Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. Although there are factors such as potential restrictions on Russian oil exports and the outcome of Sino - US leaders' talks, the report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate in the near term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and will suspend production increase in Q1 2026. This will increase the supply pressure in Q4 2025 but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak consumption season is over, and market concerns about crude oil demand have arisen due to factors such as the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and exports from the Middle East are rising [1]. - The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. The future of Russian oil exports is uncertain, and India's attitude towards Russian oil imports is also divided [1]. - The Sino - US leaders' talks basically met market expectations, and bilateral relations have not changed fundamentally [1]. [期现行情] - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 fell 0.37% to 460.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 456.0 yuan/ton and a high of 465.8 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 828 to 27,991 lots [2]. [基本面跟踪] - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, raises the US crude oil production forecast for 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and adjusts the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 [3]. - OPEC and IEA have different adjustments to the global oil demand and supply growth rates for 2025 and 2026, and the oil supply surplus is intensifying [3]. - US EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the week ending October 31, 2025, and gasoline inventory decreased more than expected, while overall oil product inventories increased slightly [4]. - OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production reached a new high in the week ending October 31 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, 2.20% lower than the same period last year. The demand for gasoline and diesel also decreased [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, crude oil prices remained volatile. Oil prices rose on Friday due to reports of a potential US military attack on Venezuela, and OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. US commercial crude inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels due to a significant decline in net crude imports, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. European and American refinery profits rebounded this week. - Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure on crude oil supply release is high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining high total production, crude oil is expected to remain in a weak pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - Russia's Tuapse refinery stopped fuel exports after a drone attack on November 2nd [3]. - HSBC expects a supply surplus of 2.7 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 (previously 3 million barrels per day) and an average annual supply surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 2.4 million barrels per day) [3]. - Libya's oil minister aims to increase oil production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, with a target of 1.6 million barrels per day next year and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [4]. - Saudi Aramco set the official selling price for Arab Light crude oil in December, with a premium of $1 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average for Asia, $3.20 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index for the US, and $1.35 per barrel over the Brent crude oil settlement price for Northwest Europe [4]. b. Inventory - US EIA data for the week ending October 31st: Crude oil exports increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 700,000 barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.25% increase); the four - week average supply of refined oil products was 20.344 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels (a 0.12% increase); crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week; Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories were 30,000 barrels (previous value: 133,400 barrels); gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels (expected: - 1.14 million barrels, previous value: - 5.941 million barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels (expected: - 1.969 million barrels, previous value: - 3.362 million barrels) [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 5th, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels. Light distillate inventories decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventories decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [5]. - From October 23rd - 30th, the operating rate of domestic major refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both major and local refineries decreased [5]. c. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure on crude oil supply release is high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining high total production, crude oil is expected to remain in a weak pattern [6]. - According to data, from October 1st - 26th, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports were 1.89 million barrels. Kpler's preliminary data shows that Russia's average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices are in an upward phase, with an upcoming price adjustment expected on November 10, 2025, after a period of significant price fluctuations [1][3][5] - As of October 27, 2025, the gasoline and diesel prices have experienced a decline of 745 yuan and 715 yuan per ton respectively, marking a significant drop compared to previous lows [1][3] - The recent price adjustments show that gasoline prices have fallen to around 6.8 yuan per liter, with the overall trend indicating a recovery from earlier highs in January 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The current oil price adjustment cycle is characterized by a "super drop and rise" scenario, with the original price change rate showing a decrease, yet remaining positive at 3.45% [3][5] - The international oil prices have shown a slight decline, with WTI crude oil priced at $60.56 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.44 per barrel, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [3][5] - Despite recent support factors such as a decrease in U.S. oil inventories and new sanctions on Russia, concerns about global oil supply surplus remain strong, with forecasts suggesting a potential surplus of 190,000 to 300,000 barrels next year [5]

11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据显示美国原油和成品油去库幅 度超预期，整体油品库存继续减少。EIA月报预计2025年四季度全球石油库存增幅约260万桶/日，IEA 月报预测全球石油过剩幅度加剧。消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个 月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，伊拉克库尔德地区的原油出口重启，中东地区出口增 加。原油仍是供应过剩格局，不过美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油 企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司及其子公司，特朗普称取消与普京在布达佩斯的会面，俄罗斯 原油出口预期受限，美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级。美国总统特朗普称尚未决定是否对委内瑞拉境 内地面目标发动袭击。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成 新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。在欧美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度石油 企业态 ...

这一决定为OPEC+的增产计划踩下刹车。过去一个月，原油市场经历剧烈震荡，油价一度因供应过剩 担忧跌至近五年低点，随后又因美国对俄罗斯新制裁而大幅反弹。在暂停增产消息公布后，油价出现上 涨。布伦特原油一度升至每桶65美元以上，WTI原油在每桶61美元附近交易。 分析师认为，OPEC+此举既是对疲弱市场的妥协，也是在俄罗斯制裁影响不明朗情况下的策略性等 待。国际能源署（IEA）预测，当前季度全球日均原油供应过剩370万桶，摩根大通的估算为360万桶。 2025年以来，OPEC+为了保份额持续增产，叠加美国原油产量不断创出历史新高，导致全球原油库存 高企，过剩局面持续，从而令油价长期承压。基于此，OPEC+决定在12月增加产量13.7万桶/日后，将 在明年第一季度暂停增产计划，为动荡的原油市场注入一针稳定剂。 当地时间上周日，OPEC+在线上会议后表示，以沙特为首的八个成员国将在12月提高产量13.7万桶/ 日，这与10月和11月的增产幅度一致。但该组织同时宣布，考虑到季节性因素，将在明年1—3月暂停增 产。 在OPEC+增产的同时，美国原油产量也在不断攀升。根据EIA数据，7月美国原油产量达1360万桶/日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although China and the US, the two largest oil - consuming countries, have reached an agreement, it cannot reverse the supply - demand imbalance in the crude oil market or prevent oil prices from approaching the lowest level since the COVID - 19 pandemic. The market is still evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil producers. Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Venezuela, may impact oil prices. Short - term oil prices are more affected by geopolitical events. For trading, short - term operations are recommended in the range of 450 - 475, and long - term investors should wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil fluctuated. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 0.91% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $64.58 per barrel, down 0.52% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC main contract closed at 463.6 yuan per barrel, down 0.28% for the week. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and concerns about supply surplus pressured oil prices. There were also geopolitical events like the potential US strike on Venezuela and the easing of Sino - US relations, which made the oil price fluctuate [3]. - The World Bank predicts that the global crude oil daily supply surplus may reach 4 million barrels in 2026. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a daily supply surplus of 1.9 million barrels in the global crude oil market, and OPEC+ has been increasing production quotas, adding to the supply pressure [4]. - The head of Europe's largest refiner said the market underestimated the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, and some Indian refiners have suspended Russian crude oil purchases [4]. - The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed cooled on Friday, and the three major US stock indexes narrowed their gains [4]. 3.2 Related News - There were reports about the potential US military strike on Venezuela, which first pushed up oil prices but then prices fell after the White House's denial [3]. - The head of Europe's largest refiner said the market underestimated the impact of sanctions on Russia, and some Indian refiners' purchasing decisions were affected [4]. - Fed officials' statements on interest rates affected the market's expectation of a December rate cut [4]. 3.3 Outlook - The agreement between China and the US cannot change the supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The market is evaluating the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela remains tense. Short - term oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. Short - term operations are recommended in the range of 450 - 475, and long - term investors should wait and see [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all increased. For example, UK Brent Dtd increased by 2.25 to 87.41, with a growth rate of 2.65% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: EIA inventory and Cushing inventory data showed fluctuations. For example, EIA inventory decreased by 685.8 barrels to 41596.6 barrels on October 24, and Cushing inventory increased by 133.4 barrels to 2256.5 barrels on the same date [9][10]. 3.5持仓数据 - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of September 23, the net long positions increased by 4249 contracts to 102958 contracts [3][19]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of October 21, the net long positions decreased by 57085 contracts to 52521 contracts [21].

OPEC+决定在12月增加产量13.7万桶/日后，将在明年第一季度暂停增产计划，为动荡的原油市场注入一针稳 定剂，油价应声上涨。 周日，OPEC+在线上会议后表示，以沙特为首的八个成员国将在12月提高产量13.7万桶/日，这与10月和11月 的增产幅度一致。但该组织同时宣布，考虑到季节性因素，将在明年1-3月暂停增产。 这一决定为OPEC+的增产计划踩下刹车。过去一个月，原油市场经历剧烈震荡，油价一度因供应过剩担忧跌 至近五年低点，随后又因美国对俄罗斯新制裁而大幅反弹。在暂停增产消息公布后，油价出现上涨。布伦特原 油一度升至每桶65美元以上，WTI原油在每桶61美元附近交易。 | 资产 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 11 | 日内区间 | 52周区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油CFD | 64.65 04:59:59 | +0.28 | +0.43% | 63.81 - 65.15 | 58.40 - 82.60 | | UKOIL | | | | | | | WTI原油 | 61.40 07:50:51 | +0.42 | +0.69 ...

2025.11. 01 本文字数：780，阅读时长大约1分钟 加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师克罗夫特（Helima Croft）在一份报告中预测，除非有明确证据表明原油供应出 现中断，否则沙特及其欧佩克伙伴国不会大幅提高产量。 消息人士透露，目前OPEC+八大成员国沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特、阿曼、哈萨克斯坦和 阿尔及利亚正在考虑再次上调产能13.7万桶/日，同时暂停增产的可能性同样存在。 截至发稿时，欧佩克组织、俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克（Alexander Novak）的办公室，以及沙特政府媒体办公室尚未 对相关报道置评。 微信编辑 | 七三 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱： bianjibu@yicai.com 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 据媒体援引多位知情人士的话称，由于担心明年原油市场可能出现供应过剩，产油国联盟OPEC+正放缓夺回市 场份额的步伐。该组织很可能在周日达成协议，小幅上调12月的原油产量目标。 自今年4月开始释放限产产能以来，OPEC+已将原油产量目标累计上调逾270万桶/日（约占全球原油供应量的 2.5%）。 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ is slowing down its efforts to regain market share due to concerns about potential oversupply in the oil market next year [1] - The organization is likely to reach an agreement to slightly increase the crude oil production target for December [1] - Since April, OPEC+ has cumulatively raised its crude oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 2.5% of global oil supply [1] Group 2 - Disagreements have emerged among key oil-producing countries, particularly between Russia and Saudi Arabia regarding production levels [1] - Russia advocates for a moderate increase in production to avoid downward pressure on oil prices, while Saudi Arabia aims to significantly boost production to reclaim market share [1] - Oil prices fell to a five-month low of $60 per barrel on October 20 due to oversupply concerns but have since recovered to around $65 per barrel [1] Group 3 - RBC analyst Helima Croft predicts that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will not significantly increase production unless there is clear evidence of supply disruptions [2] - OPEC+ members are considering a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day while also contemplating the possibility of pausing further increases [2] - As of the report, there has been no comment from OPEC, Russian officials, or the Saudi government regarding these developments [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is slowing down its efforts to regain market share due to concerns about a potential oversupply in the oil market next year, with a likely agreement to slightly increase December's oil production target [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - Since April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased its oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 2.5% of global oil supply [1] - In the recent ministerial meeting, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although there are differing opinions among member countries [1] - Russia advocates for a moderate increase in production to avoid downward pressure on oil prices, while Saudi Arabia seeks to significantly boost production, potentially doubling or tripling the increase to a maximum of 548,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Concerns over oversupply led to a drop in international oil prices to a five-month low of $60 per barrel on October 20, but prices have since recovered to around $65 per barrel due to sanctions on Russia and optimistic trade negotiations [1] - RBC analyst Helima Croft predicts that unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners are unlikely to significantly increase production [2] - OPEC+ members are considering another increase of 137,000 barrels per day, while the possibility of pausing production increases also exists [2]