专题：新引擎新图景丨金融新启航 在即将开启的"十五五"时期，中国金融体系正站上新的历史关口。"加快建设金融强国"写入规划纲要， 大力发展金融"五篇大文章"，为新质生产力提供支撑、推动实体经济跃升。金融体系的发展重心正向更 高质量、更强韧性迈进。 新浪财经：2024年1月，住房和城乡建设部、国家金融监督管理总局联合发布了《关于建立城市房地产 融资协调机制的通知》，支持合规房地产项目进入"白名单"，引导金融机构加大融资支持力度，您怎么 看白名单发挥的作用？ 连平："白名单"本身是一种制度性的安排，未来仍将发挥重要作用。 最新数据显示，"白名单"项目审批通过贷款规模已超过7万亿元，在很大程度上替代了过去传统意义上 的房企贷款，成为新的主要支持形式。在"白名单"制度的支持下，房企开发贷占银行信贷的比重目前大 致维持在5%左右。 在此背景下，新浪财经推出《金融新启航·新引擎新图景》专题系列，邀请金融业界专家和学者，围 绕"十五五"新周期下的金融变革展开前瞻性研讨。本期《金融新启航·新引擎新图景》对话中国首席经 济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平，他指出，房地产金融已经进入一个 结构性、深度调整的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fiscal and financial policies aim to stimulate domestic demand by optimizing interest subsidy policies for various loan types, thereby enhancing consumer spending and private investment [1][2][5]. Group 1: Policy Overview - Five fiscal and financial policies have been released, focusing on personal consumption loans, equipment upgrade loans, loans for small and micro enterprises, loans for service industry entities, and a special guarantee plan for private investment [1][2]. - The personal consumption loan subsidy has been expanded to include credit card installment payments, with an annual subsidy rate of 1% and no upper limit on single consumption subsidy amounts [1][2]. - A new subsidy policy for small and micro enterprise loans has been introduced, offering a 1.5% annual subsidy for fixed asset loans directed at specified key industries, with a maximum limit of 50 million yuan per borrower [2]. Group 2: Implementation and Impact - The policies are designed to enhance the precision of financial support, making it easier for more enterprises to access subsidies, thus increasing the overall effectiveness of the policies [3][5]. - Financial institutions play a crucial role in the implementation of these policies, as they are encouraged to monitor fund flows and improve risk control while expanding their loan offerings [4]. - The combination of these policies is expected to create a synergistic effect, promoting a virtuous cycle of production and consumption, ultimately leading to increased economic growth [5].

● 本报记者 熊彦莎 财政部1月20日消息，财政部、央行、金融监管总局等部门近日出台财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策措 施：针对提振消费，优化实施个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策；围绕支持民间投资，实施 中小微企业贷款贴息政策，优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策，实施民间投资专项担保计划。 优化实施"双贴息"政策 根据《关于优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策的通知》和《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政 策有关事项的通知》两项政策安排，服务业经营主体贷款政策、个人消费贷款贴息政策的优化主要体现 在贴息力度更大，消费领域更广，实施期限更长，机构覆盖面更宽。 从贴息力度来看，对于个人消费者，消费者在一家银行单笔消费可获得的贴息额由500元提高到3000 元。对于消费服务行业的企业，将单户享受贴息的贷款额度，从100万元大幅提高到1000万元，贴息金 额也从1万元相应提高到10万元。 从期限来看，上述两项政策的实施期限均延长至2026年底。政策到期后，将根据实施效果，视情研究延 长政策期限。 在消费领域方面，个人消费方面，将覆盖人群多、应用场景广泛的信用卡账单分期业务纳入到贴息范 围，并取消了原有政策中对消费领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is facing unprecedented challenges, with a significant decline in sales area and revenue, necessitating a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 4-5% of GDP to halt the downward spiral [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Challenges - The real estate market is troubled by three main issues: ongoing debt pressure on developers, with total debt exceeding 30 trillion yuan and 6.8 trillion yuan due within the year [3]; low buyer confidence, with only 16.3% of residents expecting price increases, a ten-year low [3]; and a cooling land market, with land transfer fees in 300 cities down 23% year-on-year, impacting local finances [3]. Group 2: Proposed Policy Measures - Morgan Stanley's report suggests a combination of policies to reverse market expectations, including at least 2 trillion yuan in special loans from policy banks to support "guaranteed delivery" and reasonable financing needs of developers [5]; and interest subsidy policies for homebuyers, recommending first-home loan rates below 3% and second-home rates under 4%, with an expected subsidy scale of 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical examples indicate the importance of timely and sufficient policy intervention, such as the U.S. TARP program during the 2008 financial crisis, which was 700 billion USD and stabilized the real estate market [6]; and China's previous successful measures in 2014-2015, which included interest rate cuts and lower down payment ratios [6]. Group 4: Challenges to Implementation - Implementing large-scale interest subsidy policies may face three challenges: fiscal sustainability, with the broad fiscal deficit rate reaching 7% in 2023 [6]; the capacity of the banking system, as net interest margins have narrowed to a historical low of 1.7% [6]; and the sustainability of policy effects to avoid repeating cycles of "stimulus-bubble-regulation" [6]. Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Design - Experts recommend focusing on three key points in policy design: precise targeting to support first-time and improvement demand [8]; establishing a market-based risk-sharing mechanism to avoid moral hazards [8]; and aligning with long-term institutional reforms, including pilot real estate taxes and a dual rental-purchase system [8]. Group 6: Macro Perspective - The real estate regulation faces a "trilemma" of preventing systemic risks, maintaining market stability, and promoting development model transformation, requiring a balance between short-term growth and long-term structural adjustments [10]. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that China has sufficient policy space and tools, with the next few months being critical for observing policy direction [10].

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market in November 2025 continued to show signs of weakness, with significant pressure persisting due to high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - The new housing market is gradually cooling down, with new regulation products performing better than old ones, but overall pressure is increasing [4] Key Market Data - November new housing supply decreased by 40% year-on-year, with significant month-on-month increases in first-tier cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, which saw growth rates of 70% and 160% respectively [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year transaction volume drop of approximately 55%, with only Guangzhou showing a month-on-month increase due to new regulation products [6] - The overall new housing absorption rate in November was 35%, down 8 percentage points year-on-year, with Beijing and Shanghai performing particularly poorly [8] Sales Performance - Real estate companies' sales trends mirrored city-level data, with a cumulative decline of 12% over the first ten months of the year [3] - The second-hand housing market saw a month-on-month recovery of 12% in November, ending a seven-month decline, but still faced a year-on-year drop of 22% [12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Real estate companies are hesitant to increase supply due to concerns over market confidence and the challenges of adjusting prices for old regulation products [7] - The inventory level in November slightly decreased by 1% to 218 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of about 5% [11] Future Outlook - The sales scale for 2026 is expected to continue the downward trend of 2025, with a projected decline of around 5% [14] - The effectiveness of potential interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and their implementation could significantly impact market dynamics if they are substantial and cover existing mortgage loans [15] Regional Insights - In second-tier cities, the average absorption rates were notably high, with cities like Changsha reaching 84% due to the introduction of new regulation products [10] - The housing prices in northwestern cities like Lanzhou and Xi'an may remain stable due to structural factors, although second-hand prices could decline [18] Additional Considerations - The recent public relations incident involving Vanke has not yet significantly impacted market sales confidence [16] - Despite a large amount of land reserves reported by some real estate companies, the current market conditions do not support new construction, indicating a disconnect between land reserves and new project launches [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies by the central government aims to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand through financial collaboration, reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The new subsidy policies provide a 1% interest subsidy for one year, with potential extensions or expansions in support scope [1]. - As of August, the government allocated approximately 420 billion yuan in subsidies, leading to over 2.9 trillion yuan in goods sales [2]. - The policies are designed to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, benefiting upstream and downstream industries [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - China's consumption sector has significant growth potential, transitioning from goods to service consumption, with areas like elderly care and high-quality services presenting market opportunities [3]. - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in growth momentum [3]. - The balance of consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, stood at 21.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34%, which is relatively low compared to previous years [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Coordination - Stakeholders are encouraged to ensure the effective implementation of the subsidy policies, focusing on simplifying processes and enhancing efficiency [4]. - Banks are advised to manage credit funds responsibly, ensuring they are used for genuine consumption or business activities [4]. - A coordinated approach among fiscal, financial, industrial, and investment policies is essential to support consumption and improve living standards [5].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumer demand and support service sector financing, thereby enhancing economic circulation and improving living standards [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The new subsidy policy offers a 1% annual interest subsidy on personal consumption loans and service sector loans, with the central and provincial governments covering 90% and 10% of the subsidy costs, respectively [2][3]. - The policy is expected to leverage 100 billion yuan in subsidy funds to potentially drive 1 trillion yuan in loans towards consumer spending and service sector supply [2][3]. - This marks the first time the central government has implemented interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, highlighting the importance placed on expanding consumption [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The policy targets both supply and demand sides, enhancing consumer capacity while expanding effective supply, particularly in service consumption [3][4]. - Key areas supported by the personal consumption loan subsidy include household vehicles, elderly care, and education, while the service sector loan subsidy focuses on dining, health, and elderly care services [3][4]. - Service consumption in China has significant growth potential, with per capita service consumption expected to grow at an annual rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [3]. Group 3: Financial Institution Role - Financial institutions are crucial in implementing the subsidy policy, acting as a bridge to lower credit costs for residents and service sector entities [6][7]. - The policy outlines specific banks responsible for processing these loans, including six major state-owned banks and 21 national banks for service sector loans [6][7]. - Banks are expected to enhance their services and ensure the timely and efficient delivery of the subsidy benefits to consumers and businesses [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Construction Bank's key operating indicators stabilized and improved in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in operating income but a decrease in net profit [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Construction Bank achieved operating income of 394.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.15% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 162.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.37% [2] - The bank has distributed over 1.3 trillion yuan in dividends since its listing and plans to maintain a 30% dividend payout ratio for the mid-year distribution in 2025 [2] Group 2: Loan Allocation - Construction Bank's loan growth was steady and balanced, with significant advantages in the retail loan market, including personal housing loans, personal consumption loans, and credit card loans [4] - As of the end of June, the bank's technology loan balance was 5.15 trillion yuan, up 16.81% from the end of the previous year; strategic emerging industry loans were 3.39 trillion yuan; green loans were 5.72 trillion yuan, up 14.88%; and digital economy core industry loans were 852.377 billion yuan, up 13.44% [4] - The bank actively supported national key regional strategies, with rapid loan growth in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Chengdu-Chongqing [4] Group 3: Interest Margin Outlook - The bank's CFO noted a 45 basis point decline in asset yield due to the impact of last year's LPR reduction and this year's interest rate cuts [8] - The deposit interest rate decreased by 32 basis points, and the overall liability interest rate fell by 34 basis points [8] - The bank expects the decline in net interest margin to gradually narrow due to the lagging effects of interest rate adjustments [8] Group 4: Risk Management - As of June 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.33%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year, while the ratio of special mention loans was 1.81%, down 0.08 percentage points [10] - The bank's provision coverage ratio improved to 239.40%, up 5.8 percentage points from the end of the previous year, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [10] - The bank is focused on managing risks in the real estate sector while ensuring reasonable financing needs are met [10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current economic environment shows weak loan demand and a decline in interest rate cut expectations, with fiscal policy becoming the main economic driver [1][4] - The financial industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, with new loans in July falling significantly below seasonal expectations, potentially leading to bank balance sheet contraction [1][4][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Loan Demand and Credit Market**: The increase in social financing is primarily driven by government financing, while loan growth is declining year-on-year, indicating weak market demand for loans [3][4] - **Government's Role**: The government is increasingly seen as a key economic driver, with fiscal flexibility taking precedence over large-scale interest rate cuts [4][7] - **Bank Balance Sheets**: Contraction in bank balance sheets due to limited bonds and loans will reduce the availability of quality investment assets, leading to a scarcity of investment opportunities [1][5] - **Interest Rate Policies**: The subsidy policy aims to lower loan rates but is not functioning smoothly, leading to cautious expectations for the bond market in the second half of the year [1][6] - **Monetary Policy Focus**: The current monetary policy emphasizes direct support for the real economy rather than relying on interbank market liquidity or significant interest rate cuts [7][9] Financial Data Insights - **M2 and M1 Growth**: M2 growth increased from 8.3% to 8.8%, while M1 showed significant changes, reflecting a shift in residents' risk preferences towards risk assets [8] - **Bond Market Challenges**: The bond market faces challenges from expected fluctuations and a lack of strong supportive factors, with potential adjustments in the 10-year treasury yield expected to be around 30-40 basis points [9][10] Investment Opportunities - **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is currently weak, but structural opportunities exist, particularly in technology innovation bonds and green finance bonds [2][13][16] - **Green Finance Bonds**: There is a noticeable shift from green credit bonds to green finance bonds, with increased demand from institutions like insurance companies [14][15] - **Future Outlook for Credit Bonds**: The outlook for thematic credit bonds remains positive, especially for technology and green finance, supported by policy changes and competitive issuance costs [16] Market Trends and Strategies - **Yield Curve Expectations**: The yield curve for government bonds is expected to remain weak with upward pressure, suggesting that structural strategies may be more advantageous than simply expecting a downward shift [10][11] - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Focus on technology growth sectors and stable industries such as public utilities and traditional cyclical sectors for stable returns [20] Additional Insights - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market is nearing historical valuation extremes, with limited upward price potential unless driven by equity market changes [18] - **Strong Redemption Impact**: Strong redemptions have led to price declines in convertible bonds, emphasizing the need to monitor high premium bonds to avoid forced redemptions [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and support/resistance levels of various futures on August 14, 2025, including index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2][3][4][5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 13, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Some commodities like rapeseed oil, soybean meal, etc. rose, while container shipping to Europe, industrial silicon, etc. declined. International markets showed that COMEX gold futures rose, international oil prices fell, and most LME base metals declined. The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB exchange rate had mixed performance [14][15][16][17]. 2. Macro - Information - **Financial Data**: In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year [8]. - **"Double Discount" Policy**: The "double discount" policy for personal consumption loans and service business loans has a one - year term, and its extension will be studied later [9]. - **Equipment Update**: 188 billion yuan of investment subsidy funds for equipment updates supported by special long - term bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [10]. - **Social Security Fund**: As of August 12, the social security fund appeared in the top ten tradable shares of 41 A - shares, with a total market value of 12.622 billion yuan. It increased holdings in rural commercial banks, feed, and small household appliances, and reduced holdings in power, chemical raw materials, and medical devices [11]. - **Countermeasures against the EU**: China included two EU banks in the counter - list in response to the EU's sanctions on two Chinese financial institutions [12]. - **Fed Outlook**: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut and a series of rate cuts. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chair [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 13, major index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on August 14, index futures will show a strong - side oscillation. For the whole of August 2025, they are also expected to be strong - side oscillating or oscillating strongly [18][19][22][23]. Bond Futures - On August 13, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. On August 14, they are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [37][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 13, gold and silver futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. In August 2025, they are expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, they are expected to be strong - side oscillating [42][48]. Base Metal Futures - On August 13, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a slight upward trend, while alumina, industrial silicon, and others declined. In August 2025, they are expected to have various trends such as strong - side wide - range oscillation, wide - range oscillation, etc. On August 14, copper, aluminum, and alumina are expected to be weak - side oscillating, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [53][59][65][70][72]. Energy Futures - On August 13, the crude oil futures contract declined. In August 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating [100]. Agricultural Futures - On August 13, the rapeseed meal futures contract rose significantly. On August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Other agricultural futures such as PTA and PVC are expected to be weak - side oscillating on August 14 [7][105][108][110].