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社评:人民币受青睐是现实选择,不是对抗游戏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 16:51
Core Viewpoint - The issuance of sovereign bonds denominated in RMB by Russia marks a significant step in the internationalization of the Chinese currency, driven by market logic and global trade dynamics rather than geopolitical rivalry [1][2][3] Group 1: RMB Internationalization - Russia will issue its first sovereign bonds in RMB on December 8, with subscription starting on December 2, highlighting the growing acceptance of RMB in global markets [1] - The total amount of RMB assets in global foreign exchange reserves is approximately $247 billion, with over 80 countries incorporating RMB into their reserves [2] - The share of RMB in global trade financing reached 8.5% in October, making it the second most used currency in this sector [2] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The increasing preference for RMB is driven by economic factors, particularly the use of financial sanctions by the U.S., which has made RMB assets attractive due to their relative stability and lower volatility [3] - Investors are motivated to allocate RMB assets not out of ideological alignment but to optimize portfolios, diversify risks, and preserve value [3] Group 3: Global Monetary System - The global monetary system is undergoing structural changes, transitioning from a dollar-dominated framework to a multi-centered system, with RMB's rise supported by China's economic resilience and market appeal [3] - The international status of a currency is built on long-term economic strength, institutional trust, and market acceptance, rather than self-proclamation [3] Group 4: China's Approach - China maintains a cautious and steady approach to RMB internationalization, emphasizing market-driven and voluntary participation rather than seeking currency hegemony [4] - The preference for RMB is seen as a rational choice rather than a confrontational stance, indicating a need for more options in the global financial landscape [4]
点心债年内发行规模已突破万亿元关口
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-01 16:25
Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB bond market, known as "dim sum bonds," is experiencing robust growth driven by increasing demand and supply, with issuance surpassing 1 trillion yuan in 2024 for the first time, reflecting the deepening internationalization of the RMB and the growing recognition of RMB assets in global financial markets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Dynamics - The issuance of dim sum bonds has reached 1,105.825 billion yuan with 1,236 bonds issued as of December 1 this year, marking a significant milestone in the market [1]. - The growth in issuance is attributed to the increasing internationalization of the RMB and the expansion of offshore RMB funding pools, particularly in markets like Hong Kong, which provides stable funding supply and lowers financing costs [1][3]. - The average interest rate of dim sum bonds is lower than that of USD bonds, making them attractive for issuers looking to reduce overseas financing costs [2]. Group 2: Diverse Issuers and Investors - The range of issuers has diversified, now including not only large state-owned enterprises and financial institutions but also technology companies and high-quality private enterprises, reflecting a shift towards a more market-driven approach [3]. - Investors have also diversified, moving from predominantly Asian funds to include foreign sovereign funds and pension funds, indicating a broader acceptance of RMB assets globally [3]. - The market is evolving into a healthy ecosystem characterized by multi-entity participation and global capital allocation, enhancing its ability to serve the real economy [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Dim sum bonds are expected to play a crucial role in the offshore RMB asset allocation framework, acting as a stabilizing force within the RMB asset system alongside onshore panda bonds [3][4]. - Future development should focus on enhancing connectivity, strengthening infrastructure, accelerating product innovation, and broadening the range of issuers to improve market attractiveness and activity [3]. - There is a suggestion to enrich the product offerings by introducing long-term, high-rated varieties and developing credit derivatives to meet diverse financing and risk hedging needs [4].
美债每100天增1万亿,普京反手借人民币,美元信用归零 ?彻底逆转
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 13:27
与此同时,环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)发布的10月数据更是一记重锤:人民币在贸易融资市场的使用量稳居全球第二,仅次于美元,全球支付份额攀 升至8.5%。 当"欠债还钱"变成了"欠债印钱",当"私有财产神圣不可侵犯"变成了"随时没收你的资产",这个建立在美元信用基础上的全球金融体系,是否已经烂到了根 子里? 随着俄罗斯、匈牙利、阿联酋纷纷发行人民币债券,一场全球范围内的"货币起义"正在爆发。 美国国债突破37万亿的警报声中,人民币凭什么成为各国争抢的"香饽饽"? 这一轮金融大洗牌,究竟会如何重塑世界财富的分配格局? 一场全球性的"弃暗投明" 据彭博社近期汇编的最新数据, 尽管美联储还在维持高利率吸引资金,试图将全球资本回流美国,但全球各国政府对人民币债券的热情却创下了历史新 高。 今年以来,外国政府发行的人民币债券总规模已达130亿元,这个名单不仅有被制裁的俄罗斯,还有作为美国盟友或伙伴的匈牙利、印尼和阿联酋。 | 1 USD | | | 57.70% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 EUR | | 14.27% | | | ని GBb | 5.64% | | | | 4 ...
俄罗斯即将发行人民币主权债券 业内:丰富人民币计价的主权产品样本
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 12:50
俄罗斯即将在本国发售首只以人民币计价的主权债券,期限为3至7年,票面周期为182天,每张债券面 值为1万元人民币。 业内认为,该举措是人民币国际化在地化运用的一个重要示范。 根据俄罗斯财政部官网,俄罗斯财政部宣布计划首次发行以人民币计价的俄罗斯联邦政府债券。投资者 将获得两期以人民币计价的固定票面收益联邦债券,期限为3至7年,票面周期为182天,每张债券面值 为1万元人民币。 实际上,历史上已有多个国家发行过以人民币计价的主权债,包括英国、韩国、波兰、匈牙利、印度尼 西亚、阿联酋的沙迦酋长国等。 例如,英国政府官网显示,2014年10月,英国政府成功在伦敦发行了以人民币计价的主权债券。2015年 12月,韩国政府在中国银行间债券市场发行30亿元三年期人民币债券,中标利率为3.00%。据悉,这是 首只境外主权国家在中国境内发行"熊猫债"。 发行规模及票面利率将根据定于2025年12月2日进行的认购申请簿收集结果确定,技术性配售计划于 2025年12月8日进行。投资者可选择以人民币或俄罗斯卢布购买债券并收取相关收益。 2016年8月,波兰在中国银行间债券市场成功发行三年期人民币主权债券30亿元。这笔债券是波兰首次 ...
人民币国际化是市场逻辑下的必然选择
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-12-01 12:20
近日,俄罗斯财政部宣布将于2025年12月8日首次发行以人民币计价的主权债券,认购登记已于12 月2日启动。这一举措再次引发国际舆论关注。人民币国际化并非出于对抗目的,而是全球市场逻辑演 进、国际贸易结构变化与中国金融体系稳健发展的自然结果。它既非刻意为之的战略进攻,也非被动防 御的权宜之计,而是在多重动因交织下水到渠成的历史进程。 首先,人民币债券海外市场追捧,源于其高收益高稳定性的市场主动选择。近年来,包括俄罗斯、 匈牙利、印度尼西亚、阿联酋等国纷纷发行人民币计价主权债券,同时越来越多外国机构在中国境内发 行"熊猫债券"。这些行为的背后是对人民币资产价值的认可。在全球主要经济体利率持续波动、部分货 币信用风险上升的背景下,人民币资产展现出相对稳定的收益率和较低的波动性,成为全球投资者优化 资产配置、分散风险的重要选项。这种由市场供需关系主导的资本流动,恰恰体现了人民币作为国际投 资货币的功能正在稳步增强。 其次,人民币国际化是应对美元霸权及其支付工具武器化的被动适应。近年来,美国频繁将美元清 算系统(如SWIFT)作为制裁他国的工具,使得许多国家深刻意识到过度依赖单一货币带来的战略脆弱 性。在此背景下,推 ...
展望“十五五” 专家学者共话经济金融新机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 10:34
全国人大常委会委员、全国人大社会建设委员会委员郑功成分享了对养老金融的看法。首先,养老金融关系到老年人未来的生活保障,发展养老金融既是老 龄社会加速发展的现实需要,也是提供清晰稳定预期的重要制度安排,建议把养老金融作为积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的重要组成部分。其次,正视养老 金融发展中存在的结构性失衡问题,需有清晰的判断和理性的认识。第三,要进一步提高养老金融政策的精准度。他表示,"十五五"时期,我国基本养老保 险制度必定成熟定型,多层次养老金结构将优化重组,对养老金融的需求也会持续增加。 财政部原副部长朱光耀表示,中国式现代化是在人口规模巨大的国家实现的现代化,是全体人民共同富裕的现代化,是物质文明和精神文明相协调的现代 化,是人与自然和谐共生的现代化,是走和平发展道路的现代化。"十四五"时期我国取得了巨大的发展成绩,为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化这一目标奠 定了良好基础,但同时也要看到国际环境的变化。面对国际挑战,我们需坚持新发展理念,以高质量发展的稳定性战胜外部环境的不确定性,确保2035年基 本实现社会主义现代化目标的实现。 央广网北京12月1日消息(记者 樊瑞)11月28日,由瞭望智库主办、全球 ...
“金融有为”地方纵横谈丨以构建市场体系为核心的区域金融中心模式
申万宏源研究· 2025-12-01 06:38
其次,区域金融中心的发展需要构建起完整的金融市场体系。 区域金融中心是由市场主体、 金融机构、交易市场、监管机制及金融基础设施构成的完整有机整体。过去地方在发展金融上形 成了一些观念上的偏差,比如过度注重吸引金融机构在当地注册,过度激励导致企业扎堆上 市、"带病闯关"等。地方发展区域金融中心一要注重打造培育市场主体的良性生态,要从实质性 优化营商环境、降低企业经营成本的角度为市场主体的落地生根及金融机构的聚集发展创造良好 条件;二要注重交易市场建设,要在全国统一大市场建设的基础上,推进地方金融市场发展,并 且注重地方金融交易市场与当地技术要素市场、数字要素市场、碳交易市场及区域股权市场之间 的衔接和互动,通过完善的交易市场体系来提升市场流动性;三要注重构建清晰的市场运行规则 和监管制度,确保区域金融市场安全、有序、透明、平稳地运行。 最后,区域金融中心的发展需要一系列配套的保障机制。 区域金融中心的打造不仅要着眼于 硬件设施、市场规模,更要注重法律法规、人才队伍、信用体系及金融文化等软环境建设。要健 全信用体系与创新机制,完善征信、评级、担保、风险补偿等基础制度;要持续推进金融高水平 对外开放,推进金融市场制 ...
谁才是真正的大国?如今中国的实力不一样,美国的实力也不一样了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 05:47
历史的回音总是会在最意想不到的时刻展现其深刻的意义。2025年,中美再度站在了关税战的风口浪 尖,但这一次,世界的背景发生了变化。中国已不再是2000年那个刚刚加入世贸组织的国家,也不像 2008年那样,美国孤立无援地试图挽救全球金融体系。今天的世界已经不同,中国的实力发生了变化, 美国的地位也发生了改变。 这场较量背后的逻辑非常简单清晰:中国利用经过三十年积淀的战略定力和庞大市场带来的产业优势, 而美国则通过不断扩大的财政赤字和货币操控维系着它的霸权地位。此次较量,不仅仅是关税层面的争 斗,更是两国制度与国力、信心之间的较量。 2000年时,中国与东盟的贸易额仅为400亿美元。当时中 国提出要与东盟建立自由贸易区,但却遭遇了不少质疑和担忧。许多东盟国家担心自己无法承受与中国 的合作带来的压力。 然而,中国并没有采用强硬的手段,而是提出了一个极具智慧的解决方案——早 期收获计划。通过让出市场、减免关税,甚至有些吃亏,中国换取了信任。如今,回头来看,2024年, 东盟已经成为中国最大的贸易伙伴,双方的年贸易额接近1万亿美元。 这正是战略定力的体现。中国当 时的让步,为小国提供了安全感,而美国今天加征的关税却让连 ...
农银汇理基金:细水长流行更远
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 05:47
"十五五规划"中提出了十五五时期经济社会发展的主要目标,其中首要提出"高质量发展取得显著成 效。经济增长保持在合理区间,全要素生产率稳步提升,居民消费率明显提高,内需拉动经济增长主动 力作用持续增强,经济增长潜力得到充分释放,全国统一大市场建设纵深推进,超大规模市场优势持续 显现,新兴工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化取得重大进展,发展新质生产力、构建新发展格局、 建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"。这一部署充分凸显我国超大规模市场的独特优势与内需驱动的战 略重要性,我们长期看好内需领域优质企业的投资价值与回报潜力。 规划同时将"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"列为核心目标之一,明确提出培育壮大新兴产业与未来产业, 打造新兴支柱产业,加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群化发展。 展望未来,"十五五规划"明确指出:"世界百年变局加速演进,国际力量对比深刻调整,新一轮科技革 命和产业变革加速突破,我国具备主动运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境的诸多有利因素。"这一判断已在 多重领域得到实践验证:9月3日纪念抗日战争胜利80周年阅兵顺利举行,多款先进武器装备集中亮相, 既彰显了我国制造业的核心竞争力,也为市场 ...
特讯!最近的世界格局在发生变化,两个超级大国,到底在争什么?引发全球关注
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 03:44
Group 1: Core Economic Competition - The ongoing economic tug-of-war between China and the U.S. is fundamentally about global dominance, particularly in trade, technology, and finance [1] - The U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China by relocating supply chains, which is framed as "de-risking," but is essentially about maintaining control over global industry [3] - Despite pressures, both countries are unlikely to fully decouple; trade volumes are expected to continue rising in 2024, indicating interdependence [3] Group 2: Technological Rivalry - The U.S. has intensified efforts to restrict China's high-tech industries, particularly in semiconductors and AI, through various legislative measures [5] - China is significantly increasing its R&D spending, projected to reach 3.61 trillion yuan in 2024, with a focus on overcoming key technological challenges [5][8] - Both nations recognize that technology is a critical battleground for future dominance, making it unlikely for either side to concede easily [5] Group 3: Financial Dynamics - The U.S. is using interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions to maintain the dollar's dominance and attract global capital, while also exerting financial pressure on other nations [5] - China is gradually promoting the internationalization of the yuan and maintaining a stable monetary policy to mitigate financial risks and external shocks [5] - Both countries are strategically maneuvering to increase their shares in the global financial system, as finance is essential for modern economies [5] Group 4: Evolving Trade Relations - The previous economic relationship, once a stabilizing force, has transformed into a battleground with increasing friction, yet both countries remain interdependent [7] - The U.S. attempts to use tariffs and supply chain shifts to pressure China, but alternatives like Vietnam and India lack the capacity to fully replace China [7] - China is focusing on internal improvements, such as expanding domestic demand and reforming income distribution to drive economic growth [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The competition between the two nations is expected to be a long-term struggle, with both sides seeking a balance rather than a definitive victory [9][11] - Ongoing dialogues and negotiations indicate a pragmatic approach, as neither side wants to push the other to a breaking point [11] - The competition reflects structural tensions between a dominant power and an emerging one, with internal governance and strategic stability being crucial for long-term success [11]