Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the domestic soybean market has improved, with short - term soybean futures prices expected to be oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. - The international oil price decline has an impact on the entire oil market. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices of palm oil are expected to be oscillating weaker [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating stronger, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The combined weather themes in North and South American soybean producing areas have boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The rise in US soybean futures prices has lifted the domestic soybean market. Although there is an expectation of improved supply in the domestic market, the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has been restored. The short - term soybean futures prices are oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. b. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating weaker, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weaker [7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices has affected the entire oil market. Southeast Asian palm oil production and demand are both increasing. Whether the exports of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory will continue to accumulate. With the rotation in the oil sector, palm oil will receive indirect support from rapeseed oil. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices are oscillating weaker [7]. c. Other Related Factors - **For Bean Meal 2509**: The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **For Soybean Oil 2509**: The influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **For Palm 2509**: The influencing factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]

Group 1: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market continues to experience a reduction in production, with factory inventories decreasing, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [1] - Demand for molten iron has significantly increased to 2.44 million tons, primarily due to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of large blast furnaces [1] - The export of silicon iron in March saw a month-on-month increase of 24.46%, but the market generally believes this growth lacks sustainability [1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market maintains a reduction in production, with the pace of reduction remaining stable compared to the previous period [2] - The demand side shows that the steel procurement for April is nearing its end, with significant increases in molten iron production to 2.44 million tons due to steel mill profit recovery [2] - The global shipment of manganese ore has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, leading to a rise in port inventories [2]