Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price lacks effective drivers and remains in a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session price was 13,775 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the night - session price was 20,050 yuan/ton; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.96 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,050 lots, a decrease of 200,500 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 854,338 lots, a decrease of 9,073 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,335 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,023 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,211, a decrease of 62 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 301 with no change; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, with no change, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,204 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,212 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.25 cents or - 1.63% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of cotton has changed little, mostly for the rigid - demand procurement of textile enterprises, and the overall basis has remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the overall offers are few, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the basis of 2024/25 Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 and above, for self - pick - up in the inland; the 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was traded at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The market of pure - cotton yarn has shown little change recently, and the yarn prices have remained stable. The cash - flow losses of inland textile enterprises exceed 500 yuan/ton, the downstream demand is sluggish, and textile enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains cold. Currently, manufacturers are mostly looking forward to the start of autumn orders in July. The domestic sales are light, with few inquiries. Some weaving factories reported that they have been on business trips to visit customers recently but have received few orders. Individual weaving factories reported that they have no orders and face great operating pressure in July, considering further production cuts [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. The higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton put pressure on ICE cotton, but external factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices provided support for ICE cotton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Optimistic sentiment drives the cotton futures price to fluctuate and rise [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 had a closing price of 13,845 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.62% and a daily increase of 0.29%. Its trading volume was 250,977 lots (down 833 from the previous day), and the open interest was 875,506 lots (up 11,714) [1]. - CY2509 had a closing price of 20,170 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32% and a daily increase of 0.22%. Its trading volume was 7,428 lots (down 1,999), and the open interest was 21,860 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 had a price of 69.32 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.81% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,302 sheets (down 32), and the effective forecast was 295 sheets (unchanged) [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 2 sheets (unchanged), and the effective forecast was 3 sheets (down 1) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 15,010 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) [1]. - Cotton in Shandong was priced at 15,115 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan (0.61%) [1]. - Cotton in Hebei was priced at 15,018 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan (0.72%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,109 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan (0.59%) [1]. - The international cotton index M was 76.27 cents/pound, up 1 cent (0.71%) [1]. - Pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,933 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.04%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spot trading was mostly sluggish, with a strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Partial basis - locked transactions occurred, and the overall basis remained stable. The sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5) was CF09 + 1300 - 1600, with some low - price supplies at 1250 - 1300 and corps supplies at 1650 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck changed little [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn stopped falling and rebounded, with little change in the mainstream price. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, but the acceptance was average. The pure - cotton fabric market remained sluggish, with few recent orders and slow shipment. The performance of home textile grey fabrics was also worse than before, and many weaving factories in Nantong had no new orders and continued to reduce production [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, benefiting from the overall optimistic market sentiment. The market was waiting for the USDA's area outlook and quarterly inventory report early on Monday [1][2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory showing a mixed picture. The basis is bullish as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is bearish according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market trend shows a bullish signal on the disk, but the main position is bearish. Overall, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export rush period, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: USDA's June report shows that for the 25/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. ICAC's June report indicates that in the 25/26 season, the global production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. In May, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.21 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. China imported 40,000 tons of cotton in May, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67%. The Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season in China is a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,020 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1300 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season shows an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: US cotton has a slight rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. The financial market has generally turned optimistic, and the Sino - US trade dispute has been temporarily put on hold. The center of Zhengzhou cotton is slowly rising, and the upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: It shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of cotton in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2025/26, with detailed data and month - on - month changes [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the global cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory from 2017 to 2024 [14]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 2024/25 to 2025/26 seasons includes data on beginning inventory, sown area, yield, production, import, consumption, and ending inventory [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The USDA June report shows that for the 2025/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. The ICAC June report indicates that for the same period, the production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 production at 625 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 823 million tons [5]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,883 yuan, with a basis of 1273 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season is 823 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - The 20 - day moving average of the cotton futures price is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. - The main positions in the futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5]. - The US cotton has a slight rebound, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. Considering that the textile industry has entered the off - season, the upward momentum of the 09 main contract will not be strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 13,600 - 13,700 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period in the future, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamental analysis shows a neutral situation overall, with mixed signals from production, consumption, and inventory data from different sources. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bearish. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered for the 09 main contract due to the off - season in the textile industry [5]. - Bullish factors are the reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the futures price near historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in foreign trade orders, and increased inventory [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Data**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2547.2 million tons (a decrease of 17.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast), consumption is 2563.8 million tons (a decrease of 7 million tons), and the total import is 975.8 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons), and the total export is 975.1 million tons [11][12]. - **ICAC Data**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2600 million tons, and consumption is 2570 million tons [5]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons [5][16]. - **Customs Data**: In May, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data - The main positions in the cotton futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5].

Industry - The industry being reported on is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was dated June 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory [7] - The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory. It is expected that autumn orders will start later than usual [7] - **Macro and Market Analysis**: The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] 2. Industry News - In May, China's yarn production was 1.951 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; and chemical fiber production was 7.349 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From January to May, cumulative yarn production was 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; cumulative cloth production was 12.63 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; and cumulative chemical fiber production was 35.037 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral situation. The 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory data from different organizations show a balanced supply - demand relationship. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) 6 - month report indicates a production of 2547.2 million tons, consumption of 2563.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1672.1 million tons. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) 6 - month report shows a production of 2600 million tons and consumption of 2570 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture in May for the 25/26 year estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 853 million tons [5]. - In terms of basis, the spot 3128b national average price is 14,891, with a basis of 1366 (09 contract), showing a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Regarding inventory, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 annual forecast of ending inventory of 853 million tons is a bearish factor [5]. - On the disk, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - In terms of expectations, the Sino - US negotiations have not brought specific benefits to the textile industry. The textile industry has entered the off - season of consumption. The 09 main contract faces significant resistance around 13,600, and it is expected to consolidate horizontally in the short - term within the range of 13,400 - 13,600 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple reports from different institutions show the supply - demand situation of cotton in the 25/26 year. Customs data shows that in May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 10 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. - **Basis**: The spot 3128b national average price is 14,891, with a basis of 1366 (09 contract), indicating a premium to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 annual forecast of ending inventory is 853 million tons [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing [5]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US negotiations have no specific benefits for the textile industry. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the 09 main contract will consolidate horizontally in the short - term within the 13,400 - 13,600 range [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Production and Consumption Data**: The USDA's 6 - month report on global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 year shows detailed data for different countries and regions. The total production is 2547.2 million tons, and the total consumption is 2563.8 million tons. The ICAC's 6 - month report shows a production of 2600 million tons and consumption of 2570 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 year data for China shows a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 853 million tons [5][10]. - **Import and Export Data**: In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 10 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) are mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 and above, and for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton, the basis is mostly at CF09 + 900 and above, with some low - basis at 800 - 900, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market is slightly better but still dull, and the yarn price is difficult to rise and remains stable. The profit of spinning enterprises has deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market is sluggish, and the price remains stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al - Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories have gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate is low [7]. - In the international market, the U.S. cotton planting progress is 85% (89% last year), and the good - to - excellent rate is 48% (54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply - demand report increased the U.S. cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending stocks to 960,000 tons. The U.S. cotton fundamentals are good, and the ICE cotton futures are strongly supported. In the domestic market, with the stable - to - increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or increase. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. The downstream industry is currently in a weak state, with finished product inventories gradually accumulating, and the decline in the operating rate is not obvious. In the short term, the fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range fluctuating adjustment. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 15, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 85% (89% last year, 90% five - year average, 76% the previous week), the budding rate was 19% (21% last year, 17% five - year average, 12% the previous week), the boll - opening rate was 3% (0% the previous week, 5% last year, 3% five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% (54% last year). - As of June 14, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 2.8% (1.4% last week, 3.1% last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][19][25][28]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: Cotton Weekly Report: Fast De - stocking, Cotton Prices Slightly Bullish in Fluctuation [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures practice certificate number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting practice certificate number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by both macro - factors and fundamentals. Considering potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation. The Zhengzhou cotton price also has the potential to be slightly bullish in fluctuation if the current de - stocking speed is maintained [7][14][23] Group 3: International Market Analysis US Cotton Market - The US cotton market is mainly affected by macro - factors. With potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation [7] - As of June 8, the planting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The squaring rate was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [7] - As of the week ending June 5, the weekly signing volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 1.36 million tons, a 45% week - on - week decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 0.82 million tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 5.36 million tons, a 25% week - on - week decrease and a 19% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7] - As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2507 contract held by sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of the 24/25 annual sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, equivalent to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 51692, equivalent to 1.17 million tons, an increase of 152 from last week [7] Global Cotton Situation - According to the latest USDA June data, the global cotton production in 25/26 was revised down by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. The total consumption was revised down by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's ending inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Analysis Supply Side - As of May, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4587 million tons, at a relatively low level compared to historical data. As of June 6, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.2092 million tons, a decrease of 128,700 tons (3.86%) from last week. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 108,200 tons (4.49%) and that in inland areas decreased by 4,600 tons (1.02%) [14] Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the end of May, the yarn inventory days in China were 22.34, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89, both at relatively low levels compared to historical data. As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period. The cotton sales situation is relatively fast. As of June 5, the national new cotton sales rate was 88.2%, with a cumulative sales volume of 5.889 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 729,400 tons compared to the four - year average [14] Overall Situation - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by macro - factors such as Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries, which bring uncertainties. From the fundamental perspective, if the current de - stocking speed is maintained, the cotton price may be slightly bullish in fluctuation [14] Group 5: Option Strategies - On June 12, 2025, relevant data of several cotton option contracts are provided, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [19] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 10.4973. The position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.9529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6548. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [21] Group 6: Futures Trading Strategies - The trading logic is similar to the analysis of the Zhengzhou cotton price. The price is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be bullish in fluctuation; for arbitrage and options, the strategy is to wait and see [23] Group 7: Weekly Data Tracking - The report presents data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton, the price difference between September and January contracts, the operating load of pure - cotton spinning mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn and grey fabric inventory days, cotton inventory (including commercial, industrial, and reserve inventories), and the basis of cotton futures and spot [25][26][28]

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before new weather problems occur in US cotton - producing areas or significant changes happen to US trade agreements. The USDA's June supply - demand report provides support, but it still lacks upward drivers due to uncertain US tariff policies and good weather for new US cotton crops [18]. - Domestic cotton futures are in a stage with unclear fundamental drivers, and their trends follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories support spot prices and basis, but the deteriorating downstream business restricts the upward momentum of cotton futures. It is necessary to monitor whether the inventory reduction speed slows down. Currently, cotton futures are expected to be in an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market impacts [1][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.15 | 68.54 | 67.02 | 67.90 | - 0.24 | - 0.35 | 158748 | 26765 | 147821 | 36029 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13355 | 13600 | 13345 | 13495 | 135 | 1.01 | 1014870 | 336485 | 532642 | 1992 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19615 | 19860 | 19605 | 19715 | 85 | 0.43 | 33060 | 13379 | 19858 | 7266 | [4] 2. Fundamentals 2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Fluctuation**: ICE cotton maintained an oscillatory trend this week. In the first half - week, it declined due to good weather in US cotton - producing areas and concerns about US cotton export prospects. After the USDA released its monthly supply - demand report on Thursday, it rebounded as the USDA raised the export forecast for the 2024/25 US cotton season and lowered the production and inventory forecasts for the 2025/26 season [1][4]. - **USDA June Supply - Demand Report**: - **US Cotton Balance Sheet**: The USDA raised the 2024/25 US cotton export by 400,000 bales to 11.5 million bales, causing the ending inventory in 2024/25 to drop by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. It also cut the 2025/26 US cotton production by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales, leading to a 900,000 - bale decrease in ending inventory to 4.3 million bales [5]. - **Global Cotton Balance Sheet**: The USDA cut the 2024/25 global ending cotton inventory by 1.11 million bales, mainly due to reduced production in India and Central Asia. It also cut the 2025/26 global cotton production by 820,000 bales and consumption by 320,000 bales [5]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending June 5, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 45% week - on - week and 51% compared to the four - week average. The 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts decreased by 30% year - on - year. The 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments decreased by 25% week - on - week and 19% compared to the four - week average. The total sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 109% of the annual forecasted exports, and the cumulative export shipments accounted for 82% of the total annual contracts [6]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Monsoon stagnation has affected sowing progress. Domestic yarn mills have weak export demand. The Cotton Corporation of India holds 6800,000 bales of cotton inventory. Cotton imports in March decreased by 30% from February but were higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of this season reached 473,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: May cotton exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The cumulative exports from July to May were higher than the same period in the 2023/24 season. On June 11, the Esalq spot price index was about 78.60 cents per pound [9]. - **Pakistan**: New cotton on the market is pressuring domestic prices. The production is likely to be between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bales. New seed cotton prices are around 8400 - 8800 rupees per 40 kg. A sales tax policy adjustment has different impacts on different market players [10]. - **Bangladesh**: May garment exports were strong. After Eid al - Fitr, spinning and weaving enterprises gradually resumed work. The cumulative export value in the current fiscal year (July/May) increased by 10% compared to the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [10]. - **Australia**: April cotton exports decreased to the lowest monthly level since April 2022. The cumulative exports in the first nine months of this season were lower than the same periods in the past two years [11]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending June 13, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 74%, 65%, and 58% respectively [11]. 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot and Basis**: From June 13, domestic cotton futures first rose and then fell, while spot prices increased steadily, and the basis shifted upward. Spot trading was weaker than last week, with some textile enterprises making rigid - demand purchases [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, the total number of No. 1 cotton registered and forecasted warehouse receipts was 11,076, equivalent to 465,200 tons. Among them, there were 10,257 registered warehouse receipts for Xinjiang cotton and 496 for domestic cotton [12]. - **Downstream Market**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: Affected by rising raw material prices, some textile enterprises raised their quotes at the beginning of the week, but trading was still light. Profits continued to deteriorate, and inventories accumulated. The national startup rate increased slightly, mainly due to the resumption of work in Xinjiang after the Eid al - Adha festival [13][14]. - **Cotton Fabric Market**: Demand remained weak, and the off - season atmosphere was obvious. The startup rate was basically flat. Orders were scarce, and inventories increased. Mills continued to operate at a loss and maintained a "use - as - you - go" procurement strategy [14]. 3. Basic Data Charts The report includes charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, weaving enterprises' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory, yarn - spinning enterprises' startup rate, cotton - fabric enterprises' startup rate, cotton yarn profit, cotton fabric profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [15][16][17]. 4. Operation Suggestions ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and domestic cotton futures are expected to be in an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market impacts [18].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had various cotton basis quotes. The cotton yarn market had slightly better but still weak trading, with prices stable and difficult to increase. Spinning mill profits deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market was sluggish, with prices remaining stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Overseas, the shipment progress of old - crop cotton was good, and the good - to - excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the foreign market. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new - crop cotton output was expected to be stable or slightly increase. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand, stable or increasing finished - product inventories, and a stable or decreasing operating rate of inland spinning mills. Downstream profits gradually deteriorated. In the short term, the fundamental drivers were limited, and the Zhengzhou cotton price was in a difficult situation. Attention should be paid to the performance at the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending June 8, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 76% (79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%), the budding rate was 12% (13% in the same period last year), and the good - to - excellent rate was 49% (56% in the same period last year) [9] - According to CONAB, as of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4% (0.9% last week and 1.7% in the same period last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided various data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][26]