Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is around 9887 yuan per kilogram, showing a decline of 1.76% from the opening price of 10111 yuan per kilogram [1] - The highest price reached today was 10124 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 9872 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bearish short-term trend in silver TD [1][5] Group 2 - The FOMC's internal divisions are likely to be reflected in the "dot plot," which shows Federal Reserve officials' predictions for future benchmark interest rates [3] - The dot plot may reveal whether officials are inclined to continue rate cuts in the upcoming meetings in October and December, with a first-time release of 2026 rate forecasts [3][4] - Market expectations are pricing in significant easing, with investors anticipating a total of 75 basis points cut this year and another 75 basis points in 2026 [3] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to have a significant negative impact on the US dollar, reducing its attractiveness to international capital [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储即将作出决策之际，彭博美元现货指数已逼近2022年3月以来的最低水平，连续第三日下跌0.1%，市场正密切关注央行政策动 向及未来降息节奏指引。欧元与日元引领主要货币兑美元走强，交易员在等待美联储公告的同时，也在评估年内降息路径的更多细节。 市场参与者还将重点关注美联储公布的点阵图，该图表将反映政策制定者对未来数月货币政策宽松幅度的预测。 图2 图1 此次美联储自美东时间周二起召开为期两天的货币政策会议，背景是就业市场出现疲软迹象——8月就业增长明显放缓，失业率升至2021年以来最高水平， 加之上周修正数据显示，截至3月的年度就业增长远弱于此前预期，引发市场对劳动力市场加速恶化的担忧。 同时，美国总统特朗普持续施压要求降息，而美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的鸽派表态进一步强化了市场对降息的预期。 Monex分析师John Doyle指出，当前市场几乎每天都在消化美联储进一步降息的可能性，到年底累计降息75个基点已成为新的基准情景。 掉期市场交易员已完全计入今日降息25个基点的预期，降息50个基点的概率极低——即便周二公布的零售销售数据强于预期，也未动摇这一押注，仅暗示降 息幅度 ...

时隔一年，市场押注美联储重启降息。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，市场将迎来美联储9月议息会议结果。截至发稿，芝商所CME Group数据显示， 本次会议降息25个基点的可能性为96.1%，降息50个基点的可能性为3.9%。 一年前，2024年9月，美联储启动了四年多来的首次降息，但在降息100个基点后便止步不前。本次市场 押注美联储重启降息，可持续性尚不可知。 此次会议还将公布最新的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）与点阵图，受访专家认为，本次点阵图透露的信息 或更为"鸽派"。"鸽派"指较为宽松的货币政策，即押注美联储降息幅度较大。 美联储的"政治化"也引人关注。受访专家指出，从长期看，美联储货币政策走向或受到新任美联储主席 的影响，但其行动仍受到美联储框架的限制。 市场押注降息25个基点 首先来看数据，美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国8月CPI同比上涨2.9%，与市场预期的2.9%持 平，前值为2.7%；核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，与市场预期的3.1%持平，前值为3.1%；非农就业人口增加 2.2万人，预期7.5万人，前值7.3万人；失业率4.3%，预期4.3%，前值 4.2%。 一般而言，通胀反弹指向维持较高利率， ...

美联储9月利率决议公布在即，美股小幅震荡，等待可能的降息落地。当地时间9月16日，美股三大股指小幅下跌；热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数大涨1.76%，续创阶段新高。 当前市场认为，美联储本月降息或已"板上钉钉"，因此伴随着最新利率决议一同公布的"点阵图"更加值得关注。机构研判，2025年全年降息次数的指引将 在2次和3次之间。 大宗商品方面，隔夜伦敦金现货价格盘中首次突破每盎司3700美元关口。机构认为，当下黄金阶段性具备适中的风险回报比与战术性配置价值。 最新非农就业数据大幅下修叠加通胀数据整体保持稳定，市场研判美联储9月降息或"板上钉钉"，因此相较于是否降息，即将公布的"点阵图"是当下市场 关注的重中之重。 德邦证券研判，"点阵图"会否按照全年降息3次来排列存在未知数。如果美联储过于"鸽派"，会给独立性带来伤害，进而冲击美元信用；如果美联储对后 续降息展望弱于预期，当前市场运行的降息交易主线将受到显著冲击，市场波动将明显放大。 东吴证券认为，往后看，由于美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰将参加本次议息会议，因此2025年全年降息次数的指引将在2次和3次之间。此外，由于明年3月所有 地方联储主席都将经过美联 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025, with a focus on the impact of a weak job market, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure from the White House [1][2] - The most recent dot plot indicated that Fed officials generally anticipate two rate cuts this year, with a consensus prediction of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - There are differing opinions on the aggressiveness of future rate cuts, with some economists predicting multiple cuts in the coming months, while others suggest a more cautious approach [3][4] Group 2 - Wilmington Trust's chief economist predicts that the Fed will maintain a neutral stance on future rate cuts, but expects three cuts by the end of this year and three more in early next year, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 2.75% to 3% [4] - Concerns about the labor market's weakness and potential negative GDP growth have led to predictions of a 50% chance of recession and worsening unemployment [5] - Former Kansas City Fed President George emphasizes the need for the Fed to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation, noting that recent job market data has been disappointing [6]

The Federal Reserve is widely expected this week to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger question for investors is how many more cuts could be on the way as the central bank contends with a weak job market, sticky inflation, and mounting White House pressure. One clue will come in the form of the Fed's "dot plot," a chart updated quarterly that shows each official's prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The last dot plot, released in June, revea ...

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]

本周，黄金周一继续强势上涨收阳，周二冲高回落，周三到周五维持高位震荡走势，周线最终收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 下周为"超级经济周"，多重重磅事件将影响黄金走势，具体如下： 周一：纽约制造业调查公布，反映区域经济活力，为市场提供初步经济基本面参考。 周二：8月美国零售销售报告发布，检验消费韧性，影响市场对美国经济走势的判断，进而作用于美联储政策预期。 周三：先是8月美国房屋开工与建筑许可数据出炉，随后加拿大央行公布货币政策决定，最关键的是美联储发布利率公告并召开鲍威尔新闻发布会，降息幅 度与鲍威尔的鸽派/鹰派基调将直接决定黄金短期走向。 周四：英国央行公布政策决定后，美国每周失业救济数据、费城联储制造业调查接踵而至，进一步补充经济基本面信息，影响市场情绪。 周五：日本央行公布决策，为当周全球央行政策密集期收官，或对全球流动性预期及黄金市场产生间接影响。 对于美联储利率决议，降息周期重启在即，点阵图成关键博弈点。 降息预期：市场普遍预计9月会议将降息25个基点（概率高），仅7%概率降息50个基点；市场定价显示，年内剩余3次会议或每次降息25个基点（累计70个 基点），2026年底预计降息141个基点。 核心关注点 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]

Group 1 - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting [1][2] - There is a narrative suggesting the Fed may front-load rate cuts, potentially implementing a 50 basis point cut now and another 25 basis points in December, aiming for a total reduction of 125 basis points to reach a neutral level [2][3] - The market is already reacting to anticipated rate cuts, with small caps, midcaps, and interest rate-sensitive housing stocks showing improved performance [3][4] Group 2 - The anticipation of rate cuts has led to a positive shift in the performance of small caps, which have been underperforming, and housing stocks, which are beginning to see increased interest [4][5] - Interest rate-sensitive sectors are expected to continue to broaden out the market as the Fed's actions become clearer [5]