Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its economic forecasts, now expecting US GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, a downward adjustment of 0.2% from previous estimates [1] - The forecast for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.7%, up by 0.2% from earlier predictions [1] - Core PCE inflation expectations have also been raised to 3.1%, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from prior forecasts [1] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth forecast for 2025: 1.3% [1] - PCE inflation forecast: 2.7% [1] - Core PCE inflation forecast: 3.1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated slightly after a brief rise due to Trump's sanctions on Russia not including new measures to restrict energy exports. The market is waiting for the US CPI data today, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. Although the overall trend remains strong, the ratio of silver to gold continues to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. There is still support for silver prices [5]. - Since Trump took office, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, US bond yields rose across the board, the 10-year US bond yield increased by 2.40 basis points to 4.433%, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.11, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1722, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 4272 kilograms to 28857 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is neutral; the main net long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 79611 kilograms to 1223982 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish; the main net long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Things to Watch Today - 09:30: China's National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. - 10:00: China's Q2 GDP, January - June total retail sales of consumer goods, value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed - asset investment, national real - estate development investment, June urban survey unemployment rate. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025. - Time TBD: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will speak. - 14:45: Boston Fed President Collins (2025 FOMC voter) will speak. - 15:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for private entrepreneurs. - Time TBD: The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index. - Time TBD: OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report. - 20:30: US June CPI, July New York Fed manufacturing index; Canada's June CPI. - 21:15: Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted meeting. - Time TBD: US President Trump will attend the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit. - Time TBD: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will speak at the Mansion House Dinner [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, so gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position increased, and the long positions of the main players increased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position decreased, and the long positions of the main players decreased [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of potential trade tariffs and inflation expectations on gold prices, with a focus on upcoming U.S. CPI data and its implications for market sentiment [1][2]. Group 2 - The European Commission is prepared to impose additional tariffs on U.S. imports worth €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail, contributing to rising market risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. is expected to release June CPI data, with overall CPI projected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% and core CPI from 2.8% to 3%, influencing inflation expectations and market reactions [2]. - If the CPI data exceeds expectations, it may lead to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, putting further pressure on gold prices; conversely, lower-than-expected data could weaken the dollar and support a slight rebound in gold [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government has relaxed the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for new properties, leading to over 50% of buyers opting for immediate payment methods in new launches, with some projects seeing up to 90% using this method [1] - The total number of new mortgage applications for new properties is expected to reach approximately 6,500 this year, a significant increase of about 56% compared to last year's 4,186, potentially hitting a five-year high [1] - The existing property mortgage market is projected to see a slight increase to around 55,500 applications this year, up about 10% from last year's 50,500 [1] Group 2 - If interest rates decrease in the second half of the year, along with a slight recovery in property prices, banks are expected to maintain a positive stance on residential mortgage business, with an estimated 45,000 new residential mortgage applications this year, reflecting a nearly 15% increase from last year's 39,327 [2] - The number of mortgage refinancing applications is anticipated to decline slightly to around 7,100 this year, down about 5% from last year's 7,451, due to cautious bank valuations and limited incentives for homeowners to refinance [2] - The demand for mortgage insurance is expected to decrease significantly, with new mortgage insurance applications projected at around 6,500, a reduction of approximately 30% from last year's 9,337 [3] Group 3 - The increase in applications for 70% mortgages without insurance has risen to 31% of total applications in the first half of the year, compared to 15% in the same period last year, indicating a significant shift in borrowing behavior [3] - The outlook for the Hong Kong property market remains cautiously optimistic, dependent on external and local economic factors, with potential risks from the global economic environment [3]

Gold Market - Last week, gold saw a significant rebound with a maximum weekly increase of nearly 3%, indicating a positive trend [1] - The rise in gold prices is a direct response to Trump's tariff policies, which have heightened global trade risks and increased safe-haven demand [1] - Trump's deadline for reaching tariff agreements with various countries has been postponed to August 1, with strong resistance from EU leaders, suggesting potential backlash [1] - Although tariffs have temporarily boosted U.S. tariff revenues, they may lead to greater long-term issues, including a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, which has been shrinking for four consecutive months [1] - Analysts predict that Trump's tax cuts will increase the deficit by trillions, while tariffs may raise inflation expectations, potentially driving more funds into the gold market [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish continuation pattern, with prices above the moving average system and strong upward momentum [1] Oil Market - Last week, oil prices experienced a volatile upward trend, although the overall performance remained weak [2] - Seasonal demand has provided some short-term support for oil prices, with U.S. refinery utilization rates reaching 94.7% as of July 4, indicating increased processing to meet summer travel needs [2] - Despite short-term demand increases, the long-term outlook for oil prices remains challenged by a persistent oversupply, with global oil supply expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, while demand is only projected to grow by 700,000 barrels per day [2] - For next year, global oil demand growth is forecasted at 720,000 barrels per day, while supply growth is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day, indicating a continued oversupply issue [2] - Technically, oil has formed a bullish pattern, with prices above long-term moving averages and potential for new highs in the short term [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and increases, likely adjusting from previous gains [3] - The hourly chart indicates a converging pattern, suggesting the potential formation of a symmetrical triangle, with a likelihood of new highs in the short term [3] - Support is noted at the $5.45 level for copper prices [3]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices surged, reaching over 68,000, with a subsequent pullback but still maintaining a rise of over 3% [2] - Weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons, with a projected increase of 3.9% in July to 81,150 tons [4] - The market sentiment is primarily driven by emotional factors, with limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to potential short-selling opportunities as prices rise [4] Group 2: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose over 3%, breaking through 8,700, marking a three-month high [5] - The supply side saw a slight increase in operating furnaces, with a total of 232 furnaces operating at a rate of 29% [5] - Despite the positive sentiment, the fundamental outlook for industrial silicon remains cautious, with limited demand changes and expectations of constrained upward movement in prices [6] Group 3: Silver Market - Spot silver prices surpassed $39 per ounce, reaching the highest level since September 2011, with a daily increase of over 1.6% [7] - Geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and positive price expectations are driving silver prices upward, with projections suggesting silver could surpass gold in investment value by 2025 [9] - The market is currently influenced by rising tariff concerns and inflation expectations, providing strong support for precious metals, particularly silver [9]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlights a significant power struggle that reflects deep divisions within the U.S. regarding monetary policy and economic governance, potentially posing risks to the global financial system [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell centers on the costly renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which he labels as "severe mismanagement," indicating a broader political offensive against the Fed [3]. - The former president has called for an unprecedented 3 percentage point cut in interest rates, a move typically reserved for extreme economic crises, challenging the Fed's independence [3][4]. - Trump's actions suggest an attempt to undermine the Fed's autonomy by seeking a successor to Powell who would align more closely with presidential directives, threatening the institution's role as a stabilizer in the market [8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Powell's refusal to lower interest rates stems from concerns that Trump's trade policies could lead to soaring inflation, advocating for maintaining higher rates until economic conditions improve [4]. - The ongoing power struggle between the U.S. government and the central bank raises concerns about potential impacts on financial markets and economic expectations, with the possibility of increased volatility in asset prices and capital flows [6][8]. - Economists express worry that undermining the Fed's credibility could lead to significant fluctuations in interest rate expectations, further destabilizing the financial system and clouding the economic recovery [6][8]. Group 3: Institutional Integrity - The conflict underscores a fundamental challenge to the Fed's independence, which is crucial for avoiding politically motivated monetary policy errors and ensuring economic stability [3][4]. - Trump's push for a shadow leadership within the Fed disrupts the traditional continuity of policy-making, increasing uncertainty and potentially harming long-term economic health [8]. - The tension between the government and the central bank, particularly in the context of the U.S. as the world's largest economy, raises alarms about the broader implications for global financial stability and economic growth [8].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan may consider raising at least one inflation forecast in its upcoming policy meeting due to unexpected increases in rice and food prices [1][2] - The central bank is likely to adjust its key price forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% due to stronger food inflation and rising oil prices [1][2] - The yen briefly strengthened against the dollar following the news, while Japanese government bond futures fell [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 31, amid uncertainties from ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations and the upcoming Senate elections [2] - Living costs and rice prices have become critical issues ahead of the elections, with rice prices doubling compared to the previous year, marking the largest increase since 1971 [2] - The central bank believes there is no need for significant adjustments to the overall economic and inflation outlook, maintaining that price trends will align with its sustainable inflation target in the latter half of the three-year outlook period ending March 2028 [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's forecasts for core CPI and core-core CPI for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 are 2.2%, 1.7%, 1.9% and 2.3%, 1.8%, 2% respectively [4] - Officials acknowledge high uncertainty and plan to monitor the impact of US tariffs on upcoming data to determine the timing of future rate hikes [4] - The central bank's president, Ueda Kazuo, indicated that the effects of tariffs have not yet appeared in hard data, while inflation rates remain elevated, reaching a two-year high in May [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased trade uncertainties due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, alongside escalating geopolitical risks related to Russia and Ukraine, and diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Uncertainty and Tariffs - The Trump administration has announced significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, Canada, and Brazil, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%, effective August 1 [3]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of escalating trade tensions, gold prices typically rise, as seen in the current market response to these tariff announcements [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. Congress is advancing a bill imposing punitive tariffs of 500% on countries purchasing Russian energy, targeting major clients like India and China, which could exacerbate geopolitical tensions [4]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with U.S. military support for Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risk, further driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some fearing prolonged inflationary pressures, while others see it as a temporary spike [6]. - Market expectations for potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, aligning with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the resistance level of $3,350 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting further upward potential [7]. - The price is currently consolidating within a range of $3,353 to $3,374 per ounce, with a key support level at $3,343 per ounce [7].