大家好，今晚泰勒真的无眠，因为要等待美联储降息。北京时间周四凌晨，美联储预计将再次降息，但这很可能是近期最后一次降息行 动。 12月10日晚间，美股三大指数涨跌不一，道指微涨，纳指、标普指数下跌。 投资者越来越认为这将是一场"鹰派式降息"。高盛的分析师认为，美联储有三种关键方式来传递这种信息： 在决议声明中，对进一步降息设置更高门槛，暗示未来继续降息的条件更苛刻； 美联储的议息日，这次决策层内部的分歧格外严重。再降一次25个基点的概率依然很高，但美联储内部这种深层分裂的情况，以及主席 鲍威尔如何对外阐释决策思路，都可能在今日稍晚引发剧烈的市场波动。 投资者将密切关注鲍威尔的每一句话，重点放在最新的点阵图和经济预测上。市场担忧情绪升温——这可能是一场"鹰派式降息"，即一 边降息、一边暗示后续宽松空间有限。 投资者对明年继续降息的信心有所减弱，部分原因在于凯文·哈塞特（被视为最有可能接替鲍威尔的人选）近期言论偏谨慎。 哈塞特周二表示，如果自己最终出任主席，不会屈服于任何要求降息的政治压力。特朗普已表示，希望下一任主席在立场上"坚定支持 降息"，并计划在接下来几天进行最后一轮面试。 分析师表示，尽管美联储周三几乎肯 ...

Summary of The Bank of New York Mellon Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: The Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) - **Date**: December 10, 2025 - **Speaker**: Dermot McDonogh, CFO Key Points 1. Business Performance and Momentum - BNY Mellon experienced solid momentum in 2025, with accelerating organic growth and better-than-expected net interest income (NII) [1][2] - The stock price increased over 40% year-to-date, reflecting positive performance and shareholder returns [1] 2. Strategic Focus for 2026 - The company is focused on maintaining strong momentum and executing its strategic pillars laid out over the past three years [2][3] - Key areas of focus include enhancing the commercial model and operationalizing the "1BNY" strategy to improve client engagement and retention [3][4] 3. Commercial Model and Client Engagement - The commercial model has been a significant driver of growth, with efforts to do more with the existing client base [4][5] - The Platform Operating Model is being implemented, with 75% of the firm already integrated, leading to improved growth and productivity [5] 4. Organic Revenue Growth - Organic revenue growth was approximately 4% in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued improvement [6][7] - BNY Mellon has a diversified business model, with some segments performing exceptionally well while others are in transformation phases [8][9] 5. Digital Assets and Innovation - BNY Mellon is positioning itself as a bridge between traditional finance and digital ecosystems, with ongoing investments in digital asset custody and product innovation [20][21] - The firm anticipates that digital assets will become increasingly material to its revenue in the medium term [22][23] 6. Inorganic Growth and M&A - The company does not prioritize inorganic growth for its strategic ambitions, focusing instead on internal execution and transformation [12][13] - BNY Mellon remains open to evaluating M&A opportunities but maintains a high cultural and financial bar for any potential deals [14] 7. Asset Servicing Business - The asset servicing business is the largest fee pool and is expected to deliver the fastest growth in nearly a decade, driven by macro factors and improved client service [15][16] - Leadership and cultural changes have positively impacted the asset servicing business, leading to increased market share [17][18] 8. Investment and Wealth Management (IWM) - The IWM segment has faced organic growth challenges, but recent strategic hires and a focus on efficiency are expected to improve performance [30][31] - BNY Mellon aims to return this segment to mid-20s growth in the medium term [31] 9. Financial Dynamics and Expense Management - The firm is on track to deliver over 35% pre-tax margins, with a focus on positive operating leverage and disciplined expense management [32][33] - The company has achieved approximately $500 million in efficiencies annually and plans to continue investing in growth opportunities [32][33] 10. Capital Returns - BNY Mellon has maintained a capital-like business model, with a capital return strategy of around 100% payout expected to continue into 2026 [42][43] - The firm generated a 28% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) in recent quarters, reflecting strong financial health [42] 11. Outlook for 2026 - The company is optimistic about its ability to grow NII and maintain strong deposit performance, with expectations for mid-single-digit growth in Q4 [37][41] - BNY Mellon is preparing for potential changes in the economic environment, including Fed policy impacts on deposits [41] Additional Insights - The firm is focused on enhancing its technological capabilities and client service offerings, particularly in the digital asset space [20][21] - There is a strong emphasis on collaboration across different business units to leverage the full capabilities of BNY Mellon for client benefit [28][29]

新华社北京12月10日电 题：美联储持续降息缘何"不灵" 美国联邦储备委员会定于10日货币政策例会后公布议息决定。芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具最新数 据显示，美联储在12月货币政策会议上降息25个基点的概率接近90%，降息已是市场普遍预期。 美联储去年9月开启降息周期，至今年11月已累计降息150个基点。不过，由于就业市场和通胀目标极难 平衡，以及对人工智能（AI）投资热潮泡沫化的担忧，降息这一"工具"正越来越"不灵"。 通胀就业两头难顾 美联储两大使命是促进充分就业和维持物价稳定，然而在今年10月的货币政策会议上，美联储官员当时 已就12月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧。 特朗普主张加快降息，压低债券收益率，带动各类贷款利率下行，但债券市场似乎"并不买账"。彭博社 9日报道，美国10年期国债收益率已从今年10月低点上升逾20个基点，这在美联储可能再次降息背景下 颇为反常。 对冲基金巨头英仕曼集团首席市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀指出，相比偏好宽松货币政策的股票投资 者，债券投资者更关注财政可持续性和美联储独立性。"下调联邦基金利率不能确保长期利率走低。" 彭博社日前援引知情人士说法报道，在特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中 ...

据韩联社12月7日报道，韩国全南大学宣布成功研发多项融合人工智能（AI）的6G物理层原创技术，包 括神经解码器、图神经网络波束赋形等核心成果。相关研究可保障超低延迟与超高可靠性通信环境下的 稳定传输，已在国际权威SCI期刊发表5篇论文。团队与韩国电子通信研究院合作，已向国际6G标准化 会议提交技术提案。研究团队表示，6G标志着通信进入"AI自主学习网络"的智能时代，未来将拓展AI 无线接入网、AI原生网络等方向研究。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 扎克伯格指示Meta Platforms远离开源人工智能（AI）。 META的Wangle有时对扎克伯格的微观管理感 到沮丧。 META正在开发代号为"牛油果"（AVOCADO）的模型，可能会进行收费。 知情人士称， META使用了阿里巴巴的通义千问（QWEN）来优化其新的 AI 模型。（彭博） 风险提示及免责条款 ...

近日，第三版《全球商务区吸引力报告》（2025 Global Business Districts Report）在法国巴黎和北京 同步发布。该报告由全球商务区创新联合会（Global Business Districts Innovation Club）发起，安永 （EY）与城市土地学会（ULI）共同编制，是当前全球范围内最具权威性和国际影响力的商务区综合评 估研究成果。 自2017年首次发布以来，该报告已成为各国商务区管理者、企业决策者及城市研究机构分析全球商务区 竞争力与发展趋势的重要参照。2025年版报告延续前两版研究框架，对来自全球19个国家的30个商务区 的活力、演进与吸引力进行系统评估，涵盖人才、市场接近度、影响力、外部条件、办公空间、消费活 力、创新与可持续性等关键领域。研究基于详实的数据分析和专家洞察，并吸纳了全球250余位专业人 士的意见，包括商务区内企业、建筑师、开发商和投资者等。 一、30个全球商务区表现分析 此次报告对全球30个领先商务区展开系统评估，共涵盖八大类别、80余个指标与2,400余项数据点，总 排名榜单全面呈现了全球商务区吸引力的最新格局与演变路径。 亚洲板块整体上扬，成 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the "rate cut trade," with nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut in December, up from about 30% three weeks ago [2] - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market indicators are weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% for three consecutive months, and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 2022 [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, and the banking system's reserves have dropped to $2.9 trillion, raising expectations for a potential resumption of balance sheet expansion to enhance market liquidity [4][5] Group 2 - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally" in December, historically a strong month for the stock market [6] - The Nasdaq 100 index has a higher average return in December compared to its annual average, with a 1.7% average increase, while the Russell 2000 index shows even stronger performance with a 2.3% average return [7] - Wall Street remains optimistic about the market outlook for 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points signifies a new height in the adaptability of China's capital market to technological innovation, driven by a solid foundation of policy support, technological empowerment, and capital resonance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market rally is characterized by structural features, relying on technology rather than short-term speculation in traditional industries [1] - The dual empowerment mechanism has matured, with reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market facilitating financing for hard-tech companies, directing capital towards key areas like AI computing power and semiconductors [1] Group 2: Role of Technology - Technology plays a core role in the current market dynamics, with the rapid development of AI and other technologies driving investor expectations and market performance [3] - The capital market is crucial for the development of technology, as tech companies often do not generate stable cash flows initially, making venture capital (VC) essential for their growth [4][5] Group 3: Financing Mechanisms - Equity financing, including VC and private equity (PE), has matured in China, allowing for risk-sharing and revenue-sharing, which is particularly beneficial for startups [6] - The current focus on VC and PE as primary forms of "patient capital" is essential for supporting innovation, although challenges remain in attracting socialized funding for long-term investments [8] Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - The company anticipates significant investment opportunities in AI across all sectors, particularly in embodied intelligence and its applications in healthcare and low-altitude economy technologies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has risen to nearly 90% from about 30% three weeks ago, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75% [2]. - Concerns about the labor market are driving the rationale for rate cuts, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, with bank reserves at $2.9 trillion, leading to speculation about the potential resumption of quantitative easing to enhance market liquidity [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically outperformed other indices in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, and if it records positive returns, the average gain could rise to 6% [6]. - The Russell 2000 index has shown even stronger performance, with a December average return of 2.3% and a monthly average positive return of 4.3%, indicating its stability and potential for higher returns compared to major benchmarks [6]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market heading into 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points, supported by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [7]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7100 points, citing concerns over liquidity and the shift in capital expenditure priorities [8]. - There is a consensus among institutions regarding the ongoing earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].