电动智能大势所趋,市场变革挖掘 α 机遇 20250905 在过去的 3 到 5 年中，汽车板块在市场中的表现非常突出，涵盖了多个热门的 投资方向和赛道。当前的主要特征是电动化提升和智能化加速。在这一背景下， 中国市场的发展尤为迅速，呈现出冲破式加速的节奏。我们认为，从 2025 年 到 2030 年，汽车互联网生态或将出现。在中国市场中，头部车企已经逐渐清 晰，包括比亚迪、吉利、新势力以及近两年崛起的华为和小米等。 汽车行业可以类比哪个行业的发展历程？ 汽车行业的发展历程可以类比 2012 年的智能手机转型。当时功能机向智能机 转变，如今汽车行业也在经历从传统燃油车向电动化、智能化转变。这一过程 中的软硬件标准已经确立，我们期待未来几年格局进一步清晰。 零部件行业机遇集中在智能化、产业链外延及全球化，激光雷达、支架 芯片等领域具扩张潜力，人形机器人成重要下游场景，中国零部件企业 海外利润率已接近甚至超过国内水平。 Q&A 近年来汽车行业的发展趋势和投资机遇是什么？ 如何研究汽车行业及其周期性特点？ 摘要 汽车行业正经历从燃油车向电动化、智能化转型，类似于 2012 年智能 手机的转型，软硬件标准已确立，未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of new energy vessels along the Yangtze River is accelerating, with a significant increase in the number of vessels and a strong push from national policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - As of now, 132 new energy vessels have been put into operation in the Sichuan to Anhui section of the Yangtze River, with plans to build an additional 406 vessels by 2025 and a total of 966 new vessels in the next five years, of which LNG vessels will account for 75%, electric vessels for 20%, and methanol-powered vessels for 5% [1]. - The rapid growth of new energy vessels is driven by the national "dual carbon" goals and the "old-for-new" policy, reflecting the internal demand for green development in the shipping industry [1][2]. - The electric vessel industry chain includes upstream raw materials and components, midstream shipbuilding, and downstream application scenarios, with a focus on battery manufacturing, electric motors, and charging services [1][2]. Group 2: Market Potential - According to industry research, the market size for electric vessels in China is expected to reach 36.75 billion yuan by 2026, with projections of 55 billion yuan by 2025 and 110 billion yuan by 2030, assuming a 40% penetration rate of lithium batteries in electric vessels [2]. - The average lithium battery capacity for a new energy vehicle is between 40kWh and 50kWh, while a luxury electric cruise ship can have a battery capacity exceeding 3000kWh, indicating a significant market opportunity for battery manufacturers [2]. Group 3: Key Players - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) is recognized as a key player in the lithium battery supply chain for electric vessels, having entered the marine electrification sector as early as 2017 [3]. - Other battery companies such as Guoxuan High-Tech and EVE Energy have also made significant strides in the marine battery sector, with Guoxuan acquiring a majority stake in a ship technology company and EVE Energy supplying batteries for various types of vessels [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to explore "ship-electric separation" financial solutions for shipping companies, given the high initial investment but lower operational costs of electric vessels compared to traditional ships [4].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing growth driven by new policies and increasing demand for electric vehicles, with a focus on intelligent and globalized development of domestic brands [4][12][15]. Group 1: Weekly Data - In the week of August 25-31, 2025, passenger car sales reached 523,000 units, up 4.2% year-on-year and 9.5% month-on-month; new energy vehicle sales were 290,000 units, up 13.9% year-on-year and 8.1% month-on-month; new energy penetration rate was 55.3%, down 0.7 percentage points month-on-month [2][47]. - The automotive sector in A-shares rose by 1.0% from September 1 to September 5, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 0.6% [3][30]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Geely Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, BYD, Xiaomi Group, Berteli, Top Group, Xinquan Co., Hu Guang Co., and Chuncheng Power [4][7][15]. - In the parts sector, focus on intelligent driving companies such as Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Kobot; for new forces in the industry chain, recommend H-chain companies like Xingyu Co. and Hu Guang Co. [7][17]. Group 3: New Models and Orders - New model orders are performing well, with weekly sales for August showing a positive trend; Geely's merger with Zeekr received strong shareholder approval, marking a significant step in the "One Geely" strategy [6][13]. - The new Aion M7 model has started pre-orders, with over 150,000 orders in 24 hours, indicating strong market interest [6][13]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy is expected to stimulate demand; the new policy includes subsidies for scrapping older vehicles, which is anticipated to stabilize demand for 2025 [14][39]. - The expansion of the subsidy range to include vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards is expected to further boost the market [39][41]. Group 5: Motorcycle and Heavy Truck Market - The motorcycle market is expanding rapidly, with significant growth in large-displacement motorcycles; sales in July 2025 for motorcycles over 250cc reached 88,000 units, up 21.7% year-on-year [21][23]. - Heavy truck sales in July 2025 were 85,000 units, up 45.6% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of older vehicles [24][26].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The shift in consumer preference towards SUVs among the "post-85" and "post-90" generations necessitates that sedans adapt through electrification and smart technology to meet diverse usage scenarios [1] Group 2: Group Buying Market - The group buying market is projected to reach a scale of 15 billion yuan by 2025, but practitioners face challenges such as rapid updates, high workload, low salaries, and difficulty in contract termination [2] - The industry is expected to enter a 2.0 era through platform regulation and self-discipline [2] Group 3: Banking Sector - By September 2025, Agricultural Bank of China’s A+H share total market value is expected to surpass that of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for the first time, although ICBC still leads in core indicators [3] - The banking industry is becoming increasingly competitive, entering a new development phase [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - Domestic players are rapidly increasing the number of similar drugs to semaglutide, which previously required overseas purchasing [4] - Future competition among related pharmaceutical companies will focus on production capacity and commercialization capabilities [4]

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 管悦 鹿青松 于泊升 张雪 朱洪蕾 9月7日，2025齐鲁秋季车展迎来周末客流量新一轮高峰，位于山东国际会展中心2号馆的摩托车展示区域格外热闹，街车、仿赛、踏板等热门车型齐聚，吸 引大量市民驻足体验、交流询价。 这一火热场景背后，是中国摩托车行业的转型。在细分领域深耕与智能化布局的推动下，摩托车已从传统通勤工具逐渐延伸至休闲、社交领域，呈现出年轻 化、智电化与国际化趋势，更成为年轻人彰显个性的生活方式载体。 追求"一车多用" 齐鲁车展的摩托车展台每日人流络绎不绝，销售气氛热烈，往往车展刚启幕，该展区便迅速聚集起高涨人气。不少消费者直奔心仪摩托车展车，与销售人员 深入沟通车辆性能、配置细节及优惠政策。记者询问发现，人群中既有刚考取驾照、筹备首辆摩托车的"新手车主"，也有专程来看心仪车型的骑行爱好者， 一眼望过去，20-30岁区间的年轻面孔已成为消费主力。 "想找一辆既能城市通勤，又能周末跑山的车。"在川崎展区试坐的"95后"王先生道出了不少年轻消费者的需求。"摩托车通勤更灵活"，作为刚步入职场的年 轻人，他选择摩托车不仅是为应对早晚高峰的拥堵，更看重其能拓展生活半径的属性，"周末和朋友一 ...

Core Insights - Porsche has officially closed the order channel for the gasoline versions of the 718 Boxster and Cayman globally, marking the end of an era for these models [2][4] - The decision aligns with the EU's stringent regulations that necessitate the withdrawal of gasoline models from the market, with production lines continuing to fulfill existing orders until 2026 [4][6] - The transition from gasoline to electric is not just a regulatory response but also a strategic pivot for Porsche, as the electric successor has faced delays due to supply chain issues [6][12] Group 1: Transition to Electric - The gasoline 718's discontinuation is primarily driven by the UN's Regulation No. 155, which mandates a comprehensive cybersecurity management system for vehicles [8][10] - Porsche's decision to abandon the costly modifications required to meet new regulations reflects a rational business strategy, redirecting resources to the development of the next-generation electric model [10][12] - The electric 718 is expected to be unveiled in 2025, with testing vehicles already spotted, indicating that Porsche is accelerating its development efforts [12][18] Group 2: Market Challenges - The automotive landscape has dramatically changed, particularly in China, where Porsche's sales have seen significant declines, with a nearly 9% drop globally and a 23% and 28% decrease in Germany and China, respectively [29][31] - The electric 718 will face intense competition from emerging high-performance electric vehicles from Chinese brands, which offer superior performance and design at lower prices [31][32] - The success of the electric 718 is critical not only for its technical performance but also for its ability to carve out a market presence amidst fierce competition [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - CATL has recently sold its 20.6% stake in Valmet Automotive, marking the end of its 8-year overseas investment, which reflects a strategic shift in its European ambitions and the completion of Valmet's "nationalization" [3][9]. Group 1: Valmet Automotive's Transition - Valmet has accelerated its battery system (EVS) business, with its battery module production line in Salo starting operations in 2019, achieving a production capacity of 800,000 units in 2023 and surpassing 2 million units cumulatively [4][5]. - In 2023, Valmet's EVS business revenue exceeded €1 billion for the first time, despite a 21.8% year-on-year decline in its traditional automotive contract manufacturing (VCM) revenue due to the termination of the Mercedes GLC production line in June 2022 [5][6]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The demand for fuel vehicles in Europe is declining, and while electric vehicle contract manufacturing has higher profit margins, Valmet faces insufficient new orders due to slower electrification progress and an overall downturn in the European automotive market [6]. - In 2024, European BEV sales are projected to be 1.993 million units, a 1.3% year-on-year decrease, with Finland's BEV sales dropping by 30.3% [6]. - Finland's electric vehicle average price remains higher than traditional fuel vehicles, and the country offers less subsidy and tax incentives compared to neighboring countries like Sweden and Denmark, impacting growth [6]. Group 3: Finland's Strategic Positioning - Finland is among the first countries to release a national battery strategy, focusing on building a complete value chain from raw materials to battery manufacturing and recycling [7]. - The extreme environment in Finland has driven battery technology innovation, and the high penetration of renewable energy is promoting large-scale energy storage [8]. - Valmet plans to spin off its battery business into a separate subsidiary, IONCOR, which will further enhance its position as a leading independent battery system supplier in Europe [8]. Group 4: Government Involvement and Future Prospects - The nationalization of Valmet reflects the Finnish government's intention to gain greater influence in the electrification sector, with the government already holding a 70% stake in IONCOR and committing an additional €20 million investment [9]. - Collaborative projects, such as the Keliber lithium project, aim to establish local production of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, providing essential materials for electric vehicle battery production [10]. Group 5: Implications for Chinese Enterprises - The strategic adjustments in Finland suggest that Chinese companies need to adopt more flexible strategies to enter the European market, including joint ventures and technology licensing to meet EU localization requirements [11][12]. - Long-term strategies should involve integrating compliance requirements into the entire lifecycle of product design, production, and recycling, as well as establishing R&D centers and brand ecosystems [12].

Core Viewpoint - Porsche's 718 gasoline version will be discontinued in October 2025, transitioning to an electric model, which may impact its current market appeal and customer base [4][42]. Group 1: Discontinuation of 718 - Porsche's 718 gasoline version will cease production in October 2025, as confirmed by Albrecht Reimold [4]. - Existing orders for the 718 will still be fulfilled, but new orders will be difficult to place after the discontinuation [5]. - The future 718 model is expected to follow the electric vehicle trend, similar to the Taycan [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Appeal - The 718 is considered an entry-level sports car for Porsche, but its performance and specifications may not attract wealthy buyers or those seeking value [11][12]. - The 718 has been popular among social media influencers and micro-business owners, often seen as a status symbol rather than a performance vehicle [16][18]. - The car's design and performance characteristics, such as its mid-engine layout and flat-six engine, contribute to its appeal, despite its mixed reputation [21][25]. Group 3: Historical Context and Financial Implications - The 718 name has historical significance, originating from the 718 RSK race car, and has been crucial for Porsche's financial recovery in the past [22][35]. - The introduction of the 718 aimed to reduce production costs by sharing components with the 911, making it more affordable [33]. - The 718's production was also a response to financial difficulties faced by Porsche in the early 1990s, where losses reached 2.4 billion German Marks (approximately 10 billion RMB) [31]. Group 4: Regulatory and Technological Challenges - New EU regulations on cybersecurity (UN R155) pose challenges for older gasoline models like the 718, as their electronic architecture does not meet the new standards [37][39]. - The cost of updating the 718's systems to comply with these regulations is nearly equivalent to developing a new vehicle, leading to the decision to discontinue the model [40]. - The shift to electric vehicles is seen as a necessary evolution for Porsche to remain competitive in the automotive market [51].

Core Viewpoint - Deep Blue Automotive is undergoing significant leadership changes with Jiang Hairong appointed as CEO and Deng Chenghao elevated to Chairman, signaling a strategic focus on the integration of new energy and technology [2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Jiang Hairong, previously the Chief Marketing Officer for Honor in China, has joined Deep Blue Automotive as CEO, bringing extensive experience in global market branding and ICT product development [2][3]. - Deng Chenghao, the former CEO of Deep Blue Automotive, has been promoted to Chairman after serving in various leadership roles within Changan Automobile and Deep Blue Automotive [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - Deep Blue Automotive is committed to rapid and high-quality development in electrification and intelligence, reflecting its ambition in the new energy sector [2]. - The appointment of Jiang Hairong is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's capabilities in the integration of new energy and technology [2].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs and Globalization - The company has established a global production base in Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Romania to mitigate the direct impact of tariffs on exports, achieving growth in the tools segment despite adverse conditions [2][3] - Short-term cost increases may arise from fixed asset investments and cross-regional supply chain coordination, but mid to long-term strategies include passing reasonable cost pressures to downstream customers [3][4] - Companies with mature overseas production capabilities and resilient supply chains are expected to gain long-term trust from major clients and capture market share amid supply chain integration [3][4] Group 2: Electric Tools Market Trends - The electrification and cordless trends are driving the penetration rate of electric tools, with the company focusing on high-value industrial and professional-grade products [4][5] - The company aims to expand its customer base and product categories to generate new incremental contributions [4][5] Group 3: Smart Automotive Business Growth - The acceleration of smart automotive trends is expected to increase demand for intelligent modules, with the company implementing strategies to expand both customer and product offerings [5][6] - The company’s laser radar motors are positioned as key components for L2+ level smart driving systems, with a focus on high precision and reliability [6][7] Group 4: Commercial Cooking Machines - The company’s commercial cooking machines utilize advanced control algorithms for precise temperature control and intelligent frying, holding multiple industry patents [8][9] - The market potential for commercial cooking machines is expanding due to rising demands for efficiency and standardization in the restaurant industry, particularly with the entry of major players like Meituan and JD [8][9] Group 5: Robotics Sector Strategy - The company offers a range of products in the robotics sector, including components and complete machines, with a focus on industrial and commercial applications [10] - The commercial cooking robot has seen a doubling in shipment volume, driven by the demand for cost reduction and efficiency in the restaurant industry [10] - The company is positioned to capture market share in humanoid robotics by focusing on core components and validating products for specific applications [10]