东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 1. 市场监管总局：市场监管总局对光伏行业开展价格竞争秩序合规指导。 通报了光伏行业价格违法问题和风险，指出当前光伏行业存在的低质竞争、 同质化重复建设等"内卷式"竞争行为。（资料来源：同花顺） 2. 国家发改委："十五五"时期，要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，维护公平 竞争环境，提高行业集中度。规范市场竞争秩序，深入实施公平竞争审查制 度，加强价格监测、质量检查。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 国家统计局：经最终核实，2024 年，GDP 现价总量为 1348066 亿元，比 初步核算数减少 1018 亿元；按不变价格计算，比上年增长 5.0%，与初步核 算数持平。（资料来源：同花顺） 4. 辽宁省：拟于 2026 年一季度发行 798.5 亿元地方政府债券，包括 191.5 亿元新增债券和 607 亿元再融资债券。（资料来源：同花顺） 5. 财政部：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘 子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。 三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结 构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财 ...

12月12日，国家市场监督管理总局就《汽车行业价格行为合规指南(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见。 《指南》对汽车生产企业、汽车销售企业的价格行为提出了更具体的指导，明确了"禁止亏本销售、明 码标价、禁止价格欺诈" 等红线。 中国汽车产业经历改革开放以来40多年的高速发展，正在向新能源智能化转型新阶段全力奋进。但 是产业变革伴随着激烈的竞争，优胜劣汰的残酷，以及去伪存真的战略定力。在这一过程中，政策、市 场、企业、消费者等方方面面都在博弈，也都在共同成长。 回顾2025年，或许将成为中国汽车工业史上最为激荡和难忘的一年。产业变革难以避免带来乱象层 出，超过十次监管政策密集出台，展现出对症下药的果断。主管部门多次集中约谈整车企业一把手，历 来罕见。为汽车产业保驾护航，在新能源智能化转型的关键时期，无形的大手正在托举全产业链条健康 成长。 监管政策不断升级，遏制价格战贯穿全年 "杀敌一千，自损八百"的价格战由此将通过更多层面、更具体环节被遏制。《指南》推出后，比亚 迪、北汽、小鹏、奇瑞、东风、长城、江汽、零跑、长安等车企主动表态，会严格遵守明码标价原则， 杜绝价格欺诈和不正当竞争。 引发市场关注的是，"精准"响应《指南 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘洋 卓洋）12月29日，国家发展改革委创新和高技术发展司在刊发的《因地制宜发 展新质生产力》署名文章中提出，发展新质生产力是一项长期任务和系统工程，要坚持一切从实际出 发，具体问题具体分析，因地制宜、分类指导，不断提高发展新质生产力的实践本领和能力。 文章提出，一是坚持全国一盘棋，优化重大生产力布局，统筹谋划、系统推进重点领域发展，防止一哄 而上、重复建设，坚决反对"内卷式"竞争，增强发展新质生产力的整体效能。二是发挥各地比较优势， 鼓励和引导各地找准在全国发展大局中的功能定位，立足自身资源禀赋、产业基础，合理设定目标，找 到最佳路径，发展特色产业。地区间要加强产业链协同合作，优化分工、创新协作。三是因业分类施 策，根据不同产业发展阶段、技术周期、市场需求、竞争态势的不同，有针对性地提出务实有效的产 业、技术政策，形成好的政策环境，并根据行业发展及时调整完善，推动不同行业不同产业以新需求引 领新供给、以新供给创造新需求，科学谋划发展方向和路径。 ...

| 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现实与预期差加大多空分歧，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注情绪面提振盘面 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，波动较大 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年12月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 29 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 126,750 | 1,340 | 9,570 | 11,160 | 9,490 | 3,7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the role of the private economy in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the challenges posed by external economic environments [2][11]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Growth - The current economic environment shows a significant contradiction between strong supply and weak demand, necessitating a focus on expanding effective domestic demand [2][3]. - The central economic work meeting has prioritized the construction of a strong domestic market, indicating a strategic shift towards internal circulation [2][3]. - In 2024, China's consumer rate was reported at 39.9%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries by 10 to 30 percentage points, highlighting the potential for growth in domestic consumption [2]. Group 2: Investment in Human Capital - The concept of "investing in people" is highlighted as a crucial strategy for economic development, emphasizing the need to allocate more resources to education, healthcare, and social security [5][6]. - This approach aims to enhance human capital and improve living standards, which are essential for driving sustainable economic growth [6][7]. - The integration of "investment in people" with "investment in material" is seen as a necessary step to address supply-demand imbalances and promote high-quality development [7]. Group 3: Private Economy Development - The private economy is recognized as a vital force for modernization and high-quality development, with significant contributions to job creation and GDP [11][12]. - In 2024, the private economy in Sichuan achieved a value-added of 36,461.1 billion yuan, accounting for 56.4% of the province's GDP [11]. - There is a need for targeted policies to address the challenges faced by the private sector, including improving the business environment and supporting innovation [12][13]. Group 4: Regional Coordination - The article discusses the importance of regional coordination and urban-rural integration as key tasks for economic development in 2026 [14][15]. - Sichuan aims to enhance inter-provincial cooperation, particularly with Chongqing, to foster balanced development and optimize resource allocation [14][15]. - The focus on building a modern urban system and improving infrastructure is essential for supporting regional economic growth [15][16]. Group 5: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The integration of culture and tourism is identified as a strategic priority for Sichuan, aiming to leverage its rich cultural resources to enhance economic development [24][25]. - The shift from resource-driven to value-creation in the tourism sector is necessary to address existing challenges and improve the overall quality of tourism offerings [25][26]. - The article emphasizes the need for innovative approaches to enhance the cultural tourism experience and drive economic growth [26][27]. Group 6: Water Resource Management - The "Yin Da Ji Min" project is a significant cross-basin water diversion initiative aimed at addressing water resource distribution issues in Sichuan [28][29]. - This project is expected to provide essential water supply for industrial and agricultural needs, supporting sustainable development in the region [29][30]. - The initiative aligns with national strategies for water security and ecological protection, contributing to the overall resilience of the region's water management system [30][31]. Group 7: Public Service Mapping - The development of a public service "population map" is proposed to enhance the precision of service delivery in response to demographic changes [32][33]. - This innovative approach aims to improve the allocation of public resources and ensure that services are tailored to the needs of the population [33][34]. - The initiative represents a shift towards data-driven governance, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of public service provision [34].

深化制度保障，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设。加快推进"五统一、一开放"，破除阻碍全国统一大市场 建设的堵点卡点，促进有效市场和有为政府更好结合，为优化资源配置、扩大内需、缓解同质化竞争提 供制度保障。持续深入推进政府职能转变，优化完善政府政绩考核体系，健全政府不当干预市场竞争行 为治理规则，规范地方政府经济促进行为，破除地方保护和市场分割，清理行业壁垒，打通区域"小循 环"，畅通释放内需潜力的"大循环"，为企业创造更加稳定、透明和可预期的发展环境。 巩固动态平衡，供需两侧协同施策稳根基。将扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，推 动供给和需求达到更高水平均衡。在需求侧大力提振居民消费，要进一步优化收入分配格局，加大投资 于人力度，提升公共服务水平，加强社会保障体系建设，切实增强居民实际消费能力和消费意愿；同 时，优化消费环境，加快清理限制性措施。在供给侧持续深化结构性改革，要坚持智能化、绿色化、融 合化方向，发展智能制造、绿色制造、服务型制造，分类开展行业治理，大力推动重点行业产能治理， 以高质量的供给适配不断升级的需求，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡。此外， 要统筹国内国际两个大局 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% this week, with the asset allocation sequence favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash [1][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and address the "price stagnation" issue, highlighting fixed asset investment as a core solution [3][22] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shanghai 300 stock index futures rose by 2.46%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 0.72% and iron ore contracts decreased by 0.06% [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.04%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.84% [2][46] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, with a focus on the implementation of incremental policies [3][4] - The report suggests that the demand for fixed investment remains crucial in addressing the issue of "price stagnation," with real estate investment continuing to drag down fixed asset investment performance [3][24] Sector Insights - The report highlights that the industrial product prices are influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and domestic investment shortfalls, particularly in the coal mining and washing industry [3][28] - The automotive sector is noted for a decline in wholesale and retail sales, with a year-on-year drop of 9% and 11% respectively, indicating a potential for recovery driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [38][44] Key Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the GDP for 2024 was finalized at 13,480.66 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [6][26] - The report also tracks high-frequency data, indicating a decrease in the operating rates of major steel mills and a decline in social inventory of construction materials [28][29]

Group 1: Core Issues of "Involution" Competition - "Involution" competition distorts market mechanisms and hinders innovation, leading to inefficient resource allocation and a lack of dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] - The imbalance between supply and demand is a fundamental cause of "involution" competition, with China's manufacturing capacity outpacing domestic effective demand, as evidenced by a 2.9% year-on-year growth in retail sales and a 1.7% decline in fixed asset investment [1] - Insufficient innovation is a deep-rooted cause of "involution" competition, with many companies relying on price competition due to market saturation and limited new market space, leading to intensified internal competition [2] Group 2: Role of Platform Economy - Platform-driven business models exacerbate "involution" competition, as leading platforms monopolize data and algorithms, shifting competition from product innovation to traffic-driven strategies [3] - The reliance on platforms leads to increased costs and diluted profits for merchants, while many small businesses become "digital vassals," limiting their differentiation capabilities [3] Group 3: Government Influence - Government overreach and neglect contribute to "involution" competition, with local governments pursuing short-term economic growth through protectionism and irrational industrial layouts, resulting in overcapacity in certain industries [4] - Inadequate regulatory frameworks and a lack of understanding of new technologies hinder the correction of disorderly competition in various sectors [4]

（来源：电动知家） 电动知家消息，低价倾销、恶性价格战、同质化竞争，这些制约新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏产业健康发展的乱象，即将迎来系统性整治。12月26 日，国家发展改革委产业发展司发布文章明确指出，对新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏等"新三样"产业，关键在于规范秩序、创新引领。文章指出，"十 五五"时期要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，维护公平竞争环境，提高行业集中度，打造全球技术领先高地。 锂电池领域，2025年上半年储能电芯中标价已经低至0.26元/Wh，磷酸铁锂电芯均价相较高点已累计下跌50%左右。部分二线厂商甚至以低于现金成 本的价格抢单，导致全行业毛利率系统性压缩。 "新三样"产业作为我国在激烈市场竞争下培育出的优势产业，是我国外贸高质量发展的新引擎，但也面临市场竞争失序、核心优势还不牢固等问题 挑战。这一政策导向与12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议精神一脉相承，会议明确提出要"深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。 近期，多个部委接连出台文件，为"新三样"产业健康发展划定红线。国家市场监管总局发布《汽车行业价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》，直指 行业内频繁出现的恶性价格战、变相降价、价格欺诈等问题。文件明确规定，汽车 ...

市场监管总局将通过加大产品质量监督力度、加强价格和反不正当竞争执法等手段，严厉查处违法违规 行为，切实维护市场公平竞争秩序，推动光伏行业规范健康可持续发展。 来源：市说新语 （文章来源：证券时报） 12月26日，市场监管总局在安徽合肥对光伏行业开展价格竞争秩序合规指导。 市场监管总局通报了光伏行业价格违法问题和风险，并指出，当前光伏行业存在的低质竞争、同质化重 复建设等"内卷式"竞争行为，让企业普遍面临盈利困境，扭曲了市场资源配置，抑制了企业在技术创新 与产品升级上的投入意愿，形成"劣币驱逐良币"效应。 市场监管总局强调，全行业要充分认识整治光伏行业"内卷式"竞争的重要性。光伏企业要依法依规开展 生产经营，严禁价格串通、价格欺诈等不正当价格行为；坚决杜绝虚假宣传、商业贿赂等不正当竞争行 为。发电企业要切实承担起应负责任，在光伏项目招标中坚持优质优价，加强对产品质量的要求。行业 协会要切实履行自律职能，引导企业通过创新提升、质量优化和服务升级实现共赢，共同推动形成健康 有序、可持续发展的行业生态。 ...