Core Viewpoint - The consumption upgrade initiative, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has significantly boosted the consumer market, with sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan by May 31, 2023, and is expected to further stimulate economic growth through policy support and market collaboration [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Impact - The "old-for-new" program is projected to drive sales of related products exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with 1.1 trillion yuan already achieved in the first five months of 2023 [3]. - The program has led to substantial consumer engagement, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and 49.86 million consumers purchasing 12 categories of home appliances [3][4]. - The fiscal support for the program has doubled to 300 billion yuan in 2023, enhancing its effectiveness [3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Context - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy includes a broader range of products, increasing from 8+N to 12+N categories in home appliances, and introducing subsidies for digital products [4]. - The shift in policy focus from investment to consumption is evident, as the government prioritizes domestic demand to counter external risks and drive economic growth [6][7]. - The expected export growth rate for 2024 is only 3.8%, indicating a need for stronger domestic consumption to support economic stability [6]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - E-commerce platforms are playing a crucial role in the implementation of the "old-for-new" program, offering additional subsidies and promotional activities to enhance consumer participation [10]. - Financial institutions, particularly banks, are actively supporting the initiative by providing tailored financial products and incentives to encourage consumer spending [10][11]. - The interaction between financial support and consumer spending is expected to strengthen, contributing to economic resilience and structural optimization [11].

正值"618"大促，线上线下促销活动持续多日，大家对于以旧换新的热情不减。然而，5月底以来，社交 媒体也出现关于重庆、江苏、湖北等地暂时无法申领"国补"的讨论。 针对相关热点话题，国家有关部委回应称，今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持 地方做好一、二季度消费品以旧换新工作。后续还有1380亿元中央资金将在三、四季度分批有序下达， 同时地方也将相应配套和自行安排足够的地方资金，"国补"还将继续惠及广大消费者。 此外，业内人士表示，少部分地区阶段性地完善了"国补"政策实施节奏，实际上消费品以旧换新工作将 持续全年，消费者每月每周都有参与申领"国补"的机会。最近一些企业、平台和自媒体借机炒作，搞饥 饿营销，营造恐慌情绪，消费者要特别注意辨别。实际上，除上述少数地区外，大多数省份国补优惠活 动也在正常推进。 这3000亿元超长期特别国债，再加上地方按比例配套和自行安排的资金，共同构成了"国补"的资金来 源。 但是这3000亿元是"切块"分配到地方的。在分配时，会综合各地区常住人口数量、地区生产总值、汽车 和家电保有量、2024年消费品以旧换新政策及资金执行情况等因素，资金分配向2024年消费品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive impact of government subsidies on the elderly population in Beijing's Chaoyang District, facilitating home modifications for aging individuals and enhancing their quality of life through financial support and improved living conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Support and Subsidies - The Chinese government has allocated approximately 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "Two New" initiatives, which include subsidies for home modifications for the elderly [1]. - Chaoyang District provides subsidies ranging from 60% to 80% for home modifications, with a maximum limit of 5,000 yuan per household [2]. - As of now, Chaoyang District has issued subsidies to 10,034 households, amounting to around 36 million yuan, which has stimulated approximately 60.89 million yuan in elderly household consumption, demonstrating a leverage effect of nearly 1.7 times the subsidy amount [2]. Group 2: Implementation and Community Engagement - A three-tiered mechanism involving district, street, and community levels has been established to ensure effective policy implementation, with community workers responsible for promotion and review [3]. - The policy has expanded its coverage from economically disadvantaged elderly families to all registered elderly households in the district, allowing for a wider selection of products and services [3]. - The introduction of personalized services, such as tailored modifications for individual needs, has been emphasized, with local authorities adapting to specific requirements of elderly residents [4]. Group 3: Market Demand and Consumer Behavior - The subsidies have effectively reduced financial barriers for elderly individuals, increasing their willingness to spend on necessary home modifications [2]. - The policy not only alleviates the financial burden on the elderly but also stimulates market demand for aging-related products and services [3]. - The implementation of similar policies in other regions, such as Hebei Province, indicates a growing trend towards supporting elderly home modifications through financial incentives [3].

Group 1: Anta Sports and Wolf Claw Brand - Anta Sports appointed Yao Jian as the president of the Wolf Claw brand, effective July 1, 2025, to enhance global business operations [1] - Yao Jian previously served as the general manager of Amer Sports Greater China, overseeing multiple brands, which may improve operational efficiency for Wolf Claw [1] - This strategic move is expected to strengthen Wolf Claw's position in the outdoor market and positively impact the outdoor sports segment [1] Group 2: National Subsidy Policy - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the "old for new" subsidy program, with 162 billion yuan already distributed to localities [2] - The "old for new" policy will be implemented throughout 2025, aiming to stabilize market expectations and enhance consumer confidence [2] - This policy is likely to support sectors such as home appliances and automobiles, contributing to an overall economic recovery [2] Group 3: Pop Mart and Labubu Pre-sale - Pop Mart's Labubu pre-sale on June 18 saw all items sold out, indicating a significant demand shift [3] - The adjustment in supply strategy led to a notable decrease in the secondary market price for Labubu items, with average transaction prices dropping from 2279.7 yuan to 1181.3 yuan [3] - This development is expected to provide support for Pop Mart's stock price and positively influence the blind box industry [3] Group 4: Haitian Flavor Industry's Hong Kong Listing - Haitian Flavor Industry officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 19, with initial stock price fluctuations reflecting cautious market sentiment [4] - The stock opened with a nearly 4% increase but later fell below the issue price, closing with a slight gain of 0.55% at 36.5 HKD per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of 213.1 billion HKD [4] - The market's mixed reaction indicates differing investor views on valuation and future growth prospects, increasing attention on the condiment sector [4]

Market Growth - The water purifier market has accelerated significantly this year, with retail sales increasing by 24.4% and retail volume by 16.7% from January to May, making it the second highest growth category in the home appliance industry after cleaning appliances [1] - The market share of high-capacity water purifiers has grown rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more efficient products [1] Policy Impact - The inclusion of water purifiers in the consumer product replacement subsidy program is crucial for the industry's growth, lowering the barriers for high-quality water products and encouraging companies to invest in R&D [1][2] - The implementation of the "old for new" policy has effectively activated the stagnant market, allowing water purification devices to enter more households [2] Consumer Trends - A report by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association highlights ten major consumption trends for household water use, emphasizing the importance of quality water purifiers and the growing demand for personalized drinking experiences [2] - 79% of consumers are concerned about water quality, with a focus on freshness, taste, and mineral retention, reflecting a shift in consumer needs towards more specific drinking scenarios [2] Industry Standards - The industry is urged to seize opportunities for sustainable development, with initiatives like the "China Residents' Drinking Water and Water Purifier Knowledge Q&A" series aimed at educating consumers about safe drinking practices [3] - The market for household ice-making water purifiers is expanding rapidly, but there is currently a lack of unified standards for these products, prompting the China Household Electrical Appliances Association to work on establishing group standards by the end of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "618" shopping festival has seen a significant surge in sales for both online and offline markets, driven by substantial discounts and government subsidies, but concerns about the sustainability of this consumption trend persist as the industry grapples with the potential withdrawal of these financial incentives [1][7][9]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The "618" shopping festival has led to a notable increase in foot traffic and sales in physical stores, with some stores reporting a 105% year-on-year increase in customer visits [4]. - Online platforms like JD.com and Tmall have also experienced explosive sales growth, with JD.com reporting a 161% increase in home appliance sales during the festival [5][6]. - Specific product categories such as laptops, smartwatches, and wireless earphones saw year-on-year sales growth of 125%, 144%, and 104% respectively [4]. Group 2: Government Subsidies - Government subsidies have become a crucial factor in driving consumer purchases, with many consumers inquiring about the availability of these subsidies before making purchases [7]. - As of May 31, the government’s consumption upgrade policy has led to sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with 1.75 billion subsidies issued [7]. - Recent announcements have expanded the range of products eligible for subsidies, including smart home devices, indicating ongoing government support for consumer electronics [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The consumer electronics market is described as dynamically saturated, with limited growth potential, raising concerns about the long-term impact of subsidy withdrawal on demand [9]. - Companies are advised to prepare for a potential end to subsidies and to focus on international markets for growth opportunities, as domestic markets may not provide significant expansion [10]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards collaboration among companies, with strategic partnerships being formed to enhance capabilities in AI and logistics [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On June 19, 2025, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was 710 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal shows marginal improvement signs, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines rising this period, the cumulative import growth rate declining, and the cleaned coal inventory continuing to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 19, 2025, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1374.0 yuan/ton, down 0.11%, and the third round of price cut for coke has been implemented. The Fed keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027. The supply of raw materials shows marginal improvement signs, and the hot metal output has declined from the high level. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 790.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J主力合约收盘价 was 1374.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. JM期货合约持仓量 was 685871.00 hands, down 14200.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 54570.00 hands, down 1510.00 hands. The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 40681.00 hands, up 6519.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 1688.00 hands, down 163.00 hands. The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 23.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 27.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 90.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 710.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 110.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 930.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. The J主力合约基差 was 71.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the JM主力合约基差 was 189.50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 336.13 million tons, up 8.72 million tons; the cleaned coal inventory was 251.47 million tons, up 6.41 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points. The raw coal output was 40328.40 million tons, up 1397.80 million tons. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons. The daily average output of raw coal of 523 coking coal mines was 189.50 million tons, up 1.80 million tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 544.73 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 258.69 million tons, down 8.16 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 798.07 million tons, down 20.85 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 125.71 million tons, down 1.30 million tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 773.98 million tons, up 3.07 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 642.84 million tons, down 2.96 million tons. The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 12.32 days, up 0.06 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons. The output of coking coal was 3926.16 million tons, down 235.31 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton. The coke output was 4237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points. The crude steel output was 8654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The relevant national departments responded to the news of the suspension of "national subsidies": This year, the state has arranged 300 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and a total of 162 billion yuan of funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. - The National Defense General Headquarters decided to launch a level - 4 flood control emergency response for Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Guizhou on June 18, and sent 3 working groups to key areas to assist in guiding flood relief work. - According to US Treasury data, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds in April were 757 billion US dollars, down from 765 billion US dollars in March; Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion US dollars, up from 1.131 trillion US dollars in March. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the output of industrial raw coal above the designated size was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May, the output of industrial raw coal above the designated size was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the daily average output was 13.01 million tons. The growth rate of raw coal production has accelerated. According to customs statistics, from January to May, the national coal imports were 189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [2].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/6/19 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,103 | +1↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1488632 | -13154↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 90,064 | -8938↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 5 | +3↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: Still treat it as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Key points from the logic part: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,910 yuan/ton on June 18th, the average profit of steel mills was 100 yuan/ton. 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. As of June 18th, the incremental steel billet supply in the East China region in June was about 470,000 tons, with export orders accounting for 36.4%. The increase in steel billet supply was mainly due to the narrowing profit of rebar and more rolling line overhauls. The finished products continued the previous trend, trading in a narrow range at a low level with light market sentiment. Downstream demand has seasonally weakened and is unlikely to improve in the short term, while high -开工 and high - output still persist. The current finished product fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and weak demand [2] Group 4 - Suggestion: It is still recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [2][3] Group 5 - Later concerns: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand situation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the ongoing discussions regarding the temporary unavailability of the "national subsidy" (国补) for the old-for-new consumption policy in certain regions, clarifying that there is no cancellation of the subsidy and that the program continues to operate effectively across most provinces [4][5][6]. Group 1: Current Status of National Subsidy - Discussions on the temporary unavailability of "national subsidy" in regions like Chongqing, Jiangsu, and Hubei have gained attention on social media [2][3]. - Official responses from Jiangsu and Chongqing confirm that the "national subsidy" policy has not been suspended, with Jiangsu clarifying that the subsidy operates under a limit management system [4][5]. - Hubei's subsidy program is confirmed to run throughout 2025, with daily limited issuance of qualification vouchers for certain products [5]. Group 2: Implementation and Funding - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is a significant initiative at the national level, with local governments having some autonomy in its implementation details [6]. - The total funding for the subsidy has doubled from 150 billion yuan last year to 300 billion yuan this year, with funds allocated based on various regional factors [8][9]. - As of May 31, 2025, the five major categories of the "old-for-new" program have generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [13]. Group 3: Impact and Future Outlook - The policy has been effective in stimulating consumption and upgrading product structures, with significant sales figures reported in various provinces [12][13]. - Experts suggest that with ongoing funding and policy optimization, the "old-for-new" program is expected to continue benefiting consumers and driving economic activity [12][13].