美联储 副主席 杰斐逊称他认为人工智能的崛起与20世纪90年代末的互联网繁荣之间有明显的区别。杰 斐逊在为周五在克利夫兰联储举行的活动准备的讲话中表示：相比之下许多上世纪90年代末期和2000年 代的互联网公司"几乎没有实现利润只有投机性的收入前景即使它们获得了外部资金，并且在投资者热 情高涨的情况下相对轻松地在交易所上市"杰斐逊补充说以市盈率衡量的人工智能相关公司的估值迄今 为止仍远低于互联网公司的峰值水平。他说在互联网泡沫繁荣的顶峰时期有超过1,000家公司以互联网 公司的身份上市而如今有大约50家专注于人工智能的上市公司。杰斐逊还表示现在判断人工智能的崛起 对美联储货币政策决策的影响可能还为时过早。杰斐逊表示金融体系仍然稳健且富有弹性。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate regarding the valuation of the AI industry is highlighted by Nvidia's strong financial report, which has positively influenced related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets, indicating optimism about the industry's long-term growth potential despite concerns about capital expenditure and financing cycles [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - Current discussions around the "AI bubble" focus on the high valuations of AI companies, with comparisons drawn to the 1999 internet bubble. The S&P 500's current PE ratio stands at 22.8, above the historical average of 16.8 but below the peak of 24.1. The S&P Information Technology Index has a PE of 30.4, significantly lower than the internet bubble's peak of 58.1 [1][2]. - The relative valuation of the S&P 500 compared to Germany's DAX is at its median since 2019, indicating that U.S. stocks are not at a high valuation level. The valuation of leading stocks, such as the Magnificent Seven (Mag7), is also relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Industry Development Stage - The AI industry is considered to be in its early stages, with the current market sentiment reflecting a "frenzy" typical of initial phases of technological revolutions. Research indicates that the AI sector is at a historical 54% percentile, akin to the early stages of the internet bubble [3]. - The current AI market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations and preliminary validation," with significant growth in computing power and a focus on the expansion of platform and application layers in the next phase [3]. Macro Environment and Bubble Concerns - The potential for an AI bubble to burst is closely tied to macroeconomic policies. Current conditions, including sustained profitability in AI companies and a relatively loose liquidity environment, do not suggest imminent market corrections [4][5]. - A key difference from the 2000 macro environment is the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, reducing the chances of a bubble being burst through aggressive rate hikes as seen in the past [5]. - The next 2 to 3 years will be critical for validating the AI industry's value, with the potential for a "golden age" of capital in the sector following any bubble phase [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the current AI market is experiencing a phase more akin to 1997 in the internet era rather than the peak in 1999, indicating a potential for further growth rather than an imminent bubble burst [2][22] - There are two opposing camps regarding AI's future: pessimists liken it to the 2000 internet bubble, while optimists see it as a last chance for those who missed out on AI investments [1][22] - Investment trends show a divergence, with Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stake in Google, while firms like SoftBank and Bridgewater are reducing their holdings in Nvidia [1] Group 2 - AI demand is growing rapidly, with generative AI adoption reaching 72% in its second year, compared to over 10 years for the internet to reach similar levels [4][7] - The capital expenditure to revenue ratio for the "seven sisters" of US tech is currently at 16%, lower than the 20% peak during the 1998 internet bubble, indicating room for investment expansion [10] - Operating cash flow is still sufficient to support capital expenditures, with the ratio of capital expenditure to operating cash flow projected to rise from 33% at the end of 2023 to 49% by Q3 2025, remaining below the 56% peak during the internet bubble [13][18] - There is no excessive reliance on debt financing, with the debt-to-equity ratio for the "seven sisters" decreasing from 48% in 2023 to 32% by Q3 2025, reducing systemic leverage risk [15][18] - Current valuations for the "seven sisters" are around 33 times earnings, significantly lower than the 60 times seen during the internet bubble [20] Group 3 - The AI revolution is characterized by faster, more concentrated, and healthier adoption compared to the internet era, with a stronger alignment between leading companies' financial health and their revenue growth [21] - In China, the valuation gap between tech leaders is notable, with US tech at around 33 times earnings compared to 20 times for Chinese tech and consumer leaders, suggesting potential for upward movement in Chinese AI [23][26] - Investment enthusiasm in China is rising, with capital expenditures for tech giants turning positive in early 2025, and operating cash flow expected to grow by 17.1% in 2026 [26][29] - AI revenue growth for major Chinese cloud providers is increasing significantly, indicating that the current market uptrend is supported by sustainable profitability rather than mere valuation expansion [29] - Policy support for AI in China is strong, with significant financial resources allocated to AI development, suggesting a favorable environment for continued growth [30][32]

特约评论员 吴金铎 再次，当前美股科技股的估值已经非常接近互联网泡沫时期。标普500席勒市盈率10月30日时已攀升至 40.95倍，而历史上最高值出现在互联网泡沫时期，即1999年12月时为44.19倍。当前科技股估值接近互 联网泡沫时期，值得市场提高警惕。 当前，市场正担忧美股人工智能（AI）领域的非理性繁荣。8月以来，美股科技股回调，加上AI龙头股 英伟达市值大增，以及美国AI领域实际应用价值的质疑，叠加美联储12月降息预期回调等多重因素， 近期对AI泡沫的担忧甚嚣尘上。 首先，2025年6月一份由几位复杂科学家撰写的论文，对大语言模型性能提升曲线提出质疑，引发了对 相当长时间内持续吸金的美国AI领域的应用价值能否兑现，以及AI未来前景的巨大担忧。 其次，2025年美股前10大市值的公司，已有8家是AI相关科技公司，AI集中度远高于互联网泡沫时期。 当前美股前10大市值的公司分别为：英伟达、苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、博通、Meta、特斯拉、伯 克希尔哈撒韦、摩根大通（时间截至10月30日）。而在1999年末，美股市值前10大的公司分别为：微 软、通用电气、思科、沃尔玛、英特尔、诺基亚、辉瑞制药、艾克森美孚 ...

此外，一些重仓科技股的资金也在兑现浮盈。如2025年10月软银出售3210万股英伟达，套现58.3亿美 元，资金用于向OpenAI追加225亿美元投资。不过这也并不代表软银看空AI领域。此外2008年次贷危机 中"大空头"的标志性人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）已开始做空英伟达等AI龙头，加大了市场对AI 泡沫的担忧。 再次，当前美股科技股的估值已经非常接近互联网泡沫时期。标普500席勒市盈率10月30日时已攀升至 40.95倍，而历史上最高值出现在互联网泡沫时期，即1999年12月时为44.19倍。当前科技股估值接近互 联网泡沫时期，值得市场提高警惕。 当前，市场正担忧美股人工智能（AI）领域的非理性繁荣。8月以来，美股科技股回调，加上AI龙头股 英伟达市值大增，以及美国AI领域实际应用价值的质疑，叠加美联储12月降息预期回调等多重因素， 近期对AI泡沫的担忧甚嚣尘上。 首先，2025年6月一份由几位复杂科学家撰写的论文，对大语言模型性能提升曲线提出质疑，引发了对 相当长时间内持续吸金的美国AI领域的应用价值能否兑现，以及AI未来前景的巨大担忧。 其次，2025年美股前10大市值的公司，已有8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Google CEO Sundar Pichai has expressed concerns about the potential "AI bubble," highlighting irrational factors in the current trillion-dollar AI investment frenzy, suggesting that a bubble burst could affect all companies involved [1][10][11] Group 1: AI Investment Trends - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI, with Meta projecting capital expenditures between $70 billion and $72 billion for 2025, up from previous estimates [3][5] - Microsoft reported a total capital expenditure of $34.9 billion as of September 30, exceeding analyst expectations and previous quarter figures [5] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, raised its revenue forecast for the year from $85 billion to between $91 billion and $93 billion, nearly double its projected capital expenditures for 2024 [5] Group 2: Company Valuations and Financial Performance - Nvidia has become the first company to surpass a market valuation of $5 trillion, reflecting the immense value attributed to AI-related businesses [5] - OpenAI's valuation surged to $500 billion following a secondary share sale, a 67% increase from its previous valuation of $300 billion, despite reporting a quarterly loss of $11.5 billion [6][9] - The financial impact of OpenAI's losses has affected its net profit and earnings per share, reducing them by $3.1 billion and $0.41 respectively [7][8] Group 3: Industry Perspectives on AI - Pichai compared the current AI situation to the 2000 internet bubble, indicating that no company would be immune to potential fallout [10] - He acknowledged the excitement surrounding AI but emphasized the need for a balanced perspective, recognizing both rational and irrational elements in the industry's current state [11] - Pichai cautioned against blindly trusting AI-generated information, advocating for the use of additional tools, such as Google Search, to verify information [13][14]

11月18日，受到日韩等周边股市以及大宗商品、加密货币等风险资产全线走弱拖累，今日三大指数再度陷入弱势探底行情，个股超4100只飘绿，而跌停家数 也大幅增至30余家。沪深两市成交额1.93万亿，截至收盘，沪指跌0.81%，深成指跌0.92%，创业板指跌1.16%。 跌破6725点! 失守50日均线! 华尔街:美股技7 原创 环球市场情报 2025-11-18 15:27 星期二 财联社 黄君芝 原创 环球市场情报 2025-11-18 10:24 星期二 财联社 潇湘 ①标普500指数周一是139个交易日以来首次收于50日移动平均线下方，打破了本世纪以来维! 势线上方第二长的纪录; ②当天另一个关键数字则是被高盛誉为多空分水岭的6725点，标普500指数周一的收盘位667. 点位低出了逾50点。 "互联网泡沫"为鉴, 沃顿商学院教授直指AI繁 "我认为人工智能最大的风险不在于它是否可行，我认为它一定可行，但它可以更低成本地实现。"( 西格尔将当前的人工智能繁荣与互联网泡沫时期进行了比较,认为那个时代最重要的启示是,成7 沫最终破裂的主要原因之一。 而隔夜的市场无疑再度出现了这一幕。周一股市回调之际,亚马逊正计 ...

Thiel从不是跟风的"墙头草"——互联网泡沫前提前离场，后押中比特币、特斯拉，每次都踩对趋势拐 点。这次清仓英伟达，绝非脑热，而是"蓄谋已久"。 他在闭门会上说得直白：现在的AI，像极了1999年互联网泡沫顶峰。投资者盯着"未来蓝图"，却没人 算"现在能不能赚钱"——为遥远的技术故事付了太高溢价，实际收益根本跟不上。 11月初，美股三季度13F持仓报告一出，投资圈直接炸锅。 这话戳中了要害：英伟达股价去年翻数倍，估值早透支了部分增长。对Thiel这种"赚确定性钱"的价值 派来说，止盈离场不是看空AI，而是"落袋为安"的老江湖操作。 PeterThiel，这位靠押注科技趋势封神的大佬，居然清仓了英伟达。 要知道，英伟达曾是他持仓的"压舱石"（53.77万股，占比40%），如今一股不剩；美股总持仓更从2.12 亿美元砍至7440万美元，换手率超80%，近乎"大换血"。散户群瞬间慌了："连Thiel都跑了，AI要 凉？" 紧接着，贝佐斯称AI热像"工业泡沫"，高盛CEO提示未来12-24个月可能回调。偏偏11月20日凌晨，英 伟达Q3财报将发布——这场"AI定调之战"，把市场神经绷到了极致。 但你要是真信"AI要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of prominent investors like Peter Thiel and Jeff Bezos regarding AI investments, suggesting that the current market is undergoing a rational adjustment rather than a downturn in AI itself [3][5][22]. Group 1: Thiel's Actions and Market Reactions - Peter Thiel has completely liquidated his position in Nvidia, which was previously a significant part of his portfolio, reducing his total holdings from $212 million to $74.4 million, indicating a turnover rate of over 80% [3][4]. - Thiel's decision is framed as a strategic move rather than a panic response, as he compares the current AI landscape to the peak of the 1999 internet bubble, suggesting that investors are overvaluing future potential without considering current profitability [5][6]. - The market reacted with concern, interpreting Thiel's exit as a sign that AI might be losing momentum, leading to increased anxiety among retail investors [3][5]. Group 2: Comparison with Internet Bubble - The article contrasts the current AI investment climate with the 1999 internet bubble, arguing that AI is more akin to the early stages of the internet in 1997, where significant growth potential remains [10][14]. - Key indicators show that AI investment currently constitutes only 1.2% of GDP, compared to 15% during the peak of the internet bubble, suggesting that there is still substantial room for growth [10][14]. - Current AI companies are demonstrating profitability, with the S&P 500's net profit margin at 13.1%, indicating a stark difference from the unprofitable internet companies of the late 1990s [11][14]. Group 3: Long-term AI Potential - The article emphasizes that AI is not a bubble but a transformative technological revolution, with applications in various sectors like healthcare and industrial processes already generating revenue [17][22]. - Support from government policies and funding is stronger now than during the internet bubble, with initiatives like the U.S. "Chip Act" and European digital strategies promoting AI development [17][22]. - The speed of AI adoption is significantly faster than that of the internet, with practical applications already integrated into daily life, reinforcing the argument that AI is a necessity rather than a speculative concept [17][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid companies that lack core technology and rely solely on AI hype, focusing instead on established companies with stable cash flows and proven AI applications [20][22]. - Attention should be directed towards platform giants like Microsoft and Google, which have the infrastructure to monetize AI effectively, as well as core players in the AI supply chain [20][22]. - The article encourages investors to remain patient and selective, as the current market volatility may lead to the emergence of future leaders in the AI space, similar to how the 1999 bubble ultimately benefited companies like Amazon and Google [20][22].

Core Insights - Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro fund liquidated all Nvidia holdings, signaling a potential end to the AI hype as Nvidia's market cap surpassed $500 billion and analysts raised target prices to $300 [1][3] - Thiel's actions reflect a broader skepticism among tech leaders, with Jeff Bezos calling the AI trend a "perfect industrial bubble" and predictions of a 10% market correction within 12-24 months [3] - Despite Nvidia's impressive quarterly sales of $46.7 billion and a 56% growth in data center business, Thiel warns of a significant gap between market enthusiasm and real economic value, reminiscent of the 1999 internet bubble [3][4] Investment Strategy - Following the liquidation, Thiel's portfolio shrank from $212 million to $74.4 million, retaining only three stocks: a 76% reduction in Tesla, and new positions in Microsoft and Apple [3][4] - Microsoft and Apple are seen as safer investments due to their diversified revenue streams, unlike pure AI chip companies, allowing them to thrive amid AI transformations [3][4] - Apple's vast ecosystem of 2.3 billion devices positions it as a "safe haven" benefiting from AI trends without the burden of heavy computational infrastructure [4] Market Reflection - The portfolio adjustments indicate a collective reconsideration of the monetization path for AI, as tech giants invest heavily in computational infrastructure [4][6] - Microsoft’s Azure cloud services and Apple's "physical AI" vision exemplify a "slow-burning" transformation, showcasing resilience amid market volatility [6] - The shift in investment strategy suggests that smart capital is now seeking stable havens that can engage with future trends without the pressure of immediate returns [6]