Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver continued to decline under pressure during the session, but the downward momentum weakened, and the London gold and silver prices formed strong support at the integer level [3]. - The market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened marginally after the US - Switzerland tariff agreement, and profit - taking by long - positions intensified the pressure on the high - level correction of gold prices. FOMC officials' hawkish signals reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut to below 50%, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals [3]. - In the short term, if the US stock market continues to decline, liquidity risks may increase the correction pressure on precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected and the rise in US Treasury yields pose potential negatives to gold prices. - In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the US dollar make gold attractive. Central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center. The recommended trading ranges are 900 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold 2512 contract and 11500 - 12300 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver 2512 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 929.46 yuan/gram, down 23.74 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 11933 yuan/kg, down 418 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 101723 lots, down 11874 lots; the Shanghai silver main contract was 311515 lots, up 101189 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 108348 lots, down 7750 lots; the Shanghai silver was 105453 lots, down 16646 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 90426 kg (unchanged); the silver was 569355 kg, down 7539 kg [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 931.45 yuan/gram, down 27.35 yuan; the silver spot price was 11977 yuan/kg, down 441 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1.99 yuan/gram, down 3.61 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 44 yuan/kg, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1044 tons, down 4.93 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15218.42 tons, up 45.14 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver was 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the global annual demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.6%, down 2.74%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.22%, up 0.1% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 26.76%, up 2%. 3.5. Industry News - The US and Switzerland have "basically" reached a trade agreement. US tariffs on Swiss goods will drop from 39% to 15%, and Switzerland will invest $200 billion in the US [3]. - The US will release the Q3 GDP revised value on November 26, along with October personal income, expenditure, and PCE index at 10:00 on the same day. There are also scheduled releases of September non - farm payroll and real wage data, but the release of October CPI data is uncertain [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 16.7% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for three weeks, becoming the second-longest shutdown in history. The two parties remain deadlocked over the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the total U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion, providing potential safe-haven support [2]. - The market's expectation of loose policies from Japan's new political party has strengthened, pushing the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen in the short term, which may continue to suppress the gold price [2]. - Looking ahead, there are many uncertainties in the macro - environment. The London gold price still has strong buying support at the $4000 mark, but subsequent correction risks should be guarded against. The short - term trend of gold and silver will mainly be wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data released on Friday. If the CPI is stronger than expected, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts and lead to a further correction in the gold price. The trading range for the SHFE Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE Gold main contract was 942.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.28 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE Silver main contract was 11467 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 63 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of SHFE Gold were 189131 lots, a decrease of 3672 lots; the main contract positions of SHFE Silver were 377229 lots, a decrease of 9004 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Gold main contract were 109168 lots, a decrease of 1528 lots; the net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Silver main contract were 97767 lots, an increase of 135 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 663366 kilograms, a decrease of 28322 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 938 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11360 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 57 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE Gold main contract was - 4.28 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.78 yuan; the basis of the SHFE Silver main contract was - 107 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, a decrease of 6.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15597.61 tons, a decrease of 79.03 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 52276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 33.48%, an increase of 5.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 24.5%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The two parties are deadlocked over medical subsidies, and it may last until November [2]. - U.S. President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producer [2]. - India and the U.S. are about to reach a trade agreement, potentially reducing the tariff on Indian goods exported to the U.S. from about 50% to 15% - 16% [2]. - There are signs of a缓和 in international trade relations, and there are rumors that senior Chinese and U.S. leaders will hold tariff negotiations in Malaysia [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The subsequent trend of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract will present a pattern of "short - term oscillation with long - term support." There are opportunities to go long on dips during the callback [3]. - The A - share market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. For Shanghai Gold, it's advisable to buy on dips instead of chasing short - term highs. For iron ore, high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. For glass, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization. For eggs, there are short - term long - taking opportunities. For pulp, it's recommended to consider shorting on rebounds [8][13][16][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus: Shanghai Silver 2512 - The contract's price rise was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the reverse market structure caused by spot shortages, and the safe - haven premium from geopolitical conflicts. The price pullback was because of profit - taking near the $53 mark and the weakening of safe - haven demand due to the cease - fire agreement [3]. - Long - term support is solid as green industries like photovoltaics drive industrial demand to increase by 20% annually, and the structural supply - demand gap may last until 2026. The continuation of the Fed's easing cycle and the low gold - silver ratio still attract institutional capital allocation [3][4]. - Key data to track include the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, London silver inventory, and industrial demand data. Consider going long on dips [3][5]. Technical Analysis: Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened higher and closed lower today. The Shanghai Composite Index found support at 3850 points near the close. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Technical Analysis: Shanghai Gold - Shanghai Gold reached a new high with large intraday fluctuations. It's not advisable to chase long positions in the short term. Instead, consider buying on dips [13]. Technical Analysis: Iron Ore - In the short term, the supply side is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project. On the demand side, there has been no actual improvement at the terminal after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically. Technically, it's in a high - level wide - range oscillation, so high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [16][17]. Technical Analysis: Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The main future drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies, as well as supply - side clearance. Technically, after continuous declines, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization [20][21]. Technical Analysis: Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, which restricts price rebounds. However, based on current prices and costs, future egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of $16.90 per chicken. There are short - term long - taking opportunities [23]. Technical Analysis: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has declined today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventory remains high, and the "Golden September" peak season was lackluster. Pulp is expected to remain weak, and it's recommended to short on rebounds [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold maintains a bullish trend, with a strategy focused on buying on dips rather than chasing highs [5][6][7] - Gold prices have shown volatility, with a drop from 3872 to 3793, a total decline of 79 USD, while silver fell from 47.2 to 45.7, a decrease of 1.5 USD [3][7] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on price movements, emphasizing risk control [3][6] Group 2 - The domestic gold market has experienced a decline as anticipated, with prices dropping from 873 to 855, nearly a 20-point decrease, but has shown a recovery to around 870 [7] - International silver prices have also decreased, reinforcing the strategy of waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions, with current support identified around 46 [7] - The international crude oil market is advised to avoid bullish positions unless prices stabilize above 66, with a focus on potential support levels at 61.5 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a bullish trend for gold, with a significant price increase of nearly $100 observed during the holiday period, suggesting that pullbacks present buying opportunities [2][4] - The highest price reached was 3338, and the bullish momentum is expected to continue, with key resistance levels identified at 3370 and 3420, which are crucial for further upward movement [4][5] - The daily chart shows a strong bullish candle, indicating potential upward movement towards the upper Bollinger Band around 3500, suggesting a large upward space [4] Group 2 - For the H4 timeframe, support is noted around 3310, with buying opportunities suggested if a pullback occurs, while targets are set at 3352 and 3370 [5] - Domestic gold futures (沪金) are currently trading around 797, with a bullish outlook after a prior decline, and potential targets above 820 are indicated [5][6] - International silver is showing a clear trend, with support at 31.5 and a focus on buying opportunities around 32, with targets set at 33 and 34 [5][6] Group 3 - Domestic silver futures (沪银) are currently at 8340, with a bullish outlook and targets set at 8400 and 8450, indicating a potential for further upward movement [6] - International crude oil is experiencing adjustments, with a focus on a potential rebound from 55, while the overall long-term trend remains bearish [6] - Domestic fuel oil futures (燃油) are suggested for buying above 2550, with upward targets set at 2700 and 2800, indicating a significant upward trend potential [6]