Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its June interest rate decision, with the "dot plot" reflecting officials' expectations for rate changes being a key focus for market participants [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Iran dynamics, are influencing market volatility [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with a daily high of 3403 and a low of 3366, indicating a volatile trading environment [2] - The resistance level for gold has shifted from the 3403-3405 range to 3396, with further upward movement expected to face resistance at 3417-3420 and 3430-3433 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3383, 3375-3373, and 3360, with a potential downward move towards 3340 and 3320 if these levels are breached [4] Silver Market Analysis - Silver continues to rise, breaking through the 37 level, with attention on resistance at 37.5 and 38.2 for potential short positions [5] - Support levels for silver are noted at 35.5 and 34.6, indicating areas for potential long positions [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [6] - Following a substantial drop of over 7 dollars, crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on resistance levels for potential short positions and support levels at 73.0, 69, and 71 [8]

策略师：美联储对经济预测与点阵图的修正成为关键 金十数据6月17日讯，Credit Mutuel Asset Management策略师Francois Rimeu在一份报告中说，美联储本 周会议的关键问题是对经济预测和点阵图的修正。与经济政策发展相关的预期调整应反映出增长放缓、 通胀比预期更持久，尽管最近几个月出现了令人惊喜的情况，而且劳动力市场走弱。在滞胀风险和高度 不确定性的背景下，美联储可能会重申其谨慎立场。因此，只要硬数据没有明确证明宽松政策是合理 的，美联储就将推迟任何新的降息举措。与市场一致，该策略预计美联储本周将维持关键利率不变。 ...

Economic Data and Events - China will release economic data for May, including retail sales and industrial output, with expectations of a stable performance compared to April [6][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to announce the June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][7] - The U.S. will report May retail sales, with forecasts indicating a slowdown in growth [19] Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the June meeting, with a high probability of no changes [8] - The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% [10][11] - The European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin, providing insights into macroeconomic forecasts and inflation rates [20] International Summits - The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit will take place in Kazakhstan, focusing on trade and investment cooperation [17][18] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai will address global economic changes and financial cooperation [14] - The G7 Summit will convene in Canada, with discussions expected to be contentious due to differing views on tariffs and international relations [15][16] Corporate Developments - Tesla plans to trial its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 vehicles equipped with new autonomous driving technology [24]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dot plot serves as a crucial tool for market participants to gauge future interest rate movements, despite its non-committal nature [1][2] - The dot plot records anonymous interest rate forecasts from the 19 core members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reflecting their assessments of economic conditions [2] - The dot plot has been released quarterly since 2012 as part of a policy transparency initiative, included in the Economic Projections Summary [2] Group 2 - A dense cluster of dots in the plot indicates strong consensus among policymakers regarding the interest rate path, while a dispersed distribution suggests internal disagreements and a higher likelihood of policy shifts [4] - The median value of the dot plot is often viewed as the "baseline scenario," but extreme values can signal potential black swan risks [4] - The dot plot's predictive accuracy was notably off in 2022, where the median forecast for the end of 2023 was 4.6%, while the actual peak reached 5.25%-5.5%, highlighting its dynamic nature [4] Group 3 - Supporters of the dot plot, including former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, argue that it effectively conveys policymakers' risk assessment thinking [4] - Critics, such as economist Nouriel Roubini, contend that the dispersed predictions can exacerbate market volatility, referencing the "hawkish dot plot panic" of 2018 [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [3][4]. - The Fed announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [4][6]. - The overall tone of the March FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, indicating increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and a more cautious approach to monetary policy [3][6]. - The Fed's economic projections for 2025 and 2026 show a downward revision in GDP growth to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward [14][15]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decisions - The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and to slow down QT, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities is aimed at managing liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Projections - The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 to 4.4% and an upward revision of PCE inflation to 2.7% [14][15]. - The Fed maintains that the likelihood of a recession remains low, despite increased policy uncertainty [14][15]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [16]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have also shifted, with probabilities for cuts in May and June 2025 increasing [16].

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 摘要 广发宏观郭磊团队 第一， 在美联储2025年3月议息会议中 ，FOMC官员一致投票保持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25-4.5%， 这是自2024年9月启动降息后第二次暂停。同时，美联储表示将进一步放缓资产负债表缩减节奏。值得注意 的是，美联储内部对利率决策意见一致，但对控通胀缺乏进展背景下放缓缩表意见并不一致，美联储理事沃勒 就对减缓QT表示反对。 第二， 整体看，3月FOMC声明较预期更加鸽派。一是声明认为政策变化导致经济前景的不确定性在增加； 二是减缓QT开始的时间较预期更早。美联储决定从4月开始，将国债月度赎回上限从250亿美元调降至50亿 美元，同时保持机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券每月赎回上限在350亿美元。在前期报告《新公布的1月美 联储会议纪要说了什么》中我们曾做过分析，美国政府债务上限于今年1月到期，美国财政部动用TGA （Treasury General Account, TGA）账户资金来维持日常运转。为避免未来债务上限变化可能导致银行储 备（reserves）出现大幅波动，放缓资产负债表缩减具有合理性 。 ...