通过第三国转运拿到了矿物。比如根据海关和航运记录，自中国去年禁止向美国出口锑以来， 仍有大量锑从泰国和墨西哥涌入美国。中国在锑、镓和锗等关键矿物的供应方面处于主导地位，这些矿物被广泛用于电信、半导体和军事技术。数据显示， 从去年12月至今年4月，美国从泰国和墨西哥进口了 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is expediting the review of export license applications for rare earths, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [1] - China has approved a certain number of compliant applications and aims to strengthen communication with relevant countries regarding export controls [1] - China holds a dominant position in the supply of critical minerals such as antimony, gallium, and germanium, which are widely used in telecommunications, semiconductors, and military technology [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that a significant amount of antimony has been imported by the U.S. from Thailand and Mexico, raising suspicions about these countries acting as intermediaries [3] - A specific company in Thailand reportedly shipped 3,366 tons of antimony products to the U.S. within six months, marking a 27-fold increase year-on-year [3] - Investigations reveal that Chinese companies are disguising antimony ore as iron or zinc ore for customs clearance, subsequently routing it through Southeast Asia or Latin America to reach U.S. military production lines [3] Group 3 - In response to the exposure of smuggling channels, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has launched a special operation to combat illegal exports of strategic minerals [5] - The initiative aims to address issues such as false declarations, smuggling, and third-country transshipment, showcasing a commitment to closing regulatory loopholes [5] - The Ministry emphasizes understanding and accommodating reasonable civilian demands from other countries while ensuring compliance in export license approvals [5] Group 4 - The U.S. interest in Thailand and Mexico is attributed to their geographical proximity to China, which reduces logistics costs, and Mexico's access to the U.S. market through the USMCA [7] - Chinese enterprises are allowed to export antimony raw materials to Thailand and Mexico, where they can be processed and sold to the U.S. under a "non-Chinese origin" label, a practice not explicitly prohibited by law [7] - Following U.S. tariff threats, Thailand has made concessions and submitted a new trade proposal to the U.S. to avoid high tariffs on its exports [7] Group 5 - After Thailand's proposal submission, the U.S. announced a 36% tariff on Thai goods, which has been met with strong opposition from Thai officials [8] - Thai officials are preparing for further negotiations in light of the U.S. tariff decision, indicating ongoing tensions in trade relations [8] - The Thai government is actively seeking to adjust its trade strategies to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on its exports [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper and aluminum industries, with copper showing a stable upward trend and aluminum stabilizing at the bottom [14][15][16]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a slight price decline, with LME copper down 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, while domestic copper inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The aluminum market shows a minor price increase, with LME aluminum up 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, and a decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory [16]. - Gold prices have increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [17]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to tightening supply and rising demand, with strategic government actions enhancing the sector's outlook [39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with expectations of price recovery supported by reduced domestic production and increased demand from new regulations [40]. - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. - Lithium prices have shown a mixed trend, with carbonate prices increasing while hydroxide prices have slightly decreased [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a robust upward trend, while aluminum is stabilizing at lower levels. Precious metals are accelerating due to fiscal expansion policies [14]. 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, with slight increases in domestic inventory and production rates expected to rise [15]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, with a decrease in domestic inventory [16]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions [17]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with government actions enhancing market conditions [39]. 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are expected to rise due to tightening supply and strategic government actions [39]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery supported by reduced production and new regulations [40]. 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. 4.4 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.43% to 63,200 CNY per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased slightly [44].