Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while also preparing for incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The current proactive fiscal policy mainly focuses on accelerating the implementation of existing policies, particularly the issuance of government bonds, without introducing new incremental policies [2][5]. - National general public budget expenditure for this year reached 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, significantly higher than the revenue growth rate of -0.3% [2]. - From January to May, government fund budget expenditure was 3.2125 trillion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, also exceeding the revenue growth rate of -6.9% [2]. Government Bond Issuance - The rapid issuance of government bonds has provided necessary funding for fiscal expenditure, with 6.29 trillion yuan in national bonds issued in the first five months, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - Net financing from government bonds reached 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Incremental Fiscal Policies - Although specific details on this year's incremental reserve policies have not been disclosed, the approach has become clearer over recent years, focusing on systematic design and policy integration [4][5]. - Experts suggest that incremental fiscal policies are typically introduced in the second half of the year to meet annual economic development goals, often involving the issuance of additional government bonds and other financial instruments [5][6]. Debt Management and Support Measures - This year, refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, completing 81.5% of the annual limit of 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Experts recommend considering the early issuance of the 2 trillion yuan debt limit for next year to alleviate local repayment pressures [6]. Real Estate and Investment Support - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for robust support for real estate development, including policy backing in planning, land, finance, and fiscal aspects [7]. - The Ministry of Finance is working on establishing a childcare subsidy system and aims to finalize the project list for 2025 "two重" construction and central budget investments by the end of June [7][8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the main economic and social development goals for 2024 have been successfully achieved, with solid progress in high-quality development [1] - The audit system reform has further consolidated its effectiveness, showcasing the unique supervisory role of audits, and the overall pattern of audit rectification has matured [1] - The report covers various aspects including central financial management audits, budget execution audits of central departments, major project and risk audits, and audits of key livelihood funds [1] Group 2 - The report addresses public concerns by focusing on key livelihood areas such as education, elderly care, and support for vulnerable groups, revealing issues that harm the interests of the people [2] - It emphasizes the need for enhanced coordination of macroeconomic policies, deepening reforms in key economic areas, and effectively preventing and mitigating major economic risks [2] - By March 2025, over 6,540 billion yuan will have been rectified in response to issues identified in the 2023 audit, with more than 1,710 regulations improved and over 4,120 individuals held accountable [2]

审计署发布国务院关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告，其中指出，促进积极财 政政策提质增效，推动经济回升向好。加大财政支出强度，中央本级一般公共预算支出同比增长 6.5%；发行1万亿元超长期特别国债，专项用于"两重"建设和"两新"工作，保持对重点领域财力保障和 对经济恢复支持力度。扩大地方政府专项债券投向领域和用作项目资本金范围，新增专项债务限额3.9 万亿元，支持地方加大补短板力度。 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.23 2025-06-23 中央财政发力：扩内需，保民生 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 5 月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在 扩大内需、保障民生方面积极发力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有 望边际加码。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040074 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 [Table_Summary] 狭义收入：增速边际回落。2025 年 1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 同比下降 0.3%，其中 5 月当月同比增速 0.1%，相比 4 月边际回落。 究其原因，除了内需有待提振，也反映了我国 PPI 低位运行。从主 要分项看，个人所得税收入增速回升，保持较高增速；增值税收入 增速明显回升，或主要受消费品以旧换新政策的推动；出口退税收 入增速边际回升，主因或在于，关税摩擦暂缓后，企业抢出口；消 费税收入增速略微回落；企业所得税收入增速小幅下滑。此外，非 税收入增速回落转负，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 ...

报告导读： 5月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在扩大 内需、保障民生方面积极发力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有望边际加码。 政府性基金收入增速回落。 2025年1-5月，全国政府性基金预算收入同比下降6.9%，进度高于过去两年同期水 平，其中5月当月同比增速-8.1%，相比4月明显下滑。二季度以来，房地产需求较为疲软，土地使用权收入下 滑对政府性基金收入有所拖累。6月国常会提出，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。我们认为，房地产的供 需变化还需密切跟踪。 政府性基金支出增速下滑，节奏尚可。 2025年1-5月，全国政府性基金预算支出同比增长16%，进度高于去年 同期水平，其中5月当月同比增速8.8%，相比4月明显回落。值得一提的是，4月支出增速较高除了专项债、超 长期特别国债加快发行的支撑，也与基数扰动有关，5月支出增速虽然有所回落，但是表现尚可。 积极财政：持续发力。 今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持消费品以旧换新工作，目 前带动销售额已超过去年全年。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。我们认为，目前外 部因素扰动影响已经不大，提振内部 ...

2025.06. 21 本文字数：1590，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 6月20日，财政部公布2025年1—5月财政收支情况，总体看财政收入平稳，财政支出保持一定扩张 力度，以落实积极财政政策，扩大总需求，推动经济平稳运行。 从财政收入端来看，财政部数据显示，1—5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降 0.3%。这一降幅较前4个月（-0.4%）略微缩窄。全国政府性基金预算收入15483亿元，同比下降 6.9%。这一降幅较前4个月（-6.7%）略微扩大。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，且以前者为主。税收收入又被称之为经济"晴雨 表"。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月全国一般公共预算收入中，全国税收收入79156亿元，同比下降 1.6%，这一降幅较前4个月（-2.1%）有小幅缩窄。 导致今年以来税收收入下滑有多重因素。首先，部分企业经营困难，利润下滑，导致第二大税种企业 所得税收入下滑。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月企业所得税收入（21826亿元）同比下降2.5%。不过今年以来，规模 以上工业企业利润总额同比增速由负转正，企业所得税收入降幅持续缩窄。 其次，房地产市场 ...

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a slight improvement from the previous four months' decline of 0.4% [1] - Government fund budget revenue was 15,483 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, slightly worsening from the previous four months' decline of 6.7% [1] Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue, which is a key economic indicator, accounted for 79,156 billion yuan of the general public budget revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, an improvement from the previous four months' decline of 2.1% [1] - Corporate income tax revenue was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing as profits of large industrial enterprises have turned positive [1][2] Impact of Real Estate and Trade - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to significant declines in related tax revenues, such as deed tax and land value-added tax, which experienced double-digit decreases [2] - Complex foreign trade conditions, including trade wars, have negatively impacted fiscal revenue, with notable declines in import VAT, consumption tax, and tariffs [2] Price Levels and Tax Base - Low price levels have compressed nominal fiscal revenue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in May 2025, affecting tax revenue growth based on nominal value [3] - Domestic VAT revenue was 30,850 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [3] Sector-Specific Tax Revenue Growth - Despite overall tax revenue challenges, certain sectors showed strong performance, with equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 28.8% and computer communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [4] - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, while the information transmission and software services sector grew by 10% [4] Non-Tax Revenue and Budget Adjustments - Non-tax revenue reached 17,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset activation [5] - Local government fund budget revenue was 13,635 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue declining by 11.9% [6] Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - To counteract declining tax revenue, the government has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerating bond issuance to support expenditure [6] - General public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate [7] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, and education expenditures increased by 6.7%, both exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan province is reallocating its newly issued special bonds to address government debts owed to enterprises and to mitigate hidden debts, significantly reducing the amount directed towards project construction in 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Special Bond Allocation Changes - In 2025, Yunnan received a total of 95.5 billion yuan in new special bond quotas, with only 23 billion yuan allocated for project construction, a reduction from 50 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [1][2]. - The allocation for addressing government debts owed to enterprises is set at 35.6 billion yuan, while the amount for supplementing government fund finances increased from 20 billion yuan to 36.9 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Provinces - Other provinces, such as Hunan, have also disclosed their special bond allocations, with nearly 60% directed towards project construction and about 40% for resolving debts owed to enterprises and hidden debts [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The shift in funding priorities indicates a serious issue with government debts owed to enterprises in Yunnan, and the reallocation aims to improve economic circulation by addressing these debts [3][4]. - The use of special bonds to inject liquidity into enterprises is expected to alleviate financial pressures and prevent debt issues from spreading through the industrial chain, thereby enhancing the regional business environment [4]. Group 4: Debt Management and Safety - As of April 2025, Yunnan's total government debt stood at 1.67985 trillion yuan, with a strict control within the debt limit of 1.97244 trillion yuan for the year [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that it's not the right time to over - allocate commodities, and patience is needed. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.6 - 1.8%, and Treasury bond futures should be bought on dips. The stock index has a ceiling and a floor [2][3]. - In 2025, the US economy faces "stagflation" or "recession" risks, while China is on a long "re - inflation" path. Based on these economic judgments, there are corresponding trading opportunities and asset - allocation suggestions in the second half of 2025 [8][25][37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the First Half of 2025 - **Differentiation of Sino - US Commodities**: In the first half of 2025, US commodities first rose and then fell, while Chinese commodities were weak. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy and the trend of rising initial jobless claims and slowing new employment in the US affected commodity prices. The US had obvious inventory - replenishing imports, with imports from January to March reaching $1.2 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 23%, and retail and food service sales from January to March at $2.1 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Domestically, from March to April, the sales of commercial housing weakened, and the domestic demand was still weak. In May, China's PPI was - 3.3% and continued to decline. Exports were supported by the rush - to - export factor, but overall, under the high - interest - rate environment of the Fed, prices were under pressure [5][6]. 2. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 2.1 The US: Risk of Economic "Soft Landing" to "Recession" - **Risk of "Stagflation" or "Recession"**: The US government's debt support for residents' income and consumption is difficult to sustain. The US government faces the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits (the fiscal deficit/GDP in 2024 - 25 was still as high as 6.8%). In April 2025, the US fiscal expenditure was $591.8 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $7.09 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%; the fiscal revenue was $850.2 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $5.06 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The annual deficit in April 2025 was $2.03 trillion, accounting for 6.8% of the US GDP in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was - 0.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, indicating an obvious economic slowdown. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will be between 1.6% - 2.3%, depending on the Fed's interest - rate cut speed and the realization of stable tax - cut policy expectations. Trump's policies have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy [19]. - **High Inflation and Interest - Rate Expectations**: Inflation may remain above the 2% target, forcing the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate above 3.5%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the US federal funds rate will drop to 3.75%, and the first interest - rate cut in the second half of 2025 is expected to be in October [23]. 2.2 China: A Long "Re - inflation" Road - **Difficulty in PPI Recovery**: In May 2025, China's PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, and CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year. Under the background of de - globalization and the reconstruction of the Chinese real - estate model, the path for China's PPI to turn positive is long and difficult. The slow recovery of commercial housing sales and M1, as well as the decline in US imports, will lead to a slow recovery of China's PPI [25]. - **Challenges in Inflation Upturn**: China's inflation upturn faces challenges, including the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, the difficulty of the real - estate price recovery, and over - capacity in some industries. To get out of deflation, China can observe three groups of variables: the continuous expansion of base money and stock money, the continuous resilience of external demand exports, and the maintenance of an "active fiscal policy" [25][31][33]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance and strengthen the amplitude of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. It is expected that in 2025, China's policy interest rate will be cut by 30 - 40BP in two installments, and the deposit - reserve ratio will be cut by 50 - 100BP in two installments [36]. 3. Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - **US Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the resilience of the US economy will decline, consumption and imports will fall, and private investment will be under pressure. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with a risk of decline; the US dollar will oscillate with a risk of further weakening; gold can still be bought on dips, but trading opportunities are not obvious. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield will oscillate between 3.8% - 4.5% and is expected to decline; the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 and tend to decline [37][38]. - **China's Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: The active fiscal policy will support the Chinese economy, and the currency will be further loosened. It is expected that inflation will still be under pressure in the second half of 2025. There is still an expectation of a 30 - 40BP interest - rate cut in the monetary - policy end. With the support of liquidity, the A - share market will maintain active trading, and the yield of Treasury bonds will further decline. Before the policy supports the improvement of the fundamentals, commodity prices will still be suppressed by insufficient demand. The CSI 300 index is expected to be between 3400 - 4400 points; the yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to be between 1.6 - 1.8%; commodities are expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of 2025, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities in the third quarter of 2025 [37][38][39].

Core Insights - The World Bank's latest economic report indicates that China's GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by policy support that enhances consumer spending and a recovery in housing sales in major cities [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Strengthening consumer spending is identified as crucial for maintaining economic growth amid external and domestic challenges [1] - Increased public investment and targeted support for residents are expected to bolster economic growth through more proactive fiscal policies [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments are responding significantly to policy support, with rapid growth in infrastructure investment observed in the first four months of 2025 due to accelerated bond issuance and fund allocation by the government [1] - Manufacturing investment is also maintaining robust growth, aided by policies related to large-scale equipment upgrades and targeted support for key industries [1]