Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median expectation for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is 3.9%, unchanged from the March forecast [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Projections** - The median federal funds rate expectation for the end of 2025 remains at 3.9%, consistent with the previous March forecast [1]

智通财经6月19日电，美联储点阵图显示，长期联邦基金利率预期中值为3.0%，3月预期为3.0%。 ...

美国总统特朗普：将联邦基金利率降低2.5个百分点会非常好。 ...

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.32% on June 16, up from 4.28% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on June 16, consistent with the previous day [1] - Significant risk was added to the June 26 SOFR futures contract following record trading volumes on March 26 and June 26 [1] Group 2 - The largest increase in risk was observed in the 10-year Treasury futures due to price volatility on the same day [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors shorting long-term U.S. Treasuries are facing pressure ahead of the May inflation data release due to rising prices and declining yields since mid-May [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Evidence suggests that short sellers of long-term U.S. Treasuries are experiencing challenges as prices have increased and yields have decreased [1] - The SOFR repo rate has recently fallen below the federal funds rate, indicating that some traders are forced to borrow cash at lower-than-market rates to secure the necessary securities for margin calls [1]

美联储理事库格勒：目前的联邦基金利率处于适度到温和收紧的区间。 ...

Core Points - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 4.35% on May 30, an increase from the previous day's rate of 4.33% [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

Market Performance - On May 30, the New York stock market opened lower and experienced narrow fluctuations before closing mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 54.34 points to 42,270.07, a gain of 0.13% [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.48 points to 5,911.69, a decrease of 0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 62.11 points to 19,113.77, a decline of 0.32% [1] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, eight sectors rose and three fell, with the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors leading gains at 1.16% and 1.08%, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.1%, also in line with expectations but lower than March's 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April, consistent with market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's final report indicated that the consumer confidence index for May was 52.2, surpassing market expectations of 52 and matching April's figure [2] - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 6.6%, up from 6.5% in the previous month, while long-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.4% in April to 4.2% in May [2] Company Performance - Costco, a membership-based retail chain, reported earnings slightly above market expectations, leading to a 3.12% increase in its stock price on May 30 [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed significant gains, with Nasdaq futures up 1.72%, S&P 500 futures up 1.44%, and Dow futures up 1.05% [1][2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.73%, reaching a high of $62.29 per barrel [2][3] - Spot gold prices decreased by 0.79%, currently at $3262.48 per ounce [2][3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.44%, currently at 100.334 [2][3] Economic Policy and Legal Developments - A US federal court blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US [5] - The court emphasized that only Congress has the power to regulate trade, and Trump's emergency powers do not override this authority [5] - The lawsuit was initiated by a non-profit organization representing five small US businesses affected by the tariffs, marking a significant legal challenge to Trump's trade policies [5] Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the FOMC meeting held on May 6-7 [6][7] - Committee members expressed the need to carefully assess future data and evolving economic conditions before making further adjustments to the interest rate [6][7] - There is an acknowledgment of increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with rising risks of unemployment and inflation [7]

上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（5月23日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.26%，之前一天报 4.26%。 ...