聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-30 成本端支撑与情绪提振，短期小幅反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6453元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为6274元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6300 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（+62）， LL华东基差为-53元/吨（+12）， PP华东基差为-134元/吨（+18）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（-1.2%），PP开工率为76.9%（-2.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为73.7元/吨（+166.3），PP油制生产利润为-426.3元/吨（+166.3），PDH制PP生产 利润为-848.4元/吨（-32.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为90.9元/吨（+16.1），PP进口利润为-295.6元/吨（+16.4），PP出口利润为-18.7美元/吨（-2.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.7%（-0.3%），PP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-18 供需两端持续承压，价格反弹乏力 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6479元/吨（-64），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为6450 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+14），LL 华东基差为101元/吨（+64）， PP华东基差为-54元/吨（+2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-100.0元/吨（+5.1），PP进口利润为-268.1元/吨（+4.9），PP出口利润为-12.1美元/吨（-0.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端12月PE总体检修量级不高，后期计划检修量亦相对有限，PE开工预期持续回升，且巴斯夫50万吨 FDPE新装置预期年底投产，供应宽松压力持续；需求端，PE下游整体开工继续下滑，其中农膜开工进入淡季，棚 膜需求 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand in the polyolefin market continues to be weak, and the market is oscillating weakly. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in the start - up rate and the approaching of the demand off - season, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, with inventory accumulating and the demand side lacking follow - up [1][2][3]. - The recommended strategy is to remain on the sidelines for single - side trading, with the market expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread on the L01 - 05 contract when the price is high. For inter - variety trading, narrow the L - P price spread when it is high [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6643元/吨（-31），PP主力合约收盘价为6275元/吨（-12）；LL华北现货为6620元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为6750元/吨（-60），PP华东现货为6310元/吨（-40）；LL华北基差为 - 23元/吨（-9），LL华东基差为107元/吨（-29），PP华东基差为35元/吨（-28） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）；PE油制生产利润为202.2元/吨（-107.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 497.8元/吨（-107.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 568.5元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data summary provided for this section in the given content. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为59.3元/吨（-70.0），PP进口利润为 - 273.0元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为 - 22.4美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, the social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the absolute inventory level was relatively high compared to the same period. The LLDPE social inventory also increased further during the week. For PP, the inventory continued to accumulate [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE**: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The downstream demand is in the transition period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat month - on - month. The overall demand follows up slowly. Multiple PE plants are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate decreases slightly, with the supply pressure expected to ease slightly. New PP production capacity is being released. The upstream production inventory increases slightly, the inventory in the middle - stream decreases, and the downstream rigid demand procurement increases. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH plants increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyze the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based and PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [16][19][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compare the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [26][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Analyze the import and export profits of LL and PP, including LL import profit, LL price differences in different regions, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and price differences of PP homopolymer injection molding in different regions [39][52][59] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP films, injection molding, as well as the production gross profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP films [56][63][70] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Include the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [72][76][81]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a pattern of strong supply and demand. New production capacities are being released, and maintenance devices are restarting, leading to a significant increase in production. Although social inventories are accumulating, they are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [4]. - The PP market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge, with enterprises and traders' inventories accumulating, while downstream maintains low inventories. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the peak season [8]. - The propylene market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price trend is more likely to be range - bound. In August, the weak pattern of the propylene market is difficult to change, and the monthly average price is expected to fluctuate around 6350 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic Market - **This Week's Review**: The L2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7251, 7344], with an opening price of 7312 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7290 yuan/ton. The market followed cost and sentiment for range - bound fluctuations. The far - month L2601 contract was firm [3][16]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Production is expected to increase by 1.5 tons week - on - week. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Social inventories are accumulating but are still at a relatively low level. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks [4]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The L2509 contract should focus on the range of [7200 - 7350]. Hold the long LP09 arbitrage. Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [6]. 3.2 PP Market - **This Week's Review**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7047, 7108], with an opening price of 7098 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7062 yuan/ton. The market followed macro - sentiment fluctuations, with significantly reduced volatility and a downward - shifting center of gravity. The fundamentals showed little supply - demand contradiction, with both supply and demand being weak [7][55]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge [8]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The PP2509 contract should focus on the range of [7000 - 7200]. Wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Propylene Market - **This Week's Review**: The PL2601 contract fluctuated in the range of [6416, 6555], with an opening price of 6480 yuan/ton and a closing price of 6451 yuan/ton [10][83]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: A new propylene plant in Ningbo has produced products and plans to export. A large number of propylene shipments may enter the market in the short term, suppressing the US dollar market price. The demand side has seen some improvement in production enthusiasm. The market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks at the current low price level. The PL2601 contract should focus on the range of [6300 - 6500]. Hold the long PP - PL01 spread arbitrage [12]. 3.4 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Review**: The overall weekly increase was PVC > polyolefin = commodity > energy - chemical. Coking coal continued its upward trend, and PVC was more affected by the cost - side coal. WTI oil prices fell below the key support level, and the oil - chemical sector was weak [13]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff dynamics and domestic anti - involution policy changes [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View of the Report - The previous macro - level positive factors have been digested, market sentiment has weakened, and the trading atmosphere is poor. The polyolefin market has entered a correction phase. The upstream petrochemical plants are in the maintenance season, with high maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and leads to a slight reduction in production inventory. The international oil price and propane price are weakly sorted. The production profit of PDH - made PP is acceptable, and its开工 rate is relatively high, while the cost - side support is weak. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the start - up of agricultural film at the bottom and rising, the start - up of plastic weaving decreasing, and other downstream starts remaining stable, mainly for rigid - demand procurement [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Prices and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7350 yuan/ton (- 37), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7118 yuan/ton (- 27), the LL spot price in North China is 7290 yuan/ton (- 10), the LL spot price in East China is 7370 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP spot price in East China is 7080 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL basis in North China is - 60 yuan/ton (+ 27), the LL basis in East China is 20 yuan/ton (+ 37), and the PP basis in East China is - 38 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE start - up rate is 81.1% (+ 2.1%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.9% (+ 0.0%) [1] - **Production Profits**: The PE oil - made production profit is - 44.6 yuan/ton (- 35.4), the PP oil - made production profit is - 554.6 yuan/ton (- 35.4), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 432.7 yuan/ton (+ 0.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 23.3 yuan/ton (+ 21.0), the PP import profit is - 441.0 yuan/ton (+ 44.2), and the PP export profit is 22.3 US dollars/ton (- 10.1) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+ 0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.7% (+ 0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 41.1% (- 0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.8% (+ 0.0%) [1] Market Analysis - The previous macro - level positive factors have been digested, and the market sentiment has weakened. Polyolefin markets are in a correction phase due to the high maintenance losses during the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, which eases supply pressure with a slight reduction in production inventory. The cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].