国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在9月15日召开的国新办发布会上表示，尽管当前国内外环境深刻复杂变 化，部分民营企业生产经营困难，民间投资面临一定压力，但从未来发展看，我国经济发展空间广阔， 民间投资增长有支撑。一是高质量发展扎实推进，民间投资增长有空间。民营企业是创新发展中的中坚 力量，是推动高质量发展的重要动力源。随着我国高质量发展扎实推进，民营企业大力推动新能源汽 车、光伏、锂电池等绿色产业发展，积极布局人工智能、具身机器人等未来产业，这将进一步拓展民间 投资发展空间。二是民营企业韧性强活力足，民间投资增长有基础。广大民营企业敢闯敢拼，对市场需 求和技术前沿嗅觉灵敏、反应迅速，具有高度的灵活性和适应性。今年以来，面对外部冲击，广大民营 企业迎难而上、灵活应变，积极拓市场、稳生产，展现出较强发展韧性和创新的活力。三是政策支持有 力，民间投资增长有保障。《民营经济促进法》正式实施，释放了促进民营经济发展的强烈信号。各地 区各部门积极健全政府投资带动社会投资体制机制，民间投资准入环境持续优化，资金和要素保障不断 强化，有利于调动民间投资积极性，促进民间投资稳定发展。 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，受到国际环境变化、房地产 市场调整等因素影响，我国民间投资有所放缓，但扣除房地产开发投资，民间项目投资增长基本稳定。 从未来发展看，我国经济发展空间广阔，民间投资增长有支撑。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market entered a high-level consolidation phase after a long period of continuous rise, with some funds increasing their hedging demand at high levels, leading to a certain divergence between long and short forces and significant fluctuations in stock index futures. In the long run, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology growth stocks, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are mostly composed of dividend blue chips, are more defensive, less volatile, but may have relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different delivery months decreased, with the decline ranging from -0.29% to -0.43%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 83,488, and the open interest decreased by 11,408 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different delivery months also decreased, with the decline ranging from -0.35% to -0.43%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 36,849, and the open interest decreased by 6,262 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different delivery months increased, with the increase ranging from 0.59% to 0.78%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 86,462, and the open interest decreased by 7,730 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different delivery months increased, with the increase ranging from 0.11% to 0.39%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 134,399, and the open interest decreased by 12,508 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different delivery months of each contract showed certain changes [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index decreased by -0.57%, with a trading volume of 26.644 billion lots and a total trading value of 689.576 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The index decreased by -0.49%, with a trading volume of 6.171 billion lots and a total trading value of 177.453 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The index increased by 0.35%, with a trading volume of 26.657 billion lots and a total trading value of 499.36 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index increased by 0.31%, with a trading volume of 31.584 billion lots and a total trading value of 508.828 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with the telecommunications business industry having the largest decline of -2.97% and the information technology industry having the largest increase of 1.03% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between futures and spot prices of each index showed certain changes compared with the previous values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by -0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.43%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index decreased by -0.54%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by -1.09% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.16%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.89%, the S&P 500 decreased by -0.05%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.02% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti - dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the United States. The dumping margin of the products from the US was over 300%, and they accounted for an average of 41% of the Chinese market share [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month term repurchase operation on September 15, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month, a continuous increase for four months [2] - Policies to promote private investment are being formulated, including setting minimum private investment participation ratios for major projects in industries such as railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines [2] - A series of industry stability and growth work plans have been or will be released, including those for the automotive, electronic information manufacturing, and power equipment industries [2] 6. Industry Information - The Shenzhen Science and Technology Sports Industry Fund was established, aiming to invest in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, high - end sports equipment, and the metaverse [2] - The summer grain purchase in 2025 was coming to an end, with over 100 million tons of wheat purchased [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation drafted the "Interim Measures for the Management of Food Safety Inspectors (Draft for Comment)" and solicited public opinions [2] - From January to August 2025, the national railway completed fixed - asset investment of 504.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]

Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China maintained growth in the first eight months of the year, with manufacturing investment growing rapidly [2] Investment Overview - From January to August, total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] - Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% [2] Sector Performance - Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year [2] - Manufacturing investment saw a growth of 5.1% [2] - Real estate development investment declined by 12.9% [2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The sales amount of newly built commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% [2] Industry Breakdown - Investment in the primary industry grew by 5.5% year-on-year [2] - Investment in the secondary industry increased by 7.6% [2] - Investment in the tertiary industry declined by 3.4% [2] Private Investment - Private investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Excluding real estate development investment, private investment grew by 3.0% [2] High-Tech Industry - Investment in high-tech industries showed significant growth, with information services, aerospace and equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing increasing by 34.1%, 28.0%, and 12.6% respectively [2] Monthly Trends - In August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.20% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming policy measures aimed at promoting private investment in key sectors such as railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines, which will set minimum participation ratios for private capital, breaking down entry barriers and hidden monopolies in these industries [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized practical measures to expand private investment, focusing on easing entry barriers and enhancing support for private capital in new production capacities, emerging services, and new infrastructure [1][2]. - The policy will establish minimum private investment participation ratios in major projects, particularly in railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines, facilitating private capital's entry into previously restricted sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The new policy is expected to accelerate domestic industrial upgrades and create new economic growth points by leveraging the high sensitivity of private capital to market demands and its efficiency in technology transformation [1][2]. - The emerging service sector, particularly the silver economy, presents vast opportunities for private investment, allowing for personalized solutions based on market needs [2][4]. Group 3: Implementation and Support - The government will ensure fair competition by enforcing regulations in the bidding process and reserving procurement quotas for small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stabilizing their market space [2][4]. - Increased central budget investments will support private projects, reducing the perceived risks for private capital and encouraging further investment [4]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Experts suggest that the establishment of minimum participation ratios should consider various factors such as technical characteristics, safety requirements, and project scales, advocating for a differentiated approach rather than a one-size-fits-all solution [3][4]. - The need for a balanced approach in setting these ratios is emphasized, ensuring that private capital's involvement is both beneficial and secure, with mechanisms for decision-making participation and profit distribution [3].

2025 年 09 月 15 日 铅：需求边际改善，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17040 | 0.83% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2019 | 1.18% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 63429 | 21657 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6480 | 2104 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 52188 | 2585 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 156496 | -1743 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -30 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -41.16 | 4.34 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | 10 | 进口升贴水（美 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 15 日 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 81,060 | 1.16% | 80810 | -0.31% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,065 | 0.07% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 91,556 | 26,707 | 186,876 | 12,423 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,591 | 1,459 | 292,000 | 2,464 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 25,560 | 5,532 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 153,950 | -225 | 13.46% | -0.06% | ...

会议指出，民间投资对稳就业稳经济具有重要作用。要聚焦企业关切的突出问题，在扩大准入、打通堵点、强化 保障等方面实施一批务实举措，进一步激发民间投资活力、促进民间投资发展。要拓宽民间投资空间，支持民间资本 加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型基础设施等领域投资。要严格落实招标投标领域相关制度规定，保障中小企业政 府采购预留份额，加大中央预算内投资等对民间投资项目的支持力度。要营造公平竞争市场环境，破除限制民间投资 的各种隐性壁垒，加强创新支撑和融资支持，完善服务体系，让民营企业敢投资、有回报。 会议指出，要着眼于为出海企业参与国际合作与竞争提供有力支撑，进一步完善海外综合服务体系。加强协同联 动，统筹法律、金融、物流等领域服务资源，丰富服务产品，构建服务平台，支持有条件的地方打造出海综合服务 港，推动在重点国家建立海外综合服务站，增强商协会服务功能，培育一批跨境服务能力强的专业服务机构。 会议指出，要推动我国生物医学技术创新发展，加快技术研发和成果转化应用，促进生物医药产业提质升级，着 力塑造发展新优势。要坚持发展和安全并重，依法规范临床研究，保障临床应用质量安全，有效防范各类风险，确保 创新成果更好增进人民健康福 ...

Economic and Trade Relations - China and the US held talks in Madrid regarding economic and trade issues on September 14 [2] - A survey by Freightos indicated that nearly half of the 336 small and medium-sized enterprises in the US reported a cost increase of over 20% due to the government's global tariff threats [3] Investment Policies - New policies to promote private investment are being developed, which will set minimum participation ratios for private capital in major projects in sectors like railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines [7] Demographics - Japan's elderly population (aged 65 and above) reached 36.19 million, accounting for 29.4% of the total population, marking a historical high [8] - The number of employed individuals aged 65 and above is projected to reach 9.3 million in 2024, representing 13.7% of the total workforce [9] Industry Developments - The draft national standard for pre-prepared food safety is set to be publicly solicited for opinions, marking a significant step towards regulation in the pre-prepared food industry [13][15] - Midea Group responded to allegations of excessive working hours and unpaid wages, asserting that the claims were unfounded and that the employee's salary had been settled [21] Corporate Strategies - BYD's CEO Wang Chuanfu expressed ambitions to produce 10 million vehicles annually by 2028, aiming to surpass Toyota in global automotive production [30] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced plans for the large-scale deployment of FSD V14 by the end of 2025 and the mass production of the Optimus robot by the end of 2025, highlighting significant advancements in AI and robotics [31]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 当前，我国经济持续回升向好，但基础仍需巩固。在这一关键时期，加大民间投资支持力度，激发民间 投资活力，就是激活中国经济的"一池春水"，为稳就业、稳经济注入确定性力量。 激发民间投资活力，根本在于打通堵点、消除隐忧，营造公平竞争环境。尽管政策层面持续释放鼓励民 间投资的信号，但实践中仍存在"弹簧门""玻璃门"等现象。一些领域准入门槛依然过高，政府采购中面 向中小企业的份额保障仍需加强。这些堵点痛点的存在，一定程度上抑制了民间投资的积极性。因此， 此次会议也提出，"要营造公平竞争市场环境，破除限制民间投资的各种隐性壁垒"。只有持续破堵点、 拓领域，为民企营造稳定公平、透明可期的发展环境，才能让民企敢投、愿投、能投。 激发民间投资活力，核心在于优化服务保障，破解融资难题。民营经济发展壮大，离不开金融活水的滋 养。金融体系不仅是为其输血造血、提供发展动能的源泉，更是其突破瓶颈、转型升级的关键助推器。 这就要求金融支持必须精准施策：既要通过普惠信贷润泽广大小微企业，解决其融资难的生存之忧；也 要借助多层次资本市场，支持符合条件的企业通过科创板、创 ...