Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resumption of national subsidies for consumer goods, emphasizing that the pause in subsidies was a temporary adjustment rather than a complete end to the program [1][2]. Group 1: Subsidy Resumption - The third batch of subsidies has been officially launched, with funding allocated to support the "old for new" consumption policy [3][4]. - A total budget of 300 billion yuan has been arranged for the year, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two quarters and an additional 138 billion yuan planned for the third and fourth quarters [5][6]. Group 2: Impact and Distribution - As of mid-July, 280 million people have claimed subsidies, resulting in over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales for related products [7]. - The distribution of subsidies is now more scientifically managed, taking into account population size, previous policy effectiveness, and consumption potential in different regions [8]. Group 3: Product Coverage and Standards - The subsidy program has expanded to cover a wider range of products, including home appliances, renovation materials, and smart devices [9]. - Specific subsidy standards include: - Home appliances: Up to 20% for energy-efficient products, with a maximum of 2,000 yuan for a single item [11][12]. - Digital products: A maximum subsidy of 500 yuan for items priced under 6,000 yuan [13]. - Automotive and home renovation: Significant subsidies for trading in old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles, with up to 30% for certain home renovation materials [14]. Group 4: Implementation and Challenges - The third batch of funds will be distributed in a more refined manner, with some regions implementing daily limits on subsidy issuance to prevent rapid depletion of funds [17]. - Consumers are advised to be aware of local rules and timing for claiming subsidies, as availability may vary by region [18][19]. Group 5: Regulatory Measures - The government is taking steps to combat fraudulent practices related to subsidies, including price manipulation and false claims [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to support economic recovery and ensure the stability of key areas such as people's livelihoods and employment [1][3]. Fiscal Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, the overall fiscal operation was stable, with national general public budget revenue at 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, narrowing the decline by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Tax revenue reached 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but monthly tax revenue has shown a growth trend since April [2]. Budget Execution and Support - The Ministry of Finance has accelerated budget approvals and fund disbursement to enhance policy effectiveness, with 9.29 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [3]. - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds was issued to support major projects, along with 658.3 billion yuan in special bonds for long-term projects [3]. Social Welfare and Employment - General public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security (9.2%), education (5.9%), and health (4.3%) [5]. - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment subsidies, aiming to stabilize jobs and support new graduates [5]. Consumer Spending Initiatives - The government is promoting consumption through initiatives like the trade-in program for consumer goods, with 300 billion yuan allocated to support this effort [8]. - The Ministry of Finance has pre-allocated 162 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds for this program, with additional funds to be distributed in October [8]. Future Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies, enhancing budget execution, and increasing the effectiveness of fund usage to support ongoing economic recovery [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [4][5][12]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to experience steady growth driven by government subsidies and a recovery in domestic demand, despite challenges in export markets due to tariffs [11][12][18]. - The second quarter saw a decline in the heavy holding ratio of home appliance stocks, with an increase in the black appliance sector's weight [3][11][22]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the third batch of 690 billion yuan in government subsidies on consumer demand for home appliances [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector [4][12]. - For kitchen appliances, Boss Electric is recommended, while for small appliances, Bear Electric, Roborock, and Ecovacs are highlighted [12][15]. 2. Market Tracking and Investment Insights - In August, air conditioner production decreased by 7%, with domestic sales entering a seasonal slowdown [1][17]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in government subsidies is expected to support strong domestic sales [2][20]. - The heavy holding ratio for home appliance stocks fell to 3.3%, with white goods seeing the largest decline [3][22]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative performance was -1.65% this week compared to the broader market [29]. - Raw material prices showed an increase, with LME copper and aluminum prices rising by 1.2% and 2.3% respectively [32][36]. - Shipping prices have decreased, with the export shipping index for the West America route down by 6.44% [46]. 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report includes forecasts for key companies, indicating stable growth in domestic sales and a recovery in export orders [53][54]. - The overall market for home appliances is expected to benefit from the government's "old for new" policy, which has already led to significant sales increases [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong province is implementing a series of "Buy in China" activities to stimulate consumer spending, resulting in a 5.6% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Policy and Activity Coordination - The Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce and six other departments have launched the "Buy in China: Mountain Water Saint Welcomes Friends" series as a key initiative to promote consumption across the province [3] - The initiative focuses on four main areas: quality shopping, exquisite food, exciting tourism, and fine performances, with 43 key activities planned to enhance consumer engagement [3] - Nearly 4,000 promotional activities have been held in the first half of the year, aiming for continuous thematic events and activities throughout the year [3] Group 2: Event Launch and Financial Support - The launch event in Yantai featured the "Join in Yantai, Embrace the Sea" city consumption IP, integrating various consumption formats such as events, concerts, and cultural tourism [4] - A total of 15 million yuan has been organized by 38 financial institutions to support key consumption areas, creating a synergistic ecosystem for the "Buy in China" initiative [4] Group 3: Tourism and Consumer Engagement - The "Buy in China: Exciting Tourism Shandong Tour" activity aims to enhance tourism consumption by promoting local travel and attracting overseas visitors [5] - Various measures include planning unique travel routes, offering tourism consumption packages, and conducting promotional events to showcase Shandong's hospitality and quality products [5] - The "1+3+16+N" old-for-new consumption initiative targets specific sectors such as automotive and home appliances, aiming to stimulate consumer willingness to upgrade [5]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Province's industrial economy demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4% in industrial added value for the first half of the year [1] - Private industrial enterprises accounted for 54.5% of the total industrial added value, with an 8.7% year-on-year growth, contributing 63% to the overall industrial growth [1] - The export delivery value of private industrial enterprises increased by 14.4%, contributing 5.4 percentage points to the total industrial export delivery value [1] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant support for industrial production, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, surpassing the overall industrial growth by 2.8 percentage points [2] - The contribution rate of the equipment manufacturing sector to the overall industrial growth was 73.5%, reflecting a continuous improvement in industrial structure [2] - The core manufacturing of digital products grew by 10.7%, maintaining a growth rate higher than the overall industrial sector for 17 consecutive months [2]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in the first half of 2025 is stable, with general public budget expenditure reaching 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1][3] - National general public budget revenue is 11.56 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The issuance of new local government general and special bonds amounts to 2.6 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects in key areas [1][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but has shown a recovery with three consecutive months of growth starting from April [2] - Major tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax have seen increases of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [2] - Non-tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 2.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although the growth rate has decreased compared to the first quarter [2] Group 3 - Significant increases in spending on social security and employment (9.2%), education (5.9%), and scientific technology (9.1%) have been noted [3] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds have accelerated, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent from government fund budgets, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4 - The issuance of national bonds has reached a historical high of 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.55 billion yuan or 35.28% year-on-year [4] - The special bond issuance has progressed well, with 555 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds issued, accelerating by 18 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has resulted in sales of 1.6 trillion yuan in various consumer goods, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance plans to arrange 2 trillion yuan in local government debt limits annually from 2024 to 2026 to support the replacement of existing hidden debts [5] - By the end of June 2025, 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 had been issued, with 1.44 trillion yuan already utilized [5] - The implementation of the replacement policy has alleviated liquidity pressure and facilitated the reform and transformation of financing platforms [5]

Group 1 - The apparent demand for crude steel in China from January to May is 42.888 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Crude steel consumption in China during the same period is 37.260 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, primarily driven by a 12.7% decrease in real estate crude steel consumption [1] - Crude steel exports from January to May reached 5.628 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, contributing to a 1.7 percentage point increase in crude steel demand [1] Group 2 - The real estate sector's crude steel consumption is expected to maintain negative growth due to ongoing inventory pressure, with new construction and construction area decreasing by 22.8% and 9.2% respectively [2] - The housing inventory sales ratio has remained high, indicating that further inventory reduction is needed, with projections suggesting it will only decrease to 19.5 months by year-end, still above the warning line of 18 months [2] Group 3 - Infrastructure steel consumption support is weakening, with significant project investment declining after a strong start in early 2023, leading to a slowdown in infrastructure-related steel consumption growth [3] - The issuance of long-term special bonds for major projects is planned to be 800 billion yuan for 2025, which is 100 billion yuan more than in 2024, but the support for infrastructure steel consumption may weaken in the second half of the year [3] Group 4 - Manufacturing steel consumption is facing challenges due to insufficient support for equipment upgrades and a slowdown in high-tech manufacturing investment growth [4][5] - The support for "old-for-new" consumption in consumer goods is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, which may further weaken the demand for related crude steel consumption [5] Group 5 - Steel exports are anticipated to be lower in the second half of the year due to anti-dumping measures affecting exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a significant reduction in exports to Vietnam [6] - The export of steel billets has increased significantly, raising concerns within the industry, leading to suggestions for export restrictions [6] Group 6 - In a neutral demand scenario, crude steel daily average demand from June to December is expected to decrease by 5.6% compared to May, with an annual demand decline projected at 1.5% [7]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - National general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Overall, fiscal operations have remained stable, characterized by a gradual recovery in tax revenue, a decline in non-tax revenue growth, income growth in most regions, and increased fiscal spending in key areas [1] Employment and Social Security - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 667.4 billion yuan in employment support funds, emphasizing social security as a priority area for fiscal spending [2] - Policies include reducing unemployment and work injury insurance rates, increasing unemployment insurance subsidies, and expanding social insurance subsidies to stabilize jobs and support employment for college graduates [2] - The basic pension for retirees has been increased by 2%, and the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions has been raised by 20 yuan [2] Healthcare and Public Health - The per capita fiscal subsidy standard for basic public health services has been increased by 5 yuan, reaching 99 yuan per person per year [3] - The per capita fiscal subsidy for urban and rural residents' medical insurance has been raised by 30 yuan, totaling 700 yuan per person per year [3] - A total of 552.2 billion yuan has been allocated for related subsidies this year to enhance medical assistance and reduce the financial burden on vulnerable groups [3] Consumer Spending Initiatives - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been a key initiative to boost consumer spending, with 1.6 trillion yuan in sales for items like automobiles and home appliances [4] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture have seen year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of policies to stimulate consumer spending and improve the consumption environment [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on various sectors, indicating a stable recovery in the home furnishing and paper packaging sectors, while new tobacco and packaging sectors show robust growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to see marginal improvement in domestic demand due to government support for consumption upgrades, with a focus on companies with high dividend yields and growth certainty for 2025 [5][10]. - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in heated tobacco products (HTP), with significant sales increases reported in Europe and a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The paper packaging sector is facing a gradual recovery in pulp prices, with a focus on companies that maintain strong market positions and high dividends [12]. - The light consumer goods and pet food sectors are under pressure, but there are opportunities in innovative product launches and channel expansion [15]. - The two-wheeler sector is poised for a rebound with government subsidies and new standards expected to drive demand [16][17]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are expected to improve due to government initiatives, with a focus on companies with strong growth prospects and high dividends [5][10]. - Export figures show a slight increase in June, but a cumulative decline for the first half of the year [10]. New Tobacco - HNB sales increased by 10.5% year-on-year, with a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The regulatory environment in the U.S. is tightening, which may benefit compliant market players [11]. Paper Packaging - Pulp prices have shown slight increases, but overall market conditions remain challenging [12]. - Companies with strong market positions and dividend policies are recommended for investment [12]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Food - The sector is facing challenges, but there are opportunities in new product launches and expanding distribution channels [15]. - Online sales data indicates mixed performance across different product categories [23]. Two-Wheeler - The sector is expected to benefit from government subsidies and new regulations, with a focus on companies that can leverage these changes for growth [16][17]. - Recent data shows a significant number of electric bikes being replaced under the subsidy program [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Views - The packaging paper industry has announced price increases, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing planning to raise prices by 30 CNY/ton starting August 1 [2][4] - The report highlights the potential recovery in the smart phone market, with expectations of improved sales in the second half of the year due to new product launches and government subsidies [6][12] - The report emphasizes the positive performance of the light industry sector, which outperformed the market with a 1.84% increase in the industry index compared to a 1.69% increase in the CSI 300 index [12] Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - As of July 16, 2025, 280 million people have applied for the old-for-new consumer goods subsidy, driving sales over 1.6 trillion CNY [4] - The third batch of 690 billion CNY in special government bonds for consumer goods is being distributed, which is expected to benefit leading home furnishing companies [4][6] 2. Paper and Packaging - As of July 25, 2025, prices for various paper types have shown mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5012.5 CNY/ton (down 87.5 CNY), and corrugated paper at 2513.75 CNY/ton (down 1.25 CNY) [4][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated forest-pulp-paper operations and those with strong domestic sales expectations [4][6] 3. Light Consumer Goods - The report notes that the new product from the brand "Jieting" achieved top sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating strong market demand [6] - Recommendations include companies in the oral care sector and those benefiting from the newborn policy [6] 4. Export Chain - Vietnam's exports in June reached 39.5 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [6] - Companies with overseas production capacity are expected to maintain order advantages [6] 5. New Tobacco Products - The report highlights the U.S. FDA's crackdown on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant companies [6] - The introduction of HNB products by international tobacco leaders is expected to boost sales in new regions [6] 6. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with companies like Jiejia and Wanlima making significant progress in their respective markets [6][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with international production capabilities and strong brand partnerships [6]