Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report: Supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on low-buying opportunities [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - For plastics, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. With limited further negative supply factors and improving demand from the agricultural film sector, the spot price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to low-buying opportunities [3]. - For PP, due to insufficient existing maintenance and new capacity release, the output continues to reach new highs. The industry's weak outlook restricts the rebound height. Attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and warehouse receipts [6]. Summary by Sections Plastic Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the Wenhua Chemical Index closed with three consecutive positive candles. Olefins were weaker than chemicals, but plastics were relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector. The L2601 fluctuated in the range of 7,243 - 7,455, with an amplitude of 212 points. The monthly closing price was 7,287, down 112 points from the previous month [11]. - **Basis and Position**: In the first half of August, the basis of North China 09 contract was repaired to near par. After the main contract shifted to 01 on August 15, the main contract was at a premium to the spot again. The position of the 01 contract remained around 400,000 lots, similar to the same period last year [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The difference between September and January contracts of plastics changed little. With the arrival of the peak season in September and the low 1 - 5 spread, it is recommended to consider positive arbitrage opportunities based on the strength of the downstream peak season. The LP spread continued to widen in August, and the long LP01 position should be held [15][17]. Plastic Supply - **Production**: This week's PE output was 620,000 tons (down 43,000 tons week-on-week), ending a six - week upward trend. The capacity utilization rate was 79%. From January to week 34, the cumulative year - on - year output growth rates of PE, LL, HD, and LD were +18%, 28%, 10%, and 15% respectively. The supply pressure of LD eased, while that of HD increased [20]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, 5.43 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production. As of now, 3.43 million tons have been put into operation. The remaining Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons) is planned to be put into production in October, and Exxon's (500,000 tons) non - standard device is expected to be put into operation in September [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import volume was 8.03 million tons (up 2.5% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 610,000 tons (up 21% year - on - year) [22]. Plastic Demand - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream PE operating rate was 40% (up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), and the agricultural film operating rate improved for six consecutive weeks. From January to July, the apparent PE consumption was 26.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.5% [25]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was $83.1 billion (up 1.2% year - on - year), and the proportion of exports to the US was 14% [27]. Plastic Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory decreased to 427,000 tons (down 75,000 tons week - on - week), and the enterprise inventory pressure eased. The social inventory was 560,000 tons (up 5,500 tons week - on - week). The current inventory pressure in the industrial chain is not large, and the downstream raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [30]. Plastic Profit - The current weighted gross profit of LL is at a neutral level compared to the same period, and the cost drive is not strong [33]. PP Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the PP price showed a unilateral decline. The PP2601 fluctuated in the range of 6,967 - 7,163, with an amplitude of 196 points. The final closing price was 6,974, down 140 points from the previous month [36]. - **Spread Analysis**: Affected by profit pressure and the leap month, the peak season started slowly this year, and downstream orders remained weak. The 9 - 1 spread of PP continued the reverse arbitrage trend in August, and the 1 - 5 spread is expected to continue the reverse arbitrage trend [41]. - **Arbitrage**: The MTO disk profit is slowly recovering [42]. PP Supply - **Production**: This week, the PP output was 810,000 tons (up 23,000 tons week - on - week), increasing for four consecutive weeks. The total estimated output of polypropylene in China next week is 813,000 tons, continuing the upward trend [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The current weighted gross profit of PP remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The PDH gross profit has significantly recovered, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [46]. PP Import and Export - From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import volume was 1.92 million tons (down 8% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 1.83 million tons (up 29% year - on - year). In July, PP became a net importer. It is expected to become a net exporter again in the future [51]. PP Demand - The downstream operating rate of PP remains at around 50%. From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 13.3% [52]. PP Inventory - The inventory of enterprises and traders is being reduced from a high level [53]. Strategies - **Plastic Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Try to buy at low prices. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,500] for L2601 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage position [5]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [5]. - **PP Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The valuation is low but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Focus on the range of [6,900 - 7,150] for PP2601 [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 position [8]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, sell - hedging can be considered [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a diversified asset allocation strategy that aims for absolute returns rather than relying on a single asset class or index, utilizing various strategies across multiple asset types to enhance overall returns and reduce volatility [1]. Group 1: Equity Strategies - The equity strategy involves a high allocation to stock index options (150% to 200% position), utilizing a combination of long and short options to manage risk and capture upside potential [2]. - A high-dividend stock rotation strategy is employed with a 10% allocation, focusing on a diversified portfolio of around 100 high-dividend stocks to achieve excess returns over dividend indices, targeting an annualized excess return of 5% to 10% [3]. Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond strategy has been cleared out due to high valuations, with a focus on low-risk, fundamentally sound bonds previously held to enhance returns through rotation [4][5]. Group 3: Commodity Futures - A 20% allocation to commodity futures is based on value investing principles, targeting commodities at historical lows, particularly those below production costs, to minimize risk and enhance long-term returns [6]. Group 4: Arbitrage Strategies - The remaining capital is allocated to various low-risk arbitrage strategies, which contribute significantly to overall returns, with recent performance showing a 9% weekly return and a 46% annual return, exceeding expectations [7].

Risk Warning - The author advises against engaging with Hyper due to its poor depth and lack of official support [1] - Arbitrageurs targeting small profits (around 10%) are cautioned about Hyper's significant risks [1] Exchange-Specific Issues - Hyper's depth is very poor [1] - The official stance is that they do not manage Hyper, indicating a lack of oversight [1]

DeFi & Crypto Trading - DeFi 的入门是 AMM (Automated Market Maker) 公式，而套利的入门是永续合约 [1] - Crypto 交易员需要站在项目方或攻击者的角度思考 [1] Investment & Risk - 市场可能表现平淡，但仍存在机会 [1] - "懂的越多，亏的越多" 是一种自嘲，并非真实情况 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of "new deposit" schemes in Hong Kong's insurance financing market, which promise high returns but carry significant risks related to interest rate fluctuations and non-guaranteed dividends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - A "new deposit" scheme marketed as a "seven-year doubling" plan offers potential returns of around 1.2 million HKD from an initial investment of 120,000 HKD, leveraging bank loans [1]. - The current low interest rates in Hong Kong, with HIBOR dropping below 0.05% earlier this year, create an environment where borrowing costs are low, making these insurance financing schemes appear attractive [9]. - Insurance agents promote these products as high-yield investments, often claiming annual returns exceeding 10% [4][11]. Group 2: Risks and Concerns - The reliance on non-guaranteed dividends raises concerns about the actual returns, as recent disclosures show lower-than-expected dividend realization rates [1][2]. - Complaints regarding these insurance products have increased significantly, with issues related to sales misrepresentation and inadequate assessments of clients' repayment capabilities [3][15]. - The complexity of these financing schemes means they are only suitable for investors with a strong risk tolerance, as they involve multiple risks including interest rate volatility and liquidity issues [3][13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance financing market has seen a surge in popularity, with some banks experiencing a backlog in loan approvals due to high demand [8]. - The competitive landscape has led to insurance companies raising expected long-term returns to over 7%, further enticing investors despite the underlying risks [11]. - The combination of low borrowing costs and high projected returns has created a perception of increased arbitrage opportunities, although this is accompanied by significant uncertainties [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of "new deposit" schemes in Hong Kong's insurance financing market, which promise high returns but carry significant risks related to interest rate fluctuations and non-guaranteed dividends [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current low interest rate environment has led to the popularity of insurance financing products, marketed as offering annual returns exceeding 10% [2][5][10]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) has been low, dropping below 0.05% in June 2023, which has made borrowing costs attractive for investors [10][11]. - The insurance products often promise high returns due to a lag in adjusting the demonstration rates, creating an illusion of substantial arbitrage opportunities [10][13]. Group 2: Product Structure - Insurance financing involves leveraging bank loans to purchase insurance policies, where the policy's cash value serves as collateral [6][9]. - Investors typically pay a small percentage (10-20%) as a down payment, with the remainder financed through bank loans [6][9]. - The structure involves three main parties: the policyholder, the bank, and the insurance company, with the potential for profit derived from the difference between the policy's returns and the loan interest [6][9]. Group 3: Risks and Complaints - There are multiple risks associated with these products, including interest rate risk, dividend realization uncertainty, and liquidity issues [3][4][14]. - Complaints regarding insurance financing have increased significantly, with issues related to sales misrepresentation and inadequate assessments of clients' repayment capabilities [4][16]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued warnings about the need for compliance in sales practices to prevent misleading promotions [4][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's investment journey over the past decade, highlighting the challenges and learning experiences faced in the stock and fund markets, as well as the evolution of investment strategies. Group 1: Investment Experience - The author began investing in funds in 2012, with initial purchases made through banks due to concerns about online transactions [1][2]. - Various funds were purchased over the years, including popular ones like Huaxia Fuxing and Jiashi Service Value, contributing to significant returns [2]. - The author experienced both gains and losses, with notable early investments in stocks like Gree Electric and Wuliangye, which yielded substantial profits [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - The author emphasizes the importance of adapting investment strategies over time, particularly after joining the Jisilu community, which provided valuable insights and improved annual returns [10][11]. - A detailed performance summary shows a significant increase in average annual returns post-2019, with a peak of 48% in 2019 and consistent growth in subsequent years [11]. - The author acknowledges the challenges of value investing, noting that while theoretically sound, it is difficult to implement effectively for average investors [9]. Group 3: Market Insights - The article discusses the volatility of the stock market, with the author recalling experiences during major market downturns and the psychological impact on investment decisions [3][5]. - The author reflects on the pitfalls of relying solely on value investing, citing specific instances of losses in companies like Huaxia Happiness and Erkang Pharmaceutical due to market misjudgments [9][12]. - The narrative illustrates the evolving nature of investment strategies, highlighting the need for continuous learning and adaptation in response to market changes [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of "new deposit" schemes in Hong Kong's insurance financing market, which promise high returns but carry significant risks, particularly due to interest rate fluctuations and reliance on non-guaranteed dividends [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - A new type of insurance financing scheme, marketed as "new deposits" or "high-level financial products," is gaining popularity, claiming annual returns exceeding 10% [8]. - These schemes involve taking out bank loans to purchase insurance policies, with the policy's cash value used as collateral [8][11]. - The current low interest rates in Hong Kong have created an environment where these financing schemes appear attractive, despite underlying risks [13][14]. Group 2: Financial Mechanics - The financing process typically requires the investor to pay 10% to 20% of the premium upfront, with the remainder financed through a bank loan [8]. - The expected returns are based on the difference between the insurance policy's promised returns and the bank's loan interest rate, which can create an "arbitrage" opportunity [8][11]. - For example, a policy with a total premium of $1 million may require an upfront payment of $181,000, with a loan covering the rest, leading to potential high annualized returns if conditions are favorable [11] . Group 3: Risks and Complaints - The article emphasizes multiple risks associated with these financing schemes, including interest rate risk, dividend realization uncertainty, and liquidity issues [4][19][20]. - Complaints related to these products have surged, with issues such as misrepresentation by sales agents and inadequate assessments of clients' financial capabilities being reported [6][21][22]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued warnings regarding the compliance of banks and insurance companies in promoting these products, highlighting the need for proper risk disclosures [6][22].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

#Crypto囤 BTC 跑赢所有是部分真相，熬鹰的这个版本也是真相。推荐阅读。相对来说，我更同意熬鹰的版本。因为他离我的入场时间轴更近，时间点决定不同的真相。下面是 21 年进场、DeFi + 套利党（包括我自己）的版本真相：1. 在 21 年如果你 fomo 进场，梭哈全部身家买入 btc，4 万 - 12 万。你的身家翻了 3 倍，恭喜你。2. 上半年算了下，整体仓位大约 4 年 100 倍。单个策略角度统计无回撤；没有被 rug 过；赌博仓位和次数都很少，可以忽略；3. 利润不止套利直接相关，小部分还来自：前期的产品设计外包、技术外包，后来也有策略落地、代练等一些外快收入。4. 我的收益水平，在我平时交流的群体里，说实话是 中游。风险控制水平，上游。综合能力，中上游。行业里大部分技术方向，我都懂一点。5. 如果我能早一年入圈，我有完全的把握，收益再 x3～x10。因为我错过了 Luna，当时还在打工，太菜太嫩了。所有套利党都知道 Luna 意味着什么，那是 10 年难遇 —— 改变命运的机会。大部分我认识的套利人，都从 Luna 赚到了 10M 人民币以上。6. 我们这一批 20、21 年 DeFi ...