Group 1 - The core point of the article is that South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, surpassing the expected increase of 2.0% [1]

Company News - NIO's stock rose over 1% in pre-market trading, with September vehicle deliveries reaching 34,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 64% [1] - Xpeng Motors' stock increased over 2% in pre-market trading, reporting September vehicle deliveries of 41,581 units, a year-on-year growth of 95% [1] - Li Auto's stock rose 0.6% in pre-market trading, with September vehicle deliveries totaling 33,951 units [1] - Nike's stock surged over 4% in pre-market trading, reporting Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2026 at $11.7 billion, exceeding market expectations of $11 billion [1] Market Dynamics - U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.30%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.41%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.48% [1] - Major European stock indices are up, with the FTSE 100 rising by 0.61%, CAC 40 increasing by 0.46%, and DAX up by 0.38% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, surpassing the expected increase of 0.1% and the previous value of 0.1% [1]

Group 1 - Italy's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected growth of 1.7% [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.2%, which is more than the anticipated decline of 0.1% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) preliminary value for September shows a month-on-month decrease of 1%, contrasting with a previous increase of 0.4% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of national economic fundamentals from September 19 to September 26, 2025, showing that the overall economic situation is stable with some fluctuations in different sectors [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.9 points (previous value: 127.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.8 points (previous value: 5.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Slightly - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.1 (previous value: 127.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The PTA operating rate is 76.5% (previous value: 77.3%), a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [11][16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commodity Housing Transaction Area Rises Slightly - The commodity housing sales high - frequency index is 42.5 (previous value: 42.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.3 points), and the year - on - year decline has narrowed [1][9]. - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 26.7 million square meters (previous value: 21.3 million square meters) [11][27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Rises - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 121.3 (previous value: 121.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 7.3 points (previous value: 6.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 40.1% (previous value: 34.4%), an increase of 5.7 percentage points [11][42]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 points (previous value: 2.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed [1][9]. - The CCFI index is 1087 points (previous value: 1120 points), a decrease of 33 points [11][44]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Box Office of Movies Rises Significantly - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.4 (previous value: 120.4), with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.5 points (previous value: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - The average daily box office of movies is 138.85 million yuan (previous value: 118.67 million yuan), an increase of 20.18 million yuan [11]. 3.7 CPI: Wholesale Price of Pork Drops Slightly - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.7 yuan/kg) [62]. 3.8 PPI: Copper and Coal Prices Continue to Rise - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%) [1][9]. - The spot settlement price of LME copper is $10024/ton (previous value: $9950/ton), and the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is $2648/ton (previous value: $2701/ton) [68]. 3.9 Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The transportation high - frequency index is 131.0 (previous value: 130.8), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.8 points (previous value: 9.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 35.19 million person - times (previous value: 38.71 million person - times) [79]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Drops - The inventory high - frequency index is 162.2 (previous value: 162.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed [1][10]. - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 188,000 tons (previous value: 206,000 tons) [86]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Rises Significantly - The financing high - frequency index is 238.0 (previous value: 237.4), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 30.1 points (previous value: 30.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. - The net financing of local bonds is 122.5 billion yuan (previous value: 30.9 billion yuan) [95].

Stagflation Definition and Components - Stagflation is defined as a combination of weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [1] - Economic growth is measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which tracks what's made inside US borders [2] - Inflation is tracked using CPI (Consumer Price Index), representing a household shopping basket, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a broader measure favored by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Job market health is assessed via the unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with weekly unemployment claims offering higher-frequency insights [5] Historical Context and Current Assessment - The 1970s experienced significant stagflation with unemployment exceeding 7-8%, double-digit inflation, and contracting GDP [6] - The pandemic period saw a different pattern: initial COVID impact led to unemployment spikes and GDP decline, but without immediate price increases (stag without flation) [7] - In 2022, stimulus measures contributed to inflation exceeding 9%, while the economy contracted modestly and unemployment remained low [7] - Currently, unemployment is moderate, PCE is in the high 2% range, and GDP is relatively strong, not indicative of 1970s-style stagflation [8] Market and Economic Indicators to Watch - Precious metals, such as gold (up over 40% this year) and silver (approaching 60%), tend to perform well during periods of elevated inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Key data points to monitor include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with particular attention to services inflation (shelter, insurance, healthcare costs) [9] - Energy prices and the strength of the US dollar are important factors, as an oil price surge or a weaker dollar could quickly reignite headline inflation [9][10] - Real incomes (workers' paychecks after inflation) should be monitored relative to demand; a decline in savings and increased credit card usage could signal potential issues [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" remains unchanged, with signals of policy adjustments being released, emphasizing quality and stability in quantity, while economic downward pressure has increased in the short term. The "anti-involution" trend may become a major factor influencing economic performance in the second half of the year, with short-term economic pressures existing but long-term benefits for high-quality development [2][6][49]. Supply Side - In August 2025, China's industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.5 percentage points from July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2%, reflecting the impact of summer heat on supply chain disruptions and continued low real estate investment [3][9]. - The manufacturing and high-tech industries showed more stability, indicating resilience in China's industrial transition towards high quality, although global demand uncertainty and extreme weather pose greater constraints on future growth [3][9]. Demand Side - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a phase adjustment in consumption growth due to policy changes [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 grew by 0.5% year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a phase adjustment in investment growth due to policy changes [4][15]. - Exports totaled $321.81 billion in August 2025, up 4.4% year-on-year, but down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with structural changes in exports continuing [4][16]. Price Dynamics - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, with the decline in PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in industrial product prices [7][23][28]. Monetary and Financial Aspects - In August 2025, the new social financing scale was 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal adjustments in credit and off-balance-sheet financing [8][31]. - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in corporate demand for current deposits and improved economic activity [8][44]. - The broad money supply (M2) remained stable at an 8.8% year-on-year growth rate, reflecting steady monetary supply expansion [8][46]. Future Outlook - The industrial output growth rate for 2025 is expected to stabilize around 6%, slightly down from 6.4% in the first half of the year, with policy support preventing significant declines [49].