Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that trade policies pose risks to the Fed's inflation control and employment objectives, suggesting a need to balance these factors in monetary policy formulation [1] Group 1 - Trade policies are impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation and employment effectively [1] - The Federal Reserve will consider these trade-related risks when making decisions regarding monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is crucial in the current economic climate, particularly as the impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to fully materialize [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. inflation rate has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four consecutive years, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [3]. - The impact of tariffs, especially on intermediate goods, will not be immediate, leading to delayed effects on consumer prices [3]. - Ongoing global trade negotiations may last for months or even years, complicating the situation further [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Some policymakers advocate for interest rate cuts to support economic growth, viewing tariff impacts as short-term inflation shocks [1][3]. - However, the Federal Reserve, particularly through the views of Kashkari, emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the long-term effects of trade policies and tariffs on inflation and economic stability [1][3][5]. - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policies [5].

Group 1: Macro News - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth rate cut since August of the previous year, totaling a reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The current inflation rate in New Zealand is 2.5%, which is within the target range of 1%-3%, allowing for further monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank highlighted the "sharp shift in U.S. trade policy" as a key reason for increasing monetary easing, indicating potential negative impacts on New Zealand's export-dependent economy due to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods [3] Group 2: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently down, with the latest price at 771.64 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.67% [4] - The highest price reached today was 773.80 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 767.20 CNY per gram [4] - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 796-806 CNY per gram, with support levels between 733-743 CNY per gram [4]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about fiscal balance are not limited to the United States, with Japan's recent bond auction demand hitting a 10-year low, indicating broader global debt worries [1] Group 1: Debt Levels - The debt-to-GDP ratios for the US and UK stand at 100%, while Japan's is significantly higher at 250% [1] - In 1999, the debt-to-GDP ratios for these countries were much lower, at 41% for the US, 42% for the UK, and 113% for Japan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The current environment presents unprecedented challenges for the long-term bond market, as it has not been experienced in over 30 years amid high global debt levels [1] - An increase in bond supply is anticipated in the coming years, creating a pressing need for inflation control in the long-term market [1]

新华财经北京5月20日电（崔凯）在通胀持续回落、消费疲软以及全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，澳 洲联储（RBA）宣布将现金利率目标下调25个基点至3.85%。这是自2023年以来澳洲利率首次跌破4%， 进入"3"字头区间，标志着货币政策进一步转向宽松。 此次降息符合市场普遍预期。此前，货币市场和多数经济学家已预测到这一决定，主要基于以下几点： 消费者支出低迷、经济增长前景黯淡以及国际关税政策带来的不确定性上升。 通胀稳定，但增长与就业承压 澳洲联储在声明中指出，尽管目前通胀率已从2022年的峰值显著下降，并预计在未来三年内维持在 2.6%的水平，但经济增长面临压力。 全球风险加剧，澳洲政策路径存变数 澳洲联储特别指出，全球经济在过去三个月内不确定性大幅上升，金融市场波动剧烈。尽管近期有关关 税问题的声明推动金融市场价格反弹，但最终政策走向及其他国家的应对措施仍存在高度不确定性。 地缘政治紧张局势也可能进一步拖累全球经济活动。若家庭和企业因前景不明而推迟支出，澳大利亚的 增长、就业和通胀前景将进一步疲软。 不过，联储也表示，如果贸易紧张局势迅速缓解，全球经济增长可能提速，澳洲的降息幅度或将相应减 少。 根据预测： ...

Group 1 - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.9% increase in the wage price index for Q1, slightly above the market expectation of 0.8% [1] - The wage growth was primarily driven by government pay increases for care workers, particularly one-off bonuses for childcare and aged care staff [1] - Private sector wage growth remains weak, indicating that despite a tight labor market, it has not prevented the Reserve Bank of Australia from considering interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Investors widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in the upcoming meeting on May 20 [1] - The year-on-year wage price index growth for Q1 rose from a two-year low of 3.2% to 3.4%, exceeding market expectations [1] - Public sector wage growth surged to 3.6%, reversing a significant decline from the previous quarter, while private sector wage growth remained at 3.3%, well below the peak of 4.2% expected in 2024 [1] Group 3 - Upcoming labor data for April is expected to show a steady increase of about 20,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% [2] - Despite some broad labor cost indicators rising, productivity growth remains disappointingly weak, which could threaten progress in controlling inflation [2] - The overall inflation rate for Q1 was 2.4%, with the key core inflation measure's year-on-year growth slowing to 2.9%, the lowest level in three years, returning to the RBA's target range for the first time since the end of 2021 [2]

美国财长贝森特：我们将大幅度放宽管制。这对于美国家庭的通胀控制也非常有益。 ...

匈牙利经济部：政府致力于将通胀控制在3%至4%的范围内。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted that progress in controlling inflation has been uneven over the past 18 months [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation effectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term rating of "fluctuation intensifies" for copper [1] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's possible non - cooperation with interest rate cuts has reduced market expectations, and copper prices may continue to correct. In the short term, the rebound of Shanghai copper may have temporarily peaked, with weak and volatile trends in the short term, and there is a risk of significant decline due to concerns about economic recession [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Shanghai copper closed at 75,260 yuan/ton (- 0.93%), London copper at $9,188.5/ton (+ 0.27%), New York copper at $4.6760/pound (+ 1.44%), Shanghai electrolytic copper premium at 95 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) at - $173.5/ton, and futures exchange inventories started to accumulate [1] News Situation - Fed Chairman Powell's speech indicated that Trump's tariff measures put the Fed in a dilemma. Powell may prioritize inflation control, which reduced market interest - rate cut expectations, causing US stocks to fall and the US dollar index to rise. Copper prices may correct [2] Trading Logic - In the short term, the rebound of Shanghai copper may have temporarily peaked, with weak and volatile trends, and beware of significant decline due to trading economic recession. The deepening of negative processing fees increases the possibility of supply cuts, and smelting production may decline in April. The positive effect of the consumption peak season is weakening [3] Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options [4]