2025年06月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：多空存分歧，上方或仍承压 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变动，盘面偏震荡 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注SNEC会议信息，盘面推荐空配 | 6 | 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 6 月 11 日 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,390 | -1,320 ...

Core Viewpoint - The certification and inspection industry in Jiangsu is playing a crucial role in enhancing the province's new production capacity, developing a new economic structure, and ensuring social welfare through various initiatives and standards [1][5][6]. Group 1: Certification and Standards - Jiangsu has completed 50 key industrial chain quality maps and established 8 provincial quality inspection centers in strategic emerging industries [1]. - The province has developed 11 product carbon footprint accounting standards and issued 73 certification certificates covering 26 product categories [1][2]. - The certification of product carbon footprints is essential for industries like photovoltaics and batteries to meet international market demands and overcome green trade barriers [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The product carbon labeling certification faces challenges such as insufficient awareness, lack of incentive mechanisms, and the need for improved certification agency capabilities [2]. - A public service platform for product carbon footprint accounting and certification has been established to enhance procurement of carbon-labeled products [2]. - The Jiangsu Product Carbon Labeling Certification Technical Service Alliance has been formed to provide collaborative certification services, with 39 domestic and international certification agencies participating [2]. Group 3: Industry Support and Development - Jiangsu's market regulatory authority has implemented a "chain-based" support strategy to enhance industrial development, focusing on 16 advanced manufacturing clusters and 50 key industrial chains [4][5]. - The province has issued 3653 certificates to support 2800 enterprises, with a satisfaction rate exceeding 98% for assistance programs [5]. - The certification and inspection services have been integrated into Jiangsu's "1650" industrial system, promoting high-quality development and innovative living standards [5][6]. Group 4: Innovation and Economic Growth - The inspection and testing sector is seen as a vital support for emerging fields like low-altitude economy and advanced communications, driving innovation and growth [6]. - Jiangsu has established various alliances to address industry-specific challenges, such as the low-altitude industry inspection alliance and the advanced communication inspection alliance [6]. - The province's inspection and testing industry has shown robust growth, with 4099 institutions generating 33.84 million inspection reports annually and a revenue growth rate of 10.92% in emerging sectors [6]. Group 5: Future Directions - The provincial market regulatory authority aims to enhance the quality of certification and inspection services, integrating them with technological and industrial innovation chains [7]. - There is a commitment to advancing the internationalization of certification and inspection services, particularly in product carbon labeling [7].

深交所。 IC供图 飞行管理制度改革创新 健全金融服务实体经济的激励约束机制。支持深圳开展科技产业金融一体化专项试点。健全科技型企业 信贷、知识产权证券化、科技成果和知识产权交易等实践场景和规则体系。优化科技型企业债权和股权 融资协同衔接机制。深化绿色金融改革。支持保险资金依法合规投资在深圳发起设立的主要投向特定领 域的私募股权投资基金和创业投资基金。允许在香港联合交易所上市的粤港澳大湾区企业，按照政策规 定在深圳证券交易所上市。 创新支持新兴产业发展的体制机制。依托深圳证券交易所科技成果与知识产权交易中心等，构建科技成 果转移转化全链条服务体系。探索人工智能辅助医疗设备准入应用机制，在安全可控前提下，探索人工 智能辅助医疗设备数据采集、集成共享、合规使用的规则及标准。支持深圳深化无人驾驶航空器飞行管 理制度改革创新，完善低空飞行监管规则，探索开展跨境直升机飞行、公益服务等通用航空业务。拓展 储能场景，探索源网荷储一体化商业模式。创新国际性产业与标准组织管理制度。 为深入推进深圳综合改革试点、深化改革创新扩大开放，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革 试点 深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》。 意见要求坚持顶层 ...

为加大金融支持产业园区绿色转型力度，亚洲开发银行与华夏银行合作设立促进产业园区绿色低碳发展 项目，将支持12家国家级和省级开发区绿色转型。该项目是经国务院批准的主权贷款项目，首期设定贷 款50亿元人民币，期限16年，专项服务产业园区节能、可再生能源、绿色建筑、绿色交通、低碳制造、 循环经济等领域。我国明确提出要"建立一批零碳园区"，绿色金融将迎来更大的发展空间。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - Shenzhen has been actively exploring green finance, achieving a green credit balance of 1.023 trillion yuan, a 21.07% increase from the beginning of the year [1] - The implementation of the first national green finance regulation, the "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Green Finance Regulations," has positioned Shenzhen as a hub for green finance innovation [1] - New green credit products, such as the "carbon reduction loan," have emerged to support high-quality development in green industries, with a specific loan of 3 million yuan issued to a technology company [1] Group 2 - Green insurance plays a crucial role in supporting the green transition by providing loss compensation, risk reduction, and funding guidance, with environmental pollution liability insurance generating a premium of 34.24 million yuan in 2024 [2] - The clean energy sector is a key focus for green insurance, exemplified by the issuance of a long-term quality and performance guarantee insurance for energy storage systems, amounting to over 100 million yuan [2] - Shenzhen aims to establish a multi-tiered, comprehensive, diverse, and sustainable green financial service system within the next five years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rongcheng Rural Commercial Bank is actively supporting the development of the cultural tourism industry in Rongcheng, focusing on creating an international coastal leisure and vacation tourism destination through innovative financial products and services [1][2][3]. Group 1: Support for Key Scenic Areas - The bank has established a comprehensive approach to support key scenic areas by simplifying loan processes and increasing financing for major projects, which has led to significant tourist engagement, as evidenced by over 100,000 visitors during the recent holiday, a 38% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - In the first five months of the year, the bank issued 88 million yuan in new loans to support tourism projects, enhancing the overall quality of the local tourism industry [3]. Group 2: Support for Emerging Economic Sectors - The bank is integrating into the "Tianzhijintou, Swan Coast" brand strategy, providing tailored financial services to support the development of cultural tourism clusters, including loans for rural tourism initiatives [4]. - Specific financial products like "Homestay Loans" and "Rural Tourism Loans" have been introduced to assist villagers in transforming their resources into tourism opportunities, significantly improving local economic conditions [4]. Group 3: Comprehensive Industry Support - Rongcheng Rural Commercial Bank is providing extensive support across the entire tourism industry chain, including hospitality, dining, and cultural sectors, to enhance the overall tourism experience [5][6]. - The bank has issued "Entrepreneurial Guarantee Loans" to over 150 high-credit restaurants, promoting local specialties and supporting the development of the "Rongcheng Good Products" brand [6]. Group 4: Future Development and Ecological Integration - The bank is aligning its green finance initiatives with the city's ecological tourism planning, including innovative loan products that leverage carbon reduction benefits from marine aquaculture [7]. - A total of 510 million yuan in green loans has been issued to support the integration of tourism and modern fisheries, contributing to both environmental protection and economic development [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issuance of the "Opinions on Deepening Reform and Expanding Opening Up in Shenzhen" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, aiming to enhance Shenzhen's role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and contribute to the modernization of the country through comprehensive reforms and innovations [1]. Group 1: Reform and Opening Up - The "Opinions" emphasize the need for deeper reforms and broader opening up at higher levels and goals, aiming to create replicable and promotable experiences [1]. - The document outlines five main areas for reform: education, technology, talent system integration; financial, technological, and data empowerment for high-quality economic development; establishment of a new open economic system; improvement of governance models; and strengthening implementation [1][2]. Group 2: Financial and Technological Empowerment - The "Opinions" call for the establishment of a financial service incentive and constraint mechanism to support the integration of technology and finance in Shenzhen [2]. - It includes measures to enhance credit for technology enterprises, promote intellectual property securitization, and optimize financing mechanisms for tech companies [2]. - The document also highlights the need for deepening green finance reforms and allowing specific investment funds to be established in Shenzhen [2]. Group 3: Data Market Reforms - The "Opinions" propose reforms for the market-oriented allocation of data elements, including the establishment of trading rules and standards [2]. - Shenzhen is encouraged to explore mechanisms for data trading, trusted circulation, and revenue distribution, aiming for more institutional achievements in compliance assessment and certification [2]. Group 4: Trade and Service Innovations - The document suggests optimizing and upgrading goods trade, promoting trade facilitation, and supporting the development of new trade models [3]. - It supports high-value, high-tech, and environmentally friendly bonded maintenance business trials outside comprehensive bonded zones [3]. - The "Opinions" also advocate for the expansion of international express business licensing and the innovation of digital renminbi application scenarios [3].

"当前，上海正在加快建设国际金融中心，不断强化金融市场功能，支持上期所建设成世界一流交易 所，以更齐全的金融产品体系赋能新质生产力发展，加快建设人民币金融资产配置和风险管理中心，更 好服务国家战略、维护国家安全。"葛平说。 葛红林表示，再生有色金属是保障我国乃至全球有色金属资源安全、推动绿色低碳转型的关键力量。 2024年，我国再生铜铝铅锌产量达1915万吨，占十种有色金属产量的24%，减少二氧化碳排放1.7亿 吨。其中，再生铝产量已突破1000万吨，碳减排贡献率超过85%，是绿色低碳循环发展的关键领域。 "铸造铝合金期货及期权上市，对提升我国铝产业国际影响力、助力产业构建完善的风险管理体系、满 足企业多元化风险管理需求、推进再生铝高质量发展有重大意义。"葛红林表示，有色金属工业协会将 鼓励和引导企业积极参与期货交易、用好期货工具、做好风险管控。 田向阳表示，我国期货市场首个再生商品品种——铸造铝合金期货及期权的推出，是我国期货市场以绿 色金融服务新质生产力发展的又一里程碑。上期所铝期货已上市运行30余年，2020年以来又先后上市铝 期权、氧化铝期货和期权。实践中，铝系列期货和期权以紧密的产融协同为我国铝工业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in "cancellation-style" share buybacks among brokerages, with six firms having repurchased a total of 129 million shares for a total amount of 1.31 billion yuan as of June 5. This reflects management's confidence in their company's value and aims to optimize capital structure and improve profitability metrics [4][10]. - The industry is noted to have a favorable valuation, with an average price-to-book ratio of 1.33x, which is at the 38.20% percentile since 2018, suggesting a good investment opportunity [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the increasing trend of share buybacks among brokerages, with a total of 1.29 million shares repurchased and 1.31 billion yuan spent. This is seen as a strategy to enhance capital efficiency and shareholder returns [10]. - The ongoing capital market reforms are expected to clarify the development paths for the industry, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, technology finance, and green finance as key areas for business breakthroughs [10]. 2. Market Review - Major indices experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13%, the CSI 300 by 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.32%. The non-bank financial index rose by 1.99%, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [11]. - The report notes a significant increase in trading volume, with a total of 4.84 trillion yuan traded in A-shares last week, reflecting a 10.51% week-on-week growth [11][19]. 3. Key Industry Data Tracking - As of June 6, the market had 3,117.89 billion shares pledged, accounting for 3.85% of total equity. The margin balance stood at 1.81 trillion yuan, showing a 0.42% increase [19][25]. - In May 2025, new fund issuance totaled 657.59 billion shares, with a notable decline in stock fund issuance by 42.06% [19][21]. - The report also highlights the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.65%, up 4.70 basis points since the beginning of the year [19][23]. 4. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the increasing trend of share buybacks among brokerages, with specific details on the number of shares and amounts repurchased by various firms [27]. - It also mentions new measures from regulatory bodies aimed at supporting financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on enhancing financing supply and reducing costs [27]. 5. Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Tianfeng Securities plans to raise up to 4 billion yuan through a private placement, with specific allocations for wealth management and debt repayment [27]. - Guolian Minsheng has appointed new executives, indicating ongoing corporate governance changes [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in "cancellation-style" share buybacks among brokerages, with six firms having repurchased a total of 129 million shares for 1.31 billion yuan as of June 5, 2025. This reflects management's confidence in their company's value and aims to optimize capital structure and improve profitability metrics [4][10]. - The industry is noted to have a favorable valuation, with an average price-to-book ratio of 1.33x, placing it in the 38.20 percentile since 2018, suggesting a good investment opportunity [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing capital market reforms and the expected implementation of detailed guidelines from the "Five Major Articles" of finance, which will clarify the development paths for the industry [4][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the investment value of the sector, particularly as brokerages continue to enhance capital quality through mergers and acquisitions, and explore breakthroughs in technology and green finance [4][10]. Market Review - Major indices showed varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13%, the CSI 300 by 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.32%. The total A-share trading volume reached 4.84 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 1.21 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.51% [5][11][19]. Key Industry Data Tracking 1. Market Performance and Scale: The report notes a significant increase in trading volumes and market indices, indicating a positive market sentiment [11][19]. 2. Credit Business: As of June 6, 2025, the market had 3,117.89 billion shares pledged, accounting for 3.85% of total equity, with a margin balance of 1.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [19]. 3. Fund Issuance: In May 2025, new fund issuance totaled 657.59 billion shares, with a notable decline in stock fund issuance [19]. 4. Investment Banking: The report details an equity underwriting scale of 167.95 billion yuan in May 2025, with IPOs contributing 34.56 billion yuan [19]. 5. Bond Market: The report mentions a slight decline in the total price index of bonds since the beginning of the year, with a 10-year government bond yield of 1.65% [19]. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the increasing trend of share buybacks among brokerages and outlines new measures from regulatory bodies aimed at supporting financing for small and micro enterprises [27]. Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Tianfeng Securities plans to raise up to 4 billion yuan through a private placement, with specific allocations for wealth management and debt repayment [27].