中盛期货 能化板块周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资格证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 聚酯板块数据周报 中盛期货 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。伊朗的原油出口星 在近年保持韧性，且紧邻霍尔木兹海峡，对全球能源运输咽喉的控制能力较强。一旦地缘冲突升级导致伊朗原油供应中断或霍尔木兹海峡航 运受阻，对全球原油市场的影响较大。 据Lloyds List Intellgence和另一海事安全消息来源周四发布的公告称，一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海遭遇无人机袭击，促使其请求土耳 其海岸警卫队援助并改变航线。 3 1 2 中盛期货 聚酯板块期现货价格走势 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普日前称，将让美国大型石油公司前往委内瑞拉投资，维修该国石油基础设施并为美国"创造收益"。这一 表态进一步显露了美方染指委内瑞拉石油资源的企图。不过，美业内人士却普遍认为，目前美国石油企业在委内瑞拉的投资意愿相当低。 按当前披霸的最 ...

受市场供应过剩信号影响，全球最大原油出口国沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调原油售价，但其对东亚地 区的原油销量仍将维持在常规水平之上。 据知情交易商透露，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司计划向中国以外的亚洲炼油企业供应的2月装船原油，将 较常规供应量至少增加900万桶。这些交易商要求匿名，因其未获公开对外发言的授权。沙特阿美方面 暂未回应置评请求。 受全球原油供应过剩担忧加剧的影响，国际原油基准价格创下2020年以来最大年度跌幅，沙特阿美本周 下调了面向亚洲市场的原油售价。交易商称，这使得沙特原油的定价具备了足够竞争力，可与阿布扎比 等周边产区的现货原油品类相抗衡。 责任编辑：李肇孚 受市场供应过剩信号影响，全球最大原油出口国沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调原油售价，但其对东亚地 区的原油销量仍将维持在常规水平之上。 据知情交易商透露，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司计划向中国以外的亚洲炼油企业供应的2月装船原油，将 较常规供应量至少增加900万桶。这些交易商要求匿名，因其未获公开对外发言的授权。沙特阿美方面 暂未回应置评请求。 受全球原油供应过剩担忧加剧的影响，国际原油基准价格创下2020年以来最大年度跌幅，沙特阿美本周 下调了面向亚洲市 ...

智通财经获悉，高盛集团的一项调查发现，在全球原油供应过剩迹象日益明显之际，地缘政治因素正推 动机构投资者对原油的看空程度接近过去十年来的最极端水平。高盛周四发布的调查结果显示，在接受 调查的逾1000名、横跨多种资产类别的客户中，超过59%的受访者对原油持看空或略微看空立场。这一 情绪水平几乎触及可追溯至2016年1月的该月度数据集中的历史低点。唯一一次投资者对原油的悲观程 度略高于当前是在去年四月，当时美国总统特朗普威胁对美国贸易伙伴大规模征收高额关税。此外，调 查还显示，机构投资者中表示原油是其最偏好做空品种的比例创下历史新高。这进一步加剧了整体看空 情绪。 特朗普于上周末对委内瑞拉发起"斩首式"军事行动、强行抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，呼吁包括埃克森 美孚(XOM.US)、雪佛龙(CVX.US)和康菲石油(COP.US)等美国油企投资数十亿美元以重建委内瑞拉能源 行业。 委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明原油储量，达3030亿桶。假若这些美国能源巨头响应特朗普呼吁、向委 内瑞拉投资数十亿美元以重振该国石油产量，对未来的油市可能将成为利空。从中长期来看，若美国扶 持的亲美政权成功上台，美国油企有望重返委内瑞拉市场 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment - A Goldman Sachs survey indicates that geopolitical factors are driving institutional investors' bearish sentiment on crude oil to near a decade-high level, with over 59% of respondents holding a bearish or slightly bearish view [1] - This sentiment level is close to historical lows recorded in January 2016, with only a slightly higher pessimism noted in April of the previous year when trade tensions escalated [1] - The proportion of institutional investors considering crude oil as their most preferred short position has reached an all-time high, further intensifying overall bearish sentiment [1] Group 2: Oil Price Forecast - Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and competitors, alongside slowing global demand growth, oil prices are projected to decline nearly 20% cumulatively by 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2020 [3] - The average forecast from major banks suggests that Brent crude oil prices, currently around $61 per barrel, may further decrease to approximately $59 per barrel by 2026 [3] Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Market Impact - Venezuela, holding the world's largest proven oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, could negatively impact future oil markets if U.S. energy companies invest billions to revive its oil production [4] - If a pro-U.S. regime is established in Venezuela, U.S. oil companies may return to the market, potentially increasing the country's oil exports by 3 million barrels per day, which could suppress long-term oil price increases [4] - Experts suggest that the future of Venezuela's oil production is likely to exert a bearish influence on the market, as any increase in output would add to the already ample global supply [6] Group 4: U.S. Government's Role - The Trump administration is considering a significant plan to dominate Venezuela's oil industry, which may include exerting control over the state oil company PDVSA and selling a substantial portion of its oil production [6] - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the U.S. aims to stabilize and grow Venezuelan oil production while facilitating the entry of major U.S. oil companies into the market [6] - However, the potential for increased production in Venezuela hinges on substantial investments and a stable political environment, which remains uncertain [7] Group 5: Investment Considerations - U.S. oil companies may weigh the necessity of investing billions in Venezuela against the backdrop of already ample global oil supply [7] - The stability of the Venezuelan government and the legal and financial frameworks are critical factors for U.S. energy giants, as energy investments typically span 30 years [7] - The possibility of a return to a regime similar to Maduro's, which previously nationalized oil assets, poses a significant risk for U.S. oil companies [7]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The crude oil price is in a weak and volatile state. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern due to factors such as high global crude oil floating storage, increased Middle - East exports, and concerns over demand, despite the OPEC+ decision to maintain the production plan and the unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories [1]. Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026, with the next meeting scheduled for February 1 [1]. - During the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude inventories declined more than expected, but refined product inventories increased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continued to rise [1]. - US crude production slightly increased and remained near the historical high, and the number of US rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - After the US - Ukraine talks, there were developments regarding the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there were statements about post - cease - fire troop deployments. Trump also warned India on Russian oil purchases [1]. - The crack spreads of refined products in Europe and the US were low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and had been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, leading to market concerns about crude oil demand [1]. - The global crude oil market had shown signs of digesting the restricted Venezuelan exports. The US government asked oil companies to invest in Venezuela, but the industry was cautious. Trump said Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [1]. 2.期现行情 - The futures price of the main crude oil futures contract 2602 on the day fell 2.02% to 416.2 yuan/ton, with a low of 414.1 yuan/ton and a high of 422.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 98 to 33,068 lots [2]. 3.基本面跟踪 - EIA raised the US crude production forecast for Q4 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, increased non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and raised global crude production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand for Q4 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and for 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and for 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that US crude inventories for the week ended January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels (expected to increase by 447,000 barrels), 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.186 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels (expected to increase by 2.109 million barrels). Cushing crude inventories increased by 728,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its October crude production was cut by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran [4]. - OPEC+ crude production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October, reaching 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude production for the week ended January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day and remained near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel weekly demands both decreased, driving the weekly supply of US crude products to decrease by 0.77% month - on - month [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, and concludes that most of these commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, international oil prices fell. The WTI 2 - month contract closed down $1.14 to $55.99 per barrel, a 2.00% decline; the Brent 3 - month contract closed down $0.74 to $59.96 per barrel, a 1.22% decline; SC2602 closed at 415.5 yuan per barrel, down 9.3 yuan per barrel, a 2.19% decline. The US - Venezuela oil import agreement may increase supply, and the trade flow may shift from the East to the West. Shipping is also affected, and short - term oil prices face pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE declined. Singapore's fuel oil supply is expected to be abundant in January, while the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak. The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the oil price fluctuations, and the domestic market may face additional pressure due to the increase in FU warehouse receipts [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE declined slightly. The inventory level of domestic refineries decreased, the social inventory increased, and the operating rate decreased. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is stable in the short - term, but future raw material supply is uncertain. The release of winter storage contracts by major refineries provides some support, and the asphalt price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed flat, EG2605 closed up 1.07%, and PX futures closed down 0.68%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A PX device in the Middle East will be shut down for maintenance. The decline in crude oil prices and the game between reality and expectation in the PX market may lead to a decline in PX/TA. The supply of ethylene glycol is slightly reduced, and the price is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber on the SHFE rose. The precipitation in the producing areas has eased, the raw material price is supported, the downstream tire demand is weak, and the policy is awaited. With minor fundamental contradictions and an improved macro - environment, the rubber price is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2273 yuan per ton. The domestic production in January is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume will decline. The demand for olefins has certain support. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, while the compressed MTO device profit may form a negative feedback. Methanol is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the price of polyolefins was reported. In January, the supply is expected to decrease slightly due to some temporary shutdowns and no new capacity. The demand is expected to recover in the first half of January and weaken in the second half. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. The supply remains high, the domestic demand slows down, and the 05 contract is at a large premium. The PVC price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [8]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on January 8, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. Market News - US President Trump announced that the US has reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude oil, which is expected to increase the US crude oil supply and cause the international oil price to fall on Wednesday [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [30][34][35]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report displays the spread trends of different contracts of multiple energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [42][44][47]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [58][60][62]. - **Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit trends of some products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - made ethylene glycol [68][70][71]. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Analyst Di Yilin, and Analyst Peng Haibo, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [73][74][75]. Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [78].

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is expected to enter a supply surplus cycle by 2026, with the IEA predicting a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day, leading to a systematic decline in oil price levels [1] Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - By 2026, the global oil market will officially transition into a supply surplus phase [1] - The anticipated surplus is projected to reach 3.84 million barrels per day according to IEA estimates [1] - A systematic downward adjustment in oil price levels is expected to be the main trend [1] Group 2: Sector Opportunities - Geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, and inventory fluctuations will still create short-term trading opportunities [1] - Structural opportunities are shifting focus from "oil prices" to "companies" [1] - High refining margins are expected to persist, benefiting the refining sector [1] Group 3: Specific Industry Insights - U.S. shale oil production is showing resilience around the $60 per barrel mark [1] - The expansion of LNG and rising electricity demand are driving increased mergers and acquisitions in the natural gas sector [1] - These factors represent key beneficiary directions in a low oil price environment [1]

| 112 > 國投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 ☆☆☆ | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 今日原油下行。地缘消息对油价的影响边际趋弱,当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库阶段,EIA,IEA,OPEC均预 估202601全球面临较大累库压力。美委局势难以提供持续性基本面支撑，且美国行动意在接管委石油资源，若 后续制裁放松，外资进入,委油产量甚至可能增加。综上,油价仍将受共需宽松格局主导,维持中枢下行趋 势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 受隔夜原油市场疲软拖累,今日燃料油跟随成本端大幅低开,整体维持弱势运行。当前市场交易重心仍集中于 地缘因素对原料端的犹动:委内瑞拉局势引发的供应波动属短期交易题材,其远期供应恢复 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 期货方面： 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存减幅超 预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量略有增加，仍位于历史最 高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常 大的进展"，英法乌签署意向声明拟在俄乌停火后派兵乌克兰，美国将提供包括情报和后勤等支援， 并且"承诺在俄罗斯发动攻击时为该部队提供支持"。不过特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限 制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。信实工业表态，其贾姆纳格尔炼油 厂在过去约三周内未收到任何俄罗斯石油，且预计1月份也不会有俄罗斯原油交付。欧美成品油裂解 价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，美国2025年12月ISM制造业指数小幅下降，已连续10个月 低于50，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局。 元旦前，全球原油市场已显示出消化委内瑞拉原油出口受限的迹象 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The styrene market is gradually shifting from a tight balance to a wide balance in January, with weak supply - demand drivers. The short - term EB2602 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 6700 - 6900 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6828 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the trading volume is 340567, up 85359; the long position of the top 20 holders is 353376 hands, down 7848 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 39597 hands, down 6094 hands; the short position of the top 20 holders is 392973 hands, down 1754 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts is 200 hands, unchanged. The closing price of the March contract is 6895 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 278675 hands, down 21449 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6792 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 848 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price is 858 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6575 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 7015 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 6725 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 6875 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 746 dollars/ton (unchanged), 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), 670 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars), and 430 dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan, Rotterdam, and the US Gulf are 661.17 dollars/ton (unchanged), 798 dollars/ton (up 34 dollars), and 274 cents/gallon (up 2 cents) respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5295 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and 5220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Conditions - The overall styrene operating rate is 70.23%, down 0.47%. The national styrene inventory is 171760 tons, up 800 tons; the total inventory at the main ports in East China is 13.23 tons, down 0.65 tons; the trade inventory at the main ports in East China is 7.73 tons, down 0.6 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 43.64% (down 8.92%), 69.9% (up 0.5%), 60.4% (up 1.8%), 36% (down 2%), and 80.52% (up 1.14%) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 26 to January 1, the styrene factory output was 35.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The operating rates of downstream EPS, PS, ABS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber changed from December 26 to January 1. As of December 25, the styrene factory inventory was 17.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%. As of January 5, the inventory at East China ports was 13.23 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%; the inventory at South China ports was 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.16%. On January 4, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 139.35 yuan/ton; on December 31, the integrated profit of styrene was 723.78 yuan/ton [2]