12月26日，由金融界主办的"启航·2025金融年会"系列活动在北京成功举办。作为年会重磅环节之一，"启航·2025上市公司高质量发展年会"以"穿越周期，韧 性成长"为主题，来自监管部门、行业协会、金融机构等相关领导和重磅嘉宾，以及来自200余家上市公司的优秀企业代表齐聚一堂，共话发展路径，为资本 市场高质量发展赋能，为中国式现代化建设注入持久动能。 当日，2025第十四届金融界"金智奖"年度评选也同步揭晓。该奖项旨在引导上市公司聚焦主业、持续创新、践行社会责任，推动资本向优质企业集聚，海尔 智家、利亚德、金龙鱼、东鹏饮料等140余家企业从超8000家A股、港股和中概股企业中脱颖而出，成为高质量发展典范。 肖耿指出，十五五时期（2025-2030年）是承前启后的关键阶段，企业家面临的最大系统性风险与机会均源于公共政策与地缘政治变化，而全球政治家与各 国政府政策（包括中国五年规划）是主导这些变量的核心力量。企业家需通过理解政策制定规律、支持高质量政策研究，实现风险防范与趋势性机会捕捉。 他强调，十五五规划围绕现代化产业体系、科技自立自强、新质生产力、强大国内市场、高水平对外开放等15个领域提出61条建议，将开启 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market rebounds due to macro - sentiment, with marginal improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policy dynamics. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. The supply - side starts to increase slightly, and the demand - side has mixed performance. Key factors to watch include liquid chlorine price fluctuations, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,757 yuan/ton (- 24), the East China basis is - 277 yuan/ton (+ 24), and the South China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,520 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 986 yuan/ton (+ 116), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 469 yuan/ton (+ 51), and the PVC export profit is - 11.7 US dollars/ton (- 5.7) [1] - **PVC Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (- 1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (- 0.7), the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1] - **Downstream Order Situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+ 11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,233 yuan/ton (- 17), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1 yuan/ton (+ 1) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 715 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,214 yuan/ton (- 16), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 529.4 yuan/ton (- 55.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 222.58 yuan/ton (+ 4.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 423.99 yuan/ton (+ 30.00) [2] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 million tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 million tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.00% (+ 1.50%) [2] - **Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.00% (- 1.11%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.03% (- 2.59%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - **Macro Factors**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft compilation meeting and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost PVC demand expectations. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply decreases slightly due to new and continued device maintenance, but the supply side is still abundant. Downstream start - up decreases slightly, and the export orders remain resilient before the double festivals. Social inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level year - on - year [3] - **Profit and Market Pressure**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit of the upstream PVC has some recovery, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide and semi - coke production are both in the red. The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Caustic Soda - **Price and Inventory**: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. Shandong's inventory pressure is partially relieved, while Jiangsu's caustic soda inventory accumulates [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side start - up rate increases slightly, and the overall start - up is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive but is expected to decline further, which may strengthen the cost support. The alumina plant's demand is relatively stable, while non - aluminum demand weakens [3] Strategy - **PVC**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5] - **Caustic Soda**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5]

南都讯记者杨文君近日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在第十四届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十九次 会议上作报告，汇报了国家发展改革委关于第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议代表建议、批评和意 见办理情况。 全国统一大市场建设的"四梁八柱"已经基本建立 郑栅洁在报告中提到:"以积极回应代表关切为落脚点，着力增强办理实效。" 经全国人大常委会委员长会议审议通过，交由国家发改委牵头办理"稳步推进全国统一大市场建设"重点 督办建议，包含10件具体建议。国家发改委将此作为办理工作的重中之重，以点带面引领提升整体办理 水平。 报告指出，在全国人大财经委指导下，在有关部门大力支持下，先后赴重庆、海南、江苏、广东等地方 开展实地调研，听取有关地方、企业和人大代表的意见建议，深入了解地方融入全国统一大市场建设、 招商引资、统一电力市场建设等有关情况。与有关代表在京座谈，认真研究办理其提出的"关于全面整 治'内卷式'竞争的建议"。 结合重点督办建议诉求和关切，组织实施全国统一大市场建设指引，制定妨碍建设全国统一大市场事项 清单，出台市场准入负面清单(2025年版)，开展招标投标领域突出问题系统整治，规范地方招商引资行 为。 报告提到，截 ...

周红波 同志们： 受市委常委会委托，我就《中共南京市委关于制定南京市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》（以下简称《建议》）起草的有关情况向全会作说明。 《建议》稿起草的总体考虑是，坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神和习近平总书记对江苏工作重要讲话精神，认真落实省委十四届十次全会部 署，准确把握"十五五"时期经济社会发展的阶段性要求，深入分析面临的机遇和挑战，紧扣南京在全国 全省发展大局中的定位，立足南京市情、顺应群众期盼，对"十五五"时期我市发展作出系统谋划和战略 部署。 在《建议》稿起草过程中，我们注意把握以下几点。一是坚持对标对表。深入贯彻落实习近平总书 记对江苏工作重要讲话精神，体现走在前、做示范、挑大梁、作贡献的省会担当，以实际行动坚定拥 护"两个确立"，坚决做到"两个维护"。二是坚持服务大局。主动以南京所能服务国家所需、全省所需， 充分发挥高质量发展区域增长极作用，更好服务国家重大战略实施，更好支撑全省"一中心一基地一枢 纽"建设。三是坚持改革创新。完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，注重运用改革办法破解发展难题，加快 补短板、强弱项，锻长板、扬优势 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].

2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年，市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观，整体预期实际增速在5% 附近，实现压力不大。具体分领域来看： 基建方面，预计呈前高后低走势，增速维持在6.5%附近，温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务； 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下，高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快，叠加出口红利，投资同比预 计在8%附近； 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低，销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄，整体固投呈温和修复趋 势； 回到整个市场的定价上看，一方面，明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观，对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是，我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡，所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大，但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说，明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份，债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格，大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显：配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求，交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益，在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下，成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...

中证A500ETF（159338）12月25日收涨0.17%。 来源：Wind 央行货币政策委员会近日召开第四季度例会，明确要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳 定增长和物价合理回升。当前正处于"十五五"规划开局蓄势关键时期。随着政策红利持续释放，我国经 济总需求有望进一步回暖，经济增长动能切换有望加速推进，巩固资本市场长期向好逻辑。 中证A500指数凭借其对先进制造、信息技术等新质生产力领域的布局，能够比传统宽基指数更精确地 把握产业结构升级机遇。中证A500指数具备行业均衡配置特点，对细分龙头公司的覆盖更广泛，能够 为投资者在震荡整固、盈利逐步兑现的市场环境中，提供兼具安全垫与成长潜力的优质贝塔底盘。感兴 趣的投资者可以关注中证A500ETF（159338），一键布局各行业核心龙头，捕捉市场上涨收益。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能 ...

近日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在第十四届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十九次会议上作报告，汇 报了国家发展改革委关于第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议代表建议、批评和意见办理情况。 郑栅洁指出，今年国家发改委承办的2933件代表建议，主要聚焦基础设施建设、产业发展、社会民生、 绿色低碳发展、"三农"、区域重大战略、改革开放、重大项目等方面。国家发改委认真研究解决这些意 见诉求，积极将好建议纳入政策措施，统筹推动代表建议办理工作和发展改革中心工作互促共进。 国家发展和改革委员会关于 第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议 代表建议、批评和意见办理情况的报告 ——2025年12月22日在第十四届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十九次会议上 国家发展和改革委员会主任 郑栅洁 全国人民代表大会常务委员会： 在推动解决实际问题方面，郑栅洁举例谈道："很多代表建议延长春节假期，我委认真分析研判，积极 推动优化节假日安排，2026年春节放假9天并减少调休，回应了社会期待，增强了人民群众的节日获得 感与幸福感。大数据监测显示，正面及中性情绪占比达到92.9%。" 关于"十五五"规划，郑栅洁指出，国家发改委正在组织拟订"十五五"规划《纲 ...

Group 1 - The core focus for Yancheng High-tech Zone in 2026 is to implement the "Five Major Actions" to drive development, emphasizing reform, innovation, and project execution [1] - The "Major Project Breakthrough" action aims to strengthen key industries such as new generation information technology, high-end equipment, and new energy, while also focusing on future industries like third-generation semiconductors, advanced materials, and artificial intelligence [1] - The "Industrial Scale Leap" action is designed to enhance the scale and quality of industries, with a focus on creating a national-level flexible microelectronics industry cluster and supporting the growth of leading enterprises like Weixin Electronics [1] Group 2 - The "Integration of Science and Industry Empowerment" action seeks to enhance the synergy between technological innovation and industrial development, aiming to establish a national key R&D program for high-tech achievements [2] - The "Urban Economic Doubling" action focuses on coordinated planning of industrial development, urban morphology, and talent needs, promoting the construction of a vibrant integrated demonstration area [2] - The "Park Reform Demonstration" action emphasizes the need for deeper reforms in areas such as investment attraction, industrial cultivation, and technological innovation, aiming to create a stable and transparent business environment [3]

2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，承载着承前启后、谋篇布局的重要使命。当前全球经济形势复杂 多变，地缘冲突频发、贸易保护主义抬头，中国经济如何在风高浪急的外部环境中突围？未来经济增长 动力何在？宏观政策将如何发力？大类资产配置又有哪些机遇？ 对此，近日，国海证券首席经济学家夏磊这样解读了2026年宏观经济展望。 外部环境：风高浪急下的不确定性与新挑战 谈及2026年中国经济面临的外部环境，夏磊指出，美国政策的不确定性成为影响全球经贸秩序的重要变 量。自2025年初特朗普政府上任以来，不断调整关税政策，方向和内容反复多变。以美国对欧盟的关税 政策为例，短短几个月内经历了多次变动，从实施20%"对等关税"，到暂停后保留10%基准关税，再到 计划加征50%关税，最终通过谈判降至15%，这种反复无常的调整给全球贸易带来巨大混乱。 更值得关注的是，美国核心内阁成员在贸易理念上存在明显分歧。贝森特作为"温和派"注重市场反馈， 格里尔作为贸易强硬派不愿在关税上让步，卢特尼克则被称为"内阁中最特朗普式的成员"，三人在贸易 谈判中甚至出现公开冲突，导致美方谈判目标混乱，进一步加剧了国际经贸环境的不确定性。 政策支持力度持 ...