国债期货日报 | 2026-02-04 央行买卖国债1000亿，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in stabilizing and improving China's economic performance in 2025, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumption [1][2][3] - Fiscal revenue showed a gradual improvement throughout 2025, reflecting a stable economic recovery, with a notable increase in public budget expenditures to support economic and social development [1][2] - The fiscal policy included a 1% increase in the deficit ratio to 4%, alongside the issuance of special bonds to bolster state-owned banks' core capital, effectively stimulating domestic demand and ensuring social welfare [1][2] Group 2 - A special fund of 300 billion yuan was allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, directly reducing costs for residents and promoting green and intelligent products, thereby enhancing living standards and driving industrial upgrades [2] - The fiscal policy also focused on strengthening social welfare, with increased employment subsidies, healthcare funding, and the establishment of a national childcare subsidy system, benefiting over 30 million families [2] - For 2026, the fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with an emphasis on expanding spending in key areas such as consumer support and social welfare, while ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability [3][4] Group 3 - The focus of fiscal support will shift towards high-level technological self-reliance, with increased investment in strategic scientific research and innovation, aiming to foster new productive forces for future growth [4] - Government investment funds will play a crucial role in supporting leading enterprises in cutting-edge technology sectors, enhancing collaboration between fiscal and financial resources to drive industrial upgrades [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issuance of local government bonds in China, highlighting a significant increase in the scale and structure of bond issuance for 2026, driven by proactive fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic growth and project funding [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - As of January 27, 2026, a total of 584.7 billion yuan in local bonds has been issued, with new special bonds accounting for 196.2 billion yuan, representing 33.6% of the total [1]. - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period in three years [1]. Group 2: Bond Structure - The first quarter's planned issuance includes 764.4 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1.21 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds, making up 29.5% and 46.7% of the total issuance plan, respectively [2]. - New special bonds will focus on high-quality projects that can quickly generate tangible results, while refinancing bonds will primarily be used to repay maturing debts and optimize debt structures [2]. Group 3: Issuance Mechanism - The "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program is expected to expand, enhancing issuance efficiency and local autonomy [3]. - This mechanism requires local governments to take on greater responsibility for project quality and risk management, leading to differentiated bond issuance rates based on regional fiscal health and project viability [3]. Group 4: Fund Utilization - New special bonds will emphasize project orientation and strategic layout, targeting major projects outlined in the national "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - The funding will support critical infrastructure related to food security, energy security, and emerging industries such as quantum technology and artificial intelligence [4]. - There will be an optimization of the mechanism for using special bonds as project capital, increasing the capital usage ratio to attract more social capital into major projects [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has reached 584.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with a significant focus on special bonds to support key projects and economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - As of January 27, 2023, 5,847 billion yuan of local bonds have been issued, with new special bonds accounting for 1,962 billion yuan, representing 33.6% of the total [1] - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter exceeds 25,000 billion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period in three years [1] Group 2: Bond Structure and Mechanism - The first quarter's planned issuance includes 7,644 billion yuan in new special bonds and 12,106 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds, together making up over 75% of the total issuance plan [2] - The "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program is expected to expand, enhancing issuance efficiency and local autonomy [2] Group 3: Management and Performance Evaluation - The use of local special bonds will be subject to stricter regulatory oversight, with a negative list management model to exclude non-revenue-generating projects [3] - Performance evaluation results will be linked to the allocation of local debt quotas, incentivizing local governments to improve project quality [3] Group 4: Funding Direction and Strategic Focus - New special bonds will focus on major projects outlined in the national "14th Five-Year Plan," including infrastructure related to food security, energy security, and emerging industries [3] - The mechanism for using special bonds as project capital will be optimized, increasing the capital usage ratio to attract more social capital for major strategic projects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has reached 584.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with a significant focus on special bonds to support key projects and stimulate economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - As of January 27, 2023, 5,847 billion yuan of local bonds have been issued, with new special bonds accounting for 1,962 billion yuan, representing 33.6% of the total [1] - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter exceeds 25,000 billion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period in three years [1] Group 2: Bond Structure and Mechanism - The first quarter's planned issuance includes 7,644 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12,106 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, making up over 75% of the total issuance plan [2] - New special bonds will focus on high-quality projects that can quickly generate tangible results, while refinancing bonds will primarily be used to repay maturing debts and optimize financing costs [2] - The "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program is expected to expand, enhancing issuance efficiency and local autonomy [2] Group 3: Management and Regulatory Framework - The use of local special bonds will be subject to stricter regulatory oversight, with a negative list management model to exclude non-revenue-generating projects [3] - There will be a focus on the entire lifecycle management of project funds, ensuring efficient and controlled use of resources [3] - Performance evaluation results will be linked to the allocation of local debt quotas, incentivizing local governments to improve project quality [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus and Investment Areas - New special bonds will support major projects outlined in the national "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on infrastructure related to food security, energy security, and supply chain stability [3] - There will be an emphasis on emerging industries such as low-altitude economy, quantum technology, aerospace, and artificial intelligence [3] - The mechanism for using special bonds as project capital will be optimized, increasing the capital ratio limit to attract more social capital for major strategic projects [4]

新年伊始，更加积极有为的宏观政策靠前发力。从财政金融促内需一揽子政策，到下调各类结构性货币 政策工具利率、完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，财政、货币政策工具箱频频亮出新的"大招"。 按照中央经济工作会议部署，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。这也是财政政策连续两年锚定"更 加积极"这一取向。站在"十五五"开局的新起点，更加积极的财政政策再次发力，赋能经济发展、提升 民生福祉。 更大支出盘子增强动力 日前，2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金下达，支持工业、能源电力、教育、医 疗、住宅老旧电梯等领域约4500个项目，预计带动总投资超过4600亿元；同时，采取直接向地方下达资 金的方式，继续支持老旧营运货车报废更新、新能源城市公交车更新、老旧农机报废更新。此前，2026 年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划也已向地方提前下达。 财政赤字、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券……这些都是实施积极财政政策的重要工具。进入实 施"更加积极"财政政策的第二年，超长期特别国债率先发力，继续支持"两重""两新"，向扩大内需注入 动能。 近期公布的我国经济2025年"成绩单"显示，国内生 ...

转自：成都日报锦观 推动经济财政实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长 ——《关于成都市2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告》解读 1月28日，《关于成都市2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告》以书面形式提请市十八届人大 四次会议审查。 2025年预算执行情况如何？钱花在了哪里？2026年，成都的钱将花在哪些方面？一起看看成都"晒"出 的"账本"。 2025年账单 2025年，全市各级各部门严格执行市十八届人大三次会议批准的预算，财政运行总体平稳，预算执行情 况较好。 全市预算执行情况 ■一般公共预算 全市一般公共预算收入完成2000.7亿元，支出完成2680亿元。 ■政府性基金预算 全市政府性基金预算收入完成1280.4亿元，支出完成1694.1亿元。 ■国有资本经营预算 全市国有资本经营预算收入完成46亿元，支出完成21.7亿元。 ■社会保险基金预算 全市社会保险基金预算收入完成172.1亿元，支出完成135.6亿元。 2026年预算 总体要求 落实更加积极的财政政策，更加注重精准发力、提高效能，协同推进促发展、强统筹、优结构、保重点 和防风险，推动经济财政实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal system in the province is focused on achieving a robust economic recovery and improving people's welfare while laying a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" through a more resilient and high-quality fiscal policy [1][2][8] Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the province's total fiscal revenue reached 7018.7 billion, marking a 2.4% year-on-year increase, with general public budget revenue at 4501.7 billion, up 2.5%, and general public budget expenditure at 11516.1 billion, growing by 0.5% [2] - Over the "14th Five-Year" period, the province's general public budget revenue and expenditure reached 22 trillion and 54 trillion respectively, ranking 8th and 6th nationally, with growth rates of 18.8% and 19.9% compared to the previous five years [1] Investment and Economic Support - The province implemented policies to stimulate investment and consumption, with over 200 billion allocated to support key projects in critical areas [2] - Special funds of 175.1 billion were allocated to enhance the transportation network, achieving record highs in port throughput and international train operations [2] Support for Enterprises - The province has rolled out fiscal policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises, including issuing bonds to clear debts and optimizing the procurement environment [3] - State-owned financial capital has significantly increased, with total assets of 47 trillion, a 54% increase since early 2021, and net assets growing by 58.5% [3] Focus on Key Areas - Fiscal funds are directed towards technology innovation, rural revitalization, and social welfare, with significant investments in agricultural safety and infrastructure [4][5] - The province's spending on people's livelihoods reached 8499.4 billion, accounting for 73.8% of general public budget expenditure, with a focus on education, healthcare, and social security [5] Risk Management - The province has established a multi-faceted risk prevention system, focusing on debt resolution and platform transformation to ensure high-quality development [6] - In 2025, the province issued 1227 billion in replacement bonds and implemented strict management mechanisms to mitigate debt risks [6] Fiscal Reform and Management - The province is advancing fiscal management reforms, including zero-based budgeting and performance management, to enhance resource allocation and fund efficiency [7] - A total of 290.9 billion was saved through fiscal reviews, demonstrating a commitment to fiscal discipline [7] Future Outlook - The fiscal system will continue to focus on the "1+2+4+N" target system, implementing more proactive fiscal policies to support economic growth and modernization efforts in the province [8]

（来源：千龙网） 新华社东京1月27日电 热点问答｜再提"不过半就辞职" 高市为何这般"豪赌" 日本众议院27日发布公告，为期12天的众议院选战正式拉开序幕。日本首相高市早苗在当天的街头演讲 中重申，执政联盟"议席不过半就辞职"。这场被高市赌上首相之位的选举将如何进行？有哪些看点？高 市为何这般"豪赌"？ 如何选举 日本众议院选举实行小选举区与比例代表选区并行的选举方式，选民在投票时需要投两票：一票投给小 选举区候选人，另一票投给比例代表的政党或政治团体。 本次众议院选举共产生465个议席，其中小选举区289席，比例代表选区176席。 此次选举结果首先关系高市的去留问题。她多次强调希望"通过选举获得国民的信任"，并称"执政联盟 议席不过半就辞职"。 自民党内部对选举目标的设定显得更为进取。据日本时事社22日报道，自民党选举对策委员长古屋圭司 表示，此次选举的目标是实现"自民党单独过半数"，以便"迅速作出决断，让政治运转更顺畅"。 日前，立宪民主党与公明党组成新党"中道改革联合"。日本媒体指出，公明党在全国各小选举区通常拥 有1万至2万张可动员选票，过去多用于支持自民党候选人。有分析认为，若缺少公明党支持，可能 ...

2025年江西财政部门下达消费品以旧换新资金超百亿元 中新网南昌1月27日电 (记者 李韵涵)江西省十四届人大四次会议27日在南昌开幕。记者从关于江西省 2025年全省和省级预算执行情况与2026年全省和省级预算草案的报告中了解到，2025年江西财政部门加 力扩围支持消费品以旧换新，下达以旧换新资金102.8亿元。 过去一年，江西财政部门持续用力、更加给力打好积极财政政策"组合拳"，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，推动存量政策和一揽子增量政策加快落地，为完成全年经济社会发展目标提供有力支撑。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 此外，2025年江西财政部门加大吸引外商投资力度，对当年实际利用外资1000万美元以上的制造业项 目，按不超过引资额2%给予当地政府奖励。推动出台外贸促稳提质14条措施和应对美加征关税冲击助 企纾困政策。统筹5.3亿元对企业参加境内外展会、建设海外仓等给予补助，支持江西中欧班列、铁海 联运开行和货物集疏。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview" ...