03 利率与流动性 利空不跌，进入趋势性上 涨阶段 贵金属周报 2025/09/27 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 周度行情回顾：内盘截至周五日盘收盘，沪金涨3.07%，报856.06 元/克，沪银涨6.63%，报10632.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.89%，报3789.80 美 元/盎司，COMEX银涨6.92%，报46.37 美元/盎司； ◆ 本周所公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，联储部分官员表态鹰派，但贵金属价格面对利空因素的反应相对有限：周四公布的美国二季度经济数据修 正值超预期，美国二季度实际GDP年化季度环比终值为3.8%，高于预期和前值的3.3%。美国二季度实际个人消费支出季度环比终值为2.5%，大幅 高于预期的1.7%和前值的1.6%。美国8月耐用品订单环比值为2.9%，大幅高于预期的-0.5%以及前值的-2 ...

（文章来源：中国新闻网） 分析人士认为，这一预期上扬在一定程度反映出通胀压力在英国经济中仍具持续性。事实上，英国8月 份的整体通胀水平已攀升至3.8%。英国央行预计通胀将在9月触顶至4.0%，并预测其回落至2%目标水平 可能要到2027年春季。 在此背景下，英国央行在本月暗示可能放缓未来降息步伐。央行指出，在通胀下行轨迹尚未确立之前， 其将谨慎评估进一步调整利率的节奏。(完) 中新网伦敦9月28日电 (记者欧阳开宇)机构调查显示，英国公众对未来五年至十年间的中长期通胀预期 有所上升，这一动向加剧了市场对英国央行货币政策路径的关注。 调查由花旗银行与民调机构YouGov联合进行，显示公众对五至十年期的通胀预期从8月的3.9%上升至9 月的4.1%，不过仍低于7月的4.2%和6月的4.3%水平。短期通胀预期则连续三个月维持在4.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent social media post by Trump, depicting a humorous take on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlights the ongoing tension between political influence and central bank independence, raising concerns about potential market reactions to perceived threats to this independence [2][5]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has publicly criticized Powell and the Federal Reserve multiple times, suggesting that the recent interest rate cuts are insufficient and labeling Powell as "Mr. Too Late" [2]. - The Supreme Court has reaffirmed that the President cannot dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman without just cause, indicating that Trump's threats may be more symbolic than actionable [2][3]. - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's personnel decisions, including efforts to remove board member Lisa Cook, could undermine the institution's independence [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Federal Reserve has led to increased market volatility, as seen during Trump's previous criticisms of Powell in 2018 [2]. - Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that an unusual dismissal of Powell could lead to a significant spike in 10-year Treasury yields, reflecting investor concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [2]. - Despite the current low volatility in bond markets, there are warnings that political noise could amplify risks, especially as the election approaches [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Independence - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's focus remains on policies that benefit the American people, regardless of political pressures [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining market confidence, as any perceived erosion of this independence could lead to increased long-term interest rates [5]. - The current situation serves as a reminder that in the age of social media, the perception of central bank independence is as important as its legal standing [5].

Group 1: Silver ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,361.84 tons of silver as of September 26, a decrease of 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, spot silver closed at $46.04 per ounce, marking a 1.95% increase, with intraday prices reaching a high of $46.62 and a low of $44.51 [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence, with the index dropping to 55.1 in September, a decrease of 3.1 points or approximately 5% from the previous month, and the lowest level since May [3] - The survey revealed that nearly 70% of American consumers expect inflation to exceed their income growth over the next year, a significant increase from less than 60% in September 2024 [3] - Approximately 65% of consumers anticipate a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 57% in July 2025 and 35% a year ago [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The survey highlighted that consumer sentiment is broadly weakening across various demographics, with the exception of consumers with substantial stock portfolios, who showed more resilience [4] - Although inflation expectations for the next 12 months have slightly decreased, they remain high, while long-term inflation expectations have increased [4] - Overall, concerns about inflation have eased since the spring, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [4]

住房与信贷方面，消费者预计未来12个月房价上涨3.4%，高于7月的3.3%。未来一年抵押贷款利率预期 维持在4.5%。同时，报告显示，认为过去一年信贷条件趋紧的家庭占比增加，预期未来12个月信贷条 件收紧的家庭占比也有所上升。 欧洲央行表示，消费者预期调查的下一期数据将于10月27日发布。 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 欧洲中央银行26日公布的数据显示，2025年8月，欧元区消费者对未来一年通胀的预期有所上升，而对 三年期的通胀预期保持不变。 调查显示，消费者对过去12个月的通胀感受中值维持在3.1%，已连续七个月保持稳定。未来12个月的 通胀预期中值从7月的2.6%升至2.8%；三年期预期维持在2.5%；五年期预期小幅升至2.2%，为2022年8 月以来最高水平。 在收入与消费方面，消费者未来12个月名义收入增长预期从0.9%升至1.1%；过去12个月名义支出增速 感受为5.0%，高于7月的4.7%。未来12个月的支出增长预期维持在3.3%。 经济与就业方面，消费者对未来12个月经济增长的预期维持在-1.2 ...

Core Points - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined for the second consecutive month, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 55.1 in September, a decrease of 3.1 points or approximately 5% from the previous month, and below market expectations of 55.4 [1][3] - This index level is the lowest since May of this year and represents a 21.4% decline compared to the same period last year [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of economic conditions, personal financial status, business environment, and consumer willingness to spend, published twice a month [3] - The survey indicates a widespread weakening of consumer sentiment across various demographics, including age, income, and education levels [3] - Consumers with significant stock holdings showed stable confidence, while those with little or no stock assets experienced a notable decline in confidence [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The current economic conditions index fell to 60.4, below the expected 61.2, marking the lowest level since May, with a month-over-month decline of 2.1% and a year-over-year decline of 4.6% [4] - The consumer expectations index dropped for the third consecutive month to 51.7, slightly below the expected 51.8, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 7.5% and a year-over-year drop of 30.5% [4] - Inflation expectations showed a slight decrease in the one-year outlook from 4.8% to 4.7%, while the long-term inflation expectation rose to 3.7%, still below the April high of 4.4% [4] Group 3: Small Business Sentiment - The small business owner confidence index also reflects a similar pessimistic sentiment, indicating pressure on both the consumer and small business sectors of the U.S. economy [5]

Group 1 - The core influence of non-farm payroll data on gold prices is significant, especially in the context of inflation and employment data in 2025, where strong non-farm data may lead to concerns about inflation and a stronger dollar, thus suppressing gold prices [3][4] - Non-farm payroll data serves as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation trends, with market expectations adjusting based on whether employment numbers exceed or fall short of forecasts [3][4] - For instance, in September 2025, if the actual non-farm employment number is below 180,000, gold prices may rise above $3,780 per ounce, while exceeding 220,000 could lead to a drop to $3,700 [3] Group 2 - Jinsheng Precious Metals provides three core supports for navigating the uncertainties of non-farm data impacts: real-time market updates, immediate analyst interpretations, and flexible trading settings [4] - The platform updates gold and silver prices in milliseconds following non-farm data releases, which is crucial for short-term investors to capitalize on price movements [4] - Analysts from Jinsheng Precious Metals offer insights within 30 minutes post-release, clarifying the implications of the data on inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policies [4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to align their strategies with the broader context of inflation and employment data, with conservative investors encouraged to view short-term volatility as an opportunity for long-term asset accumulation [5] - Aggressive investors may focus on capturing short-term gains in silver following non-farm data releases, but should practice strategies using simulated trading accounts [5] - The company emphasizes the importance of using compliant platforms and professional analyses to navigate the potential shifts in gold prices following each non-farm data release in 2025 [5]

经济与就业方面，消费者对未来12个月经济增长的预期维持在-1.2%。对未来一年失业率的预期从7月的 10.6%升至10.7%，与当前感受到的失业率10.1%接近，显示整体劳动力市场预期较为稳定。 住房与信贷方面，消费者预计未来12个月房价上涨3.4%，高于7月的3.3%。未来一年抵押贷款利率预期 维持在4.5%。同时，报告显示，认为过去一年信贷条件趋紧的家庭占比增加，预期未来12个月信贷条 件收紧的家庭占比也有所上升。 欧洲央行表示，消费者预期调查的下一期数据将于10月27日发布。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经法兰克福9月26日电（记者马悦然）欧洲中央银行26日公布的数据显示，2025年8月，欧元区消 费者对未来一年通胀的预期有所上升，而对三年期的通胀预期保持不变。 调查显示，消费者对过去12个月的通胀感受中值维持在3.1%，已连续七个月保持稳定。未来12个月的 通胀预期中值从7月的2.6%升至2.8%；三年期预期维持在2.5%；五年期预期小幅升至2.2%，为2022年8 月以来最高水平。 在收入与消费方面，消费者未来12个月名义收入增长预期从0.9%升至1.1%；过去12个月名义支出增速 感受为5.0% ...

美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reported an increase in consumer inflation expectations for the Eurozone in August, supporting the stance of "not further lowering interest rates" [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in July, while three-year inflation expectations remain unchanged and five-year expectations slightly increased to 2.2% [1][3] - The current inflation rate in the Eurozone is stable at the target level of 2%, with officials expressing satisfaction with the current interest rate levels [3] Group 2 - Some ECB officials are concerned that inflation may fall below the target in the next two years, while others are focused on the impact of increased defense spending [3] - ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that the bank has achieved its target and emphasized the need for patience and readiness for timely action [3] - The market anticipates an increase in the inflation rate to 2.3% this month [3] Group 3 - The ECB is closely monitoring food price trends, which are rising faster than other goods and services, with warnings that this could elevate overall inflation expectations [3] - The August survey revealed that consumer expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remain stable at -1.2% [4] - Consumer expectations for the unemployment rate increased from 10.6% to 10.7%, while nominal income growth expectations rose to 1.1% from 1.0% [4]