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国内高频指标跟踪(2025年第19期):进出口和生产小幅修复
Consumption - Automotive consumption remains high, with wholesale and retail sales showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but the four-week average year-on-year growth rate remains stable[4] - Service consumption is relatively flat, with urban congestion indices decreasing and subway passenger flow rebounding, although overall numbers are slightly down year-on-year[4] Investment - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, with special bond issuance reaching CNY 1.48 trillion as of May 18, 2025, and CNY 285.2 billion issued in the first 18 days of May[11] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities show a seasonal rebound but year-on-year growth has dropped from 6.3% to -15.0%[14] Trade and Port Operations - Import and export activities have rebounded due to tariff adjustments, with port operations improving and the number of ships docking at ports increasing significantly[17] - Export freight rates have seen a notable increase, with Shanghai and Ningbo export rates rising by 10.0% and 6.5% respectively[17] Production - Power generation coal consumption has rebounded, indicating marginal recovery in production, with some industries showing improved operating rates[19] - The steel and petrochemical sectors have seen slight improvements in operating rates, although some areas still face year-on-year declines[20] Inventory and Prices - Most inventories have decreased, except for coal and cement, which have seen increases, with coal inventories reaching historical highs[32] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased while Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices overall[34] Currency and Liquidity - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated to 7.20 against the US dollar, with the dollar index rising by 56 basis points due to favorable US economic data[39] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 5 and 10 basis points respectively[36]