Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during the meeting on October 28-29, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will halt the monthly reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, effectively ending the quantitative tightening (QT) process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicated that the Fed may cut rates by another 25 basis points in December and potentially two more cuts in 2026 [1] - The rate decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2; Fed Governor Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to maintain rates [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut by 25 basis points and plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) in December [1][2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is lowered from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [1][2] - Market expectations have fully absorbed the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, with a 99.9% probability for the recent cut and a 91% probability for another cut in December [2] Group 2 - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction means that the Fed's QT actions will conclude after three and a half years, with short-term Treasury securities replacing maturing MBS holdings starting in December [2][3] - The Fed will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with specific limits on the amounts for different securities [3] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is significant disagreement among committee members regarding the potential for another rate cut in December, emphasizing that future policy is not predetermined [5][6] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and increased risks to job stability noted [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments weakened market confidence in a December rate cut, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, marking the second cut since September 17 [1]. - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [1]. Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some members concerned that premature or excessive rate cuts could reignite inflation, while others argue for more aggressive easing to prevent deeper economic recession [2]. - Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, emphasizing the uncertainty due to a lack of government data during the shutdown [2]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 10.01 basis points to 4.0757% and the 2-year yield rising by 10.82 basis points to 3.5980% [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped from over 90% to below 70% according to CME FedWatch [4]. Asset and Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, which had involved monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion to approximately $7.2 trillion since the start of the balance sheet reduction in 2022, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the interbank market [4].

智通财经记者 林倩冰 美联储如期继续降息25个基点。 北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储最新的议息决议将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4%，符合市场预期。 美联储在声明中表示，可获得的指标表明，经济活动一直在以温和的速度扩张。今年，就业增长放缓，自8月来失业率小幅上升，但仍保持在低 位。更近期的指标也与这一情况相符。通胀在今年稍早时便有所上升，且保持了一定程度的高企。委员会注意到其双重任务面临的双面风险，并 判断近几个月就业下行的风险已经上升。 与9月议息声明相比，本月议息声明增加了对时间范围的描述。比如，议息声明新增强调就业增长"今年"以来有所放缓，失业率"自8月以来"小幅 上升，并新增"更近期的指标也与这一情况相符"，通胀在"今年早些时候"便有所上升，委员会判断"近几个月"就业下行的风险已经上升。 同时，声明强调本次判断是依靠"可获得的"指标所得，或表明美国政府"停摆"导致的数据缺失对议息会议仍有所影响。 声明表示，在评估合适的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监控未来的经济数据的影响。如果风险的发生会阻碍达成委员会的双重目标，委员会会 为调整适当的货币政策立场做好准备。委员会的评估将考虑到大 ...

美联储如市场所料继续降息行动，降息25基点，同时决定放弃量化紧缩（QT），一个月后结束缩减资产负债表（缩表）的计划。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的记者会上表示，通胀短期仍有上行压力，就业面临下行风险，目前面临的局面颇具挑战，委员会对12月是否再次降息仍存较大 分歧，降息并非板上钉钉。 FOMC某些成员认为，是时候暂停一下了。鲍威尔说，较高的关税正推动某些商品类别的价格上涨，从而导致整体通胀上升。 美联储祭出组合拳：继续降息25基点+12月结束缩表 美东时间10月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.00%至4.25%下调至3.75%至4.00%，降幅25个基点。在 上次会议今年内首次降息后，本次是联储一年来首次连续第二次FOMC会议降息。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降 息25基点的概率为91%。 这显示，市场已几乎完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提 高到三次。 美 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is ending the drawdown of its balance sheet due to tightening money market liquidity conditions and declining bank reserve levels [1][4] - Starting December 1, the Fed will roll over maturing Treasury securities instead of allowing up to $5 billion to mature each month without replacement, while continuing to allow up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to expire monthly but reinvesting proceeds into Treasury bills [2][3] - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet runoff was anticipated due to rising borrowing costs in short-term lending markets [5][6] Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed has reached a level of reserves consistent with ample conditions in money markets [4] - Recent developments suggest that the Fed has sufficient liquidity in the financial system to maintain control over interest rate targets while allowing for normal volatility in money market rates [7] Group 2 - The end of the balance sheet runoff occurred sooner than many market participants expected, with a prior survey indicating a first-quarter stopping date for quantitative tightening (QT) [8] - The Fed is cautious about removing too much liquidity from the system to avoid losing control of the fed funds rate, as experienced during the previous QT six years ago [9]

要点： 美联储连续两次降息25基点，行动符合市场预期。 美联储缩表持续三年半后告终，决定12月起以短期国债替代到期MBS持仓。 两名反对利率决议的FOMC票委中，特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰和上次会议一样主张降息 50基点，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德支持按兵不动。 声明重申"鉴于风险平衡已转变"决定降息，将"最近的"数据指标换为"可获得的"，新增指 出，劳动力市场近期指标与政府关门前趋势相符，称就业下行风险"近几个月增加"。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储继续努力防止近期就业放缓的趋势恶化，但经济数据缺失使未来利 率走向变得扑朔迷离。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储 本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降息25基点的概率为91%。这显示，市场已几乎 完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计 的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提高到三次。 和前两次会议一样，本次会上，美联储决策层依然没有就利率行动达成统一。包括美国总统特朗普"钦 点"的新任理事米兰在内，两名FOMC委员投票反对降息25个基点的决 ...

Core Points - The committee has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 2.75% to 4% [1] - Labor market conditions are gradually cooling, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact economic activity, but these effects are anticipated to reverse once the shutdown concludes [1] Economic Indicators - Data indicating a strengthening or stabilization of the labor market will influence future decisions regarding the federal funds rate [2] - There are differing opinions within the committee about the approach to take in December, indicating uncertainty about further rate reductions [2] - A reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed [2]

Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images Federal Reserve policy committee members, including Lisa Cook, voted to cut their influential fed funds rate Wednesday. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate today by a quarter of a percentage point, as widely expected. Fed officials aim to boost the faltering job market as concerns over inflation take a back seat to fears that unemployment could rise. The Federal Reserve has once again cut its benchmark interest rate, aiming to breathe ...

Core Points - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.31% on October 28, an increase from 4.27% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.12% on October 28, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]