四字区 四居区 n III n 0 四周见 n W ne R III SE 三季度民生经济数据 : U 城乡居民收入稳步增长 ●全省居民人均可支配收入27046元 同トタリ地によるの。 I-JUロメ塩ハリ.J /0 ○城镇居民人均可支配收入37338元 同比名义增长4.5% ○农村居民人均可支配收入 16741元 同比名义增长5.5% 八大类商品和服务价格"五涨三降" ●医疗保健类价格同比上涨0.6% 八大类消费均实现增长 〇生活用品及服务类价格同比上涨0.7% ●衣着类价格同比上涨0.8% ●教育文化娱乐类价格同比上涨1.5% ●其他用品及服务类价格同比上涨4.4% ●食品烟酒类价格同比下降1.0% ●居住类价格同比下降0.4% ●交通通信类价格同比下降3.2% 10月20日，国家统计局四川调查总队发布今年前三季度四川民生调查主要数据：全省居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.4%，四川工业 生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降2.8%。四川居民人均消费支出18799元，同比名义增长5.4%，扣除价格因素实际增长5.8%。 那么，前三季度全省物价走势如何？居民消费呈现什么特点？ 服务价格同比上涨0.3% ● ...

消费回落，生产改善 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 41 期） 经济从假期脉冲转向常态增长，消费回落，生产普遍改善，出口运价分化。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 | 1. | 周度高频数据速览 3 | | --- | --- | | | 消费：节后季节性回落 3 1.1. | | | 1.2. 投资：地产小幅回暖 4 | | | 1.3. 进出口：出口运价分化 5 | | | 1.4. 生产：多数回升 6 | | | 库存：表现分化 7 1.5. | | | 1.6. 物价：工业品价格回落 7 | | | 1.7. 流动性：总体平稳 8 | | 2. | 本周重点数据日历 9 | | 3. | 风险提示 9 | 宏观周报 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.19 [Table_Report] 2025-10-20 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，商品消费小幅回落，服务消费在假 期脉冲式增长后逐步回归常态。投资方面，在新型政策性金融工具 与地方政府 ...

海关总署新闻发言人、统计分析司司长吕大良表示，我国是全球第二大货物进口市场，中国的大市场也 是世界的大机遇。前三季度，由于国际市场的部分大宗商品价格下跌，对进口的增速和数据表现造成了 一定的影响，但从数量来看，我国进口的数量指数同比增加了0.6%。从月度走势来看，截至9月份，进 口已经连续4个月增长。受国内生产消费需求拉动，前三季度原油、金属矿砂等进口量分别增加了 2.6%、4.2%，食品烟酒、文化娱乐产品等进口值也分别增长了10.2%和9.4%。随着制造业领域外资准入 限制实现了"清零"，前三季度外商投资企业进口增长了1.1%。 看中国的进口，不仅要看市场的规模， 更要看中国主动扩大进口的大国担当。中国开放的大门越开越大，与越来越多的贸易伙伴分享中国式现 代化的发展机遇。前三季度，我国新增了135种农食产品的准入，涉及50个国家和地区。对同我建交的 最不发达国家实施100%税目产品零关税，自这些国家的进口增长了9.7%。同时，我国正在积极推进通 过商签共同发展经济伙伴关系协定，落实对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品零关税举措。 下个月， 第八届中国国际进口博览会将在上海举办，进博会不仅是展示新品的平台， ...

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Consumption - Travel and tourism activity remains high, with significant recovery in urban and intercity population movement, reflected in increased subway ridership and flight operations[7] - Retail and wholesale volumes for automobiles have slightly declined, indicating a weakening effect of promotional activities and subsidies[7] - Movie attendance and box office revenues have significantly decreased post-summer, indicating a drop in consumer interest[7] Investment - New special bonds issued reached CNY 3.08 trillion as of August 16, with a recent acceleration in issuance[20] - Real estate transaction volumes remain subdued, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a slight recovery but still down year-on-year[20] - Construction activity is marginally improving, with asphalt operating rates increasing and cement shipment rates recovering seasonally[20] Trade and Prices - Import and export volumes are showing divergence, with a 11.1% decline in imports from China to South Korea and a 4.3% drop in global exports[26] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased for seven consecutive weeks, reflecting a retreat from previous shipping surges due to tariff concerns[26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains flat overall, with industrial prices showing little change except for a notable 15% increase in lithium carbonate prices[44] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[47] - The US dollar index fell by 42 basis points, influenced by moderate inflation data from July, which strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September[47]

Group 1 - The total per capita expenditure on food, tobacco, and alcohol for residents nationwide in Q2 2025 reached 4355 yuan, reflecting a cumulative growth of 3.3% [1] - The per capita expenditure for urban residents on food, tobacco, and alcohol accumulated to 5215 yuan, with a cumulative growth of 2.5% [1] - The per capita expenditure for rural residents on food, tobacco, and alcohol amounted to 3138 yuan, showing a cumulative growth of 4.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with exports increasing by 7.3% and imports decreasing by 1.6% [5]. Trade Performance - Total goods trade value for July 2025 was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan (up 8%) and imports at 1.6 trillion yuan (up 4.8%) [5]. - General trade and processing trade both saw increases, with general trade at 16.44 trillion yuan (up 2.1%) and processing trade at 4.6 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) [5][6]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan (up 9.4%), followed by the EU at 3.35 trillion yuan (up 3.9%) and the US at 2.42 trillion yuan (down 11.1%) [5][6]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly with a total trade value of 14.68 trillion yuan (up 7.4%), accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [6]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 7.46 trillion yuan (up 2.6%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline to 3.49 trillion yuan (down 8.8%) [6]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of exports, totaling 9.18 trillion yuan (up 9.3%), with notable growth in integrated circuits (up 21.8%) and automobiles (up 10.9%) [6]. - Labor-intensive products saw a slight decline in exports, totaling 2.41 trillion yuan (down 0.8%) [6]. Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports at 6.97 million tons (down 2.3%) and crude oil at 3.27 million tons (up 2.8%) [7]. - Imports of mechanical and electrical products increased to 4.09 trillion yuan (up 5.8%) [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that in July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Heilongjiang Province remained flat year-on-year, with industrial prices rising by 0.8%, service prices by 0.3%, while food and energy prices decreased by 2.4% and 3.7% respectively [1][2] - In July, the price changes in Heilongjiang Province showed a "five increases and three decreases" trend across eight major categories of goods and services, with other goods and services prices rising by 8.4% due to high international precious metal prices, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the overall CPI [1] - The transportation and communication category experienced the largest decline, with prices dropping by 3.0%, which pulled down the overall CPI by about 0.41 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise, reaching a year-high increase of 1.0% in July, contributing approximately 0.76 percentage points to the overall CPI [1][3] - Food and energy prices both showed a downward trend, with food prices decreasing by 2.4% and energy prices by 3.7%, collectively pulling down the overall CPI by about 0.77 percentage points [1] - In comparison to other provinces, Heilongjiang's CPI change was consistent with the national average of 0.0%, ranking it 8th among 31 provinces, with the highest increase in Anhui Province at 0.4% and the lowest in Guangxi at a decrease of 0.7% [2]

Consumption Trends - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes have increased, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment, with year-on-year comparisons turning from negative to positive[6] - Tourism and movie attendance have seen a resurgence, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 5.6% month-on-month, indicating strong demand[6] - Textile and apparel sectors are experiencing a seasonal downturn, with sales volumes declining compared to previous weeks[6] Investment Insights - As of August 9, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.84 trillion, with a slowdown in issuance noted in the first week of August[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities have shown a month-on-month decline, with new home sales still in negative growth territory, although the rate of decline has slightly narrowed[17] - Construction progress remains slow, with asphalt construction rates falling and cement shipment rates decreasing year-on-year[17] Trade and Export Dynamics - External demand is weakening, as evidenced by the July Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US dropping to 49.8%, indicating contraction[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, reflecting a broader trend of declining shipping costs[21] Production and Inventory Changes - The steel industry has shown marginal improvements in production rates, with rebar and wire rod output increasing[31] - Overall inventory trends indicate a focus on destocking, particularly in the cement and asphalt sectors, while steel inventories are rising due to increased production[42] Price Movements - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a marginal decline, with most categories experiencing price drops except for seasonal increases in vegetable prices[44] - Producer Price Index (PPI) has also decreased, with industrial prices falling across most categories, particularly in construction materials[44] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 1.7 basis points to 1.69%, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy[48] - The US dollar index has fallen by 42 basis points, contributing to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, from 7.21 to 7.18[48]