数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5647 | -21 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 367580 | 9449 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29116 | -100 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. With Brazil approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production [3]. - In the domestic market, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. - Recently, raw sugar has broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production. Domestically, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. Logical Analysis - Raw sugar has recently broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, so Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Be bearish. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. The ISO has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, the highest level of supply - demand shortage in 9 years. However, it is expected that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. - In Brazil, as of the second half of April in the 2025/26 season, sugar production decreased slightly year - on - year. In May, sugar exports decreased by 19.72% year - on - year. As of the week of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, the same as the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from the previous week [10][19][21]. - The NFCSF in India expects the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption demand from October to November 2025. It is also expected that the sugar production will strongly recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million metric tons [22]. - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 23.07% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The average sales price of refined white sugar in May 2025 was 6,026 yuan/ton, a decrease of 392 yuan/ton year - on - year [25]. Weekly Data Tracking - In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons year - on - year. From January to April 2025, China imported 278,400 tons of sugar, a decrease of 77.86% year - on - year. As of April in the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.7401 million tons, a decrease of 44.18% year - on - year [27]. - As of April in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of three types of goods under item 170290 were 806,700 tons, a decrease of 13.44% year - on - year [28].

白糖产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5717 | -17 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 342526 | 1295 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29443 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -27019 | -5633 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | | 4543 | -12 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4552 | -45 -59 | | 吨) | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) | | | | | | 5774 | -15 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5785 | | | /吨) | 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5900 | 0 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) ...

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5734 | -1 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 341231 | -1177 -718 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29443 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -21386 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内) ...

【周三纽约原糖期货下跌，郑糖跟随走弱】周三，纽约原糖期货下跌，主力7月合约收低0.89%，至 16.75美分/磅。伦敦ICE白糖期货主力8月合约收高1.2%，至468.10美元/吨。巴西天气转好利于压榨生 产，令糖价承压走弱。伊朗核问题谈判进入关键期，对糖价影响有限。 昨日，郑糖主力合约跟随原糖 走弱。09合约收盘5730元/吨，下跌2元，或0.03%，增仓723张。国内产区现货价报价持平，昆明糖报价 5965元，南宁糖报价6135元。 今日郑糖跟随原糖回落，大投机空头继续增仓杀跌，产业席位减持空 单。连续下跌后，现货企稳，杀跌动能释放。若原糖无大跌行情，内盘可能止跌反弹。【巴西港口食糖 装运与出口数据有变化】巴西航运机构周四发布数据显示，截至6月4日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的 船只数量为90艘，与此前一周持平。港口等待装运的食糖数量为324.7万吨，较此前一周下降4%。 当周 等待出口的食糖总量中，高等级原糖数量为303.73万吨，较上一周下降3%。桑托斯港等待出口的食糖 数量较上周下降7%，帕拉纳瓜港下降11%。【巴西国家石油公司下调汽油价格】6月2日，巴西国家石 油公司宣布，从6月3日起，将向分销商出 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

期货热点追踪 印度泰国增产在即！糖厂利润遭挤压，糖价冲高即拐点？ 相关链接 ...

国际糖组织（ISO）预警全球糖市缺口将暴增至546万吨，为何糖价不涨反跌？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected bumper harvest in the new season puts pressure on sugar prices [6] - Internationally, Brazil's increased sugar - making ratio and sugar production in the new season drag down the market, but low inventory and tight short - term trade flow support international sugar prices. The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the fast production and sales speed and early inventory reduction lead to the Zhengzhou sugar price following the cost of sugar sources to fill the gap. The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][4] - The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend, while the Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the raw sugar due to high production - sales ratio and low inventory [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's sugar - making ratio and sugar production in the new season are higher than last year, dragging down the market. Low inventory and tight short - term trade flow support international sugar prices. The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress. Domestically, the production and sales speed is fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap becomes the focus. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the cost of sugar sources to fill the gap. The previous market concerns about drought in Guangxi have cooled down after recent rainfall, and attention should be paid to the growth of sugarcane in the new season [3] Logic Analysis - The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend. The current sugar - making ratio is at a relatively high level in the same period. Considering the buying support below, the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate. In contrast, the high production - sales ratio and low inventory in China drive the Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than the raw sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production area of Guangxi [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Take a wait - and - see attitude towards fluctuations - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [4] 2. Core Logic Analysis - The expected bumper harvest in the global sugar market in the new season puts pressure on sugar prices. The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend, while the Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the raw sugar due to high production - sales ratio and low inventory [4][6] 3. Weekly Data Tracking Global Sugar Production Data - Brazil: In the 25/26 season as of the first half of April, sugar production increased slightly year - on - year. In April, exports decreased year - on - year but were still at a high level. As of the week of May 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased slightly [9][19][21] - India: In the 24/25 season, sugar factory production is approaching the end. The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) expects the 2024/25 season's sugar production to decline by 19% to 25.8 million tons. As of April 30, 2025, the number of sugar factories in production decreased, and sugar production decreased by 18.33% year - on - year [22][24] - Thailand: As of April 1, 2025, Thailand has basically completed the sugar harvest. Cumulative sugar production increased by 15% year - on - year. Exports in January increased by 16.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative exports from October last year to January this year were the lowest in the past three seasons. The weakening demand from Indonesia suppresses the premium of Thai sugar. Due to the sharp decline in cassava prices, farmers are more inclined to plant sugarcane, and it is expected that Thailand's sugar production may reach a seven - year high in the 2025/26 season [28] Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data - As of the end of April in the 2024/25 season, except for 15 sugar factories in Yunnan, other sugar factories in China have stopped production. Cumulative sugar production increased by 11.59% year - on - year, cumulative sales increased by 26.07% year - on - year, the sales ratio accelerated by 7.49% year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased by 344,800 tons year - on - year. In April, single - month production decreased by 5.65% year - on - year, and sales increased by 23.40% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 12 seasons [29] Import Data - Imported sugar: In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 59,300 tons. From January to March 2025, China imported 149,200 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 1.054 million tons, a decline of 87.60%. As of March in the 2024/25 season, China imported 1.6109 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4522 million tons, a decline of 47.41% [31] - Imported syrup & pre - mixed powder: As of March 2025, the cumulative import was 130,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 195,500 tons, a decline of 60.02% [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, Brazil's new - year sugar production is下调. India's sugar production is expected to be less than 26 million tons, making exports difficult. Brazil's initial crushing progress has increased significantly year - on - year, and overall consumption lacks a boost [2][26]. - Domestically, the sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and inventory pressure is low. Droughts in major domestic producing areas have affected sugarcane growth. However, the previous opening of the domestic import window may lead to a significant increase in imports in May. Consumption is entering the off - season. Sugar prices mainly depend on later weather changes. If risks are magnified, sugar prices have upward momentum; if there is sufficient rainfall later, sugar prices may face pressure from the off - season and increased imports and may decline [2][26]. - The recommended operation is to conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. Affected by the negative news of the US tariff increase and the decline of the external market, Zhengzhou sugar followed the downward trend, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 5,856 yuan/ton on April 16. Then it rebounded due to weather disasters in major producing areas [5]. - In April, international sugar prices continued to fluctuate downward. Macro - events and strong production at the beginning of Brazil's sugar - crushing season put pressure on the market, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 17.36 cents/pound on April 16 [5]. 2. International Market Analysis 2.1 Brazil: Strong Production Start and Significantly Reduced Inventory - Brazil's sugar inventory in the first quarter of the year decreased by about 70% compared with the historical average. By the end of March, the inventory dropped to 2.61 million tons, a ten - year low, prompting sugar mills to increase sugar production [7]. - The sugar - making ratio in southern Brazil at the beginning of the crushing season was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and market expectations. The attractiveness of sugar production is high, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. Reduced rainfall is beneficial for the start of the crushing season, and supply data is expected to maintain a large year - on - year increase, continuously pressuring the market [7]. 2.2 India: Production Nearing End and High Domestic Sugar Prices - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, India had crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane and produced 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills were not yet finished, having crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. The average sugar - production rate was 9.37%, lower than 10.16% in the previous season [11]. - This season's sugar production is expected to be 25.9 million tons. With production below 26 million tons, exports may be restricted later. Supported by tightened domestic supply, domestic sugar prices in India remain above 19.5 cents/pound [11]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis 3.1 Domestic Production Nearing End and Inventory Declining - As of the end of March 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and all sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had stopped. The country produced 10.7479 million tons of sugar this season, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons or 12.27%. The cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons or 26.64%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory as of March was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [14]. - In the short term, domestic supply pressure is very limited. Before the increase in imports, sugar mills are expected to maintain a price - holding attitude. Although there will be incremental supply later, it will also be the peak consumption season. Overall, the firm spot price this season will continue to support the futures market [14]. 3.2 Severe Drought in Guangxi and Attention to Later Weather - Since the beginning of 2025, Guangxi has experienced the most severe autumn - winter - spring continuous drought since 1961. As of April 21, 97.5% of the region's land was affected by meteorological drought, with 68.7% reaching the extreme drought level, affecting 52 counties (districts) in 11 cities. It has caused 405,000 people to be affected, 513,000 hectares of crops to be damaged, and direct economic losses of 210 million yuan [17]. - The drought has severely affected sugarcane production in Guangxi. During the critical period of spring - planted sugarcane emergence and ratoon sugarcane tillering from April to May, the continuous drought has led to a 30% - 50% decrease in the sugarcane emergence rate compared with normal years, and the survival rate of ratoon sugarcane in some areas is less than 50%. The drought has also weakened photosynthesis and reduced the sucrose accumulation rate, affecting the sugar - production rate. It is expected that Guangxi's sugarcane output in the 2024/25 season will decline significantly [18]. 3.3 Expected Import Surge in May and Tighter Syrup Control - In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 million tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 million tons. The import contraction was greater than market expectations [23]. - In March 2025, China imported 132,800 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons. From January to March, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 242,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,700 tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 881,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,200 tons [23]. - The import window has opened several times since January 21, March 6, and around April 15, 2025. It is highly likely that imports will significantly increase in May, with the total exceeding 1 million tons [24].