Core Viewpoint - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield has decreased by 1 basis point to 2.635% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 20-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield decreased by 4.05 basis points, closing at 4.1061% on September 23, with intraday trading between 4.1466% and 4.1023% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - The movement in yields may influence the broader financial markets, including equities, as evidenced by the post-market drop in U.S. stocks [1]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]

Core Insights - Japan's 2-year government bond yield has risen to 0.931%, the highest level since June 2008 [1] - The 5-year government bond yield in Japan has increased by over 2% [1] - The 20-year government bond yield in Japan has risen by nearly 1% [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Legal Dispute - President Trump is escalating the legal battle to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook to the Supreme Court, seeking to overturn a lower court's ruling that blocked his dismissal decision [2] - Cook's legal team argues that her immediate removal would disrupt financial markets and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - This case marks the first instance in the 111-year history of the Federal Reserve involving a "for cause" dismissal of a governor [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The legal actions come just after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with Cook voting in favor of the cut [2] - If Trump successfully dismisses Cook and appoints a successor, he would control four out of seven seats on the Federal Reserve Board, significantly influencing monetary policy [2] - Markets are closely monitoring the Supreme Court's actions, as Cook's sudden dismissal could lead to increased volatility in the dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and stock markets [2] Group 3: Corporate Announcements and Financial Updates - Hong Kong-based Hongyang Real Estate announced an extension of the restructuring support agreement fee deadline to October 3, 2025, due to creditors needing more time [3] - Huaxia Holdings reported a total of 28.02 billion yuan in overdue debts as of July 31, 2025, with a significant portion attributed to its subsidiary Huaxia Happiness [3] - Prologis is reportedly seeking to list its China operations next year, indicating potential growth and investment opportunities in the logistics sector [3] Group 4: Market Movements and Bond Issuance - The Shenzhen government plans to issue a series of RMB senior bonds, reflecting ongoing efforts to raise capital in the market [4] - As of September 18, the yield on China's two-year government bonds was 1.48%, while the ten-year yield was 1.85%, indicating the current state of the bond market [6] - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.57%, and the ten-year yield also increased by 5 basis points to 4.11%, showing trends in U.S. interest rates [6] Group 5: Ratings Updates - Zhongcheng Automobile Insurance Co., Ltd. had its financial strength rating upgraded from "BBB" to "BBB+" by Fitch Ratings, reflecting improved financial stability [5] - China Merchants Securities maintained its long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings, indicating stable performance in the financial sector [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent movements in German government bond yields, indicating a notable increase following a period of decline [1] - The 10-year German bond yield rose by 2.2 basis points to 2.748%, with a cumulative increase of 3.2 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year German bond yield increased by 1.2 basis points to 2.023%, showing a weekly rise of 0.5 basis points and trading within a range of 1.988%-2.027% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield saw a rise of 2.7 basis points, reaching 3.337% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 1.030 basis points to +72.090 basis points, with a cumulative rise of 2.576 basis points for the week [1] - The rebound in yields followed the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts on September 17 [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Derivatives Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 Report Key Points Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and market expectations of more rate cuts have boosted Treasury bond futures prices, reflecting an increased expectation of loose policies. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates by nearly 50 basis points in the October and December meetings, which supports Treasury bond futures [3]. Section Summaries Factors Affecting Treasury Bonds - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and market expectations of more rate cuts drive up Treasury bond futures prices. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 1.56 basis points last week, indicating a rising price trend [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The two - year US Treasury bond yield rose 4.44 basis points, reflecting short - term interest - rate pressure or yield - curve changes. The market's reaction is weaker than last year despite positive fundamentals, suggesting adverse external factors or sentiment [3]. Data Presentations - **Yield and Interest Rates**: Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields, deposit - type institutional pledged - repo weighted rates, and reverse - repo rates are presented [4]. - **Term Spreads**: Information on the term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bonds is provided [4]. - **Positions and Trading Volumes**: Data on Treasury bond futures positions and trading volumes for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts are shown [6][7]. - **Basis and Spread**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts, as well as the inter - quarter spreads of these contracts and cross - variety spreads, are presented [8][9][13][16][17][19]

Core Points - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 3.160% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - The current yield level may reflect broader economic conditions and monetary policy expectations in Japan [1] - This movement in bond yields could influence investment strategies and capital flows within the financial markets [1]

Group 1 - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 0.5 basis points to 2.62% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q3 this year, the bond market has adjusted significantly, but the decline in the duration of public - offering bond funds is not obvious. It is expected that public - offering bond funds will maintain a moderately high duration level, with the 10 - year Treasury yield oscillating in the range of 1.7% - 1.8%. As the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and fundamental pressure rises, the bond market environment in the fourth quarter is expected to be better than that in the third quarter [2][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Third - quarter Bond Market Adjustment with No Obvious Decline in Bond Fund Duration - In the third - quarter bond market adjustment, the decline in the duration of bond funds was not obvious. For example, in Q1, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from about 1.6% in early February to nearly 1.9% in mid - March, and the median duration of the whole - market bond funds dropped from a high of 3 years to about 2.1 years. However, as of September 17, the median duration of public - offering bond funds remained at about 2.5 years, and the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds remained at about 3.1 years [5][14] 3.2 Four Reasons Why Bond Fund Duration is Difficult to Decrease - **Mild Adjustment and Multiple Repairs**: Compared with the Q1 adjustment, the Q3 bond market adjustment was relatively mild, with multiple repairs during the period and did not reach the short - term stop - loss lines of some funds. The adjustment range of the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield since Q3 was less than 20bps, and the adjustment lasted nearly a quarter. In contrast, in Q1, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose about 30bps in more than a month [8][17] - **Performance Assessment and Market Expectations**: The bond market has been volatile this year, especially the performance of bond funds focusing on the duration strategy was significantly weaker than last year. As the fourth quarter is a traditional window for bond market pre -emption and repair, from the perspective of achieving the annual performance assessment, bond funds may not significantly reduce their duration. As of September 14, the median yield of the whole - market bond funds this year was 1.21%, significantly lower than last year's 3.78% [8][26] - **Limited Strategy Options in a Low - interest - rate Environment**: The current bond market is in a low - interest - rate environment, with limited market strategy capacity and options. Public - offering funds have to extend the duration to obtain coupons. Institutions such as wealth management and bank self - operation also have a demand for long - duration bond allocations. As of August this year, the net financing proportion of long - term credit bonds rose to about 33%, a record high [8][33] - **Lack of Massive Redemption Pressure**: Institutions usually conduct continuous and large - scale redemptions of long - term bonds only when the bond market shows obvious "negative feedback" characteristics. A normal market adjustment of general amplitude may not trigger large - scale redemptions and re - allocation of redeemed assets. The current bond market is slowly oscillating and correcting, without triggering widespread market panic [8][34]