Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its June interest rate decision, with the "dot plot" reflecting officials' expectations for rate changes being a key focus for market participants [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Iran dynamics, are influencing market volatility [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with a daily high of 3403 and a low of 3366, indicating a volatile trading environment [2] - The resistance level for gold has shifted from the 3403-3405 range to 3396, with further upward movement expected to face resistance at 3417-3420 and 3430-3433 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3383, 3375-3373, and 3360, with a potential downward move towards 3340 and 3320 if these levels are breached [4] Silver Market Analysis - Silver continues to rise, breaking through the 37 level, with attention on resistance at 37.5 and 38.2 for potential short positions [5] - Support levels for silver are noted at 35.5 and 34.6, indicating areas for potential long positions [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [6] - Following a substantial drop of over 7 dollars, crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on resistance levels for potential short positions and support levels at 73.0, 69, and 71 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The key issue for the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is the revision of economic forecasts and the dot plot, reflecting a slowdown in growth and persistent inflation despite recent surprising developments and a weakening labor market [1] Economic Predictions - Adjustments in economic policy expectations should indicate a slowdown in growth and that inflation is more persistent than previously anticipated [1] Labor Market - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [1] Monetary Policy - In the context of stagflation risks and high uncertainty, the Federal Reserve is likely to reaffirm its cautious position [1] Interest Rates - The strategy anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the key interest rate unchanged during the upcoming meeting, as long as hard data does not clearly justify easing policies [1]

Economic Data and Events - China will release economic data for May, including retail sales and industrial output, with expectations of a stable performance compared to April [6][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to announce the June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][7] - The U.S. will report May retail sales, with forecasts indicating a slowdown in growth [19] Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the June meeting, with a high probability of no changes [8] - The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% [10][11] - The European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin, providing insights into macroeconomic forecasts and inflation rates [20] International Summits - The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit will take place in Kazakhstan, focusing on trade and investment cooperation [17][18] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai will address global economic changes and financial cooperation [14] - The G7 Summit will convene in Canada, with discussions expected to be contentious due to differing views on tariffs and international relations [15][16] Corporate Developments - Tesla plans to trial its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 vehicles equipped with new autonomous driving technology [24]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dot plot serves as a crucial tool for market participants to gauge future interest rate movements, despite its non-committal nature [1][2] - The dot plot records anonymous interest rate forecasts from the 19 core members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reflecting their assessments of economic conditions [2] - The dot plot has been released quarterly since 2012 as part of a policy transparency initiative, included in the Economic Projections Summary [2] Group 2 - A dense cluster of dots in the plot indicates strong consensus among policymakers regarding the interest rate path, while a dispersed distribution suggests internal disagreements and a higher likelihood of policy shifts [4] - The median value of the dot plot is often viewed as the "baseline scenario," but extreme values can signal potential black swan risks [4] - The dot plot's predictive accuracy was notably off in 2022, where the median forecast for the end of 2023 was 4.6%, while the actual peak reached 5.25%-5.5%, highlighting its dynamic nature [4] Group 3 - Supporters of the dot plot, including former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, argue that it effectively conveys policymakers' risk assessment thinking [4] - Critics, such as economist Nouriel Roubini, contend that the dispersed predictions can exacerbate market volatility, referencing the "hawkish dot plot panic" of 2018 [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [3][4]. - The Fed announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [4][6]. - The overall tone of the March FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, indicating increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and a more cautious approach to monetary policy [3][6]. - The Fed's economic projections for 2025 and 2026 show a downward revision in GDP growth to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward [14][15]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decisions - The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and to slow down QT, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities is aimed at managing liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Projections - The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 to 4.4% and an upward revision of PCE inflation to 2.7% [14][15]. - The Fed maintains that the likelihood of a recession remains low, despite increased policy uncertainty [14][15]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [16]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have also shifted, with probabilities for cuts in May and June 2025 increasing [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The Fed also indicated a further slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction, with internal disagreements on the approach to controlling inflation amidst a lack of progress [1][5][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decisions - The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, highlighting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and an earlier-than-anticipated slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) starting in April, with the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion [1][7][9]. - The Fed's decision to slow QT is seen as a response to potential volatility in bank reserves due to the U.S. debt ceiling situation, which could impact liquidity in the banking system [10][19]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflects a cautious outlook, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations were adjusted upward [3][18]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was slightly increased to 4.4%, and the PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts were raised to 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively [3][18]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. equity markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.41%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell slightly from 4.28% to 4.24% [21]. - Market expectations for rate cuts in May and June 2025 increased, with probabilities of 19.4% and 57%, respectively, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more dovish monetary policy outlook [19].