英国央行：将在货币政策委员会对量化紧缩计划进行年度审查后，公布第四季度及以后任何国债出售的 相关安排。 ...

智通财经6月20日电，英国央行称，将在第三季度出售价值7.5亿英镑的短期和中期到期国债，以及6亿 英镑的长期到期国债；将在货币政策委员会对量化紧缩计划进行年度审查后，公布第四季度及以后任何 国债出售的相关安排。 英国央行：将在第三季度出售价值7.5亿英镑的短期和中期到期国债 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行正在谨慎微调其从债券市场撤出的策略，但事实仍是量化紧缩措施已经在 实施，且可能会导致部分股票出现不稳定的情况。量化紧缩政策的潜在影响可能会给日经 225 指数的进 一步上涨蒙上阴影，因为该指数本周已创下四个月来的高点。该蓝筹股指数主要由成长型股票构成，比 如优衣库母公司Fast Retailing，以及芯片相关企业Advantest 和东京电子。 三井住友日兴证券公司高级分析师Masao Muraki表示："日本央行的举措所产生的实际影响将在更长时 期内显现出来。目前我们预计量化宽松政策将进入一个减少银行系统过剩流动性阶段，这将引发对存款 的更激烈竞争，并导致市场不稳定。" 除了那些众所周知容易受到较高债券收益率影响的成长型股票外，大盘股也容易受到影响。SBI 证券公 司的首席量化分析师Akemi Hatano表示，这些股票与债券收益率之间的负相关性正在不断增强。 当然，对于资产负债表缩减会严重扰乱日本市场的担忧或许有些过度了。例如，有人可能会举例，尽管 美联储自 2022 年起开始减持资产，但美国股市总体上仍表现坚挺。 这凸显出投资者仍需保持警惕，即便日本央行本周宣布将放缓其债券 ...

宏观动态报告 -- 6 月 FOMC 会议 2024 年 6 月 19 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 于金潼 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测进一步确立"滞胀"担忧,点阵图边际鹰流但无需过多解读,硬数据变动仍将主 ● 导美联储未来的态度,而关税和财政是影响硬数据的核心变量: 6 月将 2025 和 2026 年的 经济增长预期从 1.7%和 1.8%下调至 1.4%和 1.6%,低于经济潜在增速。2025-2027 年 的失业率被小幅全线上调,分别为 4.5%、4.5%和 4.4%,略高于自然失业率水平并支持 进一步的降息。PCE 通胀也被上调,2025年名义和核心通胀分别从 2.7%和 2.8%进一步 上调至 3.0%和 3.1%,而 2026 年均为 2.4%,即通胀抬升基本为一次性。最后,联邦基 金利率预测路径显示 2025 年美联储暂时维持降息 2 次，2026 年降息从 2 次下调 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the articles revolves around the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its potential impact on interest rates and market volatility [1][6][9] - The Federal Reserve's primary objectives are price stability and full employment, with a focus on monitoring inflation data and economic indicators [3][5] - The current interest rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.50%, with cautious speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year, influenced by economic data and inflation trends [7][9] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy framework for 2025 is characterized by high rates, gradual balance sheet reduction, and cautious rate cuts, aiming to balance inflation resilience and economic downturn risks [6][8] - The ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) is set to withdraw $95 billion monthly from the market, with predictions of its conclusion by mid-year, although some forecasts suggest it may extend into the third quarter [8] - Key points to watch during the Federal Reserve's announcement include the dot plot indicating potential rate cuts, geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, and recent economic data showing a decline in retail sales and industrial production [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded 3%, surpassing the government's and Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to market speculation about the timing of interest rate hikes [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of Japan is committed to a monetary normalization path, gradually reducing its bond purchases starting from April 2026 while decreasing its holdings of Japanese government bonds [1][3]. - The current inflation rate in Japan is over 3%, prompting market attention on the timing of potential interest rate increases, with the Bank of Japan monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs and domestic political developments [1][4]. Group 2: Government Bond Holdings - The Bank of Japan holds approximately 560 trillion yen in government bonds, with internal consensus indicating that this amount is considered "excessive" [3]. - The Bank of Japan plans to exclude government bond purchases from its monetary policy tools, actively pursuing a quantitative tightening route to reduce its bond holdings [3][4]. Group 3: Future Rate Hikes and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's President, Ueda, indicated that the timing for future interest rate hikes will be based on a comprehensive assessment of various data and information, without providing a clear stance [4][5]. - Market expectations for interest rate hikes are increasing, with probabilities of 9% for July, 20% for September, and 24% for October [4]. Group 4: Political and Economic Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections in late July and geopolitical developments may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rate hikes [5].

日本央行于6月17日结束为期两天的政策会议，预计在北京时间10:30至12:00公布最新决定。市场普遍 预测，短期利率将维持在0.5%的水平不变，显示出央行在当前复杂经济环境下的谨慎态度。此次会议 的核心议题之一是对现行购债缩减计划的检讨。消息人士透露，日本央行政策委员会倾向于保持本财年 （截至2026年3月）的购债缩减计划不变，但已开始为2026财年的政策调整铺路，计划从下一财年起放 缓量化紧缩的步伐。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 纸黄金今日需密切关注的关键阻力位区间为805-810，同时要留意的重要支撑位区间为750-755。 今日周二（6月17日）亚市盘中，纸黄金延续前一交易日下跌走势，截止发稿报782.97元/克，跌幅 0.32%，今日开盘报785.50元/克，最高触及785.67元/克，最低触及780.71元/克。 【要闻速递】 在全球经济不确定性不断加剧的背景下，日本央行正站在货币政策的十字路口。周二（6月17日），日 本央行结束为期两天的政策会议，备受市场瞩目的量化紧缩（QT）计划细节即将揭晓。据悉，日本央 行预计不会大幅调整今年的购债缩减计划，但从2026财年起或将放缓缩减购债的步伐，以避免市场剧 ...

金十数据6月17日讯，法兴银行预计日本央行6月可能会保持利率不变，且在近期超长期日本国债遭遇抛 售之际，日本央行将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩的步伐。日本的核心CPl可能在非新鲜食品和服务价格 上涨的推动下加速增长。 法兴银行：日本央行将按兵不动 并将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩步伐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering a slower pace of bond purchase reduction while maintaining the policy interest rate at 0.5%, which will be closely monitored by the bond market [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Meeting Insights - The BOJ's two-day monetary policy meeting is expected to conclude with the interest rate remaining unchanged, with a focus on the updated government bond purchase reduction plan [1]. - Approximately two-thirds of analysts anticipate that the bond purchase reduction starting in April next year will be less aggressive than the current pace [1][4]. - The BOJ has been reducing bond purchases since last summer, with a record reduction of 6.2 trillion yen in the first quarter due to slowed purchases and maturing debt [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The decision to extend the quantitative tightening (QT) plan into the next fiscal year is expected to impact global bond markets, especially after recent yield fluctuations [4]. - Analysts predict that the BOJ may reduce bond purchases by 2 trillion yen per quarter starting next spring, down from the current 4 trillion yen [7][8]. - The current yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds reached a historical high of 3.185%, indicating market instability [11]. Group 3: Economic Context and External Factors - Japan's Prime Minister is expected to discuss trade agreements with the U.S. President to mitigate economic uncertainties ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [12]. - The U.S. Treasury has urged the BOJ to tighten its policies to address yen weakness and balance bilateral trade [12]. - The BOJ's cautious stance on interest rate hikes reflects the high uncertainty in global trade negotiations and their economic implications [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering slowing down the pace of bond purchase reductions while keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, which is causing significant tension in the global bond market [1] - All 53 analysts surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, with a focus on the updated government bond purchase plan, where about two-thirds predict a smaller reduction starting in April [1] - The Bank of Japan's first extension of its quantitative tightening plan into the new fiscal year is aimed at addressing recent yield fluctuations, especially after the long-term Japanese government bond yield reached a historic high last month [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the new reduction pace may be set at 200 billion yen per quarter, with 40% of analysts expecting this figure, while 25% forecast a reduction of 300 billion yen, and 20% believe it will remain at 400 billion yen [2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated that the threshold for intervening in the bond market is high, as the central bank is working to restore market functionality damaged by past quantitative easing and yield curve control policies [2] - Following the policy statement from the Bank of Japan, market attention will shift to the Governor's press conference, where investors will look for hints regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [2] Group 3 - In response to potential Senate elections next month, the Japanese Prime Minister is attempting to gain public support by addressing rising living costs, as consumer inflation in Japan remains the highest among G7 countries [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has notably mentioned the Bank of Japan's policies in its semiannual currency report, urging the central bank to tighten policies to correct yen weakness and balance bilateral trade [3] - A former Bank of Japan official emphasized the need for the central bank to maintain a stance against rising core inflation, which is crucial for alleviating public dissatisfaction with living costs and serves as a key bargaining chip in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [3]