Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market in the second quarter is expected to continue, with no significant growth in demand - side production during the off - season. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices. Also, be cautious of the contradiction between the high open interest of the 2507 contract and the approaching delivery month for new energy varieties [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the large future production capacity expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt in a continuous accumulation trend, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to cost reduction of some high - cost technology routes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Prediction**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventories and at risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the money call options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,046 lots, down 560 lots or 0.31%; the open interest was 306,885 lots, down 450 lots or 0.15%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract was 59,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13%; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - spread Changes**: The LC07 - 08 month - spread was 340 yuan/ton (previous value: 160 yuan/ton, last week: 440 yuan/ton); LC08 - 11 was 300 yuan/ton (previous value: 300 yuan/ton, last week: 360 yuan/ton); LC09 - 11 was 40 yuan/ton (previous value: 100 yuan/ton, last week: - 100 yuan/ton); LC11 - 12 was - 380 yuan/ton (previous value: - 300 yuan/ton, last week: - 240 yuan/ton) [15]. 3.3 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores remained unchanged on the day. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li2O: 2 - 2.5% was 1,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium辉石 with Li2O: 6% (Brazil CIF) was 615 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 53,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.47%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 64,570 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.39% [22]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was 4,120 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 5.72%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices was - 934.79 yuan/ton, up 262.22 yuan or - 21.91% [26]. 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The prices of some downstream products remained stable, while others declined slightly. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary material was 105,220 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 622 (consumer - type) ternary material was 111,120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.08%; the price of 811 (power - type) ternary material was 143,120 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.13% [36][37]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 31,713 to 29,967, a decrease of 1,746. Some warehouses such as Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai and Cosco Shipping Nanchang saw significant decreases in warehouse receipts [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of weak supply and light demand, with industrial inventories accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,092 hands, up 1,037 hands; the position of the main contract is 306,885 hands, down 450 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 400 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 31,713 hands/ton, down 330 hands [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 697 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,595 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,576 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise start - up rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,700 yuan/ton, down 0.04; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 215,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 145,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the start - up rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 21.27%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.92%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.1.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 106,820 contracts, up 4,804 contracts; the total put position is 37,986 contracts, up 1,633 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 35.56%, down 0.0738 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money IV is down 0.0079 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The added value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May [2]. - Yahua Group plans to rename its wholly - owned subsidiary Sichuan Yahua Lithium Industry Technology Co., Ltd. to "Yahua Lithium Industry Group" and transfer the equity of five subsidiaries related to lithium business to it for free [2]. - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy's sales volume of new energy materials from January to May 2025 was about 47,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 20.95%. Among them, the sales volume of lithium cobaltate was about 22,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 53%, and the sales volume of ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) was 23,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2% [2]. - In May, US retail sales recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year. After the April data was revised to a 0.1% decline, the unadjusted retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the retail sales excluding automobiles decreased by 0.3% [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The production willingness of some smelters has recovered due to the previous rebound in futures prices. In terms of imports and exports, the export volume from Chile has decreased significantly, and the domestic supply is expected to be high in the short term and then gradually decline [2]. - **Demand**: Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Although the lithium price has weakened recently, enterprises have no intention to further stock up, and the spot market transactions are still cautious and cold [2]. - **Option Market**: The put - call ratio of the position is 35.56%, down 0.0738% month - on - month. The call position in the option market dominates, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2].

2025 年 6 月 18 日 碳酸锂：仓单持续减少 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 60,220 | -20 | -540 | 280 | -3,900 | -15,820 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 48,813 | -35,922 | -155,967 | -256,348 | -181,264 | 38,580 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 109,826 | -16,197 | -84,905 | -149,832 | -179,534 | 74,119 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 5 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 60,440.00 | -1240.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -43,499.00 | -10012.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 162,882.00 | -15353.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -60.00 | -20.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 32,837.00 | -110.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 60,650.00 | +150.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 59,050.00 | +150.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 210.00 | +1390.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 697.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） | 6,595.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - There are differences between bulls and bears in the lithium carbonate market, and the upside may still face pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,760, with a change of -3,520 compared to T - 22; the trading volume was 204,780, a decrease of 104,504 compared to T - 22; the open interest was 194,731, a decrease of 72,665 compared to T - 22. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 60,980, a change of -4,300 compared to T - 22; the trading volume was 112,617, an increase of 76,513 compared to T - 22; the open interest was 194,764, an increase of 141,674 compared to T - 22. The warehouse receipt volume was 32,947, a decrease of 3,294 compared to T - 22 [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2507 was -410, a change of -1,380 compared to T - 22; the basis of spot - 2509 was -630, a change of -600 compared to T - 22; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was -220, a change of 780 compared to T - 22; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 1,600, a change of -50 compared to T - 22; the difference between spot and CIF was 2,136, a change of -1,250 compared to T - 22 [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 628, a decrease of 115 compared to T - 22; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,185, a decrease of 240 compared to T - 22 [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,350, a decrease of 4,900 compared to T - 22; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,100, a decrease of 450 compared to T - 22; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,750, a decrease of 4,850 compared to T - 22; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,350, a decrease of 5,255 compared to T - 22; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 8,200, a decrease of 500 compared to T - 22 [1] - **Consumption Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,405, a decrease of 1,140 compared to T - 22; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 28,920, a decrease of 1,135 compared to T - 22; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 26,610, a decrease of 1,120 compared to T - 22; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,480, an increase of 400 compared to T - 22; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 111,550, a decrease of 1,180 compared to T - 22; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 144,100, a decrease of 2,120 compared to T - 22; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 52,500, a decrease of 1,850 compared to T - 22; the price of electrolyte (for ternary power) was 21,900, a decrease of 250 compared to T - 22; the price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) was 17,950, a decrease of 250 compared to T - 22 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,599 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 92 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,700 - 61,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,350 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,250 - 59,250 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,750 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - In the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of China's total exports. Among them, the export of electric vehicles increased by 19% [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为17471吨，环比增长5.37%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为81378吨，环比减少1.41%,上周三元材料样本 企业库存为14894吨，环比减少1.85%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为60708元/吨，日环比减少0.44%,生产所得为-1347元 /吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为64355元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-6488元/吨， 有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖 端季度现金生产成本为31868元/吨，盐湖端成本低于矿石端，盈利空间较高，排产动力较 为充分。 1、基本面: 中性。 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为16580吨，环比增长3.02%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为81378吨，环比减少1.41%,上周三元材料样本企 业库存为14894吨，环比减少1.85%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为60977元/吨，日环比减少1.54%,生产所得为-1568元/ 吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为64355元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-6439元/吨，有所 亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度 现金生产成本为31868元/吨，盐湖端成本低于矿石端，盈利空间较高 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：矿价节后快速回落，锂价走势仍偏弱 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 59,940 | 140 | -160 | -1,240 | -7,020 | -17,280 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 305,161 | -124,123 | 43,179 | 81,097 | 159,426 | 297,949 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 259,658 | -1, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The policy - driven demand expectations for lithium carbonate are in a multi - empty game with high inventory levels and cost collapses. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the futures price of lithium carbonate will be constrained by the oversupply situation and the decline in Australian ore costs on the upside, while being supported by short - term export rush expectations and market sentiment on the downside. If the demand boost fails to meet expectations, the price may face downward pressure again, and overall, it will continue the low - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On May 14, the main futures contract of lithium carbonate closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 63,020 - 65,200 yuan/ton, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 2,980 yuan/ton to 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.44%. The futures price increase was significantly higher than that of the spot price [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.87% to 277,000 lots, indicating some funds left the market, while the trading volume expanded by 73.95% to 378,000 lots, suggesting intensified market competition [2]. - In the spot market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 66,200 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates also remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 61% month - on - month, as upstream production was still constrained by profit margins [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Analysis and Future Trend Judgment - **Supply Side**: The prices of spodumene (740 yuan/ton) and lepidolite (800 yuan/ton) have remained stable for many days, but the CIF price of Australian ore has dropped to $700/ton, weakening cost support. Upstream lithium salt plants are maintaining high prices due to losses, and the weekly output has increased by 28% month - on - month, so the supply pressure persists [3]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of power ternary materials (116,375 yuan/ton) and lithium iron phosphate (31,445 yuan/ton) increased slightly. The purchasing willingness of downstream cathode material enterprises is low, and demand relies on long - term contracts. The exemption of tariffs on Chinese energy - storage cells in the US may stimulate the expectation of a rush to export, potentially driving up the production of energy - storage cells in May - June and improving short - term marginal demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 464 tons, but the inventory of smelters increased to 55,000 tons. Downstream replenishment remains cautious, and the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 3.13% from May 13 to May 14, while the basis decreased by 66.44%. The open interest decreased by 5.87%, and the trading volume increased by 73.95% [5]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates were stable. The prices of power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, by 0.02% and 0.16% respectively [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points from May 9 to May 2, a decrease of 2.09% [5]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On May 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,959 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants have a strong willingness to maintain high prices due to cost losses. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. Considering the high inventory and weakening cost support, the price of lithium carbonate will continue the low - level oscillatory pattern [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 53.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.99 million units, a year - on - year increase of 42% [7].