贵金属价格高位"跳水"后反弹乏力。 国泰基金认为短期黄金或存在反弹窗口。首先，当前贵金属隐含波动率已升至极端水平，参考2020年3月末黄金大幅回撤后波动率冲高回落的历史 经验，短期降波修复行情值得期待。其次，市场对"降息+缩表"的定价可能过于抢跑。上周五黄金回调的直接催化是沃什获提名，市场预期其将推 行"降息+缩表"的保守主义货币政策从而推动美元走强，但本轮回调更多反映的是前期涨幅过大导致多头结构脆弱、对利空催化敏感度较高，而非 基本面的根本性转向——美债市场对该消息反应平淡、基本平收即为佐证。 从降息预期来看，国泰基金表示，据CME FedWatch数据，新主席人选公布前后，市场对年内首次降息时点的预期均稳定在6月，全年降息两次的 判断亦未改变；从缩表预期来看，本周FOMC会议延续了自去年12月以来的扩表操作，规模维持在每月400亿美元，市场对"缩表"的预期可能过于 超前，短期现实仍是联储扩表。此外，沃什的政策倾向主要源于其历史表态，但作为特朗普认可的人选，其立场是否会因政治考量而调整仍存不 确定性。 北京时间周一早盘，现货黄金（伦敦金现）失守4700美元/盎司关口，盘中跌逾6%；伦敦银现盘中大跌超7%。低 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant decline after a strong rally, with April gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping below $4,800 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% [1] - The spot gold price saw a maximum drop of over 12% in a single day, reaching a low of $4,682 per ounce before closing down 9.25% at $4,880.03 per ounce [1] - The recent drop in gold and silver prices has led to a corresponding decrease in the prices of domestic gold jewelry and gold bars, with most products seeing a price reduction of around 80 yuan per gram within two days [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - In Beijing, consumers lined up at gold stores for gold recycling, while others took the opportunity to buy gold bars at lower prices [1] - A consumer in Beijing spent over 200,000 yuan to purchase 200 grams of gold, expressing confidence in gold's long-term value despite short-term price fluctuations [3] - In Nanchang, consumers rushed to buy gold jewelry, motivated by the recent price drop, indicating a belief that prices may rise again soon [6] Group 3: Price Trends and Analysis - On January 30, gold experienced its largest single-day drop in 40 years, while silver saw its largest intraday drop, exceeding 35% [9] - The price of gold jewelry per gram fell from over 1,700 yuan to around 1,500 yuan, reflecting a broader trend of price correction after a period of rapid increases [9] - Major gold brands reported significant price drops, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price falling from 1,706 yuan per gram on January 29 to 1,625 yuan on January 31, a decrease of 81 yuan over two days [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market analysts are generally cautious in the short term but remain optimistic about long-term gold price increases, despite the recent price adjustments [14] - The root cause of the recent price drop is attributed to an overheated market, with indicators suggesting speculative funds are motivated to take profits [14] - Analysts noted that the volatility of gold ETFs approached historical extremes, with a volatility rate of 46.02% as of January 29, close to the pandemic peak of 48.98% [15] Group 5: Regulatory Changes - Major banks have begun to implement stricter risk assessments for clients engaging in gold-related transactions following the recent market volatility [17][19] - Agricultural Bank of China announced increased risk assessment requirements for personal clients participating in gold accumulation transactions starting January 30 [17] - Traffic Bank's new policies allow only clients with higher risk tolerance to engage in all gold wallet transactions, reflecting a shift towards more cautious investment practices [19]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced significant volatility this week, driven by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which led to a rebound in the US dollar and a subsequent decline in precious metal prices [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, raised expectations that aggressive interest rate cuts are unlikely, contributing to a stronger US dollar [1] - The recent highs in precious metal prices prompted many investors to take profits, exacerbating selling pressure and increasing market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Implications for Commodities - The strengthening of the US dollar diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities for global buyers, impacting demand for precious metals [1] - The combination of profit-taking and a stronger dollar has led to a notable decline in precious metal prices, reflecting the sensitivity of the market to changes in monetary policy expectations [1]

30日傍晚，贵金属急速跳水。 现货黄金失守5000美元关口，日内跌幅超7%。 瑞银上调了2026年多数行业的黄金需求预期，不过维持央行黄金需求预期不变，其仍预计央行黄金购买量约为950吨。 白银方面，国泰海通证券指出，2026年4月，印度储备银行执行新规，允许白银成为银行与非银行金融机构的抵押物。部分经济体或增加对白银的储备， 有望对银价形成长期支撑。但值得警惕的是，白银市场的短期狂热已积累一定风险。国泰海通证券同时提醒，从金银比来看，白银前期的补涨行情或已演 绎成短期超涨，后续需警惕银价回调风险。 | < W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 96.950 | | 昨结 | 115.866 | 总量 | | 0 | | -18.916 | -16.33% 开盘 | | 115.923 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 118.466 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 96.687 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector experienced a significant decline, with major companies facing trading halts due to a sharp drop in international gold and silver prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 30, the precious metals sector opened significantly lower, with companies such as Hunan Silver (002716.SZ), Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), and Sichuan Gold (001337.SZ) hitting the daily limit down [1] - On January 29, international gold and silver prices surged before experiencing a substantial pullback, with silver prices dropping as much as 8% to $107 per ounce and gold prices falling by up to 5% to $5,137.34 per ounce [1] - As of the latest update, both gold and silver prices have shown some recovery after the initial drop [1]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant decline, with spot gold dropping over 3% to below $5,200 per ounce, a decrease of nearly $200 within the day [1] - Spot silver also fell nearly 4% during the same period [1] - The trading data for gold shows a settlement price of $5,192.560, down $184.600 or 3.43% from the previous day's close of $5,377.160 [2] Group 2 - The A-share market saw a wave of limit-downs in the metals sector, affecting nearly 30 stocks including Nanshan Aluminum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [2] - Major jewelry brands in China significantly reduced their prices for gold jewelry, with prices quoted at 1,662 CNY per gram by Chow Sang Sang, 1,685 CNY by Chow Tai Fook, 1,620 CNY by Lao Feng Xiang, and 1,668 CNY by Lao Miao Gold [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.72% and 0.13% respectively [2] - Large technology stocks mostly saw gains, with notable movements including META rising over 10%, marking its largest single-day increase since July, while Microsoft dropped approximately 10%, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion [3] Commodity Prices - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 5% at one point, falling below $5100 per ounce, and spot silver declining over 8% [1][7] - As of the latest updates, London gold was down 0.20% at $5406.958 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 1.67% to $5429.4 per ounce [7][8] - Other precious metals showed varied performance, with platinum down 2.36% at $2640.30 per ounce and palladium down 2.46% at $2006.40 per ounce [7][9] Energy Sector - Energy stocks showed positive movement, with Exxon Mobil increasing by 2.05%, Chevron by 0.7%, and ConocoPhillips by 1.39% [4] Airline Sector - The airline sector displayed mixed results; Boeing fell by 3.12%, while Delta Airlines rose by 1.06% and Southwest Airlines surged by 18.53% [5] Gold Mining Stocks - Gold mining stocks faced a downturn, with major companies like AngloGold Ashanti dropping over 7% and Newmont Mining down 3.81% [6]

白银方面，国际银价跌落回110美元/盎司下方。COMEX白银报108.7美元/盎司，跌幅超4%；伦敦银报 108.7美元/盎司，跌幅超6% 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者徐雨婷、姜樊）1月29日晚，黄金、白银快速跳水。截至盘中，国际金价跌落 回5200美元/盎司下方，COMEX黄金报5178美元/盎司，跌幅超2%；伦敦金报5140美元/盎司，跌幅超 4%。 ...

编辑：雨林 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | H | | 伦敦金现 | 5281.595 | -136.152 | -2.51% | | | 伦敦银现 | 111.908 | -4.697 | -4.03% | | 1月29日，现货金银价格大幅走低，现货黄金跌超2%，现货白银跌超4%，此前分别一度上涨3%、4%。 ...

来源：中国金币 ...