别急着做多原油，在花旗看来，中东局势紧张给了投资者难得的套期保值机会。 据追风交易台消息，花旗在6月13日的报告中认为，在原油市场供应过剩的大背景下，目前因中东地缘政治局势紧张而导致的油价波 动，为投资者提供了难得的套期保值机会。油价下行趋势短时间很难改变，如果美伊核协议达成，油价可能跌至60美元/桶以下。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。以空军对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空 袭。以军称，伊朗拥有足够的浓缩铀，可以在几天内制造出多枚炸弹，因此需要采取行动应对这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。 地缘政治风险仍在可控范围 花旗分析师表示，当前局势可能暂时得到控制。 美国和伊朗仍计划于6月15日在阿曼举行会谈。美国已劝阻以色列不要对伊朗发动攻击。伊朗方面则表示，该国将对西方国家的任何行 动采取 "成比例" 的回应。与10年前不同，许多海湾国家现在支持与伊朗接触并达成核协议。 花旗认为，美伊达成核协议的可能性约为 60%。特朗普、沙特及伊朗盟友倾向于缓和局势，且特朗普希望、需要并可能持续推动压低 油价，以便在局势升级时为美国经济注入通缩动力。 花旗通过分析去年三次地缘政治事件来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current Sino - US talks results lack detailed reports, causing the market to fluctuate with unconfirmed news. Fundamentally, the traditional off - season has arrived, leading to a weakening of some steel demand. However, steel mills maintain production through variety switching due to decent orders and profits. The raw material supply remains abundant, so the fundamental drive for a market rebound is weak. Market macro - sentiment fluctuations may cause the market to oscillate, and the pressure of a weakening off - season fundamental situation is gradually emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for rebar is 2800 - 3100 with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.0%. For hot - rolled coils, it is 2900 - 3200 with a current volatility of 11.37% and a volatility percentile of 9.74% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **High finished - product inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory. For example, sell RB2510 with a 40% hedging ratio at 3000 - 3100 and HC2510 with a 40% ratio at 3120 - 3200. Also, sell call options like RB2510C3200 with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [1]. - **Low procurement inventory**: To avoid rising procurement costs, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures. For instance, buy RB2510 with a 20% ratio at 2850 - 2920 and 2950 - 3030. Sell put options such as RB2510P2700 with a 20% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - **Positive factors**: Total steel inventory is not high, and there are no obvious signs of a significant reduction in hot metal production [3]. - **Negative factors**: The recent rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou has decreased significantly; hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory in many places; steel mills plan a fourth round of coke price cuts; iron ore shipments have increased in the past two weeks; and coal mine inventories remain high [4][5]. 3.4 Price Data - **Futures prices**: On June 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts showed little daily change but some weekly changes. For example, the rebar 10 - contract closing price was 2968, unchanged daily but down 7 weekly [5]. - **Spot prices**: On June 12, 2025, the rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar summary price was 3090, down 20 daily and 10 weekly [5]. 3.5 Other Data - **Hot - rolled coil overseas data**: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in different countries had different weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the Japanese FOB export price dropped from 510 to 495 [6]. - **Basis data**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai showed certain daily and weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 128, up 3 daily and down 21 weekly [6]. - **Spread data**: The month - spreads, roll - rebar spreads, rebar - iron ore ratios, and rebar - coke ratios of rebar and hot - rolled coils had different changes on June 13, 2025. For example, the 01 roll - rebar spread was 117, down 7 weekly [7][8][9].

Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and automation [2] - The company is also a major player in the civil explosives industry, maintaining its competitive position through strategic mergers and the promotion of electronic detonators [2] Market Position - The company has established itself as a core supplier for major global automotive and battery manufacturers, with product quality exceeding national standards [2] - As of 2024, the company ranks fourth in the civil explosives industry, with electronic detonator sales leading the market for several consecutive years [2] Lithium Production Capacity - The company is constructing a new lithium production line, aiming for a total lithium salt capacity of nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025 [3] Customer Structure - Approximately 90% of the company's revenue comes from top clients, including international firms like TESLA and LGES, and domestic companies such as CATL and Zhongtai [4] Resource Security - The company has developed a diversified lithium resource supply chain, including self-controlled and purchased mines, ensuring stable resource availability [5] - The Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe has a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore annually, contributing to domestic production [5][6] Risk Management - In 2024, the company utilized lithium carbonate futures for hedging against price volatility, aiming to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [6] Strategic Measures - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international customer base while optimizing its customer structure [6] - Efforts are being made to enhance the supply of self-owned lithium concentrate and improve procurement management [6] - The company is focused on cost reduction across various operational segments to enhance overall efficiency [6] Overseas Business Development - The company has established a mature platform for overseas investment and trade, with operations in New Zealand, Australia, and Africa [6] - Future plans include expanding into markets in Zimbabwe and Australia to drive growth in the civil explosives sector [6]

E /ATF/Host-up # 郭野 n Ham I 蛋蛋 T WE LEAD BOY DE LEASE THE LEASE m GITKS CHE I CHANA THE THE H 四 098 9 Hum S PENT US SP SOLE ASS 15 ttp:// HB3 011 4332 5/E ative se nam solal FEE n 25 p Hall Ch in . 宁波港北仑国际集装箱码头，红色的桥吊吊臂上下舞动，一艘往返欧美航线的集装箱运输船正在进行装卸作业。在刚刚过去的几个月，国际贸易局势跌宕起 伏，海运和外贸市场首先受到影响。 针对外部市场的不确定性，宁波舟山港通过稳航线、拓市场、调结构、优服务，实现了逆势增长。宁波舟山港股份有限公司董事、副总经理滕亚辉在5月末 举行的海丝港口合作论坛上表示，今年1—4月份，宁波舟山港完成集装箱吞吐量1356.8万标箱，同比增长9.9%。 他表示，在当前中美关税暂缓的窗口期，外贸企业"抢出口"的需求增加，宁波舟山港将继续打好"稳拓调优"组合拳，通过加大仓位供给、加强空箱保障、提 升码头服务、优化口岸环境，更好应对"出货潮"，预计6月中旬各对美 ...

Core Points - The company is preparing for its annual shareholder meeting scheduled for June 19, 2025, with specific guidelines to ensure order and protect shareholder rights [1][2][4] - The meeting will include the review of the 2024 annual report and the board's work report, highlighting the company's performance and strategic direction [6][15] - The company reported a revenue of 32.497 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.114 billion yuan [20][22] Meeting Guidelines - The meeting will have a designated management office to oversee procedures and maintain order [1] - Only authorized participants, including shareholders and company officials, will be allowed entry [1] - Shareholders must present identification for registration on the day of the meeting [1] Voting and Agenda - Voting will be conducted through both on-site and online methods [2][4] - The agenda includes the announcement of the meeting's commencement, review of key proposals, and the election of inspectors [4][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.497 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 2.114 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in profitability [20][22] - The total assets at the end of 2024 were reported at 201.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.375 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [21] - The company's debt ratio improved to 41.48%, down from 44.90% at the beginning of the year [22] Board and Governance - The board of directors held nine meetings in 2024, addressing 51 major topics including strategic planning and investment [7] - The company emphasizes compliance and governance, with ongoing improvements to its internal control systems [12][14] ESG and Sustainability - The company has launched an ESG strategy with specific goals and measures to enhance its sustainability practices [11] - It received recognition for its ESG efforts, including awards for best practices in sustainable development [11]

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanhua Capital completed its first over-the-counter options transaction for casting aluminum alloy, showcasing its rapid response capability and innovative advantages in industrial financial services [1] - Shuaiyichi New Materials Group Co., Ltd. focuses on the research, production, and sales of green, low-carbon recycled aluminum alloy materials, with a maximum annual production capacity of 1 million tons and over 400,000 tons of recycled aluminum utilized annually [2] - Nanhua Futures (603093) is a leading comprehensive service provider of derivatives in China, committed to helping enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency through the use of on-exchange and off-exchange derivative tools [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - China is a major player in the global aluminum industry, with an estimated casting aluminum alloy (recycled) production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a production volume of about 6.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 26.2% of global output [3] - The industry faces structural challenges, including tight upstream scrap aluminum supply increasing costs and intense price competition in downstream products compressing profit margins, alongside demand contraction and high inventory levels [3] - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures provides industry chain enterprises with more precise risk management tools, aiding in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options contracts for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, to support China's dual carbon strategy and enhance the industry's risk management tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys in China is projected to be approximately 6.73 million tons [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Casting aluminum alloys are characterized by low density, high strength, good corrosion resistance, and excellent castability, making them widely used in automotive, motorcycle, machinery, communication equipment, electronics, and hardware lighting sectors [1] Group 3: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations [1] - The contracts will facilitate physical delivery, expanding the spot circulation channels for enterprises [1] Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - The initial listing benchmark price for the casting aluminum alloy contracts is set at 18,365 CNY per ton, with trading units of 10 tons and delivery units of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt [2] - Initial reasonable valuation for the contracts is estimated to be between 19,000 and 20,000 CNY per ton based on current market prices [2] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloys is concentrated, with over 60% used in the automotive sector, 7% in home appliances, and 10% in motorcycles and electric vehicles [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, with peak demand from September to December and January of the following year, while the off-peak season typically occurs from May to August [3] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum shows seasonal trends, with the price difference typically ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 CNY per ton [3] - The correlation between aluminum alloy spot prices and primary aluminum spot prices can be utilized for effective price risk management [4]

Industry Overview - The current copper industry chain in China is facing challenges characterized by "tight raw material imports, severe smelting competition, and difficult processing survival" [1] - Copper prices have shown a "roller coaster" trend this year, with the main futures contract experiencing significant fluctuations, reaching a peak before a sharp decline [2] - Analysts predict that copper prices will fluctuate between 75,000 to 83,000 yuan/ton in the coming month, with a strong resistance to decline in the medium to long term [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core contradiction in the recent high-level copper price fluctuations is the "strong reality versus weak expectations" [2] - Domestic social inventory is at a historically low level, and actual copper consumption in China remains strong, supported by investments in power grids, home appliances, and new energy sectors [2] - Supply-side challenges include ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and expectations of production cuts at overseas smelting plants [2][3] Profitability and Business Strategies - The copper industry chain is currently under pressure, with upstream mining companies facing rising costs, midstream smelting companies forced to reduce production due to negative processing fees, and downstream processing companies struggling with unstable overseas trade [4] - Companies are adopting strategies such as exploring domestic and international copper resource supply sources and expanding recycled copper resources to ensure supply chain reliability [4] - The proportion of high-end products in copper processing is expected to increase significantly, with high-end products projected to account for 28% of total copper processing materials by 2025, up from 12% in 2020 [4][5] Transition to High-End Products - The copper processing industry is accelerating its transition to high-end products, with companies like Jintian Co. focusing on new energy sectors and advanced technologies [6] - The demand for high-purity copper and environmentally friendly products is increasing, necessitating continuous R&D and product iteration to meet higher technical requirements from downstream clients [6][7] - Jintian Co. employs a pricing strategy based on "raw material prices + processing fees," with profits primarily derived from processing fees [6] Risk Management - To mitigate risks associated with copper price fluctuations, companies like Jintian Co. engage in hedging based on order and production needs [7] - Commodity trading service providers are also playing a role in optimizing inventory, capacity, and risk management for enterprises in the industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - PTA plays a critical role in the petrochemical and fiber industries, acting as a bridge between upstream and downstream sectors, with its price influenced by both upstream crude oil and downstream polyester demand [2] Group 1: Production Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, global PTA capacity is projected to be approximately 110 million tons, with China accounting for over 85 million tons, representing about 75% of global capacity [3] - By 2025, global PTA capacity is expected to reach 116.25 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.7%, while demand is only forecasted at 97.33 million tons, indicating potential overcapacity for PTA producers [3] - To ensure stable operations, PTA producers need to utilize PTA futures or options for hedging to lock in sales prices and smooth profit fluctuations [3] - Since mid-May 2023, PTA supply has gradually recovered, but polyester operating rates have declined, leading to weaker inventory reduction and a high risk of price retraction [3][4] - The current PTA spot processing profit is at a relatively high level, but there is a risk of future decline [3] Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Producers can use futures to lock in processing profits by selling PTA futures contracts when processing fees are high, allowing them to realize profit targets [4] - The non-linear profit and loss characteristics of PTA options allow for more personalized profit structures, with strategies like the long call spread being commonly used [5] - The long call spread strategy provides downside protection, cost hedging, and caps potential profits, balancing limited risk with limited reward [5] Group 3: Demand Enterprises - For PTA demand enterprises, rising PTA prices directly increase costs, impacting profit expectations [11] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to short-term increases in crude oil prices, further pressuring procurement costs [11] - Demand enterprises can use PTA options to manage procurement costs and mitigate short-term price fluctuations [11][12] - The current PTA2509 contract price is 4674 yuan/ton, while the spot price in East China is 4865 yuan/ton, indicating a basis of 191 yuan/ton [12] - Compared to futures hedging, buying PTA call options requires less capital and is more suitable for enterprises with tight cash flow [13] Group 4: Strategy Comparison - The protective buy call option strategy is more effective in volatile price environments, allowing enterprises to hedge against rising procurement costs while benefiting from price declines [16] - The strategy's effectiveness can be optimized by constructing it during stable implied volatility periods before significant events [16] - PTA options play a key role in risk management across the industry chain, with production enterprises using long call spread strategies to lock in processing profits, while demand enterprises utilize protective buy call strategies for cost management [16]

Group 1 - SMIC (中芯国际) closed at 84.56 yuan on June 6, 2025, up 3.01% from 82.09 yuan the previous week, with a market cap of 675.29 billion yuan, ranking 1st in the semiconductor sector and 18th in the A-share market [1] - The highest intraday price for SMIC on June 6 was 85.0 yuan, while the lowest was 81.37 yuan [1] Group 2 - SMIC will hold its 2025 Annual General Meeting on June 27, 2025, at 14:00 in Shanghai, with both in-person and online voting options available [2] - The agenda includes reviewing the 2024 annual report, re-election of directors, reappointment of auditors, profit distribution plan for 2024, and proposals for hedging activities and share buybacks [2][3] - The record date for shareholders is June 23, 2025, and shareholders must provide identification and authorization documents for registration [2] Group 3 - SMIC's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to sell a 14.832% stake in SMIC Integrated Circuit (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. to Hunan Guoke Microelectronics Co., Ltd., with the transaction price based on an asset appraisal [4] - The payment will be made through a combination of issuing shares and cash, with the share price set at 57.01 yuan per share, not less than 80% of the market reference price [4] - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring and does not require approval from SMIC's shareholders [4]