2025年以来，中国资产所面临的宏观叙事发生了重大的变化，据富国星投顾整理主要集中在五大宏观方面：第一，中美战 略相持+地方债务缓解，宏观经济的尾部风险释放；第二，中国经济新旧动能转换初见成效，全球投资者开始重新认知中国 科技和企业的竞争力；第三，反内卷政策的引领下，国内通缩叙事减弱；第四，美元走弱与全球流动性充裕，资金出现再 平衡行为；第五，政策对于中国资本市场重视度提升，市场生态逐渐优化。 在大类资产的盛宴中，基金迎来收获季，仓位成为收益的核心胜负手。据富国星投顾整理可重点从三个方面进行观察。 第一，大类资产方面，黄金一骑绝尘领跑各大类资产，受美元走弱、地缘风险升级、央行购金需求提升等因素影响，黄金 资产年内涨幅可观； 第二，权益资产方面，主动权益基金相较核心股票指数具备更优性价比，权益仓位是收益差异的重要因素； 主动权益基金，今年打了一场漂亮的"翻身仗"。WIND数据显示，偏股混合型基金指数今年以来的收益已经达到了29%，相 对于沪深300的超额达14.2%，富国星投顾分析认为这展现了基金经理主动选股、创造Alpha的专业能力，也证明了在结构性 行情中深度研究依然能带来超额回报。但值得注意的是，主动权益 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese financial market, particularly focusing on monetary and fiscal policies, the bond market, the A-share market, and specific sectors such as AI, renewable energy, non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and commercial aerospace. Key Points and Arguments Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy remains accommodative, but the likelihood of further easing in 2026 is low; fiscal policy is actively supportive, focusing on livelihood, consumption, technological innovation, and local government debt resolution, with a projected fiscal deficit exceeding 6 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields rising by 6.1 BP, 20.1 BP, and 39.6 BP respectively since the second half of the year, driven by reduced expectations for monetary easing, inflation recovery, and increased supply pressure [3] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, supported by a strong RMB exchange rate and resilient domestic economic fundamentals; the market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase without rapid increases or significant declines [4][5] Cross-Year Market Sentiment - The core of the cross-year market sentiment is the expectation of a spring rally in 2026, with recommendations to position for potential market movements in December [6] Sector Focus for 2026 - Key sectors to watch include AI (especially CPO), renewable energy (storage), non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and non-ferrous chemicals; opportunities also exist in Hong Kong's internet sector and commercial aerospace [7][13] Specific Company Insights - **Sungrow Power Supply**: The fundamentals remain solid despite recent price drops; price increases in the storage supply chain are demand-driven and do not pose a significant risk [8][9] - **HiSilicon**: Facing significant unlocking pressure on January 27, which may create short-term challenges; however, opportunities in the renewable energy sector post-unlocking in February are noted [9] AI Industry Prospects - The AI sector, particularly in CPO, shows a clear and high certainty outlook; recent market fluctuations due to asset restructuring in specific companies do not significantly impact the overall AI industry [10] Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - Focus on copper and tin, with additional attention to silver, nickel, and rare metals, which present substantial investment opportunities in the near term [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by regulatory measures that enhance capital space and leverage limits for quality institutions, potentially increasing ROE [12] Commercial Aerospace Investment - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a significant investment theme for 2026, with ongoing attention and optimism regarding its growth potential [13] Additional Important Insights - The RMB's appreciation historically supports an upward shift in A-share valuations, indicating a positive correlation between currency strength and market performance [4] - The overall sentiment suggests a strategic focus on sectors with high growth potential and favorable market conditions as the year-end approaches [13]

Macro - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the third cut in 2025, with expectations of only one more cut in 2026 [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices saw a short-term surge, and spot gold prices increased by $20 [1] Industry - Micron's NAND prices surged nearly 50% in a single month, with storage module manufacturers indicating that NAND shortages will become widespread after Q2 next year [2] - The rapid increase in NAND prices is attributed to unprecedented AI demand consuming storage chip capacity, potentially leading to a new round of price hikes in consumer electronics [2] - There are rumors of interest subsidy policies in the real estate sector, with Vanke's stock hitting the limit up, and several cities already implementing such policies [4] - If the interest subsidy policy is enacted, it could effectively reduce loan pressure for homebuyers and stimulate potential housing demand [4] Company - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye announced mid-term dividend distributions totaling approximately 40 billion yuan, with Moutai distributing on December 19 and Wuliangye on December 18 [3] - The high dividends from leading liquor companies reflect their robust financial health and commitment to rewarding investors, although high dividends should be considered alongside other investment value metrics [3]

Group 1 - As of December 10, 2023, 22 A-share listed companies have announced their performance forecasts for 2025, with 13 companies expecting positive results, accounting for 59.09% [1] - The semiconductor, consumer electronics, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, and machinery equipment sectors are showing strong performance among the listed companies [1] - Companies with a net profit increase of over 10% are 9, while 5 companies expect an increase of over 20%, with the top three being Bai'ao Saitou, Hongyuan Co., and Luxshare Precision, expecting increases of 303.57%, 30.30%, and 28.59% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - 12 companies are forecasting annual net profits exceeding 100 million yuan, with 5 companies exceeding 500 million yuan, and 3 companies exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, led by Luxshare Precision with a projected net profit of 17.186 billion yuan [2] - Bai'ao Saitou anticipates a net profit of approximately 135.37 million yuan for 2025, representing a 303.57% increase from the previous year, driven by overseas market expansion and strong R&D capabilities [2] Group 3 - As the year-end approaches, the market is expected to focus on annual report performance, with recommendations to pay attention to high-performing leading companies [3] - Investors are advised to explore sectors such as banking, non-bank finance, state-owned enterprise reform, and consumption while avoiding companies with poor or no performance [3] - High-growth companies in the annual report season are likely to attract market interest, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy [3]

Group 1 - The domestic equity market indices generally rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.86%. Cycle-themed funds outperformed, while consumer and pharmaceutical-themed funds experienced net value adjustments. A total of 39 new funds were established, with a combined issuance of 36.589 billion units. Stock ETFs saw a slight inflow of funds, primarily increasing positions in mid-cap and TMT-themed ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs experienced significant inflows. The active equity fund positions showed a downward trend [5]. - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has risen for a consecutive month, and the price of electrolytic cobalt has also increased for a month. The lithium price has reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton, and it is recommended to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium mining sector. Prices for various cobalt products have risen, and tungsten prices remain at a high level not seen since 2012. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is at a 19-month high [5]. - The new version of the medical insurance directory and the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory were released simultaneously. The success rate of negotiations for the basic medical insurance reached 88%, the highest in seven years, while the first commercial insurance directory included 19 drugs with a negotiation success rate of 79%. The expansion and quality improvement of the medical insurance directory are emphasized, with a pass rate of 41.48% for drugs outside the directory undergoing expert review, indicating a strict overall standard. The renewal rate for negotiated drugs within the directory is as high as 75% [5]. Group 2 - The investment value analysis of Laopu Gold highlights its successful penetration into the market through product design that incorporates classic cultural elements from both Eastern and Western traditions, appealing to younger consumers. The brand's positioning in high-end shopping districts enhances its luxurious image, and despite a limited number of stores, the output per store is significant. The online strategy accelerates the penetration of traditional gold products, attracting young customers with lower-priced items, which also supports long-term offline development [7]. - For Anjui Foods, the company continues to show positive operational trends in the fourth quarter. Although the intensity of price competition in the industry remains to be observed, feedback from distributors and market responses indicate a potential easing of price competition among frozen food companies since the third quarter, which may lead to improved profitability [7].

◎记者 徐蔚 12月10日，A股市场呈现指数分化的结构性走势。截至收盘，上证指数微跌0.23%，报3900.50点，险守 3900点整数关口；深证成指午后翻红，逆势上涨0.29%，报13316.42点；创业板指微跌0.02%，报 3209.00点。全市场成交额为1.79万亿元，较前一个交易日缩量1260亿元，超2400只个股上涨，板块轮动 特征显著。 中银证券研报表示：基本面承压叠加"十五五"规划建议表态偏向积极，未来地产优化政策落地的空间打 开。对未来地产行业的修复有一定信心。从地产标的来看，一方面，流动性安全、重仓高能级城市、产 品力突出的房企或更具备α属性；另一方面，在新消费时代下，提前布局新业态、新模式、新场景的商 业地产公司，有望率先走出重围。 此外，零售板块延续强势表现，永辉超市、中央商场、茂业商业等多只个股涨停。消息面上，全国零售 业创新发展大会12月9日至10日在北京举行。商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作 为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量 发展。 数据显示，"十四五"以来，零售业对促进消费和投资的贡献巨大。2024年 ...

中经记者 郭婧婷 北京报道 12月9日，由《中国经营报》主办的"2025中国企业竞争力年会"在京举行，在主题为"金融赋能实体经济 与新质生产力"圆桌论坛环节中，川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳基于川财证券的央企控股背 景与实践，系统阐述了在新时代背景下，金融机构如何优化资源配置、聚焦国家战略，以及资本市场在 培育新质生产力中的独特作用。 川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳 陈雳认为，在百年未有之大变局下，面对高度不确定的外部环境，我们更需练好内功，加快实现国产自 立与科技突破。资本市场也将大力做好"金融五篇大文章"，齐心聚力支持新质生产力，树立价值投资理 念、做好耐心资本，为"十五五"高质量发展和中国企业竞争力提升再添一把火。 立足国企禀赋 做好绿色金融特色发展 "川财证券股东有四大发电集团之一的中国华电，核心围绕着'双碳'目标，进一步保障能源供给安全的 同时，推动绿色低碳转型。"陈雳指出，在这一定位下，川财证券将绿色金融视为落实金融"五篇大文 章"的重要抓手。 "绿色金融与华电的产业方向高度契合，也是近年来资本市场最具活力的增长领域之一。"陈雳介绍，川 财证券依托股东产融协同平台，整合了租赁、信托、保 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical announced the exclusive global rights grant for its GLP-1 drugs, including YP05002, to Pfizer, marking a significant collaboration in the internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The initial payment for the transaction is set at $150 million, with potential milestone payments reaching up to $1.935 billion, leading to a total potential transaction value exceeding $2 billion [1]. - This deal is considered a top-tier transaction, reflecting the ongoing competitiveness in the GLP-1 drug market [1]. Group 2: Market Context - GLP-1 drugs mimic the hormone GLP-1, which helps control diabetes and promote weight loss, and are gaining traction among global pharmaceutical companies [2]. - Currently, four domestic GLP-1 drugs have been approved in China, with nearly 90 products in the research and development phase [2]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Fosun Pharmaceutical's decision to grant global rights to Pfizer may be a strategic move to avoid intense competition in the domestic GLP-1 market, preserving maximum value [2]. - Pfizer is actively enhancing its GLP-1 portfolio through acquisitions, including a recent $10 billion purchase of Metsera, indicating the importance of GLP-1 products in maintaining competitive advantage [2]. Group 4: Future Development - The GLP-1 drug involved in the transaction is currently in Phase I clinical trials, and both companies aim to leverage their strengths to accelerate global clinical development and commercialization [3]. - Fosun Pharmaceutical's chairman emphasized the collaboration as a milestone in the company's strategy for innovation and internationalization, aiming to address unmet clinical needs in obesity and metabolic diseases [3].

12.5亿美元首付款，60亿美元总交易额，三生制药与辉瑞的一纸协议，在今年5月点燃了资本市场的热 情，也映照出中国创新药的"DeepSeek时刻"。在本轮行情中，百济神州、百利天恒、诺诚健华等一批企 业凭借技术实力和出海策略脱颖而出，它们可以作为观察行业趋势的典型样本。它们是当下的典型，未 来却绝不是"全部"。 资本市场敏锐地嗅到了变化。今年以来，二级市场上创新药板块成为明星。港股创新药指数一度飙升逾 100%，A股创新药板块亦亮点频现。水涨船高之下，A股和港股千亿市值创新药企已达8家。 与此同时，港交所迎来药企扎堆申报，仅11月就有近10家创新药企递表，其中不乏多轮融资但仍未盈利 的创新药企。资本的热浪席卷着二级市场，而在这背后，中国创新药企正用实实在在的临床数据和商业 价值实现价值重估。 /二级市场狂欢/ 资本市场总是先知先觉。经历近四年的深度调整后，创新药在2025年迎来强势反弹。 东方财富显示，自4月9日阶段性探底后，港股创新药板块发起猛攻，截至11月19日收盘，港股创新药指 数累计涨幅达到110.75%，期间一度涨超100%。A股创新药板块同样大涨。4月9日至11月19日，A股创 新药板块累计上涨4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing volatility, with Hong Kong stocks continuing to adjust while A-share pharmaceutical stocks saw a slight rebound in the afternoon. The overall market indices for innovative drugs and biotechnology are mixed, indicating varied investor sentiment in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index both declined by 0.7% [1]. - The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index increased by 0.2%, while the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index rose by 0.3% [1]. - The CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index saw a gain of 0.4%, reflecting continued capital inflow into the sector [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) attracted a total of 140 million yuan in the previous two trading days, with an additional net subscription of nearly 10 million shares today [1]. Group 3: Policy Updates - The National Medical Insurance Drug List for 2025 and the first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug List (2025) will be released on December 7, marking the 8th adjustment since the establishment of the National Medical Insurance Bureau [1]. - A total of 114 new drugs will be added to the list, including 50 first-class innovative drugs, targeting key areas such as cancer, chronic diseases, mental health, rare diseases, and pediatric medications [1].