Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced volatility, starting at $3365.22 per ounce, reaching a high of $3414.41 before declining to a low of $3288.63, ultimately closing at $3305.77, reflecting a daily drop of $59.45 or 1.77% [1][2]. Market Influences - Hawkish comments from Powell limited bullish sentiment in gold, while positive trade news, including a breakthrough trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, boosted market optimism [2][11]. - The Bank of England's 25 basis point rate cut pressured the euro and supported the dollar, contributing to gold's decline [2][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is facing short-term moving average resistance, with indicators suggesting a potential for further declines to support levels of $3260 or $3160 [2][13]. - The monthly chart indicates a bullish trend, but the current price action suggests a potential for high-level consolidation or a peak if it fails to break above $3500 [13][15]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound adjustment phase until further bullish catalysts emerge, with geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff policies providing some support for gold prices [11][13]. - The anticipated end of the rate cut cycle by the end of the year may reduce gold's attractiveness, leading to a potential peak and correction phase [11][15].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change since January and March [1][3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates and will not use early rate cuts to address economic downturn risks [1][3] - Powell noted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Trump administration's new policies on the economy, stating that inflation effects could be temporary or more persistent [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. economy's "hard data" remains robust, providing the Fed with more time for observation and assessment, despite a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, the worst performance since 2022 [5][6] - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, with a record $140.5 billion deficit in March, contributing to a significant drag on GDP [5] - Consumer sentiment has declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index falling to 52.5, the lowest since August 2022 [5] Group 3 - The job market remains stable, with 177,000 new jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, alleviating some economic concerns [6] - Analysts predict that the Fed may cut rates later in the year, with July and September seen as potential meeting points for a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] - The divergence in monetary policy responses is evident, as the Fed maintains its stance while other central banks, like the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, have opted for rate cuts [8]

新西兰联储官员Kawkesby：就业市场数据确认活动受抑。 ...

分析师：就业市场最终将推动美联储降息 金十数据5月8日讯，Renaissance Macro的Neil Dutta认为，就业市场最终将推动美联储的降息步伐。他表 示："劳动力市场状况已经降温。美联储凭什么认为这会自行稳定下来？它不能也不会，这意味着最终 需要采取政策应对措施。" ...

金十数据5月6日讯，Monex Europe的分析师在一份报告中说，在美联储周三的政策决定和加拿大周五的 就业数据公布后，加元面临下跌的风险。美联储可能会打压市场对其降息的押注，因通胀居高不下且就 业市场依然稳固。他们说，加拿大就业数据疲弱也有可能进一步加速对加元的抛售。与上周美国就业数 据形成对比的是，加拿大经济数据可能显示出一些与关税相关的疲软，这可能强化对加拿大央行6月降 息的预期。 Monex：加元短期内存在下行风险 ...

"抢进口"：短期为美国经济提供缓冲 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 一季度在"抢进口"影响下，美国 GDP 环比增速转负。抢进口行为或能一定程度延 缓关税对美国经济的冲击，短期内或不会立刻看到美国通胀与就业数据恶化。在就 业市场仍稳，通胀反弹风险尚不明晰的情况下，美联储短期内或难以降息。 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 登记编号 S0880525040119 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 2025-05-06 宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.4.28-2025.5.2），全球大类资产价格 中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。日经 225 上涨 3.2%，标普 500 上涨 2.9%，恒生指数上涨 2.4%，发达市场股票指数上涨 2.9%，新兴市 场股票指数上涨 1.9%。大宗商品价格涨跌分化，其中，IPE 布油期 货上涨 1 ...

Employment Situation Report - The U.S. added +177K new jobs in April, surpassing the +133K expected by analysts, while the unemployment rate remained at +4.2% [1][2] - Previous months' job numbers were revised down, with March's jobs revised from +228K to +185K and February's from +151K to +117K [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to +0.2% from +0.3% expected, with year-over-year growth at +3.8%, down 10 basis points from estimates [3] Sector Performance - Education & Health Services led job growth with +70K jobs added, followed by +29K in Transportation & Warehousing and +24K in Leisure & Hospitality [4] - Federal agencies saw a minor job loss of -9K, which was lower than expected due to severance packages associated with recent layoffs [4] Market Reaction - The labor market's resilience is reflected in pre-market index movements, with the Dow up +425 points, S&P 500 up +60 points, and Nasdaq up +215 points [5] Q1 Earnings Reports - ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.76 per share, beating estimates by 4 cents but missing on revenue [6] - Chevron posted earnings of $2.18 per share, beating estimates by 3 cents but missing revenue expectations by -2% [6] - Shell reported a strong earnings beat of +19.5% ahead of the market opening [6] Company-Specific Earnings - Wendy's reported earnings of 20 cents per share, in line with estimates, but revenues of $523.47 million slightly missed consensus [7] - Piper Sandler achieved a +69% positive earnings surprise with earnings of $4.09 per share and revenues of $383 million, outperforming consensus by +7.8% [8]

Employment Situation Report - The U.S. added +177K new jobs in April, surpassing the expected +133K [1] - The Unemployment Rate remained stable at +4.2% [1] - March's job numbers were revised down from +228K to +185K, and February's from +151K to +117K [2] Wage Growth and Labor Participation - Hourly Wages increased by +0.2%, lower than the expected +0.3%, with year-over-year growth at +3.8% [3] - The Average Workweek increased by 10 basis points to 34.3 hours [3] - Labor Force Participation reached 62.6%, matching the highs of September last year [3] Sector Performance - Education & Health Services added +70K jobs, followed by +29K in Transportation & Warehousing and +24K in Leisure & Hospitality [4] - Federal agencies saw a slight reduction of -9K jobs, attributed to severance packages from recent layoffs [4] Market Reaction - The positive employment report contributed to pre-market gains, with the Dow up +425 points, S&P 500 up +60 points, and Nasdaq up +215 points [5] Q1 Earnings Overview - ExxonMobil reported a +69% positive earnings surprise at $4.09 per share, with revenues of $383 million, outperforming consensus by +7.8% [6] - Despite the earnings news, ExxonMobil shares are down -15% year to date [6]

金十数据5月2日讯，美国非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚20:30公布，4月数据将首次揭示关税不确定性 对就业市场的潜在影响。狂风骤雨即将来袭，敬请投资者留意风险… 相关链接 4月非农增幅将大大下降？20:30揭晓 ...

财报季、关税成为美股市场的关键变量。 五一假期，美股正常交易，三大指数集体走强，纳指一度超2%，受财报超预期刺激，美股大型科技股全线大 涨，微软一度大涨超10%，Meta最高涨超8%。 与此同时，关税政策的变数仍持续扰动美股市场。美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，预计今天结束前将有 关税消息宣布。有分析人士称，预计这将是一项与印度达成协议的声明，有越来越多迹象表明印度能达成协 议。 另外，美联储密切关注的美国就业市场出现了意外动荡。美国劳工部最新发布的数据显示，截至4月26日当 周，首次申请失业救济人数为24.1万人，大超市场预期。美联储理事沃勒此前多次强调，如果美国劳动力市场 严重恶化，美联储可能会更多、更快降息。 大涨 北京时间5月1日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数全线走强，截至22:50，道指涨0.78%，纳指大涨2.35%，标 普500指数涨1.37%。 受财报超预期刺激，美股大型科技股集体大涨，微软大涨超10%，公司2025财年第三财季全线超预期，云计算 业务强劲增长；Meta一度大涨超8%，第一季度广告收入录得两位数增长，大幅上调今年支出指引。另外，英 伟达涨超4%，博通、亚马逊涨超3%，特斯拉涨超2 ...