证券研究报告 2026年1月9日 行业：基础化工 增持 （维持） 分析师：于庭泽 SAC编号：S0870523040001 分析师：郭吟冬 SAC编号：S0870525110001 主要观点 周期有望回暖，新兴需求成长可期 ——化工行业2026年度投资策略 u 建议关注： 风险提示：原油价格波动、需求不达预期、宏观经济下行。 2 u 化工行业景气回升，周期有望回暖。行业供给增速预期放缓，补库周期已经开启，国家层面持续强化政策 引导，新一轮供给侧改革蓄势待发。关注制冷剂、钾肥、有机硅、磷化工等景气上行板块。 u 关注新材料成长性机会。（1）锂电材料：固态电池产业化进程加速，利好相关材料；（2）光刻胶：下游 半导体需求旺盛，光刻胶作为产业链关键材料，国产替代加速。 行情回顾：2025年基础化工指数回升，化工品价格弱势运行 图1 2024年至今基础化工指数走势 图2 CCPI化工品价格指数 资料来源：iFinD，上海证券研究所 资料来源： iFinD，上海证券研究所 1. 制冷剂：金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、永和股份； 2. 钾肥：亚钾国际、盐湖股份； 3. 有机硅：东岳硅材、兴发集团、新安股份、鲁西化工； 4. ...

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently experiencing historically low gross margins per ton due to rapid domestic capacity expansion leading to oversupply, while demand has not significantly decreased, indicating potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the future [1][2][3] - Companies are proactively reducing capital expenditures, with expectations of continued negative growth in capital expenditures for chemical listed companies from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both domestic and international supply sides are showing signs of contraction. Domestically, companies are reducing capital expenditures due to poor profitability, while internationally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased energy costs in Europe and led to operational difficulties for global chemical leaders, accelerating the shutdown of production lines [1][3] - The demand side is expected to recover, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, followed by China and the UK, which may lead to a resonance in demand between China and the U.S. [1][3] Emerging Opportunities - New industries such as renewable energy, energy storage, photovoltaics, and AI are expected to drive incremental demand for chemical products, with the industry projected to enter an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027 [1][3] - Recommended sectors include: - **Bottom Elastic Products**: Organic silicon and industrial silicon benefiting from high energy consumption characteristics and energy-saving trends (e.g., Hengsheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group) [1][4] - **Soda Ash**: Benefiting from anti-dumping policies despite expansion (e.g., Boyuan Chemical) [1][4] - **PTA and Polyester Filament**: Stable growth in end-user demand (e.g., Tongkun, Xinfengming) [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on quality stocks with bottom valuations and potential volume growth, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Huahong New Materials [2][4][7] - Growth companies in tires and new materials are also worth attention, such as Sailun Tire, Xin Nuobang, and Shengquan Group, which benefit from AI, new energy development, and domestic substitution [5] Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy for the petrochemical industry in 2026 will adopt a top-down framework due to prolonged low margins (10%-20%) and the completion of capital expenditures in 2023 and 2024 [6][7] - Anticipation of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, reducing rates to around 3%, is expected to support a soft landing for the global economy [6] Key Focus Areas in Petrochemical Sector - The PTA sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with optimism regarding market corrections and support from national policies [7][8] - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors, including private refining companies like Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to experience reversals [8] Additional Investment Opportunities - Other notable investment opportunities include the POE market and Xinjiang coal chemical stocks, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and significant profit margin potential [11] - Companies like Aerospace Engineering and 3D Chemical are highlighted for their safety margins and potential valuation recovery due to supportive policies [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The unexpected shutdown of Huntsman’s MDI facility in Europe is expected to drive a rebound in MDI prices, with European and Middle Eastern prices already increasing [9] - The report highlights a recovery in the chemical industry, particularly in MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemicals, driven by high growth expectations in energy storage [8] - The report suggests that the supply contraction in MDI could lead to a price rebound, despite current demand not being at its peak [9] Summary by Sections MDI Market - Huntsman's MDI production facility in the Netherlands, with a capacity of 280,000 tons/year, is undergoing unexpected maintenance, which is likely to last at least a month, leading to price increases in MDI [9] - The report notes that MDI prices have already returned to last year's high points, and the supply situation is more favorable compared to TDI [9] Chemical Industry Outlook - The report identifies several companies with potential for recovery in the PVC sector, including Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., with Wanhua Chemical being highlighted as a leading MDI player [3] - The report also emphasizes the potential for price increases in oxalic acid, driven by demand from the new energy sector, with prices rising to 3,180 yuan/ton [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a list of investment opportunities focusing on medium to long-term safety margins, categorized by "earnings certainty + reasonable valuation" [1] Group 2 - Priority One (Strong earnings delivery, no valuation pressure): - Phosphate and battery materials leaders: Chengxing Co. and Fengyuan Co., driven by product price increases and stable downstream battery demand, with third-quarter earnings support and mid-industry valuation, presenting buying opportunities on pullbacks [3] - Organic silicon leader: Hesheng Silicon Industry, benefiting from improved industry supply-demand dynamics, product price recovery, and strong bargaining power, offering high cost-performance for medium to long-term investment [3] - Photovoltaic equipment leader: Hongyuan Green Energy, with continuous growth in photovoltaic installations, capacity release, and lower valuation compared to peers, ensuring earnings certainty [3] Group 3 - Priority Two (Policy/recovery catalysts, valuation recovery potential): - Energy metals leader: Tianqi Lithium, with lithium prices rebounding from lows and global energy transition needs, currently at historical low valuations, suitable for gradual bottom-building [3] - Port and shipping leader: Shanghai Port Group, benefiting from global economic recovery expectations, steady cargo volume increase, and high dividend yield, combining defensive and offensive attributes [3] - Hainan Free Trade Zone leader: Hainan Mining, with ongoing benefits from free trade port policies, alignment with local industrial planning, and reasonable valuation, supported by clear long-term catalysts [3]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a synchronized rally, with major indices closing higher, reflecting a dual driving force of technology leadership and volume cooperation [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 4000-point mark, while the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rose, indicating strong market momentum [2] - Total trading volume in A-shares exceeded 10.7 trillion yuan, marking a recent high and showcasing significant trading activity [2] Sector Performance - A-shares displayed a "technology + resources" dual mainline characteristic, with the non-ferrous metals sector surging by 2.90%, driven by global inflation expectations and demand for industrial metals [3] - The semiconductor industry chain saw a comprehensive breakout, with significant gains in computing hardware and storage chips, reflecting the resonance of AI hardware localization and the new power system construction [3] - In Hong Kong, the resources sector led the gains, with the materials index soaring by 4.56%, and aluminum-related stocks rising over 10%, indicating a cross-market resonance with A-shares [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investment strategies for the fourth quarter should focus on policy guidance and industry trends, particularly in technology growth sectors such as AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Attention should be given to cyclical and resource products, especially in non-ferrous metals like gold and copper, which benefit from expectations of a weaker dollar [5] - Monitoring the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial, with a focus on AI and high-end manufacturing as long-term mainlines [5] Operational Suggestions - Companies are advised to maintain reasonable positions, avoid speculative trading, and prioritize high-quality stocks with strong valuation and performance alignment across technology growth, cyclical resources, and policy-driven opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability due to macroeconomic improvements and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on sectors like phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, pesticides, MDI, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials [1] - The macroeconomic environment has shown steady recovery since 2025, with expectations for CPI to return to positive territory by Q4 2025 and a gradual narrowing of PPI's year-on-year decline, indicating a bottoming out phase for the chemical industry [1] - The chemical industry's capital expenditure is currently contracting, and the pace of new capacity additions is slowing, which is beneficial for improving supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry's PB valuation is at historical lows, suggesting significant upside potential, while PE valuation reflects market pricing in future recovery [2] - The agricultural chemicals sector is performing relatively well, with high prices for phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and the pesticide industry entering a recovery phase [2] - The lithium battery materials sector is seeing improved profitability trends due to strong end-demand and orderly expansion by leading companies [2] Group 3 - Emerging applications in AI, OLED, and robotics are driving strong growth in the chemical new materials sector, with significant demand for key materials like photoresists and electronic chemicals [3] - The OLED market is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic panel manufacturers increasing their market share and the scale of organic materials expanding [3] - The robotics industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials such as PEEK and MXD6, which are characterized by lightweight, high strength, and high-temperature resistance [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hongda Co., Ltd. announced a joint investment with its affiliate Sichuan Hongda Group to accelerate the mineral exploration and development of its subsidiary Tibet Hongda Duolong Mining Co., Ltd. with a total investment of RMB 36,990.50 million [2] Group 1: Investment Details - Hongda Co. will contribute RMB 15,853.00 million, while Hongda Group will invest RMB 19,147.00 million [2] - After this investment, Hongda Co.'s ownership in Duolong Mining remains unchanged at 30% [2] - Duolong Mining currently holds exploration rights for Duolong Copper Mine and Duobuzaxi Copper Mine, with the Duolong Copper Mine having entered the "exploration to production" phase [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Hongda Co. was established on June 30, 1994, with a registered capital of RMB 203,200 million [2] - The company is primarily engaged in the smelting and sales of non-ferrous metals, particularly zinc, as well as the production and sales of phosphate chemical products [2] - The current chairman is Qiao Shengjun, and the company employs 2,551 people [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Projected revenues for 2024 and Q2 2025 are RMB 3.409 billion, RMB 822 million, and RMB 1.811 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.68%, 15.04%, and 2.80% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 36.11 million, -RMB 35.93 million, and -RMB 74.99 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 137.68%, -556.33%, and -228.54% respectively [3] - The company's asset-liability ratios are 82.87%, 83.30%, and 40.03% for the same periods [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that Chuanfa Longmang achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 239 million yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.69%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items also stood at 239 million yuan, down 16.17%, which aligns with expectations [1] Financial Performance - The main products experienced a slight price increase, but a decrease in phosphate ore production led to a decline in profits [1] - The company's phosphate chemical revenue showed good growth; however, the phosphate ore production declined year-on-year due to factors such as the technological transformation of its subsidiary Tianrui Mining, resulting in increased reliance on purchased phosphate ore and consequently higher overall operating costs [1] - The gross profit margin of the company's main products slightly decreased year-on-year [1] Industry Dynamics - The phosphate ammonium industry is experiencing a favorable shift driven by policy changes [1] - The company has completed acquisitions and secured shares in related enterprises [1] Strategic Focus - The company adheres to a development strategy centered on "scarce resources + core technology + industrial integration + advanced mechanisms," focusing on the development of its core phosphate chemical business [1] - Core products continue to maintain a leading position in the industry [1] - The company is actively building a multi-resource green circular economy industrial chain, leveraging its advantages in the circular economy [1] - There is a focus on addressing technical challenges in the phosphate chemical and new energy materials industries, with an emphasis on promoting technological innovation [1] Rating - The company maintains an "overweight" rating [1]