Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.2 billion, 22.0 billion, and 24.8 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4]. - The company has shown a stable market share and steady growth in business volume, supported by ongoing digital transformation and cost reduction efforts [4]. - The report highlights the potential for performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to the "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 248.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while gross profit was 16.8 billion, down 31.5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 6.8% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 5.3 billion, a decrease of 49.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.1% [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 126.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a gross profit of 7.4 billion, down 43.3% year-on-year [2]. Operational Strategy Summary - The company is focused on optimizing its franchise express network and enhancing its logistics ecosystem through digitalization and automation [3]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company has doubled the number of grid warehouses to 1,926 and has 468 collection and distribution centers, improving operational efficiency [3]. - The company is actively deploying drones and unmanned vehicles for last-mile delivery, with ongoing promotions in eight provinces [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for YTO Express [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.90% [3] - The business volume grew steadily, with a total of 14.863 billion parcels delivered in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.79% [3] - The decline in single-ticket revenue due to price wars was a significant factor in the decrease in net profit [3][4] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with single-ticket costs decreasing from 2.11 yuan to 2.02 yuan, a reduction of 4.51% [4] - The company is focusing on improving service quality, with a significant reduction in lost parcels and false sign-offs [5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's single-ticket revenue in H1 2025 was 2.19 yuan, down 6.27% from the previous year [3] - The gross profit per single ticket decreased by 25.34% year-on-year, from 0.23 yuan to 0.17 yuan [4] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.98 billion yuan, 4.66 billion yuan, and 5.15 billion yuan, respectively [5][10] Market Position and Strategy - YTO Express's market share increased from 15.2% to 15.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its reverse logistics business, which has seen a growth of over 112% [5] - Regulatory attention on price wars is expected to ease competitive pressures, potentially improving profitability [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 58.794 billion yuan [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.50 yuan, respectively [5][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are projected to be 14.9X, 12.7X, and 11.5X [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is undergoing a significant "anti-involution" movement, driven by government regulations and the need to stabilize pricing and service quality in the face of intense competition [2][3][5] Group 1: Background and Context - The phrase "8 mao fa quanguo" (0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery) symbolizes extreme low-price competition in the express delivery sector, which is now being phased out due to recent anti-involution efforts [2] - The central economic work conference in July 2023 emphasized the need to regulate "involutionary" competition across various industries, including express delivery [2][3] - The State Post Bureau has taken a firm stance against "involutionary" competition, aiming to improve service quality and contribute to a unified national market [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Starting from July 18, 2023, the minimum price for express delivery in Yiwu, Zhejiang, was raised by 0.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan, with Guangdong following suit on August 4, 2023, increasing the minimum price to 1.4 yuan [2][10] - The new regulations are part of a broader legal framework, including the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Price Law, aimed at curbing harmful price competition [3][5] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The express delivery industry has experienced a decline in average prices, with the average price dropping to 2 yuan in 2024, and prices in key areas like Yiwu and Guangdong falling below 1 yuan [6] - The industry faces overcapacity and intensified competition, exacerbated by a slowdown in e-commerce growth, leading to fierce customer resource competition [6][7] Group 4: Impact on Stakeholders - The current anti-involution measures are expected to primarily affect e-commerce clients' logistics costs rather than directly impacting end consumers [8][10] - The new pricing regulations are seen as a way to ensure that express delivery companies can maintain profitability while adhering to legal standards [11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The anti-involution movement is anticipated to expand nationwide, with other regions like Fujian, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Beijing, and Hebei expressing intentions to follow suit [11] - The focus on pricing regulation is just one aspect of the broader goal to avoid homogenized competition, with technology upgrades and service innovation being crucial for future growth [11]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced significant growth in volume, with July 2025 seeing 16.4 billion parcels delivered, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a total of 112.05 billion parcels from January to July, up 18.7% year-on-year [1] - The growth is driven by the trend towards smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return policies, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% growth for the entire year [1] - Major players in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong, reported year-on-year volume increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025, with year-to-date increases of 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% [1] - SF Express led the industry with a 33.7% year-on-year increase in volume for July 2025, attributed to its operational strategies and incentives for frontline staff [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new VAT policies for express delivery services, effective immediately, which will impact revenue collection for express companies [1] - Industry average revenue per parcel decreased to 7.36 yuan in July 2025, down 5.33% year-on-year and 1.76% month-on-month, influenced by the trend towards smaller packages and ongoing price wars [1] - However, there are indications of potential price recovery in August 2025 due to a shift away from aggressive competition [1][2] Company Insights - Key players in the express delivery sector include ZTO Express, SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO International Express, all of which are listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange [3] - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that franchise express companies may see performance recovery in the context of reduced competition [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total volume of 164.0 billion parcels in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total parcel volume reached 1,120.5 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.7%, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% for the entire year [1] - The growth is driven by the trend of smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return policies [1] Group 2 - In the e-commerce express segment, major players such as YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express reported year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025 [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, their respective growth rates were 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% [1] - SF Express achieved a year-on-year growth of 33.7% in July 2025 and 26.9% for the first seven months, attributed to the implementation of operational activation strategies and increased incentives for frontline operations [1] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced new VAT policies for express delivery services, effective immediately, stating that express companies will pay VAT based on "collection and delivery services" [1] - According to Guohai Securities, the industry average revenue per parcel in July 2025 was 7.36 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.33% and a month-on-month decline of 1.76% [2] - The ongoing trend of smaller packages and price wars are impacting revenue per parcel, although there are indications of potential price recovery in August due to a shift away from intense competition [2] Group 4 - The report highlights the potential for recovery in performance for franchise express companies amid the backdrop of reduced competition [2] - The express delivery sector is seeing a narrowing of price declines, with expectations of a slowdown in competitive pressure [2] - The focus remains on the performance growth of time-sensitive express delivery leaders and the valuation recovery opportunities in the e-commerce express segment [2] Group 5 - Related Hong Kong-listed express delivery companies include ZTO Express (02057), SF Holding (06936), SF Express City (09699), JD Logistics (02618), and YTO International Express (06123) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a decline in single ticket revenue due to the trend of smaller packages and ongoing price wars, although there may be a recovery in prices in August under the backdrop of reduced competition [1][2]. Industry Overview - In July 2025, the express delivery industry reported a single ticket revenue of 7.36 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.33% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.76% [1][2]. - The growth rate of express delivery business volume in July 2025 was 15.1%, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 8.3% and social consumer retail sales at 3.7% [2]. Regional Analysis - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of express delivery business volume in different regions were as follows: Class 1 regions at +14.2%, Class 2 regions at +16.8%, and Class 3 regions at +28.0% [2]. - The year-on-year growth rates of single ticket revenue in these regions were: Class 1 at -4.7%, Class 2 at -7.2%, and Class 3 at -12.1% [2]. Company Performance - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of express delivery business volume for major companies were: YTO Express at +20.81%, Yunda Express at +7.56%, Shentong Express at +11.90%, and SF Express at +33.69% [3]. - The year-on-year changes in single ticket revenue for these companies were: YTO Express at -7.14%, Yunda Express at -3.54%, Shentong Express at -1.50%, and SF Express at -14.02% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a narrowing decline in express delivery prices in July, indicating a stronger-than-expected effort to combat "involution" in the industry, leading to a temporary easing of competitive pressure. The outlook remains positive for leading express delivery companies with confirmed performance growth and potential valuation recovery opportunities in e-commerce logistics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year, with SF Express leading the growth at 33.7% [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 1,120.5 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% for the entire year [1]. - The e-commerce express delivery sector saw significant growth, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting year-on-year increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9 in the first seven months of 2025, up by 1.7 compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the market shares of leading e-commerce express companies were as follows: Zhongtong at 19.5%, YTO at 16.0%, Yunda at 13.2%, Shentong at 12.9%, and Jitu at 11.1%, all showing an increase from Q1 [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Revenue Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue in July 2025 grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per ticket decreased by 5.3% [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the industry's revenue increased by 9.9%, with a 7.4% decline in average revenue per ticket [3]. - The decline in average revenue per ticket is seen as a sign of reduced price competition, supported by regulatory efforts to combat "involution" in the industry [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the ongoing "anti-involution" measures will effectively ease competitive pressures in the industry, leading to a recovery in e-commerce express delivery profitability in the second half of the year [4]. - Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with a focus on regulatory strength from the postal administration [4].

国泰海通主要观点如下： 7月价格降幅收窄，快递"反内卷"力度超预期，短期竞争压力趋缓，中长期继续保障良性竞争 7月快递件量同比+15.1%;顺丰深化落实激活经营，业务量同比+33.7%，增速持续领跑 1)全行业：2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件，同比+15.1%;2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿件，同比 +18.7%。小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对 2025年全年件量增速超8%的预测。2)电商快递：圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比 +20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%;1-7月业务量分别同比+21.6%/+15.1%/+19.3%。3)直营快递：顺丰2025年7月业务 量同比+33.7%;1-7月业务量同比+26.9%，得益于落实激活经营策略，加大对前线业务的授权与激励，顺 丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 行业集中度持续集中，头部公司Q2市场份额环比提高 2022年初到2024年末，由于政策监管下价格竞争相对温和，份额向头部集中较缓慢。1)全行业：2025年 1-7月快递行业CR8为86.9，同比提升1.7，反映出2025年 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国海快递发布研报称，7月快递业务量增速与实物网上零售额增速形成剪刀差， 2025年快递小件化趋势延续，催化快递包裹同比快速增长。行业价格战7月仍延续，但8月反内卷背景 下，单票价格或有所修复。鉴于快递行业多条主线均存在布局的机会，维持快递行业"推荐"评级。加盟 快递在反内卷背景下，业绩有望修复，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(002120.SZ)、圆通速递 (600233.SH)、中通快递-W(02057)。重点关注价值股顺丰控股(002352.SZ)。 ①量，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递业务量同比增速分别为+14.2%/+16.8%/+28.0%， 非产粮区业务量同比增速高于产粮区。②价，2025年7月，一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递单票收入 同比增速分别为-4.7%/-7.2%/-12.1%。价格竞争主战场有向非产粮区转移趋势：1)非产粮区业务量增速 高于产粮区;2)产粮区多年竞争，价格与利润空间已近极限;3)非产粮区件量提升有望改善公司回程装载 率，有利于全网成本节降。 ①量，2025年7月，快递行业业务量同比增速(15.1%)>实物网上零售额同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express reported its Q2 2025 earnings, achieving a revenue of 11.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while adjusted net profit was 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, meeting expectations [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.847 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, indicating a recovery in parcel volume growth [2] - The adjusted net profit of 2.053 billion yuan in Q2 represents a decline of 27% year-on-year, with profit per parcel dropping to 0.21 yuan, down 0.12 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of price wars [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase driven by a reversal of the previous competitive environment, with both top-down and bottom-up pressures for price hikes [2] - The linkage between Guangdong and Yiwu demonstrates a commitment to eliminating price disparities, which is expected to support delivery fees and stabilize the industry [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting adjusted net profits of 8.993 billion, 9.527 billion, and 10.689 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11%, 6%, and 12% [2] - The average valuation of comparable companies in the industry is higher than that of ZTO Express, leading to a maintained "buy" rating despite the downward adjustment in profit expectations [2]