1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The methanol industry is expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with limited upside and downside potential [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices are supported by low inventory and potential import reduction, while inland prices are influenced by device maintenance and downstream demand [4] - In the short - term, the supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand from MTO is mainly for rigid procurement, and traditional demand has weakened. Overall, the short - term supply and demand have both declined, leading to an expected volatile pattern [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Port prices have fallen, with Jiangsu ranging from 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton and Guangdong from 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. Inland prices first declined and then rose, with Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton [4] - **International Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of methanol in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19] - **Port - Inland Price Spread**: It shows the price spread trends between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22][23] 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: In 2024 - 2025, China has multiple new methanol plants put into production, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 400 in 2024 and 840 in 2025. Overseas, the total international capacity expansion was 355 in 2024 and is expected to be 330 in 2025 [25] - **Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North, Southwest, and Central regions [27] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows historical data on China's methanol production, capacity utilization, production by process, and capacity utilization by region from 2018 - 2025 [28][30][31][34][35] - **Import - related**: It includes historical data on China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [37][38][39][40][41] - **Cost and Profit**: Data on methanol production costs and profits from different production methods in various regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [43][44][45][46][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization trends of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [52][53][54][56][57] - **Downstream Profit**: Data on the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, etc., in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [60][61][63][64][65][66] - **Procurement Volume**: It includes the procurement volume data of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][70][71][73][74][75][76] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The inventory data of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [78][79][80][81] 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical data of China's methanol factory inventory and inventory in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] - **Port Inventory**: The historical data of China's methanol port inventory and inventory in different ports from 2018 - 2025 are presented [89][90][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market mainly declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market first declined and then rose. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line fluctuated between 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2205 - 2230 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction exceeded the output of restored capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production. In Northwest China, some olefin plants had unexpected recovery failures while the supporting methanol plants operated normally, leading to a rapid accumulation of enterprise inventories this week [7]. - This week, the methanol port inventory fluctuated slightly. In the Yangtze - River area of East China, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas remained low. With more foreign vessels and domestic cargo supplements, inventory accumulation was obvious. In South China, the number of domestic vessels decreased month - on - month, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [7]. - In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued to be under maintenance. This week, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased. The Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to shut down next week, and the operating rate will continue to decline [7]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol spot price declined, and the inland market first declined and then rose [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Production decreased slightly, enterprise inventories in Northwest China accumulated rapidly, port inventory fluctuated slightly, and demand weakened [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.25% [9]. - As of July 4, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 38 [14]. - As of July 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8655, an increase of 638 compared with last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 4, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2005 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 3, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 283 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared with last week [33]. - As of July 4, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 371 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of July 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41]. - As of July 3, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry** - As of July 3, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons compared with last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.45% [44]. - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 10,300 tons [49]. - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23% [49]. - In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43% [53]. - As of July 3, the methanol import profit was 6.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312.34 yuan/ton compared with last week [53]. - **Downstream** - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%. The average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline [56]. - As of July 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 919 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the inventory of methanol enterprises has rapidly accumulated, and the port inventory has shown narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue to drop [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2414 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest is 706,992 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,169 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 77,527 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, with no week - on - week change [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2005 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 445 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 345 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.5 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 50.95 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 16.42 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is 12.74 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.46 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.66% [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.02%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 968 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.13 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [3] - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 67.37 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, with an increase of 1.35 tons; South China has reduced inventory, with a decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.25%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.09% [3]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套利， 或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡季以 及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集中，供 应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除做多可 能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化等 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ➢ 风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 综述：逐步转入震荡格局 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格上涨为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2610-2820元/吨，广东价格波动在2440-2650元/吨。沿海甲醇市场主 要交易逻辑仍在于宏观面对市场情绪的影响，在国际形势的波动下，本周港口甲醇市场宽幅震荡。基本面来看，港口主流甲醇市场近期可流通量偏低 位，货权较为集中，近月基差坚挺运行为主，其他区域市场在下游高价采买情绪较弱的压制下跟涨相对有限。本期内地甲醇市场延续涨势，主产区鄂 尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1990-2033元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2265-2 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2391（-23/-0.95%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2130 元/吨，河南地区报价 2200 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2240 元/吨，鲁北报价 2270 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2260 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2640 元/吨，宁波报价 2630 元/吨，广州报价 2440 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 6 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.05 万吨，较上一期数据增加 8.41 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.90 万吨；华南地区累库，增加 2.51 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡，西 北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 700 元/吨附 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面冲高回落，最终报收 2504（-34/-1.34%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 2020 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2055 元/吨，山西地区报价 2190 元/吨，河南地区报价 2260 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2330 元/吨，鲁北报价 2300 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2280 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2720 元/吨，宁波报价 2740 元/吨，广州报价 2580 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期国际甲醇产量为 803933 吨，较上周减少 23 万吨，装置产能利用率为 55.11%， 较上周大幅下降 15.80%。伊朗装置已全部停车；南北美洲均开工稳定为主，个别产线因 季节性限气停车；东南亚及周边开工负荷不高；非洲某装置因天然气供应而临时停车。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...