国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 5月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，制造业景气水平改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间与上月基本持平。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） 单位：% 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.7%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降1.3个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为49.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数高于临界点，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指 数均低于临界点。 生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，表明制造业企业生产活动有所加快。 新订单指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气度回升。 原材料库存指数为47.4%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅有所收窄。 从业 ...

Group 1: Service Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's service trade totalled 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [3] - Service exports reached 8,351.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while imports were 11,390.3 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [3] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 7,524.9 billion yuan, up 2.6%, with significant contributions from business services and telecommunications [3] - Travel services saw the highest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 5,849 billion yuan, a 21.8% increase, and exports surged by 97.5% [3] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [5] - The production index was at 49.8%, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing production [6] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand for manufactured goods [7] - The raw materials inventory index dropped to 47.0%, indicating a reduction in the inventory levels of key raw materials [8] - The employment index was at 47.9%, showing a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% in April 2025, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion [10] - The construction sector's business activity index was 51.9%, while the services sector's index was 50.1%, both showing a decline from the previous month [10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 44.9%, indicating a drop in market demand [10] - The input prices index was at 47.8%, suggesting a decrease in the overall price level of inputs used in non-manufacturing activities [11] - The business activity expectations index remained optimistic at 56.0%, despite a slight decline [11] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2% in April 2025, down 1.2 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in production activities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in April dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, reflecting a stable economic foundation despite external uncertainties [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points in April, attributed to external environmental changes and seasonal factors, as March is typically a peak season for manufacturing [1][2]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was significantly higher than the new export orders index, indicating stable domestic demand despite a decline in export orders [2]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors continued to expand, showing resilience in production activities [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating stable expansion [3]. - The construction sector showed robust activity, particularly in infrastructure, with the civil engineering business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 60% [3]. - Consumer sectors, including travel and leisure, experienced increased activity, with indices for air transport and entertainment rising above 55% and 51% respectively [3]. Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall production expansion [5]. - Experts suggest that despite short-term disruptions from global uncertainties, the economic foundation remains solid, supported by a large domestic market and effective policy measures [2][4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained high at over 56%, reflecting optimism among enterprises regarding future market conditions [4][6].

4月30日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，4月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个 百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 另外，受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂 价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，均比上月下降，制造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。文韬表示，4月份 供需整体的偏弱运行带动了原材料和产成品价格加快下行。 不可否认，外贸环境变化给我国制造业带来一定扰动，市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓，原材料采 购、市场价格等方面也有所波动，但也要看到我国经济底座依然稳固，超大规模市场、完备产业链供应 链体系等优势持续发挥作用，前期出台以及增量可期的一系列有力有效的宏观经济政策能够护航经济行 稳致远。赵庆河也谈到，虽然4月份制造业PMI有所回落，但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张， 以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 从重点行业看，高技术制造业持续向好。高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生 产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上。生产经营活动预期指数 ...

制造业PMI有所回落 4月制造业PMI比3月下降1.5个百分点，分项数据显示，制造业市场需求有所放缓。4月，新出口订单指 数为44.7%，较3月下降4.3个百分点；新订单指数为49.2%，较3月下降2.6个百分点。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，国外需求短期收紧拖累了我国制造业整体市场需求。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，从全球范围看，受贸易环境不确定性增大影响，主 要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间，美国供应管理协会发布的3月份美国制造业PMI为49.0%，有 关机构发布的4月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业PMI初值均低于临界点。 制造业PMI中生产指数和价格指数也有所下降。4月，制造业生产指数为49.8%，比3月下降2.8个百分 点。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比3月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制 造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。 "制造业价格指数有所下降，主要受到市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响。"赵 庆河表示。 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会4月30日发布数据显示，4月，制造业PMI为49%， 比3月下降1.5个百 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - All 13 sub-indices related to manufacturing showed a decline, with the production index, new orders index, and new export orders index experiencing significant drops, reflecting a contraction in demand [2][4] - The overall economic output remains stable, with the composite PMI output index at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite the decline in manufacturing PMI [1][4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][8] - Key indices in the non-manufacturing sector, such as new orders and new export orders, also saw declines, but the construction and service industries showed resilience, particularly in tourism and entertainment [6][8] - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for seven consecutive months, indicating a stable optimistic outlook among enterprises for future market conditions [8] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Analysts emphasize the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased government investment in public goods to stimulate market demand and improve employment and income levels [5] - The overall economic environment is influenced by external uncertainties, including trade tensions, which necessitate a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][4] - The second quarter is expected to see stable performance in the non-manufacturing sector, supported by the release of economic stabilization policies [8]

国家统计局：4月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.2%，比上月下降1.2个百分点，继续高于临界点，表明我 国企业生产经营活动保持扩张。 ...

(二)高技术制造业持续向好。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平， 其生产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品 行业和高耗能行业PMI分别为49.6%、49.4%和47.7%，比上月下降2.4、0.6和1.6个百分点，景气水平不 同程度回落。 (三)价格指数有所下降。受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比上月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制造业市场价格总体 水平有所下降。 4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降2.8个百分点，表明制造业企业生产略有放缓。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月下降。 从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落。 | | | | | | | | | 单位：% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新出口 | 进口 | 采购量 | 主要原材 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply, steadily increasing demand, and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,430 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,752 dollars/ton, up 42 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 198,319 lots, down 5,412 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,218 lots, up 534 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory was 211,375 tons, down 1,550 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 235,296 tons, down 21,032 tons; SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipts were 136,003 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 80,015 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,015 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 415 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 71 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons, down 34.88 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 24.14 dollars/kiloton, down 1.26 dollars/kiloton [2]. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,270 yuan/metal ton, up 30 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,970 yuan/metal ton, up 30 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.242 billion tons, up 0.109 billion tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons [2]. - The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 57,590 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,650 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2728 billion tons, up 0.1323 billion tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 43.62 billion yuan, down 564.638 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 1,071.974 billion yuan, down 8,956.048 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402,800 pieces, up 521,990,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 13.82%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 12.13%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 14.41%, down 0.0032%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.06, up 0.0652 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In March, affected by the fading of the Spring Festival factor, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's economy generally maintained an expansion [2]. - Fed's Williams said that the full impact of tariffs may gradually emerge over a long period, and it is necessary to focus on data to measure the impact of tariffs. Fed's Barkin said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. ECB President Lagarde said that US tariff policies would push Europe towards "economic independence", and the ECB estimated that US tariff policies might cause the eurozone GDP to decline by 0.3% in the first year [2]. - IMF President Georgieva said that the global economic outlook might be slightly revised downward, but there were no signs of recession. From January to March, the total sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises were 810.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. In March, the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises decreased by 10.6% year - on - year [2].