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巴菲特最后一次股东大会,都谈了什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 18:50
Core Insights - The 2025 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting marked a significant moment as it may be the last attended by Warren Buffett, who has led the company for 60 years, with nearly 20,000 attendees present [1][4] Group 1: Economic Concerns - Buffett criticized the U.S. tariff policies, labeling them as "acts of war," and highlighted their role as a major variable in the global economy [3] - The U.S. GDP fell by 0.3% in Q1 2025, a stark contrast to the 2.4% growth in Q4 2024, which Buffett attributed to companies rushing to import goods before tariff increases [6] - Berkshire's operating income also declined by 14% in Q1, reflecting the uncertainty caused by tariffs affecting both businesses and consumers [6] Group 2: Market Perspective - Buffett compared current market fluctuations to historical events, stating that the current situation is not as severe as the Great Depression, where the Dow Jones fell from 240 to 41 points [6] - He emphasized the importance of controlling emotions in investing, suggesting that investors need to adapt to market realities rather than expecting the market to cater to their feelings [6] Group 3: Cash Reserves and Investment Strategy - By the end of 2024, Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record $334.2 billion, which has now increased to $347 billion, indicating a cautious approach to current market conditions [7] - Buffett has sold over $134 billion in stocks over the past 10 quarters, primarily from Apple and Bank of America, reflecting a strategy to maintain liquidity amid economic uncertainty [9] - He has increased investments in Japan's five major trading companies, holding a 9.8% stake, indicating a shift towards international diversification [11] Group 4: Views on AI - Buffett expressed caution regarding AI, acknowledging its potential risks in cybersecurity and ethical responsibilities, while emphasizing the need for thorough understanding before investing in tech companies [15] - Berkshire's board rejected a shareholder proposal on AI, with Buffett focusing on long-term value rather than short-term trends [15] - The company is prepared to invest in AI opportunities when they arise, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus under future leadership [19] Group 5: Key Takeaways from the Meeting - Buffett shared several strategic insights for businesses, including maintaining financial buffers, focusing on core operations, and being cautious in resource allocation [22] - He highlighted the importance of marketing and adapting to changing market conditions while exploring international growth opportunities [22] - Buffett concluded with a reminder about the importance of continuous learning and adaptation in business [24]
国联安基金杨岳斌:从伯克希尔学习到资产配置理念
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 15:26
Core Insights - The Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting is a focal point for global investors, marking its 60th anniversary this year [3] - The discussion emphasizes the importance of capital allocation and value investment principles, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence [4][6] - The concept of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) is highlighted as increasingly relevant, but it should not overshadow shareholder interests [9][20] Group 1: Value Investment Philosophy - Value investment is rooted in a framework established by Benjamin Graham, focusing on cash flow discounting over a company's lifecycle [4][6] - The investment philosophy remains unchanged even with the rise of artificial intelligence and ESG considerations, emphasizing logical consistency [5][6] - Four filters are proposed for evaluating investments: business quality, competitive advantage, management effectiveness, and cash flow valuation [6][8] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence and Market Uncertainty - The artificial intelligence sector is viewed as uncertain, with difficulty in identifying future winners due to rapid changes and new entrants [7][8] - The current phase of AI development is seen as a "0 to 1" stage, where significant observation is required before making investment decisions [8] - The potential disruption caused by AI technologies necessitates careful monitoring of existing investments [8] Group 3: Capital Allocation Strategies - Effective capital allocation is crucial for maximizing shareholder value, with a preference for reinvestment over dividends unless no viable projects are available [4][12] - Companies should prioritize existing projects or consider share buybacks and dividends when no good investment opportunities exist [12][14] - The importance of aligning management incentives with shareholder interests is emphasized, particularly in state-owned enterprises [15][16] Group 4: ESG Considerations - ESG principles are recognized as important but should not compromise shareholder value; a balance must be struck [9][20] - Companies should ensure that their ESG efforts do not detract from their primary obligation to shareholders [9][20] - The integration of ESG factors into investment analysis is encouraged, provided it aligns with the company's financial health and shareholder interests [20] Group 5: Market Conditions and Investment Risks - The current low interest rate environment in China presents opportunities for investments that exceed the risk-adjusted returns of government bonds [19][20] - Investors should be cautious of "value traps," where high dividends may not reflect the underlying business's health [17][18] - The potential for foreign capital inflow into emerging markets, including China, is contingent on maintaining favorable economic conditions and addressing geopolitical risks [19][20]
施宏俊:投资应把眼光放长远 不要只看眼前的波折
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 14:10
专题:巴菲特2025年股东大会重磅来袭 5月3日,全球投资者关注的伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会在内布拉斯加州小城奥马哈召开,今年是巴菲特股 东大会60年,新浪财经携手首席合作伙伴青花汾酒带您直击股东大会盛况。 在股东大会现场,新浪财经对话芒格书院创始人施宏俊,他希望投资人要能更乐观地看待中国的未来, 把眼光放得更远,无论是对科技、人才,还是对公司的企业文化,都看得更远点,而不要只看眼前的波 折。"就像巴菲特、芒格所说,投资要有耐心,不能太急躁,要耐心等待好公司成长。"(新浪财经北美 站站长 康路 摄像 新浪财经特约吴大中 实习编辑 胡家悦 发自奥马哈 北京) 以下是采访实录: 新浪财经:施总您好,非常荣幸能在奥马哈请您来接受我们的采访。我们首先知道您之前出了一本专门 关于查理·芒格的书,是吗? 施宏俊:是的。 新浪财经:可不可以跟我们讲一讲查理·芒格的思想在现在这个 AI 时代到底是不是还适用? 就像段永平说的,投资很简单,但是很难,比如 "做对的事,把事情做对",要保持初心,做投资就像 做企业一样。但真正做起来,哪怕去 "抄作业" 都很难。 为什么呢?其实底层思维很简单,但是真正去研究公司的时候,其实还是蛮复杂的 ...
巴菲特接班人首次披露投资密码!3条颠覆性策略曝光!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 10:44
94岁的巴菲特在奥马哈CHI会议中心落下第60次股东大会的帷幕,用3477亿美元现金储备、创纪录的日本投资回报率和对贸易保护主义的犀利批判,为价值 投资时代画下句点,却为全球资本棋局按下破折号。 这场被誉为"资本家伍德斯托克"的盛会吸引了全球近4万名投资者,但空气中弥漫着一丝告别的意味:巴菲特正式宣布将于年底卸任CEO,交棒给副董事长 格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)。这一决定不仅标志着一个时代的结束,更折射出伯克希尔面对全球经济变局的战略调整。 一、权力交接:从个人魅力到制度传承 巴菲特在大会尾声宣布:"格雷格将在年底成为首席执行官,我仍会留在公司提供帮助,但最终决定权属于他。" 这一表态看似突然,实则早有伏笔。自 2021年确定阿贝尔为接班人以来,巴菲特逐步将非保险业务管理权移交,而此次正式交棒标志着伯克希尔从"个人英雄"向"制度化治理"的转型。 阿贝尔的接班并非简单复制巴菲特模式。 作为能源业务负责人,他主导了伯克希尔能源(BHE)的可再生能源转型,2024年该板块营收增长27%,展现出与传统投资截然不同的实业运营能力。 巴菲特评价:"格雷格的工作态度远比我投入,效果也更好。" 这种务实风格或将推动 ...
慢牛行情即将开启?5月4日,深夜的三大重要消息持续发酵!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 10:12
一、证监会突然调整休市安排,五一节假期从5月1日(周四)至5月5日(周一)放假! 村里最近可真是下了狠手,对那些市场上的"坏家伙"清理得飞快,退市新规一出,今年退市的公司数量估计要创新高了。过去一年,被立案调查的公司都超 过150家了,4月份被ST的也有110多家。这股市里"割韭菜"的事儿,可真是让人头疼。 所以啊,在市场上,咱们对那些有问题的公司,还是得多留个心眼。最近A股可热闹了,量化交易做空的事儿被叫停,这可把市场给炸开了锅。这一记重 拳,直接戳中了市场的"痛点",无数股民都在盯着这场关键的变局。要是现在暂停量化做空,等市场信心恢复了,说不定马上就能突破之前的高点,开启一 场稳稳的慢牛行情呢。你觉得呢? 三、通过营收调解即可实现戴摘帽的st,我们可以统称为假st。 一些营收在3亿左右的上市公司往往可以通过经销商的配合来实现保壳。比如,一个公司年营收约2.8-2.9亿(创业板1亿左)且亏损,从长期来看,其大概率 是不符合上市规则的。 但在符合会计要求的情况下,适当的调动经销商的积极性,就可以实现保壳的目的。比如,适当的调整营销策略,将24年最后几个月份的营收延迟安排在25 年,或者在25年提前实现26年前 ...
国联安基金杨岳斌:四重过滤锁定长期复利
news flash· 2025-05-04 07:21
智通财经5月4日电,由兴证全球基金、智通财经、腾讯新闻共同主办的"投资·可为|2025年度中国投资人 峰会"奥马哈场正在进行中。圆桌讨论中,国联安基金权益投资部基金经理、价值投资组负责人杨岳斌 系统阐释价值投资方法论。他提出"四重过滤"框架:好生意、护城河、代理人问题与内在价值。针对市 场误区,他澄清"成长与价值并非对立",真正价值源于持续现金流及稳定增长潜力,需警惕伪成长陷 阱。杨岳斌指出,当前中国低利率环境下,若精准评估企业全生命周期现金流,高确定性投资可超越国 债收益。他呼吁投资者深耕能力圈,以清单式思维抵御市场波动,"看清内在价值,方能利用市场而非 被其左右"。(智通财经记者 吴雨其) 国联安基金杨岳斌:四重过滤锁定长期复利 ...
喜马拉雅资本副董事长常劲:投资要到“到鱼多的地方钓鱼”
news flash· 2025-05-04 07:21
智通财经5月4日电,由兴证全球基金、智通财经、腾讯新闻共同主办的"投资·可为|2025年度中国投资人 峰会"奥马哈场正在进行中。圆桌讨论中,喜马拉雅资本副董事长常劲认为,巴菲特的传承安排标志着 新时代的开启,伯克希尔通过复利力量与长期股东心态成就今日规模,其持有巨额现金既为应对重大机 会,也为保障系统性风险下的资本韧性。谈及全球机遇,常劲强调"到鱼多的地方钓鱼",寻找具备持续 竞争优势、能创造长期现金流的优质企业,并认为经济成长是复利的基础。对于中国市场,他建议投资 者专注微观,以理性屏蔽短期情绪,支持优秀企业。常劲总结:"价值投资是伟大的事业,我们扮演良 性力量,助力企业成长。"(智通财经记者 吴雨其) 喜马拉雅资本副董事长常劲:投资要到"到鱼多的地方钓鱼" ...
股神学不来!巴菲特股东大会到底给了散户哪些实用投资启示?
格隆汇APP· 2025-05-04 05:58
就在昨天,投资界的年度盛会——伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会在奥马哈盛大召开,北京时间3日周六晚9点进入大会备受关注的股东问答环节。股 神巴菲特再次全程参与,特携其CEO接班人-伯克希尔非保险业务的负责人阿贝尔,以及保险业务负责人贾恩一同亮并共同回答股东提问。 年年巴菲特股东大会年年学,但还是不会。股神的金玉良言多多,也确实能受益颇多,但普通投资人很多条件跟大佬千差万别,不止是投资水 平或投资理念,比如伯克希尔源源不断的资金来源就是让全世界投资人都望尘莫及,同时伯克希尔的优秀团队和丰富投资工具也是绝大多数普 通投资人难以启及的(比如其可以在日本当地发债用来购买日本股票)。这些散户往往都不具备,同时也很难学会和掌握。 那么这届巴菲特股东大会到底带给了普通投资者人哪些实用的市场投资机会启示呢?我们就结合AI统计的本届大会高频词语具体给大家来交流 几点。 首先,我们简单罗列一下AI统计这次股东大会问答环节中超过4次以上的高频词语排序如下: 伯克希尔 - 58次,巴菲特 - 54次,美国 - 32次,投资 - 28次,公司 - 25次,贾因 - 18次,阿贝尔 - 18次,美元 - 17次,保险 - 15 次,市场 - 14 ...
巴菲特重磅发声!股东大会十大看点一览!
天天基金网· 2025-05-04 05:07
巴菲特高度评价了阿贝尔的能力,称他的管理风格比自己更为积极主动,也更适合如今庞大的伯克希尔 集团。他表示:"格雷格的工作态度远比我投入得多,效果也更好。说实话,我过去不太想做太多管理 上的工作,但伯克希尔本身就是一家优秀的公司,让我能够'偷懒'。" 美国当地时间2025年5月3日,被誉为"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会在"股神"沃伦·巴菲 特的老家美国内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行。备受瞩目的问答环节中,巴菲特和其接班人格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel),以及保险业务主管阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)与数万余名参会股东,面对面交流。 在今年四个半小时的问答环节尾声,94岁高龄的巴菲特正式宣布了退休计划,他将提请董事会批准格雷 格·阿贝尔在年底接过CEO的职位。此外,对于贸易政策、巨额现金储备、对美国经济的看法等全球投 资者关注的热点,巴菲特也一一作出回应。以下是上证报记者为您梳理此次股东大会中的十大精彩看 点。 谈退休计划:将在今年年底正式交棒 在今年的股东大会上,现年94岁的沃伦·巴菲特正式宣布,他计划在今年年底交棒,由现任副董事长格 雷格·阿贝尔接任首席执行官。虽然早在2021年已确定继任人选 ...
全文干货!九方智投剖析2025巴菲特股东大会十大看点
Core Viewpoint - The annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting highlighted Warren Buffett's investment philosophy and insights on various market conditions and strategies. Group 1: Trade and Market Insights - Buffett emphasized that the U.S. should engage in trade with other countries rather than using tariffs as a weapon, calling it a significant mistake that disrupts global markets [3] - He noted that good investment opportunities do not arise every day, indicating that the high cash reserves of Berkshire Hathaway are not a sign of inaction but a cautious approach to investing [4] - Buffett compared the stock market favorably to real estate, stating that there are more opportunities in the securities market than in real estate [5] Group 2: Investment Strategy and AI - Buffett stated that he will not focus all investments around AI, suggesting that sometimes not investing can be more profitable than making heavy investments [6] - He reassured that recent declines in the U.S. stock market are not significant compared to historical downturns, indicating a long-term perspective on market fluctuations [6][7] - He advised that rational judgment is crucial during market volatility, and that fear should not dictate investment decisions [7][8] Group 3: Personal Insights and Future Plans - Buffett expressed his continued passion for work, stating that enjoyment in business is more important than money [9] - He encouraged young investors to not expect every decision to be correct and to learn from wise individuals [9] - Regarding Japan, Buffett confirmed that he will not sell any Japanese stocks in the next ten years, expressing a desire to have invested more in the market [10] - He announced plans to retire by the end of the year, recommending Greg Abel as his successor [10]