风险提示及免责条款 美联储理事米兰：当前利率非常有限制性。适当的联邦基金利率大约在2%-2.5%。预计中性利率将接近 零。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

1、美联储在上周三的议息会议上，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%-4.25%，幅度为25个基点，为年内首次降息，也 是时隔9个月后重启降息。美联储最新点阵图预计今年年内还将再降息两次（各25个基点），比6月的预测多出一次。 2、财政部：1-8月全国一般公共预算收入148198亿元，同比增长0.3%；全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。 3、国家统计局发布数据显示，8月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇16-24岁劳动力失业率为18.9%，25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.2%， 30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.9%。 4、国家统计局：1-8月全国分省市粗钢产量出炉，前8月河北以产量14198.63万吨位列全国第一；江苏产量8119.29万吨排在第 二。 5、近期，多家上市钢铁企业在2025年半年报中披露重大股权、非股权投资项目及进展，主要围绕股权收购、设立子公司延伸产 业链与海外布局、绿色低碳改造、智能制造等方面。 声明：本文来源于敬业钢铁、网络等，版权归原作者所有。转载请注明来源；转载仅为学习与交流之目的，如无意中侵犯您的 合法权益，标错来源或侵权，请跟我们联系删除。 专注智能制造让数据产生 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with a previous rate of 4.50% [2] - Most Federal Reserve officials anticipate at least three more rate cuts by the end of the year, with only one official advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, consistent with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time [2] Group 2 - Upcoming key events include the release of manufacturing PMI for multiple countries on September 23, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, and the final value of Q2 real GDP and core PCE price index on September 25 [3] - On September 26, the U.S. will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for August, along with the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for September [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Williams, are scheduled to speak on monetary policy and economic outlook on September 26 [3]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3655, with a latest price of $3656.39 per ounce, reflecting a 0.33% increase, and has reached a high of $3660.91 and a low of $3632.02 [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears bullish, with a significant upward trend observed [1][4] - If gold can maintain above the key level of $3600, the subsequent market outlook remains positive, with potential targets of $3750 and $3800 if resistance levels are broken [4] Group 2 - In the week ending September 13, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and revised previous value of 264,000 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose significantly from -0.3 in August to 23.2 in September, surpassing the expected growth of 2.3 [2] - The Federal Reserve indicated that inflation is showing signs of "some recovery and remains high," while economic growth is expected to slow down in the first half of 2025 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, in response to slowing economic activity and rising inflation [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic activity and employment growth in the first half of the year [1] - Inflation rates have increased, prompting the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy [1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that officials expect an additional cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year [1] Trade Policy Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that tariffs from the Trump administration may continue to elevate commodity prices throughout the remainder of this year and into 2026 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends of various futures on September 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, metal futures, energy futures, and chemical futures [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on September 18. IF2509 has resistance at 4580 and 4600 points, support at 4542 and 4497 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2976 and 2990 points, support at 2940 and 2924 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7300 and 7350 points, support at 7235 and 7165 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7600 and 7650 points, support at 7525 and 7462 points [2][20]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2512 contract is likely to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, support at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2512 contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, support at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2512 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 829.0 and 824.9 yuan/gram, resistance at 845.9 and 850.0 yuan/gram [3][43]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2512 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 10000 and 10090 yuan/kilogram, support at 9800 and 9710 yuan/kilogram [3][50]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 79500 and 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 and 80300 yuan/ton [3][54]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2511 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 20650 and 20600 yuan/ton, with resistance at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, and will attack resistance at 2989 and 3021 yuan/ton, with support at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2511 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 74800 and 75600 yuan/ton, support at 72700 and 72000 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3144 and 3127 yuan/ton, resistance at 3180 and 3200 yuan/ton [4][71]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3370 and 3355 yuan/ton, resistance at 3410 and 3420 yuan/ton [4][77]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 812 and 815 yuan/ton, support at 796 and 793 yuan/ton [4][79]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 1215 and 1201 yuan/ton, resistance at 1241 and 1259 yuan/ton [4][85]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1250 and 1270 yuan/ton, support at 1226 and 1212 yuan/ton [4][88]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1347 and 1358 yuan/ton, support at 1325 and 1314 yuan/ton [4][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 493 and 490 yuan/barrel, resistance at 503 and 504 yuan/barrel [4][99]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract is expected to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 4750 and 4778 yuan/ton, support at 4694 and 4682 yuan/ton [4][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 4934 and 4921 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5000 and 5036 yuan/ton [4][105]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 15590 and 15500 yuan/ton, with resistance at 15880 and 15910 yuan/ton [6][107]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year. The Fed also cut the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate by 25 basis points. The FOMC statement shows concerns about employment and inflation. The dot - plot indicates different expectations for future rate cuts among Fed officials [7][8]. - **Domestic Policies and Data**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption models, introduce a series of policies for service consumption, and carry out over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities during the consumption month, issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies. In the first eight months, China's general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure was 17.93 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year - on - year [10][11]. - **International News**: Canada's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Japan's central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. UK's CPI in August was flat at 3.8% year - on - year [12][13]. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Gold Market**: Hong Kong will take five measures to establish an international gold trading market, including expanding gold storage and establishing a central clearing system [13]. - **International Futures Market**: On September 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, international oil prices slightly declined, and most London base metals fell [14].

美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放 缓，就业增长放缓，通胀率有所上升。鉴于风险平衡变化，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点。 声明说，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间时，公开市场委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化 的经济前景及风险平衡。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后举行的新闻发布会上说，本次会议的注意力全部集中在就业市场上，"现在没 有无风险的途径"。一些人现在"很难找到工作"，降低利率将有利于帮助陷入困境的劳动力市场。 新华社纽约9月17日电 综述｜美联储年内首次降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 参加此次货币政策会议的美联储官员对2025年美国实际国内生产总值增长率的中位数预测值为1.6%， 对失业率的中位数预测值为4.5%，对通胀率的中位数预测值为3%。 美联储宣布降息后，美国股市当天收盘涨跌不一，美元指数大跌后反弹，金价震荡下跌。 富国银行投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.17%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index remained flat, reflecting market reactions to the recent interest rate changes by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1]

17 September 2025 | 2:44PM EDT USA: FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate 25bp; SEP Median Projects Three Cuts for 2025, One Each in 2026 and 2027 BOTTOM LINE: The FOMC lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4-4.25% at its September meeting. The post-meeting statement noted that "downside risks to employment have risen" even as inflation "has moved up." The Committee removed a previous reference to "the extent and timing" of additional fed funds rate cuts in the forward guidance portion of the stat ...

▲ 9月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会 。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 尽管美国通胀率有所上升，并维持在略高的水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联 储终于采取降息措施。近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放缓，就业增长放缓。经 济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。 据悉，联邦公开市场委员会是以11比1的投票结果通过降息25个基点决定的。刚刚就职 的 美 联 储 理 事 、 目 前 仍 担 任 白 宫 经 济 顾 问 委 员 会 主 席 的 斯 蒂 芬 · 米 兰 是 唯 一 持 不 同 意 见 者，他主张降息50个基点。 美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点 。 美国总统特朗普自今年1月上任以来持续施压美联储降息。 来源： 央视新闻，记者：刘旭 当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间 。 这 是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 编辑丨闫志强 ...