Core Insights - Rare earths have become a key bargaining chip in the current US-China trade conflict, with China's export controls on critical raw materials directly influencing the outcome of subsequent negotiations [1] - Despite China holding over 90% of global rare earth refining capacity and the US relying on China for nearly 60% of refined products, global rare earth prices are not dictated by China [1] Group 1 - Rare earths are essential materials that play a significant role in various high-tech industries [1] - The importance of rare earths is underscored by their strategic value in the context of international trade and geopolitical tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is attempting to pressure China into concessions in the rare earth sector by proposing an extension of the tariff "truce," but this strategy may not succeed in overcoming China's firm stance [1][3][4] Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen proposed extending the tariff truce to negotiate concessions from China regarding rare earth exports, which are crucial for various industries [1][3] - The U.S. has shown increased anxiety in its negotiations, as evidenced by the lack of public announcements regarding upcoming talks, indicating a potential shift in strategy [1][3] - The U.S. is also seeking discussions on China's soybean purchases, highlighting its reliance on the Chinese market [1][3] Group 2: China's Response and Position - China has demonstrated a strong unwillingness to compromise, implementing stricter rare earth export controls and imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels [4] - The Chinese government has maintained a consistent message of resolving disputes through dialogue, which the U.S. has often overlooked [4] - China's firm stance is further illustrated by its actions against U.S. companies, such as investigations into Qualcomm, signaling a robust response to U.S. pressures [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the A-share market amidst external shocks, indicating a sustained upward trend in the medium term despite recent volatility [4][5] - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery with positive relative returns, driven by improved dividend yields and stable fundamentals [7][8] - The commercial aerospace industry, particularly in rocket technology, presents investment opportunities in engine component suppliers and testing service providers [12][15] Economic News - China's scientists have made significant advancements in solid-state lithium batteries, potentially doubling the range of electric vehicles from 500 km to over 1000 km [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a three-year plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming for 28 million charging stations [2] - TSMC reported a record net profit growth of 39% in Q3 2025, with optimistic projections for the AI market and a capital expenditure increase [2] Company Insights - XPeng Motors achieved a remarkable 79.4% year-on-year increase in exports in September 2025, with total exports exceeding 29,723 units in the first nine months [3] - Tianhao Energy signed an investment agreement for a natural gas development project, enhancing energy security in the Southwest region [3] - Xiaomi launched a new ad-free short drama app, indicating a strategic move into content distribution [3] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's PB valuation stands at 0.67x, indicating a favorable position compared to historical averages, with several banks showing positive stock performance [7][8] - The report anticipates stable net interest income growth due to a stabilization in interest margins and a resilient banking sector despite external pressures [9] - Mid-term dividend announcements from banks are expected to attract long-term capital, enhancing the sector's appeal [10] Commercial Aerospace Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of engine components and testing services in the commercial rocket industry, particularly referencing SpaceX's development of the Falcon 1 rocket [12][15] - Key suppliers in the domestic market, such as Sui Rui New Materials and Guoji Precision, are highlighted for their roles in providing critical components for rocket engines [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Beige Book shows a slight decline in consumer spending and generally weak labor demand. Fed Governor Milan calls for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, which leads to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and with the release of restrained statements from both China and the US, domestic risk appetite has rebounded. Multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, strengthening the short - term upward macro - drive. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and China - US games [3]. - In the asset market, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting and watching are advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are short - term oscillating, short - term cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, cautious long positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in consumer spending and weak labor demand. Fed Governor Milan calls for faster rate cuts, with two more cuts this year being realistic. This causes the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall, and global risk appetite to rise. Domestic: Economic growth accelerates, and with China - US restraint, domestic risk appetite rebounds. Multiple industry support policies are introduced, enhancing the short - term upward macro - drive. Focus on China - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Asset suggestions: short - term long for stock indices, cautious waiting for treasury bonds, different strategies for different commodity sectors [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as automobiles, consumer electronics, and airport shipping, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth accelerating, China - US restraint, and policy support, domestic risk appetite rebounds. Short - term long positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to rise. Driven by Fed rate - cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, spot gold reaches new highs with increased short - term volatility. Short - term long positions can be held or reduced at high prices, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets remain weak, with low trading volumes. The fundamentals are weak, with inventory rising and apparent consumption falling. Although production is falling, mills have weak willingness to cut production. The market may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to fall. With high iron - water output and shrinking mill profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. Supply shows a decline in global shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory rises. A bearish view is recommended [7][8]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebound slightly. Demand decreases due to a slight decline in steel production. Manganese ore prices are weak. Supply shows a decrease in the开工 rate and daily output of silicon manganese. Prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Copper prices rise and then fall. In 2026, global copper mine output growth is expected to be high, and the Panama Cobre copper mine may restart. US economic uncertainties are a risk. Domestically, electrolytic copper production is high, but demand is facing challenges, and inventory reduction is below expectations [11]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rise slightly as trade - tension concerns ease. Inventory is increasing, supply is rigid, demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. Tin - Supply is tight globally due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and policy adjustments. Demand improvement is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with support from tight supply and limited upside due to consumption suppression and macro risks [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 73,150 yuan/ton. With trade conflicts and potential spot selling pressure, the short - term upward drive is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is stable. With high production and no significant inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support [13]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are stable. With increasing warehouse receipts and supply - demand imbalance, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the spot price support [14]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Despite Fed rate - cut signals, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. US key price indicators fall, and some market indicators weaken. Oil prices will test lower levels, and macro risks should be monitored [15]. Asphalt - Oil prices are low, and asphalt oscillates at the bottom. Demand is near the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is necessary to monitor the cost support from crude oil [15][16]. PX - PX oscillates weakly, with demand support from PTA high - level operation. It is likely to continue to oscillate weakly with the polyester sector [16]. PTA - Polyester products oscillate at low levels. With high supply, increasing inventory, and weakening demand, PTA prices will continue to be weak [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol sentiment is weak. With rising inventory, new production expectations, and weak demand, it is expected to accumulate inventory in late October and trade at low levels [17]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusts with the polyester sector. With limited terminal orders and inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Methanol - Methanol prices oscillate weakly. Supply growth exceeds demand recovery, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to US sanctions on Iran [18]. PP - PP prices fall. The market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but new capacity and trade conflicts lead to a bearish view [19]. LLDPE - LLDPE prices adjust. Supply pressure is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and with weak oil prices and trade conflicts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. Urea - Urea prices are stable. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Although Indian tenders are a potential positive, export policies are unclear. Prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [21]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT November soybeans rise slightly. US soybean crushing in September reaches a high level, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year increases [22]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - After the National Day, the market sentiment improves, but oil - mill inventory pressure remains high. With sufficient soybean supply in the fourth quarter, soybean meal may oscillate at low levels. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade for rapeseed meal [22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, short - term rapeseed oil risk weakens. Soybean oil inventory pressure remains, and prices may be weak [22]. Palm Oil - Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle. October production in Malaysia increases, suppressing prices, while exports also increase, providing some support. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 is expected to be in the second half of next year, and short - term demand growth is unlikely [22]. Live Pigs - Pig supply increases in September and October, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, it is not enough to support prices. With the expectation of increased consumption in autumn and winter, pig prices may stabilize [23][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, on October 15, the main contract closed at 1,642 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 42,900 lots, a net increase of 422 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Overall, the coke fundamentals changed little, and with the resurgence of Sino-US trade game disturbances, the coke futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][28]. - For coking coal, on October 15, the main contract closed at 1,151 points, with an intraday increase of 1.01%. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 601,900 lots, a net decrease of 5,180 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased week-on-week. Overall, the supply of coking coal is strong while the demand is weak, with insufficient fundamental support. Coupled with the resurgence of US tariff pressure, the coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In September 2025, China's PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remained flat month-on-month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.1% month-on-month [5]. - On October 15, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 being 1,530 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [6]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi-first-class wet quenched coke flat price index is 1,520 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week, up 3.40% month-on-month, down 10.06% year-on-year, and down 21.65% compared with the same period. The ex-factory price of Qingdao Port's quasi-first-class wet quenched coke is 1,450 yuan/ton, up 0.69% week-on-week, down 0.68% month-on-month, down 10.49% year-on-year, and down 22.46% compared with the same period [7]. - Coking coal: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1.56% week-on-week and month-on-month, up 6.78% year-on-year, and down 18.71% compared with the same period. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, up 0.66% week-on-week, down 4.97% month-on-month, up 2.68% year-on-year, and down 17.74% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,660 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week, down 2.92% month-on-month, up 8.50% year-on-year, and down 14.87% compared with the same period [7]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the main contract was 1,642 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.34%. The highest price was 1,655 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,616.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 20,916 lots, a decrease of 1,933 lots from the previous trading day, and the position volume was 42,861 lots, an increase of 422 lots from the previous trading day [10]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the main contract was 1,151 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.01%. The highest price was 1,164 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,131.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 933,698 lots, a decrease of 34,344 lots from the previous trading day, and the position volume was 601,850 lots, a decrease of 5,180 lots from the previous trading day [10]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different regions and enterprises over the years, as well as the production situation of domestic steel mills, the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal wire rods, and the production and operation data of coal washing plants and coking plants [11][15][22]. Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, expecting short - term fluctuations [28].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S.-China trade relations** and its implications on various industries, particularly focusing on **rare earth exports** and the **debt market**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Tariff Threats**: The likelihood of the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff is low, viewed as a negotiation tactic. Historical context shows that excessive tariffs negatively impact the U.S. economy, especially with the current government shutdown increasing economic risks [1][2][6]. 2. **China's Rare Earth Export Controls**: China's implementation of rare earth export controls is a significant negotiation leverage. While China does not monopolize rare earth reserves, it holds a critical position in the refining process. This control could severely impact U.S. industries such as automotive, semiconductor, and military sectors [1][4][7]. 3. **Negotiation Window**: There remains a window for negotiations before the escalation of tariffs, with potential meetings between leaders around the APEC conference at the end of October. The timing of China's rare earth controls and U.S. tariffs creates an opportunity for dialogue [1][5]. 4. **Impact on Debt Market**: The current geopolitical tensions have a different impact on the debt market compared to previous instances. The stable funding environment and limited impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports suggest that domestic demand driven by policy stimulus is more influential on the market [1][6][7]. 5. **A-Share Market Resilience**: The expectation of a slow bull market in A-shares and increased investor confidence means that geopolitical events are likely to have a smaller impact than anticipated. The ongoing rebalancing between stocks and bonds continues to suppress the debt market [1][7]. 6. **Future Trading Strategies**: Future strategies should focus on changes in A-share risk appetite and liquidity. If risk appetite adjusts and liquidity becomes looser, it may present a buying opportunity. The anticipated U.S.-China agreement in early November could also create trading opportunities [3][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Economic Risks from Trade Disputes**: The ongoing trade disputes could exacerbate economic risks for the U.S., particularly with the government shutdown affecting GDP [2][5]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The A-share market's resilience is attributed to technological advancements and investor confidence, indicating that the market may not react as strongly to geopolitical tensions as previously expected [7][8]. 3. **Monitoring Yield Fluctuations**: Investors should be cautious about yield fluctuations, with a recommendation to avoid chasing yields below 1.75% due to potential risks, while yields above 1.8% may present buying opportunities [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Matson Navigation Company announced it will comply with new regulations from China's Ministry of Transport, absorbing all special port fees without passing costs onto customers, maintaining stable freight rates and services [1][3]. Group 1: Business Strategy - Matson's decision reflects a calculated business strategy aimed at preserving customer loyalty amidst rising operational costs due to new port fees [3][5]. - The company has a competitive edge in speed and reliability, reducing shipping time from Chinese ports to the U.S. West Coast to just over ten days, which is crucial for high-value goods and e-commerce [3][5]. Group 2: Cost Implications - The additional port fees could significantly impact Matson's profitability, with estimates suggesting an increase in costs from approximately 20 million RMB in 2025 to 56 million RMB by 2028 for a single vessel making five trips a year [12][14]. - The company's commitment to not raising prices provides a sense of stability for foreign trade enterprises reliant on its services, alleviating immediate cost concerns [12][14]. Group 3: Industry Context - The port fee conflict originated from the U.S. Trade Representative's announcement of additional fees on Chinese-operated vessels, prompting a reciprocal response from China [6][8]. - The fee structure from China is set to increase incrementally, starting at 400 RMB per net ton in 2025 and rising to 1120 RMB by 2028, marking a significant escalation in the trade tensions [10][12]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The sustainability of Matson's price freeze is uncertain, as ongoing increases in port fees, fuel prices, and labor costs may challenge the company's ability to maintain this strategy long-term [14][16]. - The situation presents a dilemma for other shipping companies, weighing the options of following Matson's lead to retain market share or passing costs onto customers [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - China's recent export control measures on rare earths are unprecedented and will enhance its leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: China's Export Control Measures - On October 9, China announced seven new regulations to impose export controls on critical resources including rare earths, lithium batteries, and graphite, causing significant global market reactions [3]. - The new regulations require foreign companies to obtain Chinese approval for exporting products containing 0.1% or more of Chinese rare earth elements or utilizing Chinese rare earth technology [3][5]. - The measures are seen as a strategic move to target the U.S. supply chain, particularly affecting the AI industry and potentially leading to an economic downturn in the U.S. if enforced rigorously [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are essential for modern industries, used in military applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and electric vehicle batteries [5]. - China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining, 90% of separation and processing, and 93% of magnet manufacturing, giving it a dominant position in the market [5]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that the export controls are in line with international practices and are not outright bans, as compliant applications for civilian use will still be approved [5][11]. Group 3: U.S. Response and Policy Shifts - Following China's announcement, U.S. President Trump initially expressed a strong response, indicating discussions on countermeasures [7][8]. - Within 24 hours, Trump's stance shifted to a desire for dialogue with China, highlighting the strategic significance of rare earths in the U.S. economy and defense [9][10]. - Experts suggest that China's timing in implementing these controls is strategically significant, as it introduces new leverage in negotiations [10]. Group 4: Ongoing Negotiations and Future Implications - Despite rising tensions, there have been indications of continued communication between the U.S. and China, with a working-level meeting held on October 13 [11][12]. - Both countries are encouraged to resolve their differences through dialogue and maintain the progress made in previous negotiations [12]. - The escalation of the trade conflict into a resource and technology battle signifies a shift in global supply chains, with potential long-term impacts on high-end manufacturing and geopolitical dynamics [13][14]. Group 5: Global Supply Chain Challenges - China's rare earth export controls reflect a broader trend of shifting from technological barriers to resource barriers in global competition [13]. - Companies reliant on Chinese rare earths, particularly in the semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, may face increased costs and need to restructure their supply chains [13][14]. - In the long term, this situation may accelerate the development of alternative technologies and increase investments in global rare earth exploration, while the U.S. and EU may seek to establish independent supply chains [13][14].

Overall Core View - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the restrained statements from both China and the US. The domestic economic growth has accelerated, and the issuance of multiple industry stabilization and growth plans has increased policy support, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. Market Analysis by Asset Class Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious long. The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as consumer electronics, auto parts, and short - drama games. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - **Commodity Sector**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching. Steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, while iron ore prices were short - term strong and silicon - manganese/silicon - iron prices were expected to continue range - bound oscillations [2][4][6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, short - term cautious long [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautious long. The precious metal market continued to rise, and short - term long positions should be held, while medium - and long - term buying on dips is recommended [2][3]. Specific Commodities Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak, with low - level trading volume. Although the export data in September exceeded expectations and market risk appetite increased, real - world demand has not improved, and supply remains high. The steel market is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Ore demand remains strong, but the expectation of steel mill production cuts has increased. Supply and inventory data show mixed trends, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to when steel mills start to cut production [4][5]. - **Silicon - manganese/Silicon - iron**: Spot and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is still okay in the short term, but the prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations [6]. - **Copper**: The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be relatively high in 2026. However, the US economy has uncertainties, and the domestic electrolytic copper demand is facing challenges. The copper inventory reduction is less than expected, and the US copper inventory is high [7]. - **Aluminum**: The price recovered due to the alleviation of trade tension concerns. The inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened marginally. It is difficult for the price to rise significantly [8]. - **Tin**: The global tin ore supply is tight, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to remain high - level oscillating, but the upside is pressured [8]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract declined. Short - term upward drive is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The production has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply is high, the demand is low, and the market is waiting for the implementation of the storage purchase news [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but it remains below $60. The long - term trend is bearish, and the short - term is oscillating [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: It maintains a weak - side oscillating pattern. The peak - season demand is almost over, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [12]. - **PX**: It follows the polyester sector and remains in a weak - side oscillation. Although it gets some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - **PTA**: It maintains a low - level oscillation. The demand pressure will increase, and the supply will remain high, resulting in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has increased, the demand has weakened, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level range [13]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Methanol**: The supply growth rate far exceeds the demand recovery, resulting in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The post - holiday market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but the supply pressure in the long - term is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [14]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is operating weakly due to the strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and the future trend depends on the export policy [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The concerns about Trump's tariff remarks in the CBOT market have eased, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is good [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to be abundant, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract is difficult to rebound significantly. The market should pay attention to the performance of the CBOT soybean market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory has increased, and the price may be relatively weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, which forms a support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle. The October production in Malaysia increases, which suppresses the price, while the export increase also provides some support [18].