Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price**: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, leading to unprecedented price increases and severe liquidity issues in London [3][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - Spot silver prices have surpassed $53 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [1]. - Spot gold has also risen to $4,150 per ounce, marking a record high [2]. - London spot silver prices have increased by 0.4%, hitting $52.5868 per ounce, exceeding the previous record set in 1980 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A liquidity crisis in the London silver market has resulted in a rush to acquire silver globally, driven by strong safe-haven demand, surging Indian purchases, and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs [6][10][12]. - The premium for London spot prices over New York futures reached $3, prompting traders to take extreme measures, such as chartering transatlantic flights for silver transport [6]. - The one-month leasing rate for silver in London has surged above 30%, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% annualized [8]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Issues - The available silver inventory in London has plummeted by 75% since mid-2019, from approximately 850 million ounces to around 200 million ounces [10]. - The lack of liquidity is exacerbated by banks' reluctance to quote prices, leading to wide bid-ask spreads [10]. Group 4: Demand Factors - Investors are flocking to silver and gold as safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties, including U.S. debt risks and currency devaluation [10]. - A recent unexpected surge in demand from India has further strained already tight inventories in London [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts are divided on the future of silver prices; Bank of America has raised its 2026 silver price target from $44 to $65 per ounce due to ongoing supply shortages and fiscal deficits [14]. - Goldman Sachs warns that the current price surge is primarily driven by physical tightness in the London market, predicting that this situation may ease in the coming weeks but could lead to extreme volatility [14].

黄金/美元技术面概述 周二亚洲时段，金价延续近期创纪录的涨势，并在基本面支撑下有望进一步上涨。在美国政府关门引发经济不确定性的背景下，中美贸易紧张局势再度升 温，持续推动避险资金流向黄金。 事实上，交易员们正在消化美联储今年将再次两次降息的可能性。前景未能帮助美元（USD）利用隔夜涨幅，这反过来又支持了大宗商品延续既定上涨趋势 的理由。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国关税的立场转变，仍然支撑着乐观的市场情绪。然而，这并未削弱围绕黄金的潜在强劲看涨情绪，证实 了积极的前景。 全球避险情绪和美联储降息预期推动黄金多头保持控制 由于看不到任何解决方案，围绕如何重启美国政府的僵局将持续到第三周，民主党和共和党继续互相指责始于10月1日的停摆。参议院将于周二复会，预计 将再次就拨款计划进行投票，该计划已七次未达到所需的60票门槛。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五再次引发贸易紧张局势，威胁自11月1日起对所有中国商品征收100%的关税，以报复中国加强稀土出口限制。这标志着全球两 大经济体之间的贸易战再次升级，并继续利好避险资产黄金。 特朗普周日软化了立场，并在TruthSocial网站上发文称，美国不希望伤害中国。特朗 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices surged past $4,100 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,116.77, closing at $4,106.48, an increase of 2.2% [1] - Silver also set a new record, peaking at $52.12 and closing at $51.82, up 3.1% [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for gold and silver reached 80 and 83 respectively, indicating an overbought market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. major indices rebounded significantly after a sell-off, driven by a softening tone from President Trump regarding trade with China [3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.34% to 6,691.25, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.55% to 46,311 points [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined as investors sought safe-haven assets amid expectations of potential Fed easing [6] Group 3: Commodity Performance - WTI crude oil prices rose approximately 1.3% due to improved market sentiment from easing trade tensions [6] - Gold futures soared to a historical high, supported by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts [6] - The FTSE 100 index in the UK saw a slight increase, buoyed by global sentiment following the U.S. softening stance on China [6]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has reached a milestone with gold prices surpassing $4,130 per ounce and silver prices hitting $52.50 per ounce, driven by multiple favorable factors and significant market interest [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have increased nearly 60% this year, successfully breaking the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce [4]. - Silver prices have also seen remarkable performance, with a daily increase of 6.8%, closing at $50.13 per ounce, and surpassing the $52 mark in the spot market [10]. Group 2: Driving Factors - **Global Risk Aversion**: Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The global debt has reached a historic high of $337.7 trillion, further enhancing gold's status as a reserve asset [6][7]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The market anticipates a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, with a 94.6% probability of rate cuts in October. This expectation has lowered the holding costs of gold, making it more attractive [8]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Central banks are projected to purchase 850 tons of gold in 2025, with China increasing its reserves to 2,300 tons. The active participation of institutional investors has created a positive feedback loop in the market [9]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - Silver's price surge is attributed not only to safe-haven demand but also to structural growth in industrial applications such as electric vehicles and solar panels. This unique supply-demand dynamic supports silver prices [10].

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices reached historic highs on October 14, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions, overshadowing the impact of the ceasefire plans between Hamas and Israel [1][2] - Spot gold surged 2.9% to a record $4095 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 56.6%, a rare performance since the 1970s oil crisis [2] - Other precious metals also saw significant gains, with platinum rising 1.9% to over $1665 per ounce, and palladium increasing 1.0% to a two-year high of $1469 per ounce [2] Group 2 - The current surge in gold and silver prices reflects a strong demand for safe-haven assets and may indicate a phase of restructuring in the global asset valuation system [3] - Technical indicators show that gold and silver are in overbought territory, with relative strength indices (RSI) at 80 and 83 respectively [3] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at $4050 and $4200, while silver's resistance is at $52.50 and support at $49 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant surge in silver prices, with spot silver reaching a high of $51.69 per ounce, marking an increase of over 70% this year, outpacing gold's 50% rise [1][3] - Silver experienced a sharp increase in the London market, nearing $52 per ounce, with a peak rise of 3.1%, while gold surpassed $4,070 per ounce, continuing its record-breaking trend for eight consecutive weeks [3][4] - Concerns over liquidity in the London market have intensified, pushing silver closer to its record high of $52.50 per ounce set in 1980, which was based on now-defunct Chicago futures contracts [3][4] Group 2 - The borrowing rate for silver in the London market surged to over 30% for one-month terms, significantly increasing costs for those attempting to extend short positions [4] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that the silver market has lower liquidity, approximately one-ninth the size of the gold market, which amplifies price volatility [4] - The four major precious metals have seen price increases ranging from 55% to 80% this year, driven by central bank purchases, rising ETF holdings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has been rising significantly, with domestic gold jewelry brands exceeding 1210 RMB per gram, marking an increase of over 130 RMB per gram in the past month [1]. Price Movements - On October 14, 2023, the price of gold jewelry from Chow Tai Fook rose from 1190 RMB per gram to 1215 RMB per gram, an increase of 25 RMB in one day [1]. - The price of gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang increased from 1188 RMB per gram to 1213 RMB per gram [1]. - Lao Miao Gold's price for gold jewelry reached 1218 RMB per gram [3]. Market Performance - The spot gold price reached a new high of 4140 USD per ounce on October 14, 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 57% [3]. - The A-share precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, 2023, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit [6]. - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to strong safe-haven demand, renewed tariff risks, and ongoing expectations for monetary easing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery before and after the holiday, driven by increased risk aversion leading to a decline in interest rates [1] Group 1: Market Performance - During the six working days from September 28 to September 30 and October 9 to October 11, bond market sentiment improved, with yields declining for several consecutive days [1] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by over 5 basis points, with the most significant drops occurring on September 30 and October 11 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in yields on September 30 was influenced by rumors of the central bank restarting government bond trading [1] - On October 11, the market's risk aversion was significantly boosted by renewed threats from the U.S. to impose additional tariffs [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market will continue to face various disturbances from the equity market and policy changes in the short term [1] - The adjustment phase that has persisted since July has lasted for three months, and while the downward trend has slowed, further catalysts are needed to break the current oscillation pattern in interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in international precious metal futures, particularly gold and silver, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions, rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks that boost safe-haven demand [1][3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.24% to $4,130 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce, indicating a strong market reaction to current economic uncertainties [1] - The Financial Times discusses that the surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000, reflects disappointment in the US dollar and concerns over global order uncertainty, positioning gold as a measure of confidence in future stability since the decoupling from the dollar in 1971 [1] Group 2 - The article from Japan's 47 News attributes the rise in gold prices to increased buying driven by Western investors through ETFs and derivatives, contrasting with the previously active Chinese retail investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] - Concerns regarding the US economy are identified as a primary motivation for investment in gold, with different age demographics having varying strategies; retirees may view gold as a hedge against downturns, while younger investors might pursue more aggressive investment strategies [3]